A critical evaluation of secondary cancer risk models applied to Monte Carlo dose distributions of 2-dimensional, 3-dimensional conformal and hybrid intensity-modulated radiation therapy for breast cancer

The comparison of radiotherapy techniques regarding secondary cancer risk has yielded contradictory results possibly stemming from the many different approaches used to estimate risk. The purpose of this study was to make a comprehensive evaluation of different available risk models applied to detailed whole-body dose distributions computed by Monte Carlo for various breast radiotherapy techniques including conventional open tangents, 3D conformal wedged tangents and hybrid intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). First, organ-specific linear risk models developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII committee were applied to mean doses for remote organs only and all solid organs. Then, different general non-linear risk models were applied to the whole body dose distribution. Finally, organ-specific non-linear risk models for the lung and breast were used to assess the secondary cancer risk for these two specific organs. A total of 32 different calculated absolute risks resulted in a broad range of values (between 0.1% and 48.5%) underlying the large uncertainties in absolute risk calculation. The ratio of risk between two techniques has often been proposed as a more robust assessment of risk than the absolute risk. We found that the ratio of risk between two techniques could also vary substantially considering the different approaches to risk estimation. Sometimes the ratio of risk between two techniques would range between values smaller and larger than one, which then translates into inconsistent results on the potential higher risk of one technique compared to another. We found however that the hybrid IMRT technique resulted in a systematic reduction of risk compared to the other techniques investigated even though the magnitude of this reduction varied substantially with the different approaches investigated. Based on the epidemiological data available, a reasonable approach to risk estimation would be to use organ-specific non-linear risk models applied to the dose distributions of organs within or near the treatment fields (lungs and contralateral breast in the case of breast radiotherapy) as the majority of radiation-induced secondary cancers are found in the beam-bordering regions.

Developing Psychosis and Its Risk States Through the Lens of Schizotypy

Starting from the early descriptions of Kraepelin and Bleuler, the construct of schizotypy was developed from observations of aberrations in nonpsychotic family members of schizophrenia patients. In contemporary diagnostic manuals, the positive symptoms of schizotypal personality disorder were included in the ultra high-risk (UHR) criteria 20 years ago, and nowadays are broadly employed in clinical early detection of psychosis. The schizotypy construct, now dissociated from strict familial risk, also informed research on the liability to develop any psychotic disorder, and in particular schizophrenia-spectrum disorders, even outside clinical settings. Against the historical background of schizotypy it is surprising that evidence from longitudinal studies linking schizotypy, UHR, and conversion to psychosis has only recently emerged; and it still remains unclear how schizotypy may be positioned in high-risk research. Following a comprehensive literature search, we review 18 prospective studies on 15 samples examining the evidence for a link between trait schizotypy and conversion to psychosis in 4 different types of samples: general population, clinical risk samples according to UHR and/or basic symptom criteria, genetic (familial) risk, and clinical samples at-risk for a nonpsychotic schizophrenia-spectrum diagnosis. These prospective studies underline the value of schizotypy in high-risk research, but also point to the lack of evidence needed to better define the position of the construct of schizotypy within a developmental psychopathology perspective of emerging psychosis and schizophrenia-spectrum disorders

Comparative therapeutic value of post-remission approaches in patients with acute myeloid leukemia aged 40-60 years.

The preferred type of post-remission therapy (PRT) in patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML) in first complete remission (CR1) is a subject of continued debate, especially in patients at higher risk of nonrelapse mortality (NRM), including patients >40 years of age. We report results of a time-dependent multivariable analysis of allogenic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (alloHSCT) (n=337) versus chemotherapy (n=271) or autologous HSCT (autoHSCT) (n=152) in 760 patients aged 40-60 years with AML in CR1. Patients receiving alloHSCT showed improved overall survival (OS) as compared with chemotherapy (respectively, 57±3% vs 40±3% at 5 years, P<0.001). Comparable OS was observed following alloHSCT and autoHSCT in patients with intermediate-risk AML (60±4 vs 54±5%). However, alloHSCT was associated with less relapse (hazard ratio (HR) 0.51, P<0.001) and better relapse-free survival (RFS) (HR 0.74, P=0.029) as compared with autoHSCT in intermediate-risk AMLs. AlloHSCT was applied following myeloablative conditioning (n=157) or reduced intensity conditioning (n=180), resulting in less NRM, but comparable outcome with respect to OS, RFS and relapse. Collectively, these results show that alloHSCT is to be preferred over chemotherapy as PRT in patients with intermediate- and poor-risk AML aged 40-60 years, whereas autoHSCT remains a treatment option to be considered in patients with intermediate-risk AML.Leukemia advance online publication, 23 December 2014; doi:10.1038/leu.2014.332.

