On Graphically Checking Goodness-of-fit of Binary Logistic Regression Models

OBJECTIVES: This paper is concerned with checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic regression models. For the practitioners of data analysis, the broad classes of procedures for checking goodness-of-fit available in the literature are described. The challenges of model checking in the context of binary logistic regression are reviewed. As a viable solution, a simple graphical procedure for checking goodness-of-fit is proposed. METHODS: The graphical procedure proposed relies on pieces of information available from any logistic analysis; the focus is on combining and presenting these in an informative way. RESULTS: The information gained using this approach is presented with three examples. In the discussion, the proposed method is put into context and compared with other graphical procedures for checking goodness-of-fit of binary logistic models available in the literature. CONCLUSION: A simple graphical method can significantly improve the understanding of any logistic regression analysis and help to prevent faulty conclusions.

A Neuromonitoring Approach to Facial Nerve Preservation During Image-guided Robotic Cochlear Implantation.

HYPOTHESIS A multielectrode probe in combination with an optimized stimulation protocol could provide sufficient sensitivity and specificity to act as an effective safety mechanism for preservation of the facial nerve in case of an unsafe drill distance during image-guided cochlear implantation. BACKGROUND A minimally invasive cochlear implantation is enabled by image-guided and robotic-assisted drilling of an access tunnel to the middle ear cavity. The approach requires the drill to pass at distances below 1 mm from the facial nerve and thus safety mechanisms for protecting this critical structure are required. Neuromonitoring is currently used to determine facial nerve proximity in mastoidectomy but lacks sensitivity and specificity necessaries to effectively distinguish the close distance ranges experienced in the minimally invasive approach, possibly because of current shunting of uninsulated stimulating drilling tools in the drill tunnel and because of nonoptimized stimulation parameters. To this end, we propose an advanced neuromonitoring approach using varying levels of stimulation parameters together with an integrated bipolar and monopolar stimulating probe. MATERIALS AND METHODS An in vivo study (sheep model) was conducted in which measurements at specifically planned and navigated lateral distances from the facial nerve were performed to determine if specific sets of stimulation parameters in combination with the proposed neuromonitoring system could reliably detect an imminent collision with the facial nerve. For the accurate positioning of the neuromonitoring probe, a dedicated robotic system for image-guided cochlear implantation was used and drilling accuracy was corrected on postoperative microcomputed tomographic images. RESULTS From 29 trajectories analyzed in five different subjects, a correlation between stimulus threshold and drill-to-facial nerve distance was found in trajectories colliding with the facial nerve (distance <0.1 mm). The shortest pulse duration that provided the highest linear correlation between stimulation intensity and drill-to-facial nerve distance was 250 μs. Only at low stimulus intensity values (≤0.3 mA) and with the bipolar configurations of the probe did the neuromonitoring system enable sufficient lateral specificity (>95%) at distances to the facial nerve below 0.5 mm. However, reduction in stimulus threshold to 0.3 mA or lower resulted in a decrease of facial nerve distance detection range below 0.1 mm (>95% sensitivity). Subsequent histopathology follow-up of three representative cases where the neuromonitoring system could reliably detect a collision with the facial nerve (distance <0.1 mm) revealed either mild or inexistent damage to the nerve fascicles. CONCLUSION Our findings suggest that although no general correlation between facial nerve distance and stimulation threshold existed, possibly because of variances in patient-specific anatomy, correlations at very close distances to the facial nerve and high levels of specificity would enable a binary response warning system to be developed using the proposed probe at low stimulation currents.

Sevoflurane remifentanil interaction: comparison of different response surface models

Various pharmacodynamic response surface models have been developed to quantitatively describe the relationship between two or more drug concentrations with their combined clinical effect. We examined the interaction of remifentanil and sevoflurane on the probability of tolerance to shake and shout, tetanic stimulation, laryngeal mask airway insertion, and laryngoscopy in patients to compare the performance of five different response surface models.

The STEREO/PLASTIC response to solar wind ions (Flight measurements and models)

