145 resultados para predictive value


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Instruments for on-farm determination of colostrum quality such as refractometers and densimeters are increasingly used in dairy farms. The colour of colostrum is also supposed to reflect its quality. A paler or mature milk-like colour is associated with a lower colostrum value in terms of its general composition compared with a more yellowish and darker colour. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationships between colour measurement of colostrum using the CIELAB colour space (CIE L*=from white to black, a*=from red to green, b*=from yellow to blue, chroma value G=visual perceived colourfulness) and its composition. Dairy cow colostrum samples (n=117) obtained at 4·7±1·5 h after parturition were analysed for immunoglobulin G (IgG) by ELISA and for fat, protein and lactose by infrared spectroscopy. For colour measurements, a calibrated spectrophotometer was used. At a cut-off value of 50 mg IgG/ml, colour measurement had a sensitivity of 50·0%, a specificity of 49·5%, and a negative predictive value of 87·9%. Colostral IgG concentration was not correlated with the chroma value G, but with relative lightness L*. While milk fat content showed a relationship to the parameters L*, a*, b* and G from the colour measurement, milk protein content was not correlated with a*, but with L*, b*, and G. Lactose concentration in colostrum showed only a relationship with b* and G. In conclusion, parameters of the colour measurement showed clear relationships to colostral IgG, fat, protein and lactose concentration in dairy cows. Implementation of colour measuring devices in automatic milking systems and milking parlours might be a potential instrument to access colostrum quality as well as detecting abnormal milk.

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Objectives: To examine the predictive value of early improvement for short- and long-term outcome in the treatment of depressive female inpatients and to explore the influence of comorbid disorders (CD). Methods: Archival data of a naturalistic sample of 277 female inpatients diagnosed with a depressive disorder was analyzed assessing the BDI at baseline, after 20 days and 30 days, posttreatment, and after 3 to 6 months at follow-up. Early improvement, defined as a decrease in the BDI score of at least 30% after 20 and after 30 days, and CD were analyzed using binary logistic regression. Results: Both early improvement definitions were predictive of remission at posttreatment. Early improvement after 30 days showed a sustained treatment effect in the follow-up phase, whereas early improvement after 20 days failed to show a persistent effect regarding remission at follow-up. CD were not significantly related neither at posttreatment nor at follow-up. At no time point CD moderated the prediction by early improvement. Conclusions: We show that early improvement is a valid predictor for short-term remission and at follow-up in an inpatient setting. CD did not predict outcome. Further studies are needed to identify patient subgroups amenable to more tailored treatments.

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Objectives The present study investigated the predictive value of the explicit and implicit affiliation motive for social behavior in sport competitions. From an information processing perspective, an explicit motive is linked to verbal cues and respondent behavior. The implicit motive in turn is linked to nonverbal stimuli and operant behavior (McClelland, Koestner, & Weinberger, 1989; Schultheiss, 2008). Both respondent affiliative behavior (e.g., verbal interactions with teammates) and operant nonverbal social behavior (e.g., pleasant to opponents) can be observed in racquet sports team competitions. Design & Methods Fifty-two male racquet sportsmen completed the Personality Research Form (explicit affiliation motive) and the Operant Motive Test (implicit affiliation motive). Motive measures were used to predict social behavior during competitions using multiple regression analyses. To this aim real competitive matches were videotaped and analyzed. Results Results show that the explicit affiliation motive is associated with time spent in verbal team contact. The implicit affiliation motive, by contrast, is linked to pleasant nonverbal behavior shown toward opponents. Conclusions Findings suggest that implicit and explicit affiliation motives predict different kinds of social behavior in sports competition respectively. Indirect motive measures may be of additional predictive value for different behavior in real sports settings.