Use of early corticosteroid therapy on ICU admission in patients affected by severe pandemic (H1N1)v influenza A infection.

INTRODUCTION Early use of corticosteroids in patients affected by pandemic (H1N1)v influenza A infection, although relatively common, remains controversial. METHODS Prospective, observational, multicenter study from 23 June 2009 through 11 February 2010, reported in the European Society of Intensive Care Medicine (ESICM) H1N1 registry. RESULTS Two hundred twenty patients admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU) with completed outcome data were analyzed. Invasive mechanical ventilation was used in 155 (70.5%). Sixty-seven (30.5%) of the patients died in ICU and 75 (34.1%) whilst in hospital. One hundred twenty-six (57.3%) patients received corticosteroid therapy on admission to ICU. Patients who received corticosteroids were significantly older and were more likely to have coexisting asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and chronic steroid use. These patients receiving corticosteroids had increased likelihood of developing hospital-acquired pneumonia (HAP) [26.2% versus 13.8%, p < 0.05; odds ratio (OR) 2.2, confidence interval (CI) 1.1-4.5]. Patients who received corticosteroids had significantly higher ICU mortality than patients who did not (46.0% versus 18.1%, p < 0.01; OR 3.8, CI 2.1-7.2). Cox regression analysis adjusted for severity and potential confounding factors identified that early use of corticosteroids was not significantly associated with mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 1.3, 95% CI 0.7-2.4, p = 0.4] but was still associated with an increased rate of HAP (OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.0-4.8, p < 0.05). When only patients developing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) were analyzed, similar results were observed. CONCLUSIONS Early use of corticosteroids in patients affected by pandemic (H1N1)v influenza A infection did not result in better outcomes and was associated with increased risk of superinfections.

Stratification of high-risk prostate cancer into prognostic categories: a European multi-institutional study

BACKGROUND High-risk prostate cancer (PCa) is an extremely heterogeneous disease. A clear definition of prognostic subgroups is mandatory. OBJECTIVE To develop a pretreatment prognostic model for PCa-specific survival (PCSS) in high-risk PCa based on combinations of unfavorable risk factors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We conducted a retrospective multicenter cohort study including 1360 consecutive patients with high-risk PCa treated at eight European high-volume centers. INTERVENTION Retropubic radical prostatectomy with pelvic lymphadenectomy. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Two Cox multivariable regression models were constructed to predict PCSS as a function of dichotomization of clinical stage (< cT3 vs cT3-4), Gleason score (GS) (2-7 vs 8-10), and prostate-specific antigen (PSA; ≤ 20 ng/ml vs > 20 ng/ml). The first "extended" model includes all seven possible combinations; the second "simplified" model includes three subgroups: a good prognosis subgroup (one single high-risk factor); an intermediate prognosis subgroup (PSA >20 ng/ml and stage cT3-4); and a poor prognosis subgroup (GS 8-10 in combination with at least one other high-risk factor). The predictive accuracy of the models was summarized and compared. Survival estimates and clinical and pathologic outcomes were compared between the three subgroups. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS The simplified model yielded an R(2) of 33% with a 5-yr area under the curve (AUC) of 0.70 with no significant loss of predictive accuracy compared with the extended model (R(2): 34%; AUC: 0.71). The 5- and 10-yr PCSS rates were 98.7% and 95.4%, 96.5% and 88.3%, 88.8% and 79.7%, for the good, intermediate, and poor prognosis subgroups, respectively (p = 0.0003). Overall survival, clinical progression-free survival, and histopathologic outcomes significantly worsened in a stepwise fashion from the good to the poor prognosis subgroups. Limitations of the study are the retrospective design and the long study period. CONCLUSIONS This study presents an intuitive and easy-to-use stratification of high-risk PCa into three prognostic subgroups. The model is useful for counseling and decision making in the pretreatment setting.