The Plasma and Supra-Thermal Ion Composition (PLASTIC) instrument is one of four experiment packages on board of the two identical STEREO spacecraft A and B, which were successfully launched from Cape Canaveral on 26 October 2006. During the two years of the nominal STEREO mission, PLASTIC is providing us with the plasma characteristics of protons, alpha particles, and heavy ions. PLASTIC will also provide key diagnostic measurements in the form of the mass and charge state composition of heavy ions. Three measurements (E/qk, time of flight, ESSD) from the pulse height raw data are used to characterize the solar wind ions from the solar wind sector, and part of the suprathermal particles from the wide-angle partition with respect to mass, atomic number and charge state. In this paper, we present a new method for flight data analysis based on simulations of the PLASTIC response to solar wind ions. We present the response of the entrance system / energy analyzer in an analytical form. Based on stopping power theory, we use an analytical expression for the energy loss of the ions when they pass through a thin carbon foil. This allows us to model analytically the response of the time of flight mass spectrometer to solar wind ions. Thus we present a new version of the analytical response of the solid state detectors to solar wind ions. Various important parameters needed for our models were derived, based on calibration data and on the first flight measurements obtained from STEREO-A. We used information from each measured event that is registered in full resolution in the Pulse Height Analysis words and we derived a new algorithm for the analysis of both existing and future data sets of a similar nature which was tested and works well. This algorithm allows us to obtain, for each measured event, the mass, atomic number and charge state in the correct physical units. Finally, an important criterion was developed for filtering our Fe raw flight data set from the pulse height data without discriminating charge states.

Transcriptional response to cardiac injury in the zebrafish: systematic identification of genes with highly concordant activity across in vivo models

BACKGROUND Zebrafish is a clinically-relevant model of heart regeneration. Unlike mammals, it has a remarkable heart repair capacity after injury, and promises novel translational applications. Amputation and cryoinjury models are key research tools for understanding injury response and regeneration in vivo. An understanding of the transcriptional responses following injury is needed to identify key players of heart tissue repair, as well as potential targets for boosting this property in humans. RESULTS We investigated amputation and cryoinjury in vivo models of heart damage in the zebrafish through unbiased, integrative analyses of independent molecular datasets. To detect genes with potential biological roles, we derived computational prediction models with microarray data from heart amputation experiments. We focused on a top-ranked set of genes highly activated in the early post-injury stage, whose activity was further verified in independent microarray datasets. Next, we performed independent validations of expression responses with qPCR in a cryoinjury model. Across in vivo models, the top candidates showed highly concordant responses at 1 and 3 days post-injury, which highlights the predictive power of our analysis strategies and the possible biological relevance of these genes. Top candidates are significantly involved in cell fate specification and differentiation, and include heart failure markers such as periostin, as well as potential new targets for heart regeneration. For example, ptgis and ca2 were overexpressed, while usp2a, a regulator of the p53 pathway, was down-regulated in our in vivo models. Interestingly, a high activity of ptgis and ca2 has been previously observed in failing hearts from rats and humans. CONCLUSIONS We identified genes with potential critical roles in the response to cardiac damage in the zebrafish. Their transcriptional activities are reproducible in different in vivo models of cardiac injury.

Growth response to antiretroviral treatment in HIV-infected children: a cohort study from Lilongwe, Malawi

Objective  Malnutrition is common in HIV-infected children in Africa and an indication for antiretroviral treatment (ART). We examined anthropometric status and response to ART in children treated at a large public-sector clinic in Malawi. Methods  All children aged <15 years who started ART between January 2001 and December 2006 were included and followed until March 2008. Weight and height were measured at regular intervals from 1 year before to 2 years after the start of ART. Sex- and age-standardized z-scores were calculated for weight-for-age (WAZ) and height-for-age (HAZ). Predictors of growth were identified in multivariable mixed-effect models. Results  A total of 497 children started ART and were followed for 972 person-years. Median age (interquartile range; IQR) was 8 years (4–11 years). Most children were underweight (52% of children), stunted (69%), in advanced clinical stages (94% in WHO stages 3 or 4) and had severe immunodeficiency (77%). After starting ART, median (IQR) WAZ and HAZ increased from −2.1 (−2.7 to −1.3) and −2.6 (−3.6 to −1.8) to −1.4 (−2.1 to −0.8) and −1.8 (−2.4 to −1.1) at 24 months, respectively (P < 0.001). In multivariable models, baseline WAZ and HAZ scores were the most important determinants of growth trajectories on ART. Conclusions  Despite a sustained growth response to ART among children remaining on therapy, normal values were not reached. Interventions leading to earlier HIV diagnosis and initiation of treatment could improve growth response.

Small-animal PET/CT for monitoring the development and response to chemotherapy of thymic lymphoma in Trp53-/- mice

Transgenic mouse models of human cancers represent one of the most promising approaches to elucidate clinically relevant mechanisms of action and provide insights into the treatment efficacy of new antitumor drugs. The use of Trp53 transgenic mice (Trp53 knockout [Trp53(-/-)] mice) for these kinds of studies is, so far, restricted by limitations in detecting developing tumors and the lack of noninvasive tools for monitoring tumor growth, progression, and treatment response.

