Increasing Scientific Confidence in Adverse Outcome Pathways: Application of Tailored Bradford-Hill Considerations for Evaluating Weight of Evidence.

Systematic consideration of scientific support is a critical element in developing and, ultimately, using adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) for various regulatory applications. Though weight of evidence (WoE) analysis has been proposed as a basis for assessment of the maturity and level of confidence in an AOP, methodologies and tools are still being formalized. The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Users' Handbook Supplement to the Guidance Document for Developing and Assessing AOPs (OECD 2014a; hereafter referred to as the OECD AOP Handbook) provides tailored Bradford-Hill (BH) considerations for systematic assessment of confidence in a given AOP. These considerations include (1) biological plausibility and (2) empirical support (dose-response, temporality, and incidence) for Key Event Relationships (KERs), and (3) essentiality of key events (KEs). Here, we test the application of these tailored BH considerations and the guidance outlined in the OECD AOP Handbook using a number of case examples to increase experience in more transparently documenting rationales for assigned levels of confidence to KEs and KERs, and to promote consistency in evaluation within and across AOPs. The major lessons learned from experience are documented, and taken together with the case examples, should contribute to better common understanding of the nature and form of documentation required to increase confidence in the application of AOPs for specific uses. Based on the tailored BH considerations and defining questions, a prototype quantitative model for assessing the WoE of an AOP using tools of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is described. The applicability of the approach is also demonstrated using the case example aromatase inhibition leading to reproductive dysfunction in fish. Following the acquisition of additional experience in the development and assessment of AOPs, further refinement of parameterization of the model through expert elicitation is recommended. Overall, the application of quantitative WoE approaches hold promise to enhance the rigor, transparency and reproducibility for AOP WoE determinations and may play an important role in delineating areas where research would have the greatest impact on improving the overall confidence in the AOP.

Increased fibrinogen levels at diagnosis are associated with adverse outcome in patients with acute myeloid leukemia

Increased plasma fibrinogen levels are associated with shortened overall survival (OS) in some solid tumor types. In contrast, the prognostic significance of varying fibrinogen levels in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) at diagnosis is unknown. In this study, we assessed the prognostic significance of fibrinogen levels in AML patients. In a comprehensive retrospective single-center study, we determined the survival rates of 375 consecutive AML patients undergoing at least one cycle of intensive chemotherapy induction treatment. Patients were dichotomized between low (<4.1 g/L) and high fibrinogen levels (≥4.1 g/L) at diagnosis of AML before initiation of treatment. Subsequently, quartile ranges were applied to analyze the association of varying fibrinogen levels on survival. We observed that the rates of complete remission, early death, and admission to intensive care unit were equal in the low versus high fibrinogen group. However, OS was significantly better in the low fibrinogen group (27.3 vs 13.5 months; p = 0.0009) as well as progression-free survival (12.3 vs 7.8 months; p = 0.0076). This survival difference remained significant in the multivariate analysis (p = 0.003). Assessing quartiles of fibrinogen values, we further confirmed this observation. Our data suggest that high fibrinogen levels at diagnosis of AML are associated with unfavorable OS and progression-free survival but not with increased mortality during induction treatment.

Clinical outcome and predictors for adverse events after transcatheter aortic valve implantation with the use of different devices and access routes

Background Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is a treatment option for high-risk patients with severe aortic stenosis. Previous reports focused on a single device or access site, whereas little is known of the combined use of different devices and access sites as selected by the heart team. The purpose of this study is to investigate clinical outcomes of TAVI using different devices and access sites. Methods A consecutive cohort of 200 patients underwent TAVI with the Medtronic CoreValve Revalving system (Medtronic Core Valve LLC, Irvine, CA; n = 130) or the Edwards SAPIEN valve (Edwards Lifesciences LLC, Irvine, CA; n = 70) implanted by either the transfemoral or transapical access route. Results Device success and procedure success were 99% and 95%, respectively, without differences between devices and access site. All-cause mortality was 7.5% at 30 days, with no differences between valve types or access sites. Using multivariable analysis, low body mass index (<20 kg/m2) (odds ratio [OR] 6.6, 95% CI 1.5-29.5) and previous stroke (OR 4.4, 95% CI 1.2-16.8) were independent risk factors for short-term mortality. The VARC-defined combined safety end point occurred in 18% of patients and was driven by major access site complications (8.0%), life-threatening bleeding (8.5%) or severe renal failure (4.5%). Transapical access emerged as independent predictor of adverse outcome for the Valve Academic Research Consortium–combined safety end point (OR 3.3, 95% CI 1.5-7.1). Conclusion A heart team–based selection of devices and access site among patients undergoing TAVI resulted in high device and procedural success. Low body mass index and history of previous stroke were independent predictors of mortality. Transapical access emerged as a risk factor for the Valve Academic Research Consortium–combined safety end point.