Declining transition rates to psychosis: The role of diagnostic spectra and symptom overlaps in individuals with attenuated psychosis syndrome

Transition to psychosis in at-risk individuals has markedly declined in recent years. So far it has never been discussed in detail that with the growing awareness and increasing availability of early psychosis services, a much broader diagnostic spectrum is now being seen in these services. Subsequently, subjects present with symptoms that meet psychosis risk on a purely psychometric basis but may be the phenotypical expression of another underlying mental disorder. Here we critically review four groups of symptoms and clinical features that are frequently reported by individuals with suspected psychosis risk states, yet share strong commonalities with other mental disorders and conditions: isolated hallucinations; unusual bodily perceptions, hypochondriatic fears and cenesthetic psychotic symptoms; depersonalization; obsessive–compulsive, overvalued and delusional ideas. Of the 616 individuals so far assessed in the Bruderholz Early Psychosis Outpatient Service for Adolescents and Young Adults, 218 (30.5%) met ultra-high risk (UHR) criteria, 188 (86.2%) of whom suffered from one of the four above-mentioned symptom groups. The appraisal of the diagnostic spectra and their overlapping symptoms constitute a tremendous challenge in the clinical assessment of each referred individual. The final conclusion of a clinical assessment should not end with the mere assignment – or non-assignment – to a presumed psychosis risk group, but needs to take into account the ‘Gestalt’ of these particular symptoms and clinical features and thus be based on many more facets than solely a psychometric or nosological approach. Such an approach may break down the heterogeneous psychosis risk group and enable appropriate treatment regimes.

Neural correlates of anticipation risk reflect risk preferences

Individual risk preferences have a large influence on decisions, such as financial investments, career and health choices, or gambling. Decision making under risk has been studied both behaviorally and on a neural level. It remains unclear, however, how risk attitudes are encoded and integrated with choice. Here, we investigate how risk preferences are reflected in neural regions known to process risk. We collected functional magnetic resonance images of 56 human subjects during a gambling task (Preuschoff et al., 2006). Subjects were grouped into risk averters and risk seekers according to the risk preferences they revealed in a separate lottery task. We found that during the anticipation of high-risk gambles, risk averters show stronger responses in ventral striatum and anterior insula compared to risk seekers. In addition, risk prediction error signals in anterior insula, inferior frontal gyrus, and anterior cingulate indicate that risk averters do not dissociate properly between gambles that are more or less risky than expected. We suggest this may result in a general overestimation of prospective risk and lead to risk avoidance behavior. This is the first study to show that behavioral risk preferences are reflected in the passive evaluation of risky situations. The results have implications on public policies in the financial and health domain.

Recommendations for management of dyslipidemia in 2014

Benefit of statin treatment is well established for secondary prevention. For primary prevention, good data exist to support use of statins in high-risk groups. Less data are available for intermediate risk group and very few patients at low risk have been included in clinical trials. In this context, an individual approach based on a risk stratification using PROCAM score adjusted for Switzerland is recommended. Lifestyle measures should be tried first. We also discuss the new American guidelines and their related controversies. Secondary causes and familiar forms of dyslipidemias, for which a risk assessment cannot be performed using risk scores (first cardiovascular event between age 20 and 60), should not be overlooked.

Bacterial infections in cirrhosis: a position statement based on the EASL Special Conference 2013.

