23 resultados para Extreme value theory
em BORIS: Bern Open Repository and Information System - Berna - Suiça
Resumo:
There are close links between emotions and values, or at least this is what our ordinary ways of talking suggest. For many, if not all, types of emotion it is thus possible to find a corresponding evaluative term, one often derived from the name of the emotion in question. These are for example evaluative terms such as ‘shameful’, ‘offensive, ‘annoying’, ‘dangerous’, ‘contemptible’, ‘admirable’, ‘amusing’, ‘exciting’, ‘boring’, and the like. Starting perhaps from these linguistic observations, the philosophical task is of course to elucidate the nature of the links between emotions and values, and attempts at doing so have traditionally revolved around the following three questions: first, what is the role of emotions in elucidating the nature of value? For example, should dangerousness be understood in term of the fear response? Second, what is the role of emotions in our getting access to values? For example, what may be the role of fear in becoming aware that a given animal is dangerous? Third, what value do emotions have? For example, is fear of special value because it helps behaving appropriately towards its object? We hall take up these questions in turn and survey the most important answers they have received in the literature. As we shall discover, answering the first question amounts to surveying a variety of theories according to which there is an ontological relation between values and emotions since the former should be elucidated in terms of the latter (Sec. 1). Addressing the second question consists in reviewing theories according to which there is an intentional relation between emotions and values because the former are apprehensions of value or evaluations (Sec. 2). Grappling with the third question, we shall explore some reasons for thinking that emotions can exemplify values (Sec. 3).
Resumo:
While many studies confirm that positive emotions, including enjoyment, lead to better student achievement, less empirical evidence exists about possible mediator variables that link achievement to enjoyment. It is proposed that achievement and enjoyment form a circular dependency; enjoyment in learning leads to higher achievement but a degree of achievement is required to enjoy learning. This study provides insight into the reverse of the much studied enjoyment to achievement link and provides practical recommendations on how to use these findings. Founded in Control-value theory, which suggests that control and value cognitions are important variables that mediate the connection between enjoyment and achievement, this study explores the reciprocal achievement-cognition-enjoyment link. The reciprocal link was investigated by applying a one year longitudinal design to students of grade 6 and 7 (N = 356). This age group was chosen because early adolescence represents a critical period during which a strong decrease in positive learning emotions is observed. Part of the work involved identifying factors that might be responsible for this negative development. Results of cross-lagged path analysis identified reciprocal effects between student achievement and enjoyment with control and value cognitions functioning as partial mediators. High achievement goes with high control and value cognitions, which in turn positively affect enjoyment. However, cross-lagged correlations could only be partly confirmed. The results are discussed in terms of theoretical and practical implications.
Resumo:
Im Rahmen einer Längsschnittstudie wurde untersucht, wie sich die schulische Lernfreude bei österreichischen Hauptschülern und Hauptschülerinnen zwischen der 6. und 7. Schulstufe (N = 356) entwickelt. Des Weiteren wurde die Rolle von Kontroll- und Valenzkognitionen, die gemäß der Kontroll-Wert-Theorie (Pekrun, 2000, 2006) für das Entstehen der schulischen Lernfreude zentral sein sollten, geprüft. Als Methoden zur Erfassung der habituellen und aktuellen Merkmale kamen Fragebögen und Tagebücher zum Einsatz. Die Ergebnisse belegen den Rückgang der Lernfreude während dieses von Fend (1997) als «kritisch» bezeichneten Schuljahres. Ebenso erweisen sich hohe Kontrollkognitionen und positive Valenzkognitionen als bedeutsam für die schulische Lernfreude, sie schützen jedoch nicht vor ihrem Rückgang. Der Zusammenhang von Lernfreude und Kognitionen bedarf daher weiterer Klärung.
Resumo:
In recent decades, extremely hazardous windstorms have caused enormous losses to buildings, infrastructure and forests in Switzerland. This has increased societal and scientific interest in the intensity and frequency of historical high-impact storms. However, high-resolution wind data and damage statistics mostly span recent decades only. For this study, we collected quantitative (e.g., volumes of windfall timber, losses relating to buildings) and descriptive (e.g., forestry or insurance reports) information on the impact of historical windstorms. To define windstorm severity, normalized and declustered quantitative data were processed by extreme value statistics. Descriptive information was classified using a conceptual guideline. Validation with independent damage information, as well as comparison with wind measurements and a reanalysis, indicates that the most hazardous winter storms are captured, while too few moderate windstorms are detected. Strong storms in the wind measurements and reanalysis are thus added to the catalog. The final catalog encompasses approximately 240 high-impact windstorms in Switzerland since 1859. It features three robust severity classes and contains eight extreme windstorms. Evidence of high winter storm activity in the early and late 20th century compared to the mid-20th century in both damage and wind data indicates a co-variability of hazard and related damage on decadal timescales.
