High Resolution Transmission Spectroscopy as a Diagnostic for Jovian Exoplanet Atmospheres: Constraints from Theoretical Models

We present high resolution transmission spectra of giant planet atmospheres from a coupled 3-D atmospheric dynamics and transmission spectrum model that includes Doppler shifts which arise from winds and planetary motion. We model jovian planets covering more than two orders of magnitude in incident flux, corresponding to planets with 0.9 to 55 day orbital periods around solar-type stars. The results of our 3-D dynamical models reveal certain aspects of high resolution transmission spectra that are not present in simple 1-D models. We find that the hottest planets experience strong substellar to anti-stellar (SSAS) winds, resulting in transmission spectra with net blue shifts of up to 3 km s−1, whereas less irradiated planets show almost no net Doppler shifts. Compared to 1-D models, peak line strengths are significantly reduced for the hottest atmospheres owing to Doppler broadening from a combination of rotation (which is faster for close-in planets under the assumption of tidal locking) and atmospheric winds. Finally, high resolution transmission spectra may be useful in studying the atmospheres of exoplanets with optically thick clouds since line cores for very strong transitions should remain optically thick to very high altitude. High resolution transmission spectra are an excellent observational test for the validity of 3-D atmospheric dynamics models, because they provide a direct probe of wind structures and heat circulation. Ground-based exoplanet spectroscopy is currently on the verge of being able to verify some of our modeling predictions, most notably the dependence of SSAS winds on insolation. We caution that interpretation of high resolution transmission spectra based on 1-D atmospheric models may be inadequate, as 3-D atmospheric motions can produce a noticeable effect on the absorption signatures.

Pasture degradation modifies the water and carbon cycles of the Tibetan highlands

The Tibetan Plateau has a significant role with regard to atmospheric circulation and the monsoon in particular. Changes between a closed plant cover and open bare soil are one of the striking effects of land use degradation observed with unsustainable range management or climate change, but experiments investigating changes of surface properties and processes together with atmospheric feedbacks are rare and have not been undertaken in the world's two largest alpine ecosystems, the alpine steppe and the Kobresia pygmaea pastures of the Tibetan Plateau. We connected measurements of micro-lysimeter, chamber, 13C labelling, and eddy covariance and combined the observations with land surface and atmospheric models, adapted to the highland conditions. This allowed us to analyse how three degradation stages affect the water and carbon cycle of pastures on the landscape scale within the core region of the Kobresia pygmaea ecosystem. The study revealed that increasing degradation of the Kobresia turf affects carbon allocation and strongly reduces the carbon uptake, compromising the function of Kobresia pastures as a carbon sink. Pasture degradation leads to a shift from transpiration to evaporation while a change in the sum of evapotranspiration over a longer period cannot be confirmed. The results show an earlier onset of convection and cloud generation, likely triggered by a shift in evapotranspiration timing when dominated by evaporation. Consequently, precipitation starts earlier and clouds decrease the incoming solar radiation. In summary, the changes in surface properties by pasture degradation found on the highland have a significant influence on larger scales.

