Genuine cross-correlations: Which surrogate based measure reproduces analytical results best?

The analysis of short segments of noise-contaminated, multivariate real world data constitutes a challenge. In this paper we compare several techniques of analysis, which are supposed to correctly extract the amount of genuine cross-correlations from a multivariate data set. In order to test for the quality of their performance we derive time series from a linear test model, which allows the analytical derivation of genuine correlations. We compare the numerical estimates of the four measures with the analytical results for different correlation pattern. In the bivariate case all but one measure performs similarly well. However, in the multivariate case measures based on the eigenvalues of the equal-time cross-correlation matrix do not extract exclusively information about the amount of genuine correlations, but they rather reflect the spatial organization of the correlation pattern. This may lead to failures when interpreting the numerical results as illustrated by an application to three electroencephalographic recordings of three patients suffering from pharmacoresistent epilepsy.

Hair analysis for Delta9-tetrahydrocannabinolic acid A--new insights into the mechanism of drug incorporation of cannabinoids into hair

Differentiation between external contamination and incorporation of drugs or their metabolites from inside the body via blood, sweat or sebum is a general issue in hair analysis and of high concern when interpreting analytical results. In hair analysis for cannabinoids the most common target is Delta9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THC), sometimes cannabidiol (CBD) and cannabinol (CBN) are determined additionally. After repeated external contamination by cannabis smoke these analytes are known to be found in hair even after performing multiple washing steps. A widely accepted strategy to unequivocally prove active cannabis consumption is the analysis of hair extracts for the oxidative metabolite 11-nor-9-carboxy-THC (THC-COOH). Although the acidic nature of this metabolite suggests a lower rate of incorporation into the hair matrix compared to THC, it is not fully understood up to now why hair concentrations of THC-COOH are generally found to be much lower (mostly <10 pg/mg) than the corresponding THC concentrations. Delta9-Tetrahydrocannabinolic acid A (THCA A) is the preliminary end product of the THC biosynthesis in the cannabis plant. Unlike THC it is non-psychoactive and can be regarded as a 'precursor' of THC being largely decarboxylated when heated or smoked. The presented work shows for the first time that THCA A is not only detectable in blood and urine of cannabis consumers but also in THC positive hair samples. A pilot experiment performed within this study showed that after oral intake of THCA A on a regular basis no relevant incorporation into hair occurred. It can be concluded that THCA A in hair almost exclusively derives from external contamination e.g. by side stream smoke. Elevated temperatures during the analytical procedure, particularly under alkaline conditions, can lead to decarboxylation of THCA A and accordingly increase THC concentrations in hair. Additionally, it has to be kept in mind that in hair samples tested positive for THCA A at least a part of the 'non-artefact' THC probably derives from external contamination as well, because in condensate of cannabis smoke both THC and THCA A are present in relevant amounts. External contamination by side stream smoke could therefore explain the great differences in THC and THC-COOH hair concentrations commonly found in cannabis users.

Geochemical synthesis for the Effingen Member in boreholes at Oftringen, Gösgen and Küttigen