Resumo:
While many studies confirm that positive emotions, including enjoyment, lead to better student achievement, less empirical evidence exists about possible mediator variables that link achievement to enjoyment. It is proposed that achievement and enjoyment form a circular dependency; enjoyment in learning leads to higher achievement but a degree of achievement is required to enjoy learning. This study provides insight into the reverse of the much studied enjoyment to achievement link and provides practical recommendations on how to use these findings. Founded in Control-value theory, which suggests that control and value cognitions are important variables that mediate the connection between enjoyment and achievement, this study explores the reciprocal achievement-cognition-enjoyment link. The reciprocal link was investigated by applying a one year longitudinal design to students of grade 6 and 7 (N = 356). This age group was chosen because early adolescence represents a critical period during which a strong decrease in positive learning emotions is observed. Part of the work involved identifying factors that might be responsible for this negative development. Results of cross-lagged path analysis identified reciprocal effects between student achievement and enjoyment with control and value cognitions functioning as partial mediators. High achievement goes with high control and value cognitions, which in turn positively affect enjoyment. However, cross-lagged correlations could only be partly confirmed. The results are discussed in terms of theoretical and practical implications
Resumo:
We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October–March) at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950–2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series). Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin) have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series) is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa) has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus) show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous ascent motions and an increase of the low- to mid-tropospheric moisture. Furthermore, the jet stream position (during ≥5-year return level events) supports the eastern basin being in a divergence area, where ascent motions are favoured. Our results contribute to an improved understanding of daily precipitation extremes in the cold season and associated large scale atmospheric features.
Resumo:
High altitude periodic breathing (PB) shares some common pathophysiologic aspects with sleep apnea, Cheyne-Stokes respiration and PB in heart failure patients. Methods that allow quantifying instabilities of respiratory control provide valuable insights in physiologic mechanisms and help to identify therapeutic targets. Under the hypothesis that high altitude PB appears even during physical activity and can be identified in comparison to visual analysis in conditions of low SNR, this study aims to identify PB by characterizing the respiratory pattern through the respiratory volume signal. A number of spectral parameters are extracted from the power spectral density (PSD) of the volume signal, derived from respiratory inductive plethysmography and evaluated through a linear discriminant analysis. A dataset of 34 healthy mountaineers ascending to Mt. Muztagh Ata, China (7,546 m) visually labeled as PB and non periodic breathing (nPB) is analyzed. All climbing periods within all the ascents are considered (total climbing periods: 371 nPB and 40 PB). The best crossvalidated result classifying PB and nPB is obtained with Pm (power of the modulation frequency band) and R (ratio between modulation and respiration power) with an accuracy of 80.3% and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 84.5%. Comparing the subjects from 1(st) and 2(nd) ascents (at the same altitudes but the latter more acclimatized) the effect of acclimatization is evaluated. SaO(2) and periodic breathing cycles significantly increased with acclimatization (p-value < 0.05). Higher Pm and higher respiratory frequencies are observed at lower SaO(2), through a significant negative correlation (p-value < 0.01). Higher Pm is observed at climbing periods visually labeled as PB with > 5 periodic breathing cycles through a significant positive correlation (p-value < 0.01). Our data demonstrate that quantification of the respiratory volume signal using spectral analysis is suitable to identify effects of hypobaric hypoxia on control of breathing.
Resumo:
We examine the impact of identity preferences on the interrelation between incentives and performance measurement. In our model, a manager identifies with an organization and loses utility to the extent that his actions conflict with effort-standards issued by the principal. Contrary to prior arguments in the literature, we find conditions under which a manager who identifies strongly with the organization receives stronger incentives and faces more performance evaluation reports than a manager who does not identify with the organization. Our theory predicts that managers who experience events that boost their identification with the firm can decrease their effort in short-term value creation. We also find that firms are more likely to employ less precise but more congruent performance measures, such as stock prices, when contracting with managers who identify little with the organization. In contrast, they use more precise but less congruent measures, such as accounting earnings, when contracting with managers who identify strongly with the firm.
Resumo:
According to Bandura (1997) efficacy beliefs are a primary determinant of motivation. Still, very little is known about the processes through which people integrate situational factors to form efficacy beliefs (Myers & Feltz, 2007). The aim of this study was to gain insight into the cognitive construction of subjective group-efficacy beliefs. Only with a sound understanding of those processes is there a sufficient base to derive psychological interventions aimed at group-efficacy beliefs. According to cognitive theories (e.g., Miller, Galanter, & Pribram, 1973) individual group-efficacy beliefs can be seen as the result of a comparison between the demands of a group task and the resources of the performing group. At the center of this comparison are internally represented structures of the group task and plans to perform it. The empirical plausibility of this notion was tested using functional measurement theory (Anderson, 1981). Twenty-three students (M = 23.30 years; SD = 3.39; 35 % females) of the University of Bern repeatedly judged the efficacy of groups in different group tasks. The groups consisted of the subjects and another one to two fictive group members. The latter were manipulated by their value (low, medium, high) in task-relevant abilities. Data obtained from multiple full factorial designs were structured with individuals as second level units and analyzed using mixed linear models. The task-relevant abilities of group members, specified as fixed factors, all had highly significant effects on subjects’ group-efficacy judgments. The effect sizes of the ability factors showed to be dependent on the respective abilities’ importance in a given task. In additive tasks (Steiner, 1972) group resources were integrated in a linear fashion whereas significant interaction between factors was obtained in interdependent tasks. The results also showed that people take into account other group members’ efficacy beliefs when forming their own group-efficacy beliefs. The results support the notion that personal group-efficacy beliefs are obtained by comparing the demands of a task with the performing groups’ resources. Psychological factors such as other team members’ efficacy beliefs are thereby being considered task relevant resources and affect subjective group-efficacy beliefs. This latter finding underlines the adequacy of multidimensional measures. While the validity of collective efficacy measures is usually estimated by how well they predict performances, the results of this study allow for a somewhat internal validity criterion. It is concluded that Information Integration Theory holds potential to further help understand people’s cognitive functioning in sport relevant situations.