ANALYTICAL MODELS OF EXOPLANETARY ATMOSPHERES. I. ATMOSPHERIC DYNAMICS VIA THE SHALLOW WATER SYSTEM

Within the context of exoplanetary atmospheres, we present a comprehensive linear analysis of forced, damped, magnetized shallow water systems, exploring the effects of dimensionality, geometry (Cartesian, pseudo-spherical, and spherical), rotation, magnetic tension, and hydrodynamic and magnetic sources of friction. Across a broad range of conditions, we find that the key governing equation for atmospheres and quantum harmonic oscillators are identical, even when forcing (stellar irradiation), sources of friction (molecular viscosity, Rayleigh drag, and magnetic drag), and magnetic tension are included. The global atmospheric structure is largely controlled by a single key parameter that involves the Rossby and Prandtl numbers. This near-universality breaks down when either molecular viscosity or magnetic drag acts non-uniformly across latitude or a poloidal magnetic field is present, suggesting that these effects will introduce qualitative changes to the familiar chevron-shaped feature witnessed in simulations of atmospheric circulation. We also find that hydrodynamic and magnetic sources of friction have dissimilar phase signatures and affect the flow in fundamentally different ways, implying that using Rayleigh drag to mimic magnetic drag is inaccurate. We exhaustively lay down the theoretical formalism (dispersion relations, governing equations, and time-dependent wave solutions) for a broad suite of models. In all situations, we derive the steady state of an atmosphere, which is relevant to interpreting infrared phase and eclipse maps of exoplanetary atmospheres. We elucidate a pinching effect that confines the atmospheric structure to be near the equator. Our suite of analytical models may be used to develop decisively physical intuition and as a reference point for three-dimensional magnetohydrodynamic simulations of atmospheric circulation.

Comparison of co-located independent ground-based middle atmospheric wind and temperature measurements with numerical weather prediction models

High-resolution, ground-based and independent observations including co-located wind radiometer, lidar stations, and infrasound instruments are used to evaluate the accuracy of general circulation models and data-constrained assimilation systems in the middle atmosphere at northern hemisphere midlatitudes. Systematic comparisons between observations, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses including the recent Integrated Forecast System cycles 38r1 and 38r2, the NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses, and the free-running climate Max Planck Institute–Earth System Model–Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) are carried out in both temporal and spectral dom ains. We find that ECMWF and MERRA are broadly consistent with lidar and wind radiometer measurements up to ~40 km. For both temperature and horizontal wind components, deviations increase with altitude as the assimilated observations become sparser. Between 40 and 60 km altitude, the standard deviation of the mean difference exceeds 5 K for the temperature and 20 m/s for the zonal wind. The largest deviations are observed in winter when the variability from large-scale planetary waves dominates. Between lidar data and MPI-ESM-LR, there is an overall agreement in spectral amplitude down to 15–20 days. At shorter time scales, the variability is lacking in the model by ~10 dB. Infrasound observations indicate a general good agreement with ECWMF wind and temperature products. As such, this study demonstrates the potential of the infrastructure of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research Infrastructure in Europe project that integrates various measurements and provides a quantitative understanding of stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling for numerical weather prediction applications.

M-AARE - Coupling atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models in the Aare river basin, Switzerland

The triggering mechanism and the temporal evolution of large flood events, especially of worst-case scenarios, are not yet fully understood. Consequently, the cumulative losses of extreme floods are unknown. To study the link between weather conditions, discharges and flood losses it is necessary to couple atmospheric, hydrological, hydrodynamic and damage models. The objective of the M-AARE project is to test the potentials and opportunities of a model chain that relates atmospheric conditions to flood losses or risks. The M-AARE model chain is a set of coupled models consisting of four main components: the precipitation module, the hydrology module, the hydrodynamic module, and the damage module. The models are coupled in a cascading framework with harmonized time-steps. First exploratory applications show that the one way coupling of the WRF-PREVAH-BASEMENT models has been achieved and provides promising new insights for a better understanding of key aspects in flood risk analysis.

Circulation dynamics and its influence on European and Mediterranean January-April climate over the past half millennium: results and insights from instrumental data, documentary evidence and coupled climate models