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OBJECTIVE To evaluate treatment response of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) with a new real-time imaging fusion technique of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS) with multi-slice detection computed tomography (CT) in comparison to conventional post-interventional follow-up. MATERIAL AND METHODS 40 patients with HCC (26 male, ages 46-81 years) were evaluated 24 hours after TACE using CEUS with ultrasound volume navigation and image fusion with CT compared to non-enhanced CT and follow-up contrast-enhanced CT after 6-8 weeks. Reduction of tumor vascularization to less than 25% was regarded as "successful" treatment, whereas reduction to levels >25% was considered as "partial" treatment response. Homogenous lipiodol retention was regarded as successful treatment in non-enhanced CT. RESULTS Post-interventional image fusion of CEUS with CT was feasible in all 40 patients. In 24 patients (24/40), post-interventional image fusion with CEUS revealed residual tumor vascularity, that was confirmed by contrast-enhanced CT 6-8 weeks later in 24/24 patients. In 16 patients (16/40), post-interventional image fusion with CEUS demonstrated successful treatment, but follow-up CT detected residual viable tumor (6/16). Non-enhanced CT did not identify any case of treatment failure. Image fusion with CEUS assessed treatment efficacy with a specificity of 100%, sensitivity of 80% and a positive predictive value of 1 (negative predictive value 0.63). CONCLUSIONS Image fusion of CEUS with CT allows a reliable, highly specific post-interventional evaluation of embolization response with good sensitivity without any further radiation exposure. It can detect residual viable tumor at early state, resulting in a close patient monitoring or re-therapy.

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PRINCIPLES Prediction of arrhythmic events (AEs) has gained importance with the availability of implantable cardioverter-defibrillators (ICDs), but is still imprecise. This study evaluated the innovative Wedensky modulation index (WMI) as predictor of AEs. METHODS In this prospective cohort, 179 patients with coronary artery disease (CAD) referred for AE risk assessment underwent baseline evaluation including measurement of R-/T-wave WMI (WMI(RT)) and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). Two endpoints were assessed 3 years after the baseline evaluation: sudden cardiac death or appropriate ICD event (EP1) and any cardiac death or appropriate ICD event (EP2). Associations between baseline predictors (WMI(RT) and LVEF) and endpoints were evaluated in regression models. RESULTS Only three patients were lost to follow-up. EP1 and EP2 occurred in 24 and 27 patients, respectively. WMI(RT) (odds ratio [OR] per 1 point increase for EP1 20.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.8-221.4, p = 0.014, and for EP2 73.3, 95% CI 6.6-817.7, p <0.001) and LVEF (OR per 1% increase for EP1 0.94, 95% CI 0.90-0.99, p = 0.013, and for EP2 0.93, 95% CI 0.89-0.97, p = 0.002) were significantly associated with both endpoints. In bivariable regression controlled for LVEF, WMI(RT) was independently associated with EP1 (p = 0.047) and EP2 (p = 0.007). The combination of WMI(RT) ≥0.60 and LVEF ≤30% resulted in a positive predictive value of 36% for EP1 and 50% for EP2. CONCLUSIONS WMI(RT) is a significant predictor of AEs independent of LVEF and has potential to improve AE risk prediction in CAD patients. However, WMI(RT) should be evaluated in larger and independent samples before recommendations for clinical routine can be made.

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Objectives: Depression is associated with poor prognosis in patients with cardiovascular disease (CVD). We hypothesized that depressive symptoms at discharge from a cardiac rehabilitation program are associated with an increased risk of future CVD-related hospitalizations. Methods: We examined 486 CVD patients (mean age = 59.8 ± 11.2) who enrolled in a comprehensive 3-month rehabilitation program and completed the depression subscale of the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS-D). At follow-up we evaluated the predictive value of depressive symptoms for CVD-related hospitalizations, controlling for sociodemographic factors, cardiovascular risk factors, and disease severity. Results: During a mean follow-up of 41.5 ± 15.6 months, 63 patients experienced a CVD-related hospitalization. The percentage of depressive patients (HADS-D ≥ 8) decreased from 16.9% at rehabilitation entry to 10.7% at discharge. Depressive symptoms at discharge from rehabilitation were a significant predictor of outcome (HR 1.32, 95% CI 1.09–1.60; p =0.004). Patients with clinically relevant depressive symptoms at discharge had a 2.5-fold increased relative risk of poor cardiac prognosis compared to patients without clinically relevant depressive symptoms independently of other prognostic variables. Conclusion: In patients with CVD, depressive symptoms at discharge from rehabilitation indicated a poor cardiac prognosis.