The Effingen Member is a low-permeability rock unit of Oxfordian age (ca. 160 Ma) that occurs across northern Switzerland. It comprises sandy calcareous marls and (argillaceous) limestones. This report describes the hydrogeochemistry, mineralogy and supporting physical properties of the Effingen Member in three boreholes in the Jura-Südfuss area: Oftringen, Gösgen and Küttigen, where it is 220–240 m thick. The top of the Effingen Member is at 420, 66 and 32 m depths at the three sites. Core materials are available from Oftringen and Gösgen, whereas information from Küttigen is limited to cuttings, in-situ hydrogeological testing and geophysical logging. Hydrogeological boundaries of the Effingen Member vary between locations. Ground-water flows were identified during drilling at the top (Geissberg Member), but not at the base, of the Effingen Member at Oftringen, at the base (Hauptrogenstein Formation) of the Effingen Member at Gösgen, and in a limestone layer (Gerstenhübel unit) within the Effingen Member at Küttigen. The marls and limestones of the Effingen Member have carbonate contents of 46–91 wt.-% and clay-mineral contents of 5–37 wt.-%. Pyrite contents are up to 1.6 wt.-%, but no sulphate minerals were detected by routine analyses. Clay minerals are predominantly mixed-layer illite-smectite, illite and kaolinite, with sporadic traces of chlorite and smectite. Veins filled with calcite ± celestite occur through the Effingen Member at Oftringen but not at Gösgen or Küttigen. They formed at 50–70 ºC from externally derived fluids, probably of Miocene age. Water contents are 0.7–4.2 wt.-%, corresponding to a water-loss porosity range of 1.9–10.8 vol.-%. Specific surface areas, measured by the BET method, are 2–30 m2/g, correlating with clay-mineral contents. Water activity has been measured and yielded surprisingly low values down to 0.8. These cannot be explained by pore-water salinity alone and include other effects, such as changes in the fabric due to stress release or partial saturation. Observed variations in measurements are not fully understood. Cation exchange capacity (CEC) and exchangeable cation populations have been studied by the Ni-en method. CEC, derived from the consumption of the index cation Ni, is 9–99 meq/kgrock at a solid:liquid ratio of 1, correlating with the clay-mineral content. Cation concentrations in Ni-en extract solutions are in the order Na+≥Ca2+>Mg2+>K+>Sr2+. However, the analytical results from the Ni-en extractions have additional contributions from cations originating from pore water and from mineral dissolution reactions that occurred during extraction, and it was not possible to reliably quantify these contributions. Therefore, in-situ cation populations and selectivity coefficients could not be derived. A suite of methods have been used for characterising the chemical compositions of pore waters in the Effingen Member. Advective displacement was used on one sample from each Oftringen and Gösgen and is the only method that produces results that approach complete hydrochemical compositions. Aqueous extraction was used on core samples from these two boreholes and gives data only for Cl- and, in some cases, Br-. Out-diffusion was used on core samples from Oftringen and similarly gives data for Cl- and Br- only. For both aqueous extraction and out-diffusion, reaction of the experimental water with rock affected concentrations of cations, SO42 and alkalinity in experimental solutions. Another method, centrifugation, failed to extract pore water. Stable isotope ratios (δ18O and δ2H) of pore waters in core samples from Oftringen were analysed by the diffusive exchange method and helium contents of pore water in Oftringen samples were extracted for mass spectrometric analysis by quantitative outgassing of preserved core samples. Several lines of evidence indicate that drillcore samples might not have been fully saturated when opened and subsampled in the laboratory. These include comparisons of water-loss porosities with physical porosities, water-activity measurements, and high contents of dissolved gas as inferred from ground-water samples. There is no clear proof of partial saturation and it is unclear whether this might represent in-situ conditions or is due to exsolution of gas due to the pressure release since drilling. Partial saturation would have no impact on the recalculation of pore-water compositions from aqueous extraction experiments using water-loss porosity data. The largest uncertainty in the pore-water Cl- concentrations recalculated from aqueous extraction and out-diffusion experiments is the magnitude of the anion-accessible fraction of water-loss porosity. General experience of clay-mineral rich formations suggests that the anion-accessible porosity fraction is very often about 0.5 and generally in a range of 0.3 to 0.6 and tends to be inversely correlated with clay-mineral contents. Comparisons of the Cl- concentration in pore water obtained by advective displacement with that recalculated from aqueous extraction of an adjacent core sample suggests a fraction of 0.27 for an Oftringen sample, whereas the same procedure for a Gösgen sample suggests a value of 0.64. The former value for anion-accessible porosity fraction is presumed to be unrepresentative given the local mineralogical heterogeneity at that depth. Through-diffusion experiments with HTO and 36Cl- suggest that the anion-accessible porosity fraction in the Effingen Member at Oftringen and Gösgen is around 0.5. This value is proposed as a typical average for rocks of the Effingen Member, bearing in mind that it varies on a local scale in response to the heterogeneity of lithology and pore-space architecture. The substantial uncertainties associated with the approaches to estimating anion-accessible porosity propagate into the calculated values of in-situ pore-water Cl- concentrations. On the basis of aqueous extraction experiments, and using an anion-accessible porosity fraction of 0.5, Cl- concentrations in the Effingen Member at Oftringen reach a maximum of about 14 g/L in the centre. Cl- decreases upwards and downwards from that, forming a curved depth profile. Cl- contents in the Effingen Member at Gösgen increase with depth from about 3.5 g/L to about 14 g/L at the base of the cored profile (which corresponds to the centre of the formation). Out-diffusion experiments were carried out on four samples from Oftringen, distributed through the Effingen Member. Recalculated Cl- concentrations are similar to those from aqueous extraction for 3 out of the 4 samples, and somewhat lower for one sample. Concentrations of other components, i.e. Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, Sr2+, SO42- and HCO3- cannot be obtained from the aqueous extraction and out-diffusion experimental data because of mineral dissolution and cation exchange reactions during the experiments. Pore-water pH also is not constrained by those extraction experiments. The only experimental approach to obtain complete pore-water compositions for samples from Oftringen and Gösgen is advective displacement of pore water. The sample from Oftringen used for this experiment is from 445 m depth in the upper part of the Effingen Member and gave eluate with 16.5 g/L Cl- whereas aqueous extraction from a nearby sample indicated about 9 g/L Cl-. The sample from Gösgen used for advective displacement is from 123 m depth in the centre of the Effingen Member sequence and gave eluate with about 9 g/L Cl- whereas aqueous extraction gave 11.5 g/L Cl-. In both cases the pore waters have Na-(Ca)-Cl compositions and SO42- concentrations of about 1.1 g/L. The Gösgen sample has a Br/Cl ratio similar to that of sea water, whereas this ratio is lower for the Oftringen sample. Taking account of uncertainties in the applied experimental approaches, it is reasonable to place an upper limit of ca. 20 g/L on Cl- concentration for pore water in the Effingen Member in this area. There are major discrepancies between pore-water SO42- concentrations inferred from aqueous extraction or out-diffusion experiments and those obtained from advective displacement in both the Oftringen and Gösgen cases. A general conclusion is that all or at least part of the discrepancies are attributable to perturbation of the sulphur system and enhancement of SO42- by sulphate mineral dissolution and possibly minor pyrite oxidation during aqueous extraction and out-diffusion. Therefore, data for SO42- calculated from those pore-water sampling methods are considered not to be representative of in-situ conditions. A reference pore-water composition was defined for the Effingen Member in the Jura Südfuss area. It represents the probable upper limits of Cl- contents and corresponding anion and cation concentrations that are reasonably constrained by experimental data. Except for Cl- and possibly Na+ concentrations, this composition is poorly constrained especially with respect to SO42- and Ca2+ concentrations, and pH and alkalinity. Stable isotope compositions, δ18O and δ2H, of pore waters in the Effingen Member at Oftringen plot to the right of the meteoric water line, suggesting that 18O has been enriched by water-rock exchange, which indicates that the pore waters have a long residence time. A long residence time of pore water is supported by the level of dissolved 4He that has accumulated in pore water of the Effingen Member at Oftringen. This is comparable with, or slightly higher than, the amounts of 4He in the Opalinus Clay at Benken. Ground waters were sampled from flowing zones intersected by boreholes at the three locations. The general interpretation is that pore waters and ground-water solutes may have similar origins in Mesozoic and Cenozoic brackish-marine formations waters, but ground-water solutes have been diluted rather more than pore waters by ingress of Tertiary and Quaternary meteoric waters. The available hydrochemical data for pore waters from the Effingen Member at these three locations in the Jura-Südfuss area suggest that the geochemical system evolved slowly over geological periods of time, in which diffusion was an important mechanism of solute transport. The irregularity of Cl- and δ18O profiles and spatial variability of advective ground-water flows in the Malm-Dogger system suggests that palaeohydrogeological and hydrochemical responses to changing tectonic and surface environmental conditions were complex.

