Tropical cyclone-related socio-economic losses in the western North Pacific region

The western North Pacific (WNP) is the area of the world most frequently affected by tropical cyclones (TCs). However, little is known about the socio-economic impacts of TCs in this region, probably because of the limited relevant loss data. Here, loss data from Munich RE's NatCatSERVICE database is used, a high-quality and widely consulted database of natural disasters. In the country-level loss normalisation technique we apply, the original loss data are normalised to present-day exposure levels by using the respective country's nominal gross domestic product at purchasing power parity as a proxy for wealth. The main focus of our study is on the question of whether the decadal-scale TC variability observed in the Northwest Pacific region in recent decades can be shown to manifest itself economically in an associated variability in losses. It is shown that since 1980 the frequency of TC-related loss events in the WNP exhibited, apart from seasonal and interannual variations, interdecadal variability with a period of about 22 yr – driven primarily by corresponding variations of Northwest Pacific TCs. Compared to the long-term mean, the number of loss events was found to be higher (lower) by 14% (9%) in the positive (negative) phase of the decadal-scale WNP TC frequency variability. This was identified for the period 1980–2008 by applying a wavelet analysis technique. It was also possible to demonstrate the same low-frequency variability in normalised direct economic losses from TCs in the WNP region. The identification of possible physical mechanisms responsible for the observed decadal-scale Northwest Pacific TC variability will be the subject of future research, even if suggestions have already been made in earlier studies.

IMILAST: A community effort to intercompare extratropical cyclone detection and tracking algorithms: assessing method-related uncertainties

The variability of results from different automated methods of detection and tracking of extratropical cyclones is assessed in order to identify uncertainties related to the choice of method. Fifteen international teams applied their own algorithms to the same dataset - the period 1989-2009 of interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERAInterim) data. This experiment is part of the community project Intercomparison of Mid Latitude Storm Diagnostics (IMILAST; see www.proclim.ch/imilast/index.html). The spread of results for cyclone frequency, intensity, life cycle, and track location is presented to illustrate the impact of using different methods. Globally, methods agree well for geographical distribution in large oceanic regions, interannual variability of cyclone numbers, geographical patterns of strong trends, and distribution shape for many life cycle characteristics. In contrast, the largest disparities exist for the total numbers of cyclones, the detection of weak cyclones, and distribution in some densely populated regions. Consistency between methods is better for strong cyclones than for shallow ones. Two case studies of relatively large, intense cyclones reveal that the identification of the most intense part of the life cycle of these events is robust between methods, but considerable differences exist during the development and the dissolution phases.

Are Greenhouse Gas Signals of Northern Hemisphere winter extra-tropical cyclone activity dependent on the identification and tracking algorithm?

For Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical cyclone activity, the dependency of a potential anthropogenic climate change signal on the identification method applied is analysed. This study investigates the impact of the used algorithm on the changing signal, not the robustness of the climate change signal itself. Using one single transient AOGCM simulation as standard input for eleven state-of-the-art identification methods, the patterns of model simulated present day climatologies are found to be close to those computed from re-analysis, independent of the method applied. Although differences in the total number of cyclones identified exist, the climate change signals (IPCC SRES A1B) in the model run considered are largely similar between methods for all cyclones. Taking into account all tracks, decreasing numbers are found in the Mediterranean, the Arctic in the Barents and Greenland Seas, the mid-latitude Pacific and North America. Changing patterns are even more similar, if only the most severe systems are considered: the methods reveal a coherent statistically significant increase in frequency over the eastern North Atlantic and North Pacific. We found that the differences between the methods considered are largely due to the different role of weaker systems in the specific methods.

ABCtoolbox: a versatile toolkit for approximate Bayesian computations

Background The estimation of demographic parameters from genetic data often requires the computation of likelihoods. However, the likelihood function is computationally intractable for many realistic evolutionary models, and the use of Bayesian inference has therefore been limited to very simple models. The situation changed recently with the advent of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) algorithms allowing one to obtain parameter posterior distributions based on simulations not requiring likelihood computations. Results Here we present ABCtoolbox, a series of open source programs to perform Approximate Bayesian Computations (ABC). It implements various ABC algorithms including rejection sampling, MCMC without likelihood, a Particle-based sampler and ABC-GLM. ABCtoolbox is bundled with, but not limited to, a program that allows parameter inference in a population genetics context and the simultaneous use of different types of markers with different ploidy levels. In addition, ABCtoolbox can also interact with most simulation and summary statistics computation programs. The usability of the ABCtoolbox is demonstrated by inferring the evolutionary history of two evolutionary lineages of Microtus arvalis. Using nuclear microsatellites and mitochondrial sequence data in the same estimation procedure enabled us to infer sex-specific population sizes and migration rates and to find that males show smaller population sizes but much higher levels of migration than females. Conclusion ABCtoolbox allows a user to perform all the necessary steps of a full ABC analysis, from parameter sampling from prior distributions, data simulations, computation of summary statistics, estimation of posterior distributions, model choice, validation of the estimation procedure, and visualization of the results.

Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213) and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959). For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

Assessment of estrogenic exposure in brown trout (Salmo trutta) in a Swiss midland river: integrated analysis of passive samplers, wild and caged fish, and vitellogenin mRNA and protein

This field study examined the vitellogenin (VTG) biomarker response under conditions of low and fluctuating activities of environmental estrogenicity. The present study was performed on immature brown trout (Salmo trutta) exposed to the small river Luetzelmurg, which is located in the prealpine Swiss midland region and receives effluents from a single sewage treatment plant (STP). To understand better factors influencing the relationship between estrogenic exposure and VTG induction, we compared VTG levels in caged (stationary) and feral (free-ranging) fish, VTG levels in fish from up- and downstream of the STP, and two different methods for quantifying VTG (enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay vs real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction), and we used passive samplers (polar organic chemical integrative sampler [POCIS]) to integrate the variable, bioaccumulative estrogenic load in the river water over time. The POCIS from the downstream site contained approximately 20-fold higher levels of bioassay-derived estrogen equivalents than the POCIS from the upstream site. In feral fish, this site difference in estrogenic exposure was reflected in VTG protein levels but not in VTG mRNA. In contrast, in caged fish, the site difference was evident only for VTG mRNA but not for VTG protein. Thus, the outcome of VTG biomarker measurements varied with the analytical detection method (protein vs mRNA) and with the exposure modus (caged vs feral). Our findings suggest that for environmental situations with low and variable estrogenic contamination, a multiple-assessment approach may be necessary for the assessment of estrogenic exposure in fish.

The Samoa Hurricane, 15-16 March 1889

Analysing historical weather extremes such as the tropical cyclone in Samoa in March 1889 could add to our understanding of extreme events. However, up to now the availability of suitable data was limiting the analysis of historical extremes, particularly in remote regions. The new “Twentieth Century Reanalysis” (20CR), which provides six-hourly, three-dimensional data for the entire globe back to 1871, might provide the means to study this and other early events. While its suitability for studying historical extremes has been analysed for events in the northern extratropics (see other papers in this volume), the representation of tropical cyclones, especially in early times, remains unknown. The aim of this paper is to study to the hurricane that struck Samoa on 15-16 March 1889. We analyse the event in 20CR as well as in contemporary observations. We find that the event is not reproduced in the ensemble mean of 20CR, nor is it within the ensemble spread. We argue that this is due to the paucity of data assimilated into 20CR. A preliminary compilation of historical observations from ships for that period, in contrast, provides a relatively consistent picture of the event. This shows that more observations would be available and implies that future versions of surface-based reanalyses might profit from digitizing further observations in the tropical region.

Investigating the sensitivity of hurricane intensity and trajectory to sea surface temperatures using the regional model WRF

The influence of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies on the hurricane characteristics are investigated in a set of sensitivity experiments employing the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The idealised experiments are performed for the case of Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The first set of sensitivity experiments with basin-wide changes of the SST magnitude shows that the intensity goes along with changes in the SST, i.e., an increase in SST leads to an intensification of Katrina. Additionally, the trajectory is shifted to the west (east), with increasing (decreasing) SSTs. The main reason is a strengthening of the background flow. The second set of experiments investigates the influence of Loop Current eddies idealised by localised SST anomalies. The intensity of Hurricane Katrina is enhanced with increasing SSTs close to the core of a tropical cyclone. Negative nearby SST anomalies reduce the intensity. The trajectory only changes if positive SST anomalies are located west or north of the hurricane centre. In this case the hurricane is attracted by the SST anomaly which causes an additional moisture source and increased vertical winds.