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Abstract Previous work highlighted the possibility that musical training has an influence on cognitive functioning. The suggested reason for this influence is the strong recruitment of attention, planning, and working memory functions during playing a musical instrument. The purpose of the present work was twofold, namely to evaluate the general relationship between pre-stimulus electrophysiological activity and cognition, and more specifically the influence of musical expertise on working memory functions. With this purpose in mind, we used covariance mapping analyses to evaluate whether pre-stimulus electroencephalographic activity is predictive for reaction time during a visual working memory task (Sternberg paradigm) in musicians and non-musicians. In line with our hypothesis, we replicated previous findings pointing to a general predictive value of pre-stimulus activity for working memory performance. Most importantly, we also provide first evidence for an influence of musical expertise on working memory performance that could distinctively be predicted by pre-stimulus spectral power. Our results open novel perspectives for better comprehending the vast influences of musical expertise on cognition.

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BACKGROUND After cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB), acquired coagulopathy often leads to post-CPB bleeding. Though multifactorial in origin, this coagulopathy is often aggravated by deficient fibrinogen levels. OBJECTIVE To assess whether laboratory and thrombelastometric testing on CPB can predict plasma fibrinogen immediately after CPB weaning. PATIENTS / METHODS This prospective study in 110 patients undergoing major cardiovascular surgery at risk of post-CPB bleeding compares fibrinogen level (Clauss method) and function (fibrin-specific thrombelastometry) in order to study the predictability of their course early after termination of CPB. Linear regression analysis and receiver operating characteristics were used to determine correlations and predictive accuracy. RESULTS Quantitative estimation of post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen from on-CPB fibrinogen was feasible with small bias (+0.19 g/l), but with poor precision and a percentage of error >30%. A clinically useful alternative approach was developed by using on-CPB A10 to predict a Clauss fibrinogen range of interest instead of a discrete level. An on-CPB A10 ≤10 mm identified patients with a post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen of ≤1.5 g/l with a sensitivity of 0.99 and a positive predictive value of 0.60; it also identified those without a post-CPB Clauss fibrinogen <2.0 g/l with a specificity of 0.83. CONCLUSIONS When measured on CPB prior to weaning, a FIBTEM A10 ≤10 mm is an early alert for post-CPB fibrinogen levels below or within the substitution range (1.5-2.0 g/l) recommended in case of post-CPB coagulopathic bleeding. This helps to minimize the delay to data-based hemostatic management after weaning from CPB.

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Abstract Purpose Aortic stenosis (AS) is the most common valvular abnormality in the elderly population. For inoperable patients or those at high-risk for surgery, transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has become an alternative therapeutic option. The aim of the “Comprehensive geriatric assessment for transcatheter aortic valve implantation” (CGA-TAVI) registry is to evaluate the effectiveness of TAVI from the perspective of the geriatrician and to identify patient characteristics and indicators related to complications and clinical benefits for patients with symptomatic severe calcified degenerative AS undergoing TAVI. Materials and methods The CGA-TAVI registry is an international, multi-center, prospective, observational registry across Europe with consecutive patient enrolment. The registry will enrol up to 200 patients with AS undergoing TAVI, starting August 2013. CGA-TAVI has two co-primary objectives: (1) Establish predictive value of Comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) for mortality and/or hospitalization in TAVI patients. (2) Demonstrate CGA changes within 3 months after TAVI. Secondary objectives are: (1) Establish predictive value of CGA in TAVI patients for all-cause hospitalization, TAVI-related hospitalization, and nursing home admission. (2) Develop a comprehensive score for the assessment of TAVI patient prognosis. Conclusions The data obtained from the CGA-TAVI registry will supplement previous results to document the potential value of the effectiveness of TAVI from the perspective of geriatricians and will allow the assessment of the predictive value of CGA for mortality and/or hospitalization in elderly TAVI patients. Keywords Aortic stenosis; Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI); Comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA); Registry; Predictor