Bacterial infections are very common and represent one of the most important reasons of progression of liver failure, development of liver-related complications, and mortality in patients with cirrhosis. In fact, bacterial infections may be a triggering factor for the occurrence of gastrointestinal bleeding, hypervolemic hyponatremia, hepatic encephalopathy, kidney failure, and development of acute-on-chronic liver failure. Moreover, infections are a very common cause of repeated hospitalizations, impaired health-related quality of life, and increased healthcare costs in cirrhosis. Bacterial infections develop as a consequence of immune dysfunction that occurs progressively during the course of cirrhosis. In a significant proportion of patients, infections are caused by gram-negative bacteria from intestinal origin, yet gram-positive bacteria are a frequent cause of infection, particularly in hospitalized patients. In recent years, infections caused by multidrug-resistant bacteria are becoming an important clinical problem in many countries. The reduction of the negative clinical impact of infections in patients with cirrhosis may be achieved by a combination of prophylactic measures, such as administration of antibiotics, to reduce the occurrence of infections in high-risk groups together with early identification and management of infection once it has developed. Investigation on the mechanisms of altered gut microflora, translocation of bacteria, and immune dysfunction may help develop more effective and safe methods of prevention compared to those that are currently available. Moreover, research on biomarkers of early infection may be useful in early diagnosis and treatment of infections. The current manuscript reports an in-depth review and a position statement on bacterial infections in cirrhosis.

Body composition and all-cause mortality in subjects older than 65 y.

BACKGROUND A low or high body mass index (BMI) has been associated with increased mortality risk in older subjects without taking fat mass index (FMI) and fat-free mass index (FFMI) into account. This information is essential because FMI is modulated through different healthcare strategies than is FFMI. OBJECTIVE We aimed to determine the relation between body composition and mortality in older subjects. DESIGN We included all adults ≥65 y old who were living in Switzerland and had a body-composition measurement by bioelectrical impedance analysis at the Geneva University Hospitals between 1990 and 2011. FMI and FFMI were divided into sex-specific quartiles. Quartile 1 (i.e., the reference category) corresponded to the lowest FMI or FFMI quartile. Mortality data were retrieved from the hospital database, the Geneva death register, and the Swiss National Cohort until December 2012. Comorbidities were assessed by using the Cumulative Illness Rating Scale. RESULTS Of 3181 subjects included, 766 women and 1007 men died at a mean age of 82.8 and 78.5 y, respectively. Sex-specific Cox regression models, which were used to adjust for age, BMI, smoking, ambulatory or hospitalized state, and calendar time, showed that body composition did not predict mortality in women irrespective of whether comorbidities were taken into account. In men, risk of mortality was lower with FFMI in quartiles 3 and 4 [HR: 0.78 (95% CI: 0.62, 0.98) and 0.64 (95% CI: 0.49, 0.85), respectively] but was not affected by FMI. When comorbidities were adjusted for, FFMI in quartile 4 (>19.5 kg/m(2)) still predicted a lower risk of mortality (HR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.54, 0.96). CONCLUSIONS Low FFMI is a stronger predictor of mortality than is BMI in older men but not older women. FMI had no impact on mortality. These results suggest potential benefits of preventive interventions with the aim of maintaining muscle mass in older men. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT01472679.

Aspiration Thrombectomy for Treatment of ST-segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction: a Meta-analysis of 26 Randomized Trials in 11 943 Patients.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES There is continued debate about the routine use of aspiration thrombectomy in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Our aim was to evaluate clinical and procedural outcomes of aspiration thrombectomy-assisted primary percutaneous coronary intervention compared with conventional primary percutaneous coronary intervention in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. METHODS We performed a meta-analysis of 26 randomized controlled trials with a total of 11 943 patients. Clinical outcomes were extracted up to maximum follow-up and random effect models were used to assess differences in outcomes. RESULTS We observed no difference in the risk of all-cause death (pooled risk ratio = 0.88; 95% confidence interval, 0.74-1.04; P = .124), reinfarction (pooled risk ratio = 0.85; 95% confidence interval, 0.67-1.08; P = .176), target vessel revascularization (pooled risk ratio = 0.86; 95% confidence interval, 0.73-1.00; P = .052), or definite stent thrombosis (pooled risk ratio = 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.49-1.16; P = .202) between the 2 groups at a mean weighted follow-up time of 10.4 months. There were significant reductions in failure to reach Thrombolysis In Myocardial Infarction 3 flow (pooled risk ratio = 0.70; 95% confidence interval, 0.60-0.81; P < .001) or myocardial blush grade 3 (pooled risk ratio = 0.76; 95% confidence interval, 0.65-0.89; P = .001), incomplete ST-segment resolution (pooled risk ratio = 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.62-0.84; P < .001), and evidence of distal embolization (pooled risk ratio = 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.46-0.81; P = .001) with aspiration thrombectomy but estimates were heterogeneous between trials. CONCLUSIONS Among unselected patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction, aspiration thrombectomy-assisted primary percutaneous coronary intervention does not improve clinical outcomes, despite improved epicardial and myocardial parameters of reperfusion. Full English text available from:www.revespcardiol.org/en.