Impact of treatment characteristics on response of different breast cancer phenotypes: pooled analysis of the German neo-adjuvant chemotherapy trials

Pathological complete response (pCR) to neoadjuvant treatment correlates with outcome in breast cancer. We determined whether characteristics of neoadjuvant therapy are associated with pCR. We used multi-level models, which accounted for heterogeneity in pCR across trials and trial arms, to analyze individual patient data from 3332 women included in 7 German neoadjuvant trials with uniform protocols. PCR was associated with an increase in number of chemotherapy cycles (odds ratio [OR] 1.2 for every two additional cycles; P = 0.009), with higher cumulative anthracycline doses (OR 1.6; P = 0.002), higher cumulative taxane doses (OR 1.6; P = 0.009), and with capecitabine containing regimens (OR 1.62; P = 0.022). Association of pCR with increase in number of cycles appeared more pronounced in hormone receptor (HR)-positive tumors (OR 1.35) than in HR-negative tumors (OR 1.04; P for interaction = 0.046). Effect of anthracycline dose was particularly pronounced in HER2-negative tumors (OR 1.61), compared to HER2-positive tumors (OR 0.83; P for interaction = 0.14). Simultaneous trastuzumab treatment in HER2-positive tumors increased odds of pCR 3.2-fold (P < 0.001). No association of pCR and number of trastuzumab cycles was found (OR 1.20, P = 0.39). Dosing characteristics appear important for successful treatment of breast cancer. Longer treatment, higher cumulative doses of anthracyclines and taxanes, and the addition of capecitabine and trastuzumab are associated with better response. Tailoring according to breast cancer phenotype might be possible: longer treatment in HR-positive tumors, higher cumulative anthracycline doses for HER2-negative tumors, shorter treatment at higher cumulative doses for triple-negative tumors, and limited number of preoperative trastuzumab cycles in HER2-positive tumors.

Domains of physical activity and all-cause mortality: systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of cohort studies

Background The dose–response relation between physical activity and all-cause mortality is not well defined at present. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the association with all-cause mortality of different domains of physical activity and of defined increases in physical activity and energy expenditure. Methods MEDLINE, Embase and the Cochrane Library were searched up to September 2010 for cohort studies examining all-cause mortality across different domains and levels of physical activity in adult general populations. We estimated combined risk ratios (RRs) associated with defined increments and recommended levels, using random-effects meta-analysis and dose–response meta-regression models. Results Data from 80 studies with 1 338 143 participants (118 121 deaths) were included. Combined RRs comparing highest with lowest activity levels were 0.65 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.60–0.71] for total activity, 0.74 (95% CI 0.70–0.77) for leisure activity, 0.64 (95% CI 0.55–0.75) for activities of daily living and 0.83 (95% CI 0.71–0.97) for occupational activity. RRs per 1-h increment per week were 0.91 (95% CI 0.87–0.94) for vigorous exercise and 0.96 (95% CI 0.93–0.98) for moderate-intensity activities of daily living. RRs corresponding to 150 and 300 min/week of moderate to vigorous activity were 0.86 (95% CI 0.80–0.92) and 0.74 (95% CI 0.65–0.85), respectively. Mortality reductions were more pronounced in women. Conclusion Higher levels of total and domain-specific physical activity were associated with reduced all-cause mortality. Risk reduction per unit of time increase was largest for vigorous exercise. Moderate-intensity activities of daily living were to a lesser extent beneficial in reducing mortality.

SNPs in DNA repair genes associated to meningitis and host immune response

In vitro and in animal models, APE1, OGG1, and PARP-1 have been proposed as being involved with inflammatory response. In this work, we have investigated if the SNPs APE1 Asn148Glu, OGG1 Ser326Cys, and PARP-1 Val762Ala are associated to meningitis. The patient genotypes were investigated by PIRA-PCR or PCR-RFLP. DNA damages were detected in genomic DNA by Fpg treatment. IgG and IgA were measured from plasma and the cytokines and chemokines were measured from cerebrospinal fluid samples using Bio-Plex assays. A higher frequency (P<0.05) of APE1 Glu allele in bacterial meningitis (BM) and aseptic meningitis (AM) patients was observed. The genotypes Asn/Asn in control group and Asn/Glu in BM group was also higher. For the SNP OGG1 Ser326Cys, the genotype Cys/Cys was more frequent (P<0.05) in BM group. The frequency of PARP-1 Val/Val genotype was higher in control group (P<0.05). The occurrence of combined SNPs is significantly higher in BM patients, indicating that these SNPs may be associated to the disease. Increasing in sensitive sites to Fpg was observed in carriers of APE1 Glu allele or OGG1 Cys allele, suggesting that SNPs affect DNA repair activity. Alterations in IgG production were observed in the presence of SNPs APE1 Asn148Glu, OGG1 Ser326Cys or PARP-1 Val762Ala. Moreover, reduction in the levels of IL-6, IL-1Ra, MCP-1/CCL2 and IL-8/CXCL8 was observed in the presence of APE1 Glu allele in BM patients. In conclusion, we obtained indications of an effect of SNPs in DNA repair genes on the regulation of immune response in meningitis.