VHL inactivation is an important pathway for the development of malignant sporadic pancreatic endocrine tumors

A small subset of familial pancreatic endocrine tumors (PET) arises in patients with von Hippel-Lindau syndrome and these tumors may have an adverse outcome compared to other familial PET. Sporadic PET rarely harbors somatic VHL mutations, but the chromosomal location of the VHL gene is frequently deleted in sporadic PET. A subset of sporadic PET shows active hypoxia signals on mRNA and protein level. To identify the frequency of functionally relevant VHL inactivation in sporadic PET and to examine a possible prognostic significance we correlated epigenetic and genetic VHL alterations with hypoxia signals. VHL mutations were absent in all 37 PETs examined. In 2 out of 35 informative PET (6%) methylation of the VHL promoter region was detected and VHL deletion by fluorescence in situ hybridization was found in 14 out of 79 PET (18%). Hypoxia inducible factor 1alpha (HIF1-alpha), carbonic anhydrase 9 (CA-9), and glucose transporter 1 (GLUT-1) protein was expressed in 19, 27, and 30% of the 152 PETs examined. Protein expression of the HIF1-alpha downstream target CA-9 correlated significantly with the expression of CA-9 RNA (P<0.001), VHL RNA (P<0.05), and VHL deletion (P<0.001) as well as with HIF1-alpha (P<0.005) and GLUT-1 immunohistochemistry (P<0.001). These PET with VHL alterations and signs of hypoxia signalling were characterized by a significantly shortened disease-free survival. We conclude that VHL gene impairment by promoter methylation and VHL deletion in nearly 25% of PET leads to the activation of the HIF-pathway. Our data suggest that VHL inactivation and consecutive hypoxia signals may be a mechanism for the development of sporadic PET with an adverse outcome.

Long-term outcome of acute encephalitis of unknown aetiology in adults

Encephalitis is caused by a variety of conditions, including infections of the brain by a wide range of pathogens. A substantial number of cases of encephalitis defy all attempts at identifying a specific cause. Little is known about the long-term prognosis in patients with encephalitis of unknown aetiology, which complicates their management during the acute illness. To learn more about the prognosis of patients with encephalitis of unknown aetiology, patients in whom no aetiology could be identified were examined in a large, single-centre encephalitis cohort. In addition to analysing the clinical data of the acute illness, surviving patients were assessed by telephone interview a minimum of 2 years after the acute illness by applying a standardized test battery. Of the patients with encephalitis who qualified for inclusion (n = 203), 39 patients (19.2%) had encephalitis of unknown aetiology. The case fatality in these patients was 12.8%. Among the survivors, 53% suffered from various neurological sequelae, most often attention and sensory deficits. Among the features at presentation that were associated with adverse outcome were older age, increased C-reactive protein, coma and a high percentage of polymorphonuclear cells in the cerebrospinal fluid. In conclusion, the outcome in an unselected cohort of patients with encephalitis of unknown aetiology was marked by substantial case fatality and by long-term neurological deficits in approximately one-half of the surviving patients. Certain features on admission predicted an unfavourable outcome.

Outcome at two years of age in a Swiss national cohort of extremely preterm infants born between 2000 and 2008

Background While survival rates of extremely preterm infants have improved over the last decades, the incidence of neurodevelopmental disability (ND) in survivors remains high. Representative current data on the severity of disability and of risk factors associated with poor outcome in this growing population are necessary for clinical guidance and parent counselling. Methods Prospective longitudinal multicentre cohort study of preterm infants born in Switzerland between 240/7 and 276/7 weeks gestational age during 2000–2008. Mortality, adverse outcome (death or severe ND) at two years, and predictors for poor outcome were analysed using multilevel multivariate logistic regression. Neurodevelopment was assessed using Bayley Scales of Infant Development II. Cerebral palsy was graded after the Gross Motor Function Classification System. Results Of 1266 live born infants, 422 (33%) died. Follow-up information was available for 684 (81%) survivors: 440 (64%) showed favourable outcome, 166 (24%) moderate ND, and 78 (11%) severe ND. At birth, lower gestational age, intrauterine growth restriction and absence of antenatal corticosteroids were associated with mortality and adverse outcome (p < 0.001). At 360/7 weeks postmenstrual age, bronchopulmonary dysplasia, major brain injury and retinopathy of prematurity were the main predictors for adverse outcome (p < 0.05). Survival without moderate or severe ND increased from 27% to 39% during the observation period (p = 0.02). Conclusions In this recent Swiss national cohort study of extremely preterm infants, neonatal mortality was determined by gestational age, birth weight, and antenatal corticosteroids while neurodevelopmental outcome was determined by the major neonatal morbidities. We observed an increase of survival without moderate or severe disability.