We use long instrumental temperature series together with available field reconstructions of sea-level pressure (SLP) and three-dimensional climate model simulations to analyze relations between temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation patterns over much of Europe and the Mediterranean for the late winter/early spring (January–April, JFMA) season. A Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) investigates interannual to interdecadal covariability between a new gridded SLP field reconstruction and seven long instrumental temperature series covering the past 250 years. We then present and discuss prominent atmospheric circulation patterns related to anomalous warm and cold JFMA conditions within different European areas spanning the period 1760–2007. Next, using a data assimilation technique, we link gridded SLP data with a climate model (EC-Bilt-Clio) for a better dynamical understanding of the relationship between large scale circulation and European climate. We thus present an alternative approach to reconstruct climate for the pre-instrumental period based on the assimilated model simulations. Furthermore, we present an independent method to extend the dynamic circulation analysis for anomalously cold European JFMA conditions back to the sixteenth century. To this end, we use documentary records that are spatially representative for the long instrumental records and derive, through modern analogs, large-scale SLP, surface temperature and precipitation fields. The skill of the analog method is tested in the virtual world of two three-dimensional climate simulations (ECHO-G and HadCM3). This endeavor offers new possibilities to both constrain climate model into a reconstruction mode (through the assimilation approach) and to better asses documentary data in a quantitative way.

Changing correlation structures of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation from 1000 to 2100 AD

Atmospheric circulation modes are important concepts in understanding the variability of atmospheric dynamics. Assuming their spatial patterns to be fixed, such modes are often described by simple indices from rather short observational data sets. The increasing length of reanalysis products allows these concepts and assumptions to be scrutinised. Here we investigate the stability of spatial patterns of Northern Hemisphere teleconnections by using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis as well as several control and transient millennium-scale simulations with coupled models. The observed and simulated centre of action of the two major teleconnection patterns, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and to some extent the Pacific North American (PNA), are not stable in time. The currently observed dipole pattern of the NAO, its centre of action over Iceland and the Azores, split into a north–south dipole pattern in the western Atlantic with a wave train pattern in the eastern part, connecting the British Isles with West Greenland and the eastern Mediterranean during the period 1940–1969 AD. The PNA centres of action over Canada are shifted southwards and over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico during the period 1915–1944 AD. The analysis further shows that shifts in the centres of action of either teleconnection pattern are not related to changes in the external forcing applied in transient simulations of the last millennium. Such shifts in their centres of action are accompanied by changes in the relation of local precipitation and temperature with the overlying atmospheric mode. These findings further undermine the assumption of stationarity between local climate/proxy variability and large-scale dynamics inherent when using proxy-based reconstructions of atmospheric modes, and call for a more robust understanding of atmospheric variability on decadal timescales.

Atmospheric Dynamics of Hot Exoplanets

The characterization of exoplanetary atmospheres has come of age in the last decade, as astronomical techniques now allow for albedos, chemical abundances, temperature profiles and maps, rotation periods and even wind speeds to be measured. Atmospheric dynamics sets the background state of density, temperature and velocity that determines or influences the spectral and temporal appearance of an exoplanetary atmosphere. Hot exoplanets are most amenable to these characterization techniques; in the present review, we focus on highly-irradiated, large exoplanets (the "hot Jupiters"), as astronomical data begin to confront theoretical questions. We summarize the basic atmospheric quantities inferred from the astronomical observations. We review the state of the art by addressing a series of current questions and look towards the future by considering a separate set of exploratory questions. Attaining the next level of understanding will require a concerted effort of constructing multi-faceted, multi-wavelength datasets for benchmark objects. Understanding clouds presents a formidable obstacle, as they introduce degeneracies into the interpretation of spectra, yet their properties and existence are directly influenced by atmospheric dynamics. Confronting general circulation models with these multi-faceted, multi-wavelength datasets will help us understand these and other degeneracies. The coming decade will witness a decisive confrontation of theory and simulation by the next generation of astronomical data.