Influence of an electromagnetic field on high dilutions measured by ultraviolet light spectroscopy

Background: High dilutions of various starting materials, e.g. copper sulfate, Hypericum perforatum and sulfur, showed significant differences from controls and amongst different dilution levels in ultraviolet light (UV) transmission [1,2]. Exposure of high dilutions to external physical factors such as UV light or elevated temperature (37°C) also yielded significantly different UV transmissions compared to unexposed dilutions [2,3]. In a study with highland frogs it was shown that animals incubated with thyroxine 30c but not with thyroxine 30c exposed to electromagnetic fields (EMFs) of a microwave oven or mobile phone metamorphosed more slowly than control animals [4]. Aims: The aim was to test whether the EMF of a mobile phone influences the UV absorbance of dilutions of quartz and Atropa belladonna (AB). Methodology: Commercially available dilutions of 6x, 12x, 15x, 30x in H2O and 19% ethanol of quartz (SiO2) and of 4x, 6x, 12x, 15x, 30x in H2O and 19% ethanol of AB were used in the experiments (Weleda AG, Arlesheim, Switzerland). Four samples of each dilution were exposed to the EMF of a mobile phone (Philips, Savvy Dual Band) at 900 MHz with an output of 2 W for 3 h, while control samples (4 of each dilution) were kept in a separate room. Absorbance of the samples in the UV range (from 190 to 340 nm) was measured in a randomized order with a Shimadzu UV-1800 spectrophotometer equipped with an auto sampler. In total 5 separate measurement days will be carried out for quartz and for AB dilutions. The average absorbance from 200 to 340 nm and from 200 to 240 nm was compared among dilution levels using a Kruskal-Wallis test and between exposed and unexposed samples using a Mann-Whitney-U test. Results: Preliminary results after 2 measurement days indicated that for quartz the absorbance of the various dilution levels was different from each other (except 12x and 15x), and that samples exposed to an EMF did not show a difference in UV absorbance from unexposed samples. Preliminary results after one measurement day indicated that for AB the absorbance of the various dilution levels was different from each other. The samples exposed to an EMF did not show a difference in UV absorbance from unexposed samples (except 4x in the range from 200 – 240 nm). Conclusions: These results suggest that exposure of high dilutions of quartz and AB to a mobile phone EMF as used here does not alter UV absorbance of these dilutions. The final results will show whether this holds true.

Comparison of globules prepared from high dilutions of various starting materials by ultraviolet light spectroscopy

Background: High and ultra-high dilutions of various starting materials, e.g. copper sulfate, Hypericum perforatum and sulfur, showed significant differences in ultraviolet light (UV) transmission from controls and amongst different dilution levels [1,2]. Verum and placebo globules of Aconitum napellus 30c or calcium carbonate/quercus e cortice 6x from the same packs as used in previous clinical trials and dissolved in water could be distinguished by UV spectroscopy [3]. However, it was unclear whether the differences in UV absorbance originated from specific characteristics of the starting materials, from differences in the production of verum and placebo globules, and/or other unknown interference factors. Aims: The aim of this study was to investigate whether globules produced with high and ultra-high dilutions (6x, 12x, 30c, 200c, 200CF (centesimal discontinuous fluxion), 10,000CF) of various starting materials (Aconitum napellus, Atropa belladonna, phosphorus, sulfur, Apis mellifica, quartz) could be distinguished by UV spectroscopy. Methodology: The globules were specially produced for this study by Spagyros AG (Gümligen, Switzerland) and differed only in the starting materials of the dilutions (but not in the batch of globules or ethanol used). Globules were dissolved in water at 10 mg/ml, in quadruplicates, approximately 22 h prior to the measurements. Absorbance of the samples in the UV range (from 190 to 340 nm) was measured in a randomized order with a Shimadzu double beam UV-1800 spectrophotometer equipped with an auto sampler. Samples of each starting material were prepared and measured on 5 independent days. The daily variations of the spectrophotometer as well as the drift during the measurements were corrected for. The average absorbance from 200 to 340 nm was compared among various starting materials within equal dilution levels using a Kruskal-Wallis test. Results: Statistically significant differences were found among 30c (Figure 1), 200c and 200CF dilutions of the various starting materials. No differences were found among 6x, 12x and 10,000CF dilutions. Conclusions: Globules prepared from high dilutions of various starting materials may show significantly different UV absorbance when dissolved in water. References [1] Wolf U, Wolf M, Heusser P, Thurneysen A, Baumgartner S. Homeopathic preparations of quartz, sulfur and copper sulfate assessed by UV-spectroscopy. Evid Based Complement Alternat Med. 2011;2011:692798. [2] Klein SD, Sandig A, Baumgartner S, Wolf U. Differences in median ultraviolet light transmissions of serial homeopathic dilutions of copper sulfate, Hypericum perforatum, and sulfur. Evid Based Complement Alternat Med. 2013;2013:370609. [3] Klein SD, Wolf U. Investigating homeopathic verum and placebo globules with ultraviolet spectroscopy. Forsch Komplementmed. 2013, accepted.