Usefulness of inducible ventricular tachycardia to predict long-term adverse outcomes in arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy

The role of the electrophysiologic (EP) study for risk stratification in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy is controversial. We investigated the role of inducible sustained monomorphic ventricular tachycardia (SMVT) for the prediction of an adverse outcome (AO), defined as the occurrence of cardiac death, heart transplantation, sudden cardiac death, ventricular fibrillation, ventricular tachycardia with hemodynamic compromise or syncope. Of 62 patients who fulfilled the 2010 Arrhythmogenic Right Ventricular Cardiomyopathy Task Force criteria and underwent an EP study, 30 (48%) experienced an adverse outcome during a median follow-up of 9.8 years. SMVT was inducible in 34 patients (55%), 22 (65%) of whom had an adverse outcome. In contrast, in 28 patients without inducible SMVT, 8 (29%) had an adverse outcome. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed an event-free survival benefit for patients without inducible SMVT (log-rank p = 0.008) with a cumulative survival free of an adverse outcome of 72% (95% confidence interval [CI] 56% to 92%) in the group without inducible SMVT compared to 26% (95% CI 14% to 50%) in the other group after 10 years. The inducibility of SMVT during the EP study (hazard ratio [HR] 2.99, 95% CI 1.23 to 7.27), nonadherence (HR 2.74, 95% CI 1.3 to 5.77), and heart failure New York Heart Association functional class II and III (HR 2.25, 95% CI 1.04 to 4.87) were associated with an adverse outcome on univariate Cox regression analysis. The inducibility of SMVT (HR 2.52, 95% CI 1.03 to 6.16, p = 0.043) and nonadherence (HR 2.34, 95% CI 1.1 to 4.99, p = 0.028) remained as significant predictors on multivariate analysis. This long-term observational data suggest that SMVT inducibility during EP study might predict an adverse outcome in patients with arrhythmogenic right ventricular cardiomyopathy, advocating a role for EP study in risk stratification.

SDHB loss predicts malignancy in pheochromocytomas/sympathethic paragangliomas, but not through hypoxia signalling

Prediction of malignant behaviour of pheochromocytomas/sympathetic paragangliomas (PCCs/PGLs) is very difficult if not impossible on a histopathological basis. In a familial setting, it is well known that succinate dehydrogenase subunit B (SDHB)-associated PCC/PGL very often metastasise. Recently, absence of SDHB expression as measured through immunohistochemistry was shown to be an excellent indicator of the presence of an SDH germline mutation in PCC/PGL. SDHB loss is believed to lead to tumour formation by activation of hypoxia signals. To clarify the potential use of SDHB immunohistochemistry as a marker of malignancy in PCC/PGL and its association with classic hypoxia signalling we examined SDHB, hypoxia inducible factor-1 (Hif-1 ) and its targets CA-9 and GLUT-1 expression on protein level using immunohistochemistry on a tissue micro array on a series of familial and sporadic tumours of 115 patients. Survival data was available for 66 patients. SDHB protein expression was lost in the tumour tissue of 12 of 99 patients. Of those 12 patients, 5 had an SDHB germline mutation, in 4 patients no germline mutation was detected and mutational status remained unknown in parts in 3 patients. Loss of SDHB expression was not associated with increased classic hypoxia signalling as detected by Hif-1 , CA-9 or GLUT-1 staining. Loss of SDHB expression was associated with an adverse outcome. The lack of correlation of SDHB loss with classic hypoxia signals argues against the current hypoxia hypothesis in malignant PCC/PGL. We suggest SDHB protein loss as a marker of adverse outcome both in sporadic and in familial PCC/PGL.

Effectiveness of interventions to improve screening for syphilis in pregnancy: a systematic review and meta-analysis

About 2·1 million pregnant women have active syphilis every year. Without screening and treatment, 69% of these women will have an adverse outcome of pregnancy. The objectives of this study were to review the literature systematically to determine the effectiveness of screening interventions to prevent congenital syphilis and other adverse pregnancy outcomes.