ATMOSPHERIC RETRIEVAL ANALYSIS OF THE DIRECTLY IMAGED EXOPLANET HR 8799b

Directly imaged exoplanets are unexplored laboratories for the application of the spectral and temperature retrieval method, where the chemistry and composition of their atmospheres are inferred from inverse modeling of the available data. As a pilot study, we focus on the extrasolar gas giant HR 8799b, for which more than 50 data points are available. We upgrade our non-linear optimal estimation retrieval method to include a phenomenological model of clouds that requires the cloud optical depth and monodisperse particle size to be specified. Previous studies have focused on forward models with assumed values of the exoplanetary properties; there is no consensus on the best-fit values of the radius, mass, surface gravity, and effective temperature of HR 8799b. We show that cloud-free models produce reasonable fits to the data if the atmosphere is of super-solar metallicity and non-solar elemental abundances. Intermediate cloudy models with moderate values of the cloud optical depth and micron-sized particles provide an equally reasonable fit to the data and require a lower mean molecular weight. We report our best-fit values for the radius, mass, surface gravity, and effective temperature of HR 8799b. The mean molecular weight is about 3.8, while the carbon-to-oxygen ratio is about unity due to the prevalence of carbon monoxide. Our study emphasizes the need for robust claims about the nature of an exoplanetary atmosphere to be based on analyses involving both photometry and spectroscopy and inferred from beyond a few photometric data points, such as are typically reported for hot Jupiters.

Impact of a Reduced Arctic Sea Ice Cover on Ocean and Atmospheric Properties

The Arctic sea ice cover declined over the last few decades and reached a record minimum in 2007, with a slight recovery thereafter. Inspired by this the authors investigate the response of atmospheric and oceanic properties to a 1-yr period of reduced sea ice cover. Two ensembles of equilibrium and transient simulations are produced with the Community Climate System Model. A sea ice change is induced through an albedo change of 1 yr. The sea ice area and thickness recover in both ensembles after 3 and 5 yr, respectively. The sea ice anomaly leads to changes in ocean temperature and salinity to a depth of about 200 m in the Arctic Basin. Further, the salinity and temperature changes in the surface layer trigger a “Great Salinity Anomaly” in the North Atlantic that takes roughly 8 yr to travel across the North Atlantic back to high latitudes. In the atmosphere the changes induced by the sea ice anomaly do not last as long as in the ocean. The response in the transient and equilibrium simulations, while similar overall, differs in specific regional and temporal details. The surface air temperature increases over the Arctic Basin and the anomaly extends through the whole atmospheric column, changing the geopotential height fields and thus the storm tracks. The patterns of warming and thus the position of the geopotential height changes vary in the two ensembles. While the equilibrium simulation shifts the storm tracks to the south over the eastern North Atlantic and Europe, the transient simulation shifts the storm tracks south over the western North Atlantic and North America. The authors propose that the overall reduction in sea ice cover is important for producing ocean anomalies; however, for atmospheric anomalies the regional location of the sea ice anomalies is more important. While observed trends in Arctic sea ice are large and exceed those simulated by comprehensive climate models, there is little evidence based on this particular model that the seasonal loss of sea ice (e.g., as occurred in 2007) would constitute a threshold after which the Arctic would exhibit nonlinear, irreversible, or strongly accelerated sea ice loss. Caution should be exerted when extrapolating short-term trends to future sea ice behavior.

Radiocarbon dating of modern peat profiles: Pre- and post-bomb C-14 variations in the construction of age-depth models

We present studies of 9 modern (up to 400-yr-old) peat sections from Slovenia, Switzerland, Austria, Italy, and Finland. Precise radiocarbon dating of modern samples is possible due to the large bomb peak of atmospheric 14C concentration in 1963 and the following rapid decline in the 14C level. All the analyzed 14C profiles appeared concordant with the shape of the bomb peak of atmospheric 14C concentration, integrated over some time interval with a length specific to the peat section. In the peat layers covered by the bomb peak, calendar ages of individual peat samples could be determined almost immediately, with an accuracy of 23 yr. In the pre-bomb sections, the calendar ages of individual dated samples are determined in the form of multi-modal probability distributions of about 300 yr wide (about AD 16501950). However, simultaneous use of the post-bomb and pre-bomb 14C dates, and lithological information, enabled the rejection of most modes of probability distributions in the pre-bomb section. In effect, precise age-depth models of the post-bomb sections have been extended back in time, into the wiggly part of the 14C calibration curve.