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OBJECTIVE How long clinicians should wait before considering an antipsychotic ineffective and changing treatment in schizophrenia is an unresolved clinical question. Guidelines differ substantially in this regard. The authors conducted a diagnostic test meta-analysis using mostly individual patient data to assess whether lack of improvement at week 2 predicts later nonresponse. METHOD The search included EMBASE, MEDLINE, BIOSIS, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, and reference lists of relevant articles, supplemented by requests to authors of all relevant studies. The main outcome was prediction of nonresponse, defined as <50% reduction in total score on either the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) or Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) (corresponding to at least much improved) from baseline to endpoint (4-12 weeks), by <20% PANSS or BPRS improvement (corresponding to less than minimally improved) at week 2. Secondary outcomes were absent cross-sectional symptomatic remission and <20% PANSS or BPRS reduction at endpoint. Potential moderator variables were examined by meta-regression. RESULTS In 34 studies (N=9,460) a <20% PANSS or BPRS reduction at week 2 predicted nonresponse at endpoint with a specificity of 86% and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 90%. Using data for observed cases (specificity=86%, PPV=85%) or lack of remission (specificity=77%, PPV=88%) yielded similar results. Conversely, using the definition of <20% reduction at endpoint yielded worse results (specificity=70%, PPV=55%). The test specificity was significantly moderated by a trial duration of <6 weeks, higher baseline illness severity, and shorter illness duration. CONCLUSIONS Patients not even minimally improved by week 2 of antipsychotic treatment are unlikely to respond later and may benefit from a treatment change.

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The G M1-gangliosidosis is an autosomal recessive lysosomal storage disease caused by structural defects of the beta-galactosidase gene (GLB1) which lead to a severe phenotypical impairment in homozygous individuals, whereas heterozygous carriers remain clinically normal. Currently employed DNA parentage tests include the analysis of microsatellites, which also have a diagnostic predictive value. The aim of this study was to provide a reliable tool for genotyping the canine GLB1 which can be effectively integrated in parentage testing investigations. For this purpose the association between the GLB1 gene and the AHT K253 microsatellite was analyzed in 30 Alaskan huskies (11 GLB1+/+, 17 GLB1+/- and 2 GLB1-/- dogs). The 143 bp AHT K253 microsatellite allele was identified only in GLB1+/- and GLB1-/- animals and was in strong linkage disequilibrium with the causative mutation for G M1-gangliosidosis, a 19 bp duplication within exon 15 of the GLB1 gene. The results of the present study revealed a 100% concordance between the previous established genotypes and those obtained after the analysis of the AHT K253 microsatellite. Thus, the genotype of the AHT K253 microsatellite, which is routinely determined during dog parentage testing, has a high predictive value for the G M1-gangliosidosis carrier status.

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Leopard Complex spotting occurs in several breeds of horses and is caused by an incompletely dominant allele (LP). Homozygosity for LP is also associated with congenital stationary night blindness (CSNB) in Appaloosa horses. Previously, LP was mapped to a 6 cm region on ECA1 containing the candidate gene TRPM1 (Transient Receptor Potential Cation Channel, Subfamily M, Member 1) and decreased expression of this gene, measured by qRT-PCR, was identified as the likely cause of both spotting and ocular phenotypes. This study describes investigations for a mutation causing or associated with the Leopard Complex and CSNB phenotype in horses. Re-sequencing of the gene and associated splice sites within the 105 624 bp genomic region of TRPM1 led to the discovery of 18 SNPs. Most of the SNPs did not have a predictive value for the presence of LP. However, one SNP (ECA1:108,249,293 C>T) found within intron 11 had a strong (P < 0.0005), but not complete, association with LP and CSNB and thus is a good marker but unlikely to be causative. To further localize the association, 70 SNPs spanning over two Mb including the TRPM1 gene were genotyped in 192 horses from three different breeds segregating for LP. A single 173 kb haplotype associated with LP and CSNB (ECA1: 108,197,355- 108,370,150) was identified. Illumina sequencing of 300 kb surrounding this haplotype revealed 57 SNP variants. Based on their localization within expressed sequences or regions of high sequence conservation across mammals, six of these SNPs were considered to be the most likely candidate mutations. While the precise function of TRPM1 remains to be elucidated, this work solidifies its functional role in both pigmentation and night vision. Further, this work has identified several potential regulatory elements of the TRPM1 gene that should be investigated further in this and other species.