Black Holes and Biophysical (Mem)-branes

We argue that the effective theory describing the long-wavelength dynamics of black branes is the same effective theory that describes the dynamics of biophysical membranes. We improve the phase structure of higher-dimensional black rings by considering finite thickness corrections in this effective theory, showing a striking agreement between our analytical results and recent numerical constructions while simultaneously drawing a parallel between gravity and the effective theory of biophysical membranes.

The Kosice meteorite fall: Recovery and strewn field

We provide the circumstances and details of the fireball observation, search expeditions, recovery, strewn field, and physical characteristics of the Kosice meteorite that fell in Slovakia on February 28, 2010. The meteorite was only the 15th case of an observed bolide with a recovered mass and subsequent orbit determination. Despite multiple eyewitness reports of the bolide, only three videos from security cameras in Hungary were used for the strewn field determination and orbit computation. Multiple expeditions of professionals and individual searchers found 218 fragments with total weight of 11.3 kg. The strewn field with the size of 593 km is characterized with respect to the space distribution of the fragments, their mass and size-frequency distribution. This work describes a catalog of 78 fragments, mass, size, volume, fusion crust, names of discoverers, geographic location, and time of discovery, which represents the most complex study of a fresh meteorite fall. From the analytical results, we classified the Kosice meteorite as an ordinary H5 chondrite.

