Full publication of results initially presented in abstracts

BACKGROUND: Abstracts of presentations at scientific meetings are usually available only in conference proceedings. If subsequent full publication of abstract results is based on the magnitude or direction of study results, publication bias may result. Publication bias, in turn, creates problems for those conducting systematic reviews or relying on the published literature for evidence. OBJECTIVES: To determine the rate at which abstract results are subsequently published in full, and the time between meeting presentation and full publication. To assess the association between study characteristics and full publication. SEARCH STRATEGY: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library, Science Citation Index, reference lists, and author files. Date of most recent search: June 2003. SELECTION CRITERIA: We included all reports that examined the subsequent full publication rate of biomedical results initially presented as abstracts or in summary form. Follow-up of abstracts had to be at least two years. DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS: Two reviewers extracted data. We calculated the weighted mean full publication rate and time to full publication. Dichotomous variables were analyzed using relative risk and random effects models. We assessed time to publication using Kaplan-Meier survival analyses. MAIN RESULTS: Combining data from 79 reports (29,729 abstracts) resulted in a weighted mean full publication rate of 44.5% (95% confidence interval (CI) 43.9 to 45.1). Survival analyses resulted in an estimated publication rate at 9 years of 52.6% for all studies, 63.1% for randomized or controlled clinical trials, and 49.3% for other types of study designs.'Positive' results defined as any 'significant' result showed an association with full publication (RR = 1.30; CI 1.14 to 1.47), as did 'positive' results defined as a result favoring the experimental treatment (RR =1.17; CI 1.02 to 1.35), and 'positive' results emanating from randomized or controlled clinical trials (RR = 1.18, CI 1.07 to 1.30).Other factors associated with full publication include oral presentation (RR = 1.28; CI 1.09 to 1.49); acceptance for meeting presentation (RR = 1.78; CI 1.50 to 2.12); randomized trial study design (RR = 1.24; CI 1.14 to 1.36); and basic research (RR = 0.79; CI 0.70 to 0.89). Higher quality of abstracts describing randomized or controlled clinical trials was also associated with full publication (RR = 1.30, CI 1.00 to 1.71). AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS: Only 63% of results from abstracts describing randomized or controlled clinical trials are published in full. 'Positive' results were more frequently published than not 'positive' results.

Dynamic Optimization of SLA-Based Services Scaling Rules

Current advanced cloud infrastructure management solutions allow scheduling actions for dynamically changing the number of running virtual machines (VMs). This approach, however, does not guarantee that the scheduled number of VMs will properly handle the actual user generated workload, especially if the user utilization patterns will change. We propose using a dynamically generated scaling model for the VMs containing the services of the distributed applications, which is able to react to the variations in the number of application users. We answer the following question: How to dynamically decide how many services of each type are needed in order to handle a larger workload within the same time constraints? We describe a mechanism for dynamically composing the SLAs for controlling the scaling of distributed services by combining data analysis mechanisms with application benchmarking using multiple VM configurations. Based on processing of multiple application benchmarks generated data sets we discover a set of service monitoring metrics able to predict critical Service Level Agreement (SLA) parameters. By combining this set of predictor metrics with a heuristic for selecting the appropriate scaling-out paths for the services of distributed applications, we show how SLA scaling rules can be inferred and then used for controlling the runtime scale-in and scale-out of distributed services. We validate our architecture and models by performing scaling experiments with a distributed application representative for the enterprise class of information systems. We show how dynamically generated SLAs can be successfully used for controlling the management of distributed services scaling.

Childhood leukaemia risks: from unexplained findings near nuclear installations to recommendations for future research.