Clinical Outcomes According to Diabetic Status in Patients Treated With Biodegradable Polymer Sirolimus-Eluting Stents Versus Durable Polymer Everolimus-Eluting Stents: Prespecified Subgroup Analysis of the BIOSCIENCE Trial.

BACKGROUND Ultrathin strut biodegradable polymer sirolimus-eluting stents (BP-SES) proved noninferior to durable polymer everolimus-eluting stents (DP-EES) for a composite clinical end point in a population with minimal exclusion criteria. We performed a prespecified subgroup analysis of the Ultrathin Strut Biodegradable Polymer Sirolimus-Eluting Stent Versus Durable Polymer Everolimus-Eluting Stent for Percutaneous Coronary Revascularisation (BIOSCIENCE) trial to compare the performance of BP-SES and DP-EES in patients with diabetes mellitus. METHODS AND RESULTS BIOSCIENCE trial was an investigator-initiated, single-blind, multicentre, randomized, noninferiority trial comparing BP-SES versus DP-EES. The primary end point, target lesion failure, was a composite of cardiac death, target-vessel myocardial infarction, and clinically indicated target lesion revascularization within 12 months. Among a total of 2119 patients enrolled between February 2012 and May 2013, 486 (22.9%) had diabetes mellitus. Overall diabetic patients experienced a significantly higher risk of target lesion failure compared with patients without diabetes mellitus (10.1% versus 5.7%; hazard ratio [HR], 1.80; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.27-2.56; P=0.001). At 1 year, there were no differences between BP-SES versus DP-EES in terms of the primary end point in both diabetic (10.9% versus 9.3%; HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 0.67-2.10; P=0.56) and nondiabetic patients (5.3% versus 6.0%; HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.58-1.33; P=0.55). Similarly, no significant differences in the risk of definite or probable stent thrombosis were recorded according to treatment arm in both study groups (4.0% versus 3.1%; HR, 1.30; 95% CI, 0.49-3.41; P=0.60 for diabetic patients and 2.4% versus 3.4%; HR, 0.70; 95% CI, 0.39-1.25; P=0.23, in nondiabetics). CONCLUSIONS In the prespecified subgroup analysis of the BIOSCIENCE trial, clinical outcomes among diabetic patients treated with BP-SES or DP-EES were comparable at 1 year. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01443104.

Circulating FABP4 Is a Prognostic Biomarker in Patients With Acute Coronary Syndrome but Not in Asymptomatic Individuals.

OBJECTIVE Blood-borne biomarkers reflecting atherosclerotic plaque burden have great potential to improve clinical management of atherosclerotic coronary artery disease and acute coronary syndrome (ACS). APPROACH AND RESULTS Using data integration from gene expression profiling of coronary thrombi versus peripheral blood mononuclear cells and proteomic analysis of atherosclerotic plaque-derived secretomes versus healthy tissue secretomes, we identified fatty acid-binding protein 4 (FABP4) as a biomarker candidate for coronary artery disease. Its diagnostic and prognostic performance was validated in 3 different clinical settings: (1) in a cross-sectional cohort of patients with stable coronary artery disease, ACS, and healthy individuals (n=820), (2) in a nested case-control cohort of patients with ACS with 30-day follow-up (n=200), and (3) in a population-based nested case-control cohort of asymptomatic individuals with 5-year follow-up (n=414). Circulating FABP4 was marginally higher in patients with ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction (24.9 ng/mL) compared with controls (23.4 ng/mL; P=0.01). However, elevated FABP4 was associated with adverse secondary cerebrovascular or cardiovascular events during 30-day follow-up after index ACS, independent of age, sex, renal function, and body mass index (odds ratio, 1.7; 95% confidence interval, 1.1-2.5; P=0.02). Circulating FABP4 predicted adverse events with similar prognostic performance as the GRACE in-hospital risk score or N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide. Finally, no significant difference between baseline FABP4 was found in asymptomatic individuals with or without coronary events during 5-year follow-up. CONCLUSIONS Circulating FABP4 may prove useful as a prognostic biomarker in risk stratification of patients with ACS.

