Alarm systems and catastrophes from a diverse point of view

Using a chain of urns, we build a Bayesian nonparametric alarm system to predict catastrophic events, such as epidemics, black outs, etc. Differently from other alarm systems in the literature, our model is constantly updated on the basis of the available information, according to the Bayesian paradigm. The papers contains both theoretical and empirical results. In particular, we test our alarm system on a well-known time series of sunspots.

Classic and Complex PTSD in Switzerland: Prevalence and Theoretical Discussion

Switzerland seems to present a different picture with reference to PTSD prevalence rates. Probably partly as a result of being largely spared by large-scale catastrophes, compared to other countries, there are rather low PTSD prevalence rates. However, in traumatized or clinical samples, these rates amount to comparable sizes as in other countries. Generally, the empirical landscape concerning PTSD in Switzerland is rather limited. More research is needed to further clarify unsolved questions indicated within this article.

Тоска по домашнему очагу: Мандельштам, архитектура и русский язык

Le poète Ossip Mandelstam a été habité toute sa vie par un sentiment d’exil et de déracinement dont les causes sont diverses (« chaos judaïque » de son enfance, déménagements incessants, expérience de catastrophes historiques, etc.) : son ralliement au mouvement acméiste peut se comprendre comme une tentative de lutter contre ce sentiment au niveau de l’imaginaire. Le programme acméiste, contrairement au mouvement symboliste qui déprécie les choses d’ici bas au profit d’une réalité transcendante, peut en effet se définir comme une tentative de rendre au monde une certaine matérialité et hospitalité. Dans ce contexte, Mandelstam privilégie le motif architectural, qui lui fournit de nombreuses images de l’abri, du logement et de la protection, tout particulièrement dans son recueil intitulé Pierre. Néanmoins, si les images architecturales convoquées par Mandelstam apaisent momentanément sa soif d’un foyer, elles ne sont pas suffisantes : le poète invoque encore le pouvoir et le statut ontologique particuliers de la langue russe, seule langue capable selon lui de retrouver l’âme des choses et de faire que le poète se sente chez soi dans le monde.

Avalanche related damage potential - changes of persons and mobile values since the mid-twentieth century, case study Galtür

When determining risk related to natural hazard processes, many studies neglect the investigations of the damage potential or are limited to the assessment of immobile values like buildings. However, persons as well as mobile values form an essential part of the damage potential. Knowledge of the maximum number of exposed persons in an endangered area is of great importance for elaborating evacuation plans and immediate measures in case of catastrophes. In addition, motor vehicles can also be highly damaged, as was shown by the analysis of avalanche events. With the removal of mobile values in time as a preventive measure this kind of damage can be minimised. This study presents a method for recording the maximum number of exposed persons and monetarily assessing motor vehicles in the municipality of Galt¨ur (Tyrol, Austria). Moreover, general developments of the damage potential due to significant socio-economic changes since the mid-twentieth century are pointed out in the study area. The present situation of the maximum number of persons and mobile values in the official avalanche hazard zones of the municipality is described in detail. Information on the number of persons is derived of census data, tourism and employment statistics. During the winter months, a significant increase overlaid by strong short-term fluctuation in the number of persons can be noted. These changes result from a higher demand of tourism related manpower as well as from varying occupancy rates. The number of motor vehicles in endangered areas is closely associated to the number of exposed persons. The potential number of motor vehicles is investigated by means of mapping, statistics on the stock of motor vehicles and the density distribution. Diurnal and seasonal fluctuations of the investigated damage potential are pointed out. The recording of the number of persons and mobile values in endangered areas is vital for any disaster management.

The 1987 debris flows in Switzerland: documentation and analysis

A great number of debris flows occurred during the flood catastrophes of the summer of 1987 in the Swiss Alps. Aerial photography, field investigations and eyewitness accounts documented and analysed the events. As an example of the reconstructed major events, the large debris flow in the Varuna valley involved an estimated peak discharge between 400 and 800 m3/s and an event magnitude of 200,000 m3. Several single pulses were observed; the duration of each of them appeared to be not more than a few minutes. Apart from incision into weak bedrock, the maximum erosion depth seemed to depend on the channel gradient. Based on approximately 600 events, typical starting zones and rainfall conditions are discussed with regard to the triggering conditions. Existing and new empirical formulae are proposed to estimate the most important flow parameters. These values are compared to debris flow data from Canada and Japan.