Impact of oceanic circulation changes on atmospheric δ¹³ CO₂

δ¹³ CO₂ measured in Antarctic ice cores provides constraints on oceanic and terrestrial carbon cycle processes linked with millennial-scale changes in atmospheric CO₂. However, the interpretation of δ¹³ CO₂ is not straight-forward. Using carbon isotope-enabled versions of the LOVECLIM and Bern3D models, we perform a set of sensitivity experiments in which the formation rates of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW), North Pacific Deep Water (NPDW), Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), and Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW) are varied. We study the impact of these circulation changes on atmospheric δ¹³ CO₂ as well as on the oceanic δ¹³ CO₂ distribution. In general, we find that the formation rates of AABW, NADW, NPDW, and AAIW are negatively correlated with changes in δ¹³ CO₂: namely, strong oceanic ventilation decreases atmospheric δ¹³ CO₂. However, since large-scale oceanic circulation reorganizations also impact nutrient utilization and the Earth’s climate, the relationship between atmospheric δ¹³ CO₂ levels and ocean ventilation rate is not unequivocal. In both models atmospheric δ¹³ CO₂ is very sensitive to changes in AABW formation rates: increased AABW formation enhances the transport of low δ¹³ CO₂ waters to the surface and decreases atmospheric δ¹³ CO₂. By contrast, the impact of NADW changes on atmospheric δ¹³ CO₂ is less robust and might be model dependent. This results from complex interplay between global climate, carbon cycle, and the formation rate of NADW, a water body characterized by relatively high δ¹³ CO₂.

Validation of the Swiss methane emission inventory by atmospheric observations and inverse modelling

Atmospheric inverse modelling has the potential to provide observation-based estimates of greenhouse gas emissions at the country scale, thereby allowing for an independent validation of national emission inventories. Here, we present a regional-scale inverse modelling study to quantify the emissions of methane (CH₄) from Switzerland, making use of the newly established CarboCount-CH measurement network and a high-resolution Lagrangian transport model. In our reference inversion, prior emissions were taken from the "bottom-up" Swiss Greenhouse Gas Inventory (SGHGI) as published by the Swiss Federal Office for the Environment in 2014 for the year 2012. Overall we estimate national CH₄ emissions to be 196 ± 18 Gg yr⁻¹ for the year 2013 (1σ uncertainty). This result is in close agreement with the recently revised SGHGI estimate of 206 ± 33 Gg yr⁻¹ as reported in 2015 for the year 2012. Results from sensitivity inversions using alternative prior emissions, uncertainty covariance settings, large-scale background mole fractions, two different inverse algorithms (Bayesian and extended Kalman filter), and two different transport models confirm the robustness and independent character of our estimate. According to the latest SGHGI estimate the main CH₄ source categories in Switzerland are agriculture (78 %), waste handling (15 %) and natural gas distribution and combustion (6 %). The spatial distribution and seasonal variability of our posterior emissions suggest an overestimation of agricultural CH₄ emissions by 10 to 20 % in the most recent SGHGI, which is likely due to an overestimation of emissions from manure handling. Urban areas do not appear as emission hotspots in our posterior results, suggesting that leakages from natural gas distribution are only a minor source of CH₄ in Switzerland. This is consistent with rather low emissions of 8.4 Gg yr⁻¹ reported by the SGHGI but inconsistent with the much higher value of 32 Gg yr⁻¹ implied by the EDGARv4.2 inventory for this sector. Increased CH₄ emissions (up to 30 % compared to the prior) were deduced for the north-eastern parts of Switzerland. This feature was common to most sensitivity inversions, which is a strong indicator that it is a real feature and not an artefact of the transport model and the inversion system. However, it was not possible to assign an unambiguous source process to the region. The observations of the CarboCount-CH network provided invaluable and independent information for the validation of the national bottom-up inventory. Similar systems need to be sustained to provide independent monitoring of future climate agreements.