Analytical thinking under distrust - better not to know that one distrusts

It is widely known that people utter an untruth from time to time. Our ability to detect and recognize deception and lies and, in the next step, to respond appropriately is not very far-reaching. We were interested in finding out if distrust triggers non-routine, analytical thought processes and therefore improves the detection of lies without dismissing the truth. We conducted two experiments to investigate the influence of an unconscious form of distrust on our thought processes. In the first experiment, participants had to determine whether a report is truthful or false. The aim of this second experiment was to investigate if this enhanced ability to detect a falsified report correctly is based on analytical thinking taking place. To examine our assumptions, we applied the paradigm of belief bias. The results of the second experiments strongly point out the fact that an unconscious form of distrust triggers and fosters analytical thinking.

Tracing the Evidence: The Use of Evaluation Results in Direct-Democratic Campaigns

Although research on direct-democratic campaigns in Switzerland has intensified in the last decade, detailed information on the use of evidence in campaigns is still lacking. Our research aims to contribute both to research on direct democracy and to research on evidence-based policy making, by analyzing how evaluation results are used in directdemocratic campaigns. In this conceptual paper, the formulation of our hypothesis is based on a model of evaluation influence that traces the different uses of evaluation results in the process of a direct-democratic campaign. We assume that the policy analytical capacity of individual members in parliament, government and administration in the (pre)-parliamentary process fosters the use of evidence in campaigns. In the course of the campaign, symbolic use of evaluation in the form of justification, persuasion or mobilization prevails. We assume that the media is an important player in making transparent how political actors use evidence to support their positions. Evidence itself often remains ambiguous and uncertain, and evaluations are influenced by the values of the evaluator. To be able to make the right decisions, therefore, citizens should learn about possible interpretations in argumentative processes. For us, the context of direct democracy in Switzerland provides the setting for such a discourse that, besides evidence, brings up different opinions, values and beliefs.

Analytical, physiologic, and clinical validation of a radioimmunoassay for measurement of procollagen type III amino terminal propeptide in serum and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid obtained from dogs.

OBJECTIVE To validate a radioimmunoassay for measurement of procollagen type III amino terminal propeptide (PIIINP) concentrations in canine serum and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) and investigate the effects of physiologic and pathologic conditions on PIIINP concentrations. SAMPLE POPULATION Sera from healthy adult (n = 70) and growing dogs (20) and dogs with chronic renal failure (CRF; 10), cardiomyopathy (CMP; 12), or degenerative valve disease (DVD; 26); and sera and BALF from dogs with chronic bronchopneumopathy (CBP; 15) and healthy control dogs (10 growing and 9 adult dogs). PROCEDURE A radioimmunoassay was validated, and a reference range for serum PIIINP (S-PIIINP) concentration was established. Effects of growth, age, sex, weight, CRF, and heart failure on S-PIIINP concentration were analyzed. In CBP-affected dogs, S-PIIINP and BALF-PIIINP concentrations were evaluated. RESULTS The radioimmunoassay had good sensitivity, linearity, precision, and reproducibility and reasonable accuracy for measurement of S-PIIINP and BALF-PIIINP concentrations. The S-PIIINP concentration reference range in adult dogs was 8.86 to 11.48 mug/L. Serum PIIINP concentration correlated with weight and age. Growing dogs had significantly higher S-PIIINP concentrations than adults, but concentrations in CRF-, CMP-, DVD-, or CBP-affected dogs were not significantly different from control values. Mean BALF-PIIINP concentration was significantly higher in CBP-affected dogs than in healthy adults. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE In dogs, renal or cardiac disease or CBP did not significantly affect S-PIIINP concentration; dogs with CBP had high BALF-PIIINP concentrations. Data suggest that the use of PIIINP as a marker of pathologic fibrosis might be limited in growing dogs.

The Dark Side of the Moon: Meta-analytical Impact of Recruitment Strategies on Risk Enrichment in the Clinical High Risk State for Psychosis