Recent findings related to childhood leukaemia incidence near nuclear installations have raised questions which can be answered neither by current knowledge on radiation risk nor by other established risk factors. In 2012, a workshop was organised on this topic with two objectives: (a) review of results and discussion of methodological limitations of studies near nuclear installations; (b) identification of directions for future research into the causes and pathogenesis of childhood leukaemia. The workshop gathered 42 participants from different disciplines, extending widely outside of the radiation protection field. Regarding the proximity of nuclear installations, the need for continuous surveillance of childhood leukaemia incidence was highlighted, including a better characterisation of the local population. The creation of collaborative working groups was recommended for consistency in methodologies and the possibility of combining data for future analyses. Regarding the causes of childhood leukaemia, major fields of research were discussed (environmental risk factors, genetics, infections, immunity, stem cells, experimental research). The need for multidisciplinary collaboration in developing research activities was underlined, including the prevalence of potential predisposition markers and investigating further the infectious aetiology hypothesis. Animal studies and genetic/epigenetic approaches appear of great interest. Routes for future research were pointed out.

Temperature and precipitation signal in two Alpine ice cores over the period 1961-2001

Water stable isotope ratios and net snow accumulation in ice cores are commonly interpreted as temperature or precipitation proxies. However, only in a few cases has a direct calibration with instrumental data been attempted. In this study we took advantage of the dense network of observations in the European Alpine region to rigorously test the relationship of the annual and seasonal resolved proxy data from two highly resolved ice cores with local temperature and precipitation. We focused on the time period 1961–2001 with the highest amount and quality of meteorological data and the minimal uncertainty in ice core dating (±1 year). The two ice cores were retrieved from the Fiescherhorn glacier (northern Alps, 3900 m a.s.l.), and Grenzgletscher (southern Alps, 4200 m a.s.l.). A parallel core from the Fiescherhorn glacier allowed assessing the reproducibility of the ice core proxy data. Due to the orographic barrier, the two flanks of the Alpine chain are affected by distinct patterns of precipitation. The different location of the two glaciers therefore offers a unique opportunity to test whether such a specific setting is reflected in the proxy data. On a seasonal scale a high fraction of δ18O variability was explained by the seasonal cycle of temperature (~60% for the ice cores, ~70% for the nearby stations of the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation – GNIP). When the seasonality is removed, the correlations decrease for all sites, indicating that factors other than temperature such as changing moisture sources and/or precipitation regimes affect the isotopic signal on this timescale. Post-depositional phenomena may additionally modify the ice core data. On an annual scale, the δ18O/temperature relationship was significant at the Fiescherhorn, whereas for Grenzgletscher this was the case only when weighting the temperature with precipitation. In both cases the fraction of interannual temperature variability explained was ~20%, comparable to the values obtained from the GNIP stations data. Consistently with previous studies, we found an altitude effect for the δ18O of −0.17‰/100 m for an extended elevation range combining data of the two ice core sites and four GNIP stations. Significant correlations between net accumulation and precipitation were observed for Grenzgletscher during the entire period of investigation, whereas for Fiescherhorn this was the case only for the less recent period (1961–1977). Local phenomena, probably related to wind, seem to partly disturb the Fiescherhorn accumulation record. Spatial correlation analysis shows the two glaciers to be influenced by different precipitation regimes, with the Grenzgletscher reflecting the characteristic precipitation regime south of the Alps and the Fiescherhorn accumulation showing a pattern more closely linked to northern Alpine stations.

Combining follow-up and change data is valid in meta-analyses of continuous outcomes: a meta-epidemiological study

OBJECTIVE To investigate whether it is valid to combine follow-up and change data when conducting meta-analyses of continuous outcomes. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING Meta-epidemiological study of randomized controlled trials in patients with osteoarthritis of the knee/hip, which assessed patient-reported pain. We calculated standardized mean differences (SMDs) based on follow-up and change data, and pooled within-trial differences in SMDs. We also derived pooled SMDs indicating the largest treatment effect within a trial (optimistic selection of SMDs) and derived pooled SMDs from the estimate indicating the smallest treatment effect within a trial (pessimistic selection of SMDs). RESULTS A total of 21 meta-analyses with 189 trials with 292 randomized comparisons in 41,256 patients were included. On average, SMDs were 0.04 standard deviation units more beneficial when follow-up values were used (difference in SMDs: -0.04; 95% confidence interval: -0.13, 0.06; P=0.44). In 13 meta-analyses (62%), there was a relevant difference in clinical and/or significance level between optimistic and pessimistic pooled SMDs. CONCLUSION On average, there is no relevant difference between follow-up and change data SMDs, and combining these estimates in meta-analysis is generally valid. Decision on which type of data to use when both follow-up and change data are available should be prespecified in the meta-analysis protocol.