Tumor budding score based on 10 high-power fields is a promising basis for a standardized prognostic scoring system in stage II colorectal cancer

Tumor budding is recognized by the World Health Organization as an additional prognostic factor in colorectal cancer but remains unreported in diagnostic work due to the absence of a standardized scoring method. This study aims to assess the most prognostic and reproducible scoring systems for tumor budding in colorectal cancer. Tumor budding on pancytokeratin-stained whole tissue sections from 105 well-characterized stage II patients was scored by 3 observers using 7 methods: Hase, Nakamura, Ueno, Wang (conventional and rapid method), densest high-power field, and 10 densest high-power fields. The predictive value for clinicopathologic features, the prognostic significance, and interobserver variability of each scoring method was analyzed. Pancytokeratin staining allowed accurate evaluation of tumor buds. Interobserver agreement for 3 observers was excellent for densest high-power field (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.83) and 10 densest high-power fields (intraclass correlation coefficient, 0.91). Agreement was moderate to substantial for the conventional Wang method (κ = 0.46-0.62) and moderate for the rapid method (κ = 0.46-0.58). For Nakamura, moderate agreement (κ = 0.41-0.52) was reached, whereas concordance was fair to moderate for Ueno (κ = 0.39-0.56) and Hase (κ = 0.29-0.51). The Hase, Ueno, densest high-power field, and 10 densest high-power field methods identified a significant association of tumor budding with tumor border configuration. In multivariate analysis, only tumor budding as evaluated in densest high-power field and 10 densest high-power fields had significant prognostic effects on patient survival (P < .01), with high prognostic accuracy over the full 10-year follow-up. Scoring tumor buds in 10 densest high-power fields is a promising method to identify stage II patients at high risk for recurrence in daily diagnostics; it is highly reproducible, accounts for heterogeneity, and has a strong predictive value for adverse outcome.

Long-term results after proximal thoracic aortic redo surgery

Objective: To evaluate early and mid-term results in patients undergoing proximal thoracic aortic redo surgery. Methods: We analyzed 60 patients (median age 60 years, median logistic EuroSCORE 40) who underwent proximal thoracic aortic redo surgery between January 2005 and April 2012. Outcome and risk factors were analyzed. Results: In hospital mortality was 13%, perioperative neurologic injury was 7%. Fifty percent of patients underwent redo surgery in an urgent or emergency setting. In 65%, partial or total arch replacement with or without conventional or frozen elephant trunk extension was performed. The preoperative logistic EuroSCORE I confirmed to be a reliable predictor of adverse outcome- (ROC 0.786, 95%CI 0.64–0.93) as did the new EuroSCORE II model: ROC 0.882 95%CI 0.78–0.98. Extensive individual logistic EuroSCORE I levels more than 67 showed an OR of 7.01, 95%CI 1.43–34.27. A EuroSCORE II larger than 28 showed an OR of 4.44 (95%CI 1.4–14.06). Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified a critical preoperative state (OR 7.96, 95%CI 1.51–38.79) but not advanced age (OR 2.46, 95%CI 0.48–12.66) as the strongest independent predictor of in-hospital mortality. Median follow-up was 23 months (1–52 months). One year and five year actuarial survival rates were 83% and 69% respectively. Freedom from reoperation during follow-up was 100%. Conclusions: Despite a substantial early attrition rate in patients presenting with a critical preoperative state, proximal thoracic aortic redo surgery provides excellent early and mid-term results. Higher EuroSCORE I and II levels and a critical preoperative state but not advanced age are independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. As a consequence, age alone should no longer be regarded as a contraindication for surgical treatment in this particular group of patient

Non-coding keratin variants associate with liver fibrosis progression in patients with hemochromatosis

Background Keratins 8 and 18 (K8/K18) are intermediate filament proteins that protect the liver from various forms of injury. Exonic K8/K18 variants associate with adverse outcome in acute liver failure and with liver fibrosis progression in patients with chronic hepatitis C infection or primary biliary cirrhosis. Given the association of K8/K18 variants with end-stage liver disease and progression in several chronic liver disorders, we studied the importance of keratin variants in patients with hemochromatosis. Methods The entire K8/K18 exonic regions were analyzed in 162 hemochromatosis patients carrying homozygous C282Y HFE (hemochromatosis gene) mutations. 234 liver-healthy subjects were used as controls. Exonic regions were PCR-amplified and analyzed using denaturing high-performance liquid chromatography and DNA sequencing. Previously-generated transgenic mice overexpressing K8 G62C were studied for their susceptibility to iron overload. Susceptibility to iron toxicity of primary hepatocytes that express K8 wild-type and G62C was also assessed. Results We identified amino-acid-altering keratin heterozygous variants in 10 of 162 hemochromatosis patients (6.2%) and non-coding heterozygous variants in 6 additional patients (3.7%). Two novel K8 variants (Q169E/R275W) were found. K8 R341H was the most common amino-acid altering variant (4 patients), and exclusively associated with an intronic KRT8 IVS7+10delC deletion. Intronic, but not amino-acid-altering variants associated with the development of liver fibrosis. In mice, or ex vivo, the K8 G62C variant did not affect iron-accumulation in response to iron-rich diet or the extent of iron-induced hepatocellular injury. Conclusion In patients with hemochromatosis, intronic but not exonic K8/K18 variants associate with liver fibrosis development.