Background: The individual risk of developing psychosis after being tested for clinical high-risk (CHR) criteria (posttest risk of psychosis) depends on the underlying risk of the disease of the population from which the person is selected (pretest risk of psychosis), and thus on recruitment strategies. Yet, the impact of recruitment strategies on pretest risk of psychosis is unknown. Methods: Meta-analysis of the pretest risk of psychosis in help-seeking patients selected to undergo CHR assessment: total transitions to psychosis over the pool of patients assessed for potential risk and deemed at risk (CHR+) or not at risk (CHR−). Recruitment strategies (number of outreach activities per study, main target of outreach campaign, and proportion of self-referrals) were the moderators examined in meta-regressions. Results: 11 independent studies met the inclusion criteria, for a total of 2519 (CHR+: n = 1359; CHR−: n = 1160) help-seeking patients undergoing CHR assessment (mean follow-up: 38 months). The overall meta-analytical pretest risk for psychosis in help-seeking patients was 15%, with high heterogeneity (95% CI: 9%–24%, I 2 = 96, P < .001). Recruitment strategies were heterogeneous and opportunistic. Heterogeneity was largely explained by intensive (n = 11, β = −.166, Q = 9.441, P = .002) outreach campaigns primarily targeting the general public (n = 11, β = −1.15, Q = 21.35, P < .001) along with higher proportions of self-referrals (n = 10, β = −.029, Q = 4.262, P = .039), which diluted pretest risk for psychosis in patients undergoing CHR assessment. Conclusions: There is meta-analytical evidence for overall risk enrichment (pretest risk for psychosis at 38monhts = 15%) in help-seeking samples selected for CHR assessment as compared to the general population (pretest risk of psychosis at 38monhts=0.1%). Intensive outreach campaigns predominantly targeting the general population and a higher proportion of self-referrals diluted the pretest risk for psychosis.

Loss on ignition as a method for estimating organic and carbonate content in sediments: reproducibility and comparability of results

Five test runs were performed to assess possible bias when performing the loss on ignition (LOI) method to estimate organic matter and carbonate content of lake sediments. An accurate and stable weight loss was achieved after 2 h of burning pure CaCO3 at 950 °C, whereas LOI of pure graphite at 530 °C showed a direct relation to sample size and exposure time, with only 40-70% of the possible weight loss reached after 2 h of exposure and smaller samples losing weight faster than larger ones. Experiments with a standardised lake sediment revealed a strong initial weight loss at 550 °C, but samples continued to lose weight at a slow rate at exposure of up to 64 h, which was likely the effect of loss of volatile salts, structural water of clay minerals or metal oxides, or of inorganic carbon after the initial burning of organic matter. A further test-run revealed that at 550 °C samples in the centre of the furnace lost more weight than marginal samples. At 950 °C this pattern was still apparent but the differences became negligible. Again, LOI was dependent on sample size. An analytical LOI quality control experiment including ten different laboratories was carried out using each laboratory's own LOI procedure as well as a standardised LOI procedure to analyse three different sediments. The range of LOI values between laboratories measured at 550 °C was generally larger when each laboratory used its own method than when using the standard method. This was similar for 950 °C, although the range of values tended to be smaller. The within-laboratory range of LOI measurements for a given sediment was generally small. Comparisons of the results of the individual and the standardised method suggest that there is a laboratory-specific pattern in the results, probably due to differences in laboratory equipment and/or handling that could not be eliminated by standardising the LOI procedure. Factors such as sample size, exposure time, position of samples in the furnace and the laboratory measuring affected LOI results, with LOI at 550 °C being more susceptible to these factors than LOI at 950 °C. We, therefore, recommend analysts to be consistent in the LOI method used in relation to the ignition temperatures, exposure times, and the sample size and to include information on these three parameters when referring to the method.

Real-time analysis of δ13C- and δD-CH4 in ambient air with laser spectroscopy: method development and first intercomparison results

In situ and simultaneous measurement of the three most abundant isotopologues of methane using mid-infrared laser absorption spectroscopy is demonstrated. A field-deployable, autonomous platform is realized by coupling a compact quantum cascade laser absorption spectrometer (QCLAS) to a preconcentration unit, called trace gas extractor (TREX). This unit enhances CH4 mole fractions by a factor of up to 500 above ambient levels and quantitatively separates interfering trace gases such as N2O and CO2. The analytical precision of the QCLAS isotope measurement on the preconcentrated (750 ppm, parts-per-million, µmole mole−1) methane is 0.1 and 0.5 ‰ for δ13C- and δD-CH4 at 10 min averaging time. Based on repeated measurements of compressed air during a 2-week intercomparison campaign, the repeatability of the TREX–QCLAS was determined to be 0.19 and 1.9 ‰ for δ13C and δD-CH4, respectively. In this intercomparison campaign the new in situ technique is compared to isotope-ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) based on glass flask and bag sampling and real time CH4 isotope analysis by two commercially available laser spectrometers. Both laser-based analyzers were limited to methane mole fraction and δ13C-CH4 analysis, and only one of them, a cavity ring down spectrometer, was capable to deliver meaningful data for the isotopic composition. After correcting for scale offsets, the average difference between TREX–QCLAS data and bag/flask sampling–IRMS values are within the extended WMO compatibility goals of 0.2 and 5 ‰ for δ13C- and δD-CH4, respectively. This also displays the potential to improve the interlaboratory compatibility based on the analysis of a reference air sample with accurately determined isotopic composition.