BrainCheck - a very brief tool to detect incipient cognitive decline: optimized case-finding combining patient- and informant-based data.

INTRODUCTION Optimal identification of subtle cognitive impairment in the primary care setting requires a very brief tool combining (a) patients' subjective impairments, (b) cognitive testing, and (c) information from informants. The present study developed a new, very quick and easily administered case-finding tool combining these assessments ('BrainCheck') and tested the feasibility and validity of this instrument in two independent studies. METHODS We developed a case-finding tool comprised of patient-directed (a) questions about memory and depression and (b) clock drawing, and (c) the informant-directed 7-item version of the Informant Questionnaire on Cognitive Decline in the Elderly (IQCODE). Feasibility study: 52 general practitioners rated the feasibility and acceptance of the patient-directed tool. Validation study: An independent group of 288 Memory Clinic patients (mean ± SD age = 76.6 ± 7.9, education = 12.0 ± 2.6; 53.8% female) with diagnoses of mild cognitive impairment (n = 80), probable Alzheimer's disease (n = 185), or major depression (n = 23) and 126 demographically matched, cognitively healthy volunteer participants (age = 75.2 ± 8.8, education = 12.5 ± 2.7; 40% female) partook. All patient and healthy control participants were administered the patient-directed tool, and informants of 113 patient and 70 healthy control participants completed the very short IQCODE. RESULTS Feasibility study: General practitioners rated the patient-directed tool as highly feasible and acceptable. Validation study: A Classification and Regression Tree analysis generated an algorithm to categorize patient-directed data which resulted in a correct classification rate (CCR) of 81.2% (sensitivity = 83.0%, specificity = 79.4%). Critically, the CCR of the combined patient- and informant-directed instruments (BrainCheck) reached nearly 90% (that is 89.4%; sensitivity = 97.4%, specificity = 81.6%). CONCLUSION A new and very brief instrument for general practitioners, 'BrainCheck', combined three sources of information deemed critical for effective case-finding (that is, patients' subject impairments, cognitive testing, informant information) and resulted in a nearly 90% CCR. Thus, it provides a very efficient and valid tool to aid general practitioners in deciding whether patients with suspected cognitive impairments should be further evaluated or not ('watchful waiting').

Combining 3D tracking and surgical instrumentation to determine the stiffness of spinal motion segments: a validation study

The spine is a complex structure that provides motion in three directions: flexion and extension, lateral bending and axial rotation. So far, the investigation of the mechanical and kinematic behavior of the basic unit of the spine, a motion segment, is predominantly a domain of in vitro experiments on spinal loading simulators. Most existing approaches to measure spinal stiffness intraoperatively in an in vivo environment use a distractor. However, these concepts usually assume a planar loading and motion. The objective of our study was to develop and validate an apparatus, that allows to perform intraoperative in vivo measurements to determine both the applied force and the resulting motion in three dimensional space. The proposed setup combines force measurement with an instrumented distractor and motion tracking with an optoelectronic system. As the orientation of the applied force and the three dimensional motion is known, not only force-displacement, but also moment-angle relations could be determined. The validation was performed using three cadaveric lumbar ovine spines. The lateral bending stiffness of two motion segments per specimen was determined with the proposed concept and compared with the stiffness acquired on a spinal loading simulator which was considered to be gold standard. The mean values of the stiffness computed with the proposed concept were within a range of ±15% compared to data obtained with the spinal loading simulator under applied loads of less than 5 Nm.

Virtopsy: fatal stab wounds to the skull--the relevance of ante-mortem and post-mortem radiological data in case reconstructions

Homicides with a survival of several days are not uncommon in forensic routine work. Reconstructions of these cases by autopsy alone are very difficult and may occasionally lead to unsatisfying results. For the medico-legal reconstruction of these cases, ante-mortem and post-mortem radiological imaging should always be included in the expertise. We report on a case of fatal penetrating stab wounds to the skull in which a case reconstruction was only possible by combining the radiological ante- and post-mortem data with the autopsy findings.