The quantitative genetic basis of offspring solicitation and parental response in a passerine bird with biparental care

The coevolution of parental investment and offspring solicitation is driven by partly different evolutionary interests of genes expressed in parents and their offspring. In species with biparental care, the outcome of this conflict ma!: be influenced by the sexual conflict over parental investment, Models for the resolution of such family conflicts have made so far untested assumptions about genetic variation and covariation in the parental resource provisioning response and the level of offspring solicitation. Using a combination of cross-fostering and begging playback experiments, we show that, in the great tit (Parus major), (i) the begging call intensity of nestlings depends on their common origin, suggesting genetic variation for this begging display, (ii) only mothers respond to begging calls by increased food provisioning, and (iii! the size of the parental response is positively related to the begging call intensity of nestlings in the maternal but not paternal line. This study indicates that genetic covariation, its differential expression in the maternal and paternal lines and/or early environmental and parental effects need to be taken into account when predicting the phenotypic outcome of the conflict over investment between genes expressed in each parent and the offspring. [References: 36]

Immunologic response to antiretroviral therapy in hepatitis C virus-coinfected adults in a population-based HIV/AIDS treatment program

BACKGROUND: We sought to characterize the impact that hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has on CD4 cells during the first 48 weeks of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in previously ART-naive human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected patients. METHODS: The HIV/AIDS Drug Treatment Programme at the British Columbia Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS distributes all ART in this Canadian province. Eligible individuals were those whose first-ever ART included 2 nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors and either a protease inhibitor or a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor and who had a documented positive result for HCV antibody testing. Outcomes were binary events (time to an increase of > or = 75 CD4 cells/mm3 or an increase of > or = 10% in the percentage of CD4 cells in the total T cell population [CD4 cell fraction]) and continuous repeated measures. Statistical analyses used parametric and nonparametric methods, including multivariate mixed-effects linear regression analysis and Cox proportional hazards analysis. RESULTS: Of 1186 eligible patients, 606 (51%) were positive and 580 (49%) were negative for HCV antibodies. HCV antibody-positive patients were slower to have an absolute (P<.001) and a fraction (P = .02) CD4 cell event. In adjusted Cox proportional hazards analysis (controlling for age, sex, baseline absolute CD4 cell count, baseline pVL, type of ART initiated, AIDS diagnosis at baseline, adherence to ART regimen, and number of CD4 cell measurements), HCV antibody-positive patients were less likely to have an absolute CD4 cell event (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 0.84 [95% confidence interval [CI], 0.72-0.98]) and somewhat less likely to have a CD4 cell fraction event (AHR, 0.89 [95% CI, 0.70-1.14]) than HCV antibody-negative patients. In multivariate mixed-effects linear regression analysis, HCV antibody-negative patients had increases of an average of 75 cells in the absolute CD4 cell count and 4.4% in the CD4 cell fraction, compared with 20 cells and 1.1% in HCV antibody-positive patients, during the first 48 weeks of ART, after adjustment for time-updated pVL, number of CD4 cell measurements, and other factors. CONCLUSION: HCV antibody-positive HIV-infected patients may have an altered immunologic response to ART.

Elevated levels of placental growth factor represent an adaptive host response in sepsis

Recently, we demonstrated that circulating levels of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and placental growth factor (PlGF) are increased in sepsis (Yano, K., P.C. Liaw, J.M. Mullington, S.C. Shih, H. Okada, N. Bodyak, P.M. Kang, L. Toltl, B. Belikoff, J. Buras, et al. 2006. J. Exp. Med. 203:1447-1458). Moreover, enhanced VEGF/Flk-1 signaling was shown to contribute to sepsis morbidity and mortality. We tested the hypothesis that PlGF also contributes to sepsis outcome. In mouse models of endotoxemia and cecal ligation puncture, the genetic absence of PlGF or the systemic administration of neutralizing anti-PlGF antibodies resulted in higher mortality compared with wild-type or immunoglobulin G-injected controls, respectively. The increased mortality associated with genetic deficiency of PlGF was reversed by adenovirus (Ad)-mediated overexpression of PlGF. In the endotoxemia model, PlGF deficiency was associated with elevated circulating levels of VEGF, induction of VEGF expression in the liver, impaired cardiac function, and organ-specific accentuation of barrier dysfunction and inflammation. Mortality of endotoxemic PlGF-deficient mice was increased by Ad-mediated overexpression of VEGF and was blocked by expression of soluble Flt-1. Collectively, these data suggest that up-regulation of PlGF in sepsis is an adaptive host response that exerts its benefit, at least in part, by attenuating VEGF signaling.