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BACKGROUND Inability to predict the therapeutic effect of a drug in individual pain patients prolongs the process of drug and dose finding until satisfactory pharmacotherapy can be achieved. Many chronic pain conditions are associated with hypersensitivity of the nervous system or impaired endogenous pain modulation. Pharmacotherapy often aims at influencing these disturbed nociceptive processes. Its effect might therefore depend on the extent to which they are altered. Quantitative sensory testing (QST) can evaluate various aspects of pain processing and might therefore be able to predict the analgesic efficacy of a given drug. In the present study three drugs commonly used in the pharmacological management of chronic low back pain are investigated. The primary objective is to examine the ability of QST to predict pain reduction. As a secondary objective, the analgesic effects of these drugs and their effect on QST are evaluated. METHODS/DESIGN In this randomized, double blinded, placebo controlled cross-over study, patients with chronic low back pain are randomly assigned to imipramine, oxycodone or clobazam versus active placebo. QST is assessed at baseline, 1 and 2 h after drug administration. Pain intensity, side effects and patients' global impression of change are assessed in intervals of 30 min up to two hours after drug intake. Baseline QST is used as explanatory variable to predict drug effect. The change in QST over time is analyzed to describe the pharmacodynamic effects of each drug on experimental pain modalities. Genetic polymorphisms are analyzed as co-variables. DISCUSSION Pharmacotherapy is a mainstay in chronic pain treatment. Antidepressants, anticonvulsants and opioids are frequently prescribed in a "trial and error" fashion, without knowledge however, which drug suits best which patient. The present study addresses the important need to translate recent advances in pain research to clinical practice. Assessing the predictive value of central hypersensitivity and endogenous pain modulation could allow for the implementation of a mechanism-based treatment strategy in individual patients. TRIAL REGISTRATION Clinicaltrials.gov, NCT01179828.

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BACKGROUND Whether screening for thrombophilia is useful for patients after a first episode of venous thromboembolism (VTE) is a controversial issue. However, the impact of thrombophilia on the risk of recurrence may vary depending on the patient's age at the time of the first VTE. PATIENTS AND METHODS Of 1221 VTE patients (42 % males) registered in the MAISTHRO (MAin-ISar-THROmbosis) registry, 261 experienced VTE recurrence during a 5-year follow-up after the discontinuation of anticoagulant therapy. RESULTS Thrombophilia was more common among patients with VTE recurrence than those without (58.6 % vs. 50.3 %; p = 0.017). Stratifying patients by the age at the time of their initial VTE, Cox proportional hazards analyses adjusted for age, sex and the presence or absence of established risk factors revealed a heterozygous prothrombin (PT) G20210A mutation (hazard ratio (HR) 2.65; 95 %-confidence interval (CI) 1.71 - 4.12; p < 0.001), homozygosity/double heterozygosity for the factor V Leiden and/or PT mutation (HR 2.35; 95 %-CI 1.09 - 5.07, p = 0.030), and an antithrombin deficiency (HR 2.12; 95 %-CI 1.12 - 4.10; p = 0.021) to predict recurrent VTE in patients aged 40 years or older, whereas lupus anticoagulants (HR 3.05; 95%-CI 1.40 - 6.66; p = 0.005) increased the risk of recurrence in younger patients. Subgroup analyses revealed an increased risk of recurrence for a heterozygous factor V Leiden mutation only in young females without hormonal treatment whereas the predictive value of a heterozygous PT mutation was restricted to males over the age of 40 years. CONCLUSIONS Our data do not support a preference of younger patients for thrombophilia testing after a first venous thromboembolic event.

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OBJECTIVES/HYPOTHESIS Assess the diagnostic and prognostic relevance of intraglandular lymph node (IGLN) metastases in primary parotid gland carcinomas (PGCs). STUDY DESIGN Retrospective study at a tertiary referral university hospital. METHODS We reviewed the records of 95 patients with primary PGCs, treated at least surgically, between 1997 and 2010. We assessed the clinicopathological associations of IGLN metastases, their prognostic significance, and predictive value in the diagnosis of occult neck lymph node metastases RESULTS Twenty-four (25.26%) patients had IGLN metastases. This feature was significantly more prevalent in patients with advanced pT status (P = .01), pN status (P < .01), and overall stage (P < .001); high-risk carcinomas (P = .01); as well as in patients with treatment failures (P < .01). IGLN involvement was significantly associated with decreased univariate disease-free survival (P < .001). Positive and negative predictive values and accuracy for IGLN involvement in the detection of occult neck lymph node metastases were 63.64%, 90.48%, and 84.91%, respectively. The diagnostic values were generally higher in patients with low-risk subtype of PGCs. CONCLUSIONS IGLN involvement provides prognostic information and is associated with advanced tumoral stage and higher risk of recurrence. This feature could be used as a potential readout to determine whether a neck dissection in clinically negative neck lymph nodes is needed or not. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE 4.