Overview of data assimilation methods

We present the data assimilation approach, which provides a framework for combining observations and model simulations of the climate system, and has led to a new field of applications for paleoclimatology. The three subsequent articles explore specific applications in more detail.

Changes in cerebral hemodynamics and oxygenation induced by different speech tasks – an assessment by combining functional near‐infrared spectroscopy and capnography

Introduction In several studies, we found that during guided rhythmic speech exercises, a decrease in cerebral hemodynamics and oxygenation occurred as the result of a decrease in the partial pressure of carbon dioxide in the arterial blood (PaCO2) during speaking. To further explore the effect of PaCO2 variations on cerebral hemodynamics and oxygenation, the aim of the present study was to investigate the impact of spoken, inner and heard speech tasks on these parameters. Material and Methods Speech tasks included recitation or inner recitation or listening to hexameter, alliteration, prose, or performing mental arithmetic. The following physiological parameters were measured: tissue oxygen saturation (StO2) and absolute concentrations of oxyhemoglobin, deoxyhemoglobin, total hemoglobin (over the left and right anterior prefrontal cortex, using an ISS OxiplexTS frequency domain near-infrared spectrometer) and end-tidal CO2 (PETCO2; using Nellcor N1000 and Datex NORMOCAP capnographs). Statistical analysis was applied to the differences between baseline, 2 tasks, and 3 post-baseline periods. Data of 3 studies with 24, 7 and 29 healthy subjects, respectively, were combined, and linear regression analyses were calculated. Results Linear regression analyses revealed significant relations between changes in oxyhemoglobin, deoxyhemoglobin, total hemoglobin or StO2 and the participants’ age, the baseline PETCO2 or certain speech tasks. While hexameter verses affected changes during the tasks, alliteration verses only affected changes during the recovery phase. Discussion and Conclusion The observed effects in hemodynamics and oxygenation indicate a combination of neurovascular coupling (increased neuronal activity leading to an increase in the cerebral metabolic rate of oxygen resulting in an increase in cerebral flood flow/volume) and CO2 reactivity (increased breathing during speech tasks causing a decrease in PaCO2 leading to vasoconstriction and decrease in cerebral blood flow). The neurovascular coupling characteristics are task-dependent. References Scholkmann F, Gerber U, Wolf M, Wolf U. End-tidal CO2: An important parameter for a correct interpretation in functional brain studies using speech tasks. Neuroimage 2013;66:71-79. Scholkmann F, Wolf M, Wolf U. The effect of inner speech on arterial CO2, cerebral hemodynamics and oxygenation – A functional NIRS study. Adv Exp Med Biol 2013;789:81-87.

Social Meets Molecular: Combining Phylogenetic and Latent Class Analyses to Understand HIV-1 Transmission in Switzerland

Switzerland has a complex human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic involving several populations. We examined transmission of HIV type 1 (HIV-1) in a national cohort study. Latent class analysis was used to identify socioeconomic and behavioral groups among 6,027 patients enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study between 2000 and 2011. Phylogenetic analysis of sequence data, available for 4,013 patients, was used to identify transmission clusters. Concordance between sociobehavioral groups and transmission clusters was assessed in correlation and multiple correspondence analyses. A total of 2,696 patients were infected with subtype B, 203 with subtype C, 196 with subtype A, and 733 with recombinant subtypes (mainly CRF02_AG and CRF01_AE). Latent class analysis identified 8 patient groups. Most transmission clusters of subtype B were shared between groups of gay men (groups 1-3) or between the heterosexual groups "heterosexual people of lower socioeconomic position" (group 4) and "injection drug users" (group 8). Clusters linking homosexual and heterosexual groups were associated with "older heterosexual and gay people on welfare" (group 5). "Migrant women in heterosexual partnerships" (group 6) and "heterosexual migrants on welfare" (group 7) shared non-B clusters with groups 4 and 5. Combining approaches from social and molecular epidemiology can provide insights into HIV-1 transmission and inform the design of prevention strategies.