A climatological analysis of high-precipitation events in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, and associated large-scale atmospheric conditions

The link between high precipitation in Dronning Maud Land (DML), Antarctica, and the large-scale atmospheric circulation is investigated using ERA-Interim data for 1979–2009. High-precipitation events are analyzed at Halvfarryggen situated in the coastal region of DML and at Kohnen Station located in its interior. This study further includes a comprehensive comparison of high precipitation in ERA-Interim with precipitation data from the Antarctic Mesoscale Prediction System (AMPS) and snow accumulation measurements from automatic weather stations (AWSs), with the limitations of such a comparison being discussed. The ERA-Interim and AMPS precipitation data agree very well. However, the correspondence between high precipitation in ERA-Interim and high snow accumulation at the AWSs is relatively weak. High-precipitation events at both Halvfarryggen and Kohnen are typically associated with amplified upper level waves. This large-scale atmospheric flow pattern is preceded by the downstream development of a Rossby wave train from the eastern South Pacific several days before the precipitation event. At the surface, a cyclone located over the Weddell Sea is the main synoptic ingredient for high precipitation both at Halvfarryggen and at Kohnen. A blocking anticyclone downstream is not a requirement for high precipitation per se, but a larger share of blocking occurrences during the highest-precipitation days in DML suggests that these blocks strengthen the vertically integrated water vapor transport (IVT) into DML. A strong link between high precipitation and the IVT perpendicular to the local orography suggests that IVT could be used as a “proxy” for high precipitation, in particular over DML's interior.

Improved sampling for gradient-domain metropolis light transport

We present a generalized framework for gradient-domain Metropolis rendering, and introduce three techniques to reduce sampling artifacts and variance. The first one is a heuristic weighting strategy that combines several sampling techniques to avoid outliers. The second one is an improved mapping to generate offset paths required for computing gradients. Here we leverage the properties of manifold walks in path space to cancel out singularities. Finally, the third technique introduces generalized screen space gradient kernels. This approach aligns the gradient kernels with image structures such as texture edges and geometric discontinuities to obtain sparser gradients than with the conventional gradient kernel. We implement our framework on top of an existing Metropolis sampler, and we demonstrate significant improvements in visual and numerical quality of our results compared to previous work.

Climatology of Vb cyclones, physical mechanisms and their impact on extreme precipitation over Central Europe

Cyclones, which develop over the western Mediterranean and move northeastward are a major source of extreme weather and known to be responsible for heavy precipitation over the northern side of the Alpine range and Central Europe. As the relevant processes triggering these so-called Vb events and their impact on extreme precipitation are not yet fully understood, this study focuses on gaining insight into the dynamics of past events. For this, a cyclone detection and tracking tool is applied to the ERA-Interim reanalysis (1979–2013) to identify prominent Vb situations. Precipitation in the ERA-Interim and the E-OBS data sets is used to evaluate case-to-case precipitation amounts and to assess consistency between the two data sets. Both data sets exhibit high variability in precipitation amounts among different Vb events. While only 23 % of all Vb events are associated with extreme precipitation, around 15 % of all extreme precipitation days (99 percentile) over the northern Alpine region and Central Europe are induced by Vb events, although Vb cyclones are rare events (2.3 per year). To obtain a better understanding of the variability within Vb events, the analysis of the 10 heaviest and lowest precipitation Vb events reveals noticeable differences in the state of the atmosphere. These differences are most pronounced in the geopotential height and potential vorticity field, indicating a much stronger cyclone for heavy precipitation events. The related differences in wind direction are responsible for the moisture transport around the Alps and the orographical lifting along the northern slopes of the Alps. These effects are the main reasons for a disastrous outcome of Vb events, and consequently are absent in the Vb events associated with low precipitation. Hence, our results point out that heavy precipitation related to Vb events is mainly related to large-scale dynamics rather than to thermodynamic processes.

The International Surface Pressure Databank version 2

The International Surface Pressure Databank (ISPD) is the world's largest collection of global surface and sea-level pressure observations. It was developed by extracting observations from established international archives, through international cooperation with data recovery facilitated by the Atmospheric Circulation Reconstructions over the Earth (ACRE) initiative, and directly by contributing universities, organizations, and countries. The dataset period is currently 1768–2012 and consists of three data components: observations from land stations, marine observing systems, and tropical cyclone best track pressure reports. Version 2 of the ISPD (ISPDv2) was created to be observational input for the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project (20CR) and contains the quality control and assimilation feedback metadata from the 20CR. Since then, it has been used for various general climate and weather studies, and an updated version 3 (ISPDv3) has been used in the ERA-20C reanalysis in connection with the European Reanalysis of Global Climate Observations project (ERA-CLIM). The focus of this paper is on the ISPDv2 and the inclusion of the 20CR feedback metadata. The Research Data Archive at the National Center for Atmospheric Research provides data collection and access for the ISPDv2, and will provide access to future versions.