Interdisciplinary expert consensus document on management of type B aortic dissection

An expert multidisciplinary panel in the treatment of type B aortic dissection reviewed available literature to develop treatment algorithms using a consensus method. Data from 63 studies published from 2006 to 2012 were retrieved for a total of 1,548 patients treated medically, 1,706 patients who underwent open surgery, and 3,457 patients who underwent thoracic endovascular repair (TEVAR). For acute (first 2 weeks) type B aortic dissection, the pooled early mortality rate was 6.4% with medical treatment and increased to 10.2% with TEVAR and 17.5% with open surgery, mostly for complicated cases. Limited data for treatment of subacute (2 to 6 weeks after onset) type B aortic dissection showed an early mortality rate of 2.8% with TEVAR. In chronic (after 6 weeks) type B aortic dissection, 5-year survival of 60% to 80% was expected with medical therapy because complications were likely. If interventional treatment was applied, the pooled early mortality rate was 6.6% with TEVAR and 8.0% with open surgery. Medical treatment of uncomplicated acute, subacute, and chronic type B aortic dissection is managed with close image monitoring. Hemodynamic instability, organ malperfusion, increasing periaortic hematoma, and hemorrhagic pleural effusion on imaging identify patients with complicated acute type B aortic dissection requiring urgent aortic repair. Recurrence of symptoms, aortic aneurysmal dilation (>55 mm), or a yearly increase of >4 mm after the acute phase are predictors of adverse outcome and need for delayed aortic repair ("complicated chronic aortic dissections"). The expert panel is aware that this consensus document provides proposal for strategies based on nonrobust evidence for management of type B aortic dissection, and that literature results were largely heterogeneous and should be interpreted cautiously.

In bacterial meningitis cortical brain damage is associated with changes in parenchymal MMP-9/TIMP-1 ratio and increased collagen type IV degradation

Adverse outcome in bacterial meningitis is associated with the breakdown of the blood-brain barrier (BBB). Matrix-metalloproteinases (MMPs) facilitate this process by degradation of components of the BBB. This in turn results in acute complications of bacterial meningitis including edema formation, increased intracranial pressure and subsequent ischemia. We determined the parenchymal balance of MMP-9 and TIMP-1 (tissue inhibitor of MMP) and the structural integrity of the BBB in relation to cortical damage in an infant rat model of pneumococcal meningitis. The data demonstrate that the extent of cortical damage is significantly associated with parenchymal gelatinolytic activity and collagen type IV degradation. The increased gelatinolysis was found to be associated with a brain parenchymal imbalance of MMP-9/TIMP-1. These findings provide support to the concept that MMPs mediated disruption of the BBB contributes to the pathogenesis of bacterial meningitis and that protection of the vascular unit may have neuroprotective potential.

Coronary bypass surgery in patients treated with clopidogrel. Is it safe?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Current guidelines for the management of acute coronary syndrome clearly recommend that clopidogrel should be started before diagnostic coronary angiography. If patients undergo coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) early after clopidogrel loading or during continued exposure, it seems reasonable to expect an increase in bleeding complications. RECENT FINDINGS: Earlier studies may have overestimated the risk of bleeding in patient undergoing CABG with prior clopidogrel exposure (5-10-fold increase). Some conflicting results are reported in literature. As reexploration because of excessive bleeding is concerned, a two to three-fold increase must be expected, which is demonstrated in actual trials properly matched to confounding factors. Discontinuation of clopidogrel for 5-7 days prior to urgent CABG as recommended by guidelines is not well adopted in clinical practice for several reasons. SUMMARY: There is a moderately elevated risk of bleeding complications after CABG due to prior clopidogrel exposure alone. However, in clinical practice this risk is added often to patients who carry already elevated surgical risks (urgent procedures, worse coronary anatomy, history of previous myocardial infarction and prior percutaneous intervention), and after bleeding complications singular patients may suffer from consecutive adverse outcome. Cessation of clopidogrel in patients before CABG clearly prolongs hospitalization time and has an estimated 1% risk of coronary events during the waiting period. Risk and benefit have to be balanced in every individual case.