Polymorphisms in MIR27A Associated with Early-Onset Toxicity in Fluoropyrimidine-Based Chemotherapy

PURPOSE The microRNA miR-27a was recently shown to directly regulate dihydropyrimidine dehydrogenase (DPD), the key enzyme in fluoropyrimidine catabolism. A common polymorphism (rs895819A>G) in the miR-27a genomic region (MIR27A) was associated with reduced DPD activity in healthy volunteers, but the clinical relevance of this effect is still unknown. Here, we assessed the association of MIR27A germline variants with early-onset fluoropyrimidine toxicity. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN MIR27A was sequenced in 514 patients with cancer receiving fluoropyrimidine-based chemotherapy. Associations of MIR27A polymorphisms with early-onset (cycles 1-2) fluoropyrimidine toxicity were assessed in the context of known risk variants in the DPD gene (DPYD) and additional covariates associated with toxicity. RESULTS The association of rs895819A>G with early-onset fluoropyrimidine toxicity was strongly dependent on DPYD risk variant carrier status (Pinteraction = 0.0025). In patients carrying DPYD risk variants, rs895819G was associated with a strongly increased toxicity risk [OR, 7.6; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.7-34.7; P = 0.0085]. Overall, 71% (12/17) of patients who carried both rs895819G and a DPYD risk variant experienced severe toxicity. In patients without DPYD risk variants, rs895819G was associated with a modest decrease in toxicity risk (OR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.43-0.9; P = 0.012). CONCLUSIONS These results indicate that miR-27a and rs895819A>G may be clinically relevant for further toxicity risk stratification in carriers of DPYD risk variants. Our data suggest that direct suppression of DPD by miR-27a is primarily relevant in the context of fluoropyrimidine toxicity in patients with reduced DPD activity. However, miR-27a regulation of additional targets may outweigh its effect on DPD in patients without DPYD risk variants.

Avalanche risk assessment - a multi-temporal approach, results from Galtür, Austria

Snow avalanches pose a threat to settlements and infrastructure in alpine environments. Due to the catastrophic events in recent years, the public is more aware of this phenomenon. Alpine settlements have always been confronted with natural hazards, but changes in land use and in dealing with avalanche hazards lead to an altering perception of this threat. In this study, a multi-temporal risk assessment is presented for three avalanche tracks in the municipality of Galtür, Austria. Changes in avalanche risk as well as changes in the risk-influencing factors (process behaviour, values at risk (buildings) and vulnerability) between 1950 and 2000 are quantified. An additional focus is put on the interconnection between these factors and their influence on the resulting risk. The avalanche processes were calculated using different simulation models (SAMOS as well as ELBA+). For each avalanche track, different scenarios were calculated according to the development of mitigation measures. The focus of the study was on a multi-temporal risk assessment; consequently the used models could be replaced with other snow avalanche models providing the same functionalities. The monetary values of buildings were estimated using the volume of the buildings and average prices per cubic meter. The changing size of the buildings over time was inferred from construction plans. The vulnerability of the buildings is understood as a degree of loss to a given element within the area affected by natural hazards. A vulnerability function for different construction types of buildings that depends on avalanche pressure was used to assess the degree of loss. No general risk trend could be determined for the studied avalanche tracks. Due to the high complexity of the variations in risk, small changes of one of several influencing factors can cause considerable differences in the resulting risk. This multi-temporal approach leads to better understanding of the today's risk by identifying the main changes and the underlying processes. Furthermore, this knowledge can be implemented in strategies for sustainable development in Alpine settlements.