Predicting the onset of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk: practical guide to probabilistic prognostic reasoning

Prediction of psychosis in patients at clinical high risk (CHR) has become a mainstream focus of clinical and research interest worldwide. When using CHR instruments for clinical purposes, the predicted outcome is but only a probability; and, consequently, any therapeutic action following the assessment is based on probabilistic prognostic reasoning. Yet, probabilistic reasoning makes considerable demands on the clinicians. We provide here a scholarly practical guide summarising the key concepts to support clinicians with probabilistic prognostic reasoning in the CHR state. We review risk or cumulative incidence of psychosis in, person-time rate of psychosis, Kaplan-Meier estimates of psychosis risk, measures of prognostic accuracy, sensitivity and specificity in receiver operator characteristic curves, positive and negative predictive values, Bayes’ theorem, likelihood ratios, potentials and limits of real-life applications of prognostic probabilistic reasoning in the CHR state. Understanding basic measures used for prognostic probabilistic reasoning is a prerequisite for successfully implementing the early detection and prevention of psychosis in clinical practice. Future refinement of these measures for CHR patients may actually influence risk management, especially as regards initiating or withholding treatment.

Constraints on barium isotope fractionation during aragonite precipitation by corals

We present a barium (Ba) isotope fractionation study of marine biogenic carbonates (aragonitic corals). The major aim is to provide first constraints on the Ba isotope fractionation between modern surface sea water and coral skele- ton. Mediterranean surface sea water was found to be enriched in the heavy Ba isotopes compared to previously reported values for marine open ocean authi- genic and terrestrial minerals. In aquarium experiments with a continuous sup- ply of Mediterranean surface water, the Ba isotopic composition of the bulk sample originating from cultured, aragonitic scleractinian corals (d137/134Ba between +0.16 +/- 0.12permil and +0.41 +/-0.12permil) were isotopically identical or lighter than that of the ambient Mediterranean surface sea water (d137/134Ba = +0.42 +/- 0.07permil, 2SD), which corresponds to an empirical maximum value of Ba isotope fractionation of D137/134Bacoral-seawater = -0.26 +/- 0.14permil at 25°C. This maximum Ba isotope fractionation is close and identical in direction to previous results from inorganic precipitation experiments with aragonite- structured pure BaCO3 (witherite). The variability in measured Ba concentrations of the cultured corals is at odds with a uniform distribution coefficient, DBa/Ca, thus indicating stronger vital effects on isotope than element discrimination. This observation supports the hypothesis that the Ba isotopic compositions of these corals do not result from simple equilibrium between the skeleton and the bulk sea water. Complementary coral samples from natural settings (tropical shallow-water corals from the Bahamas and Florida and cold- water corals from the Norwegian continental shelf) show an even wider range in d137/134Ba values (+0.14 +/- 0.08permil and +0.77 +/- 0.11permil), most probably due to additional spatial and/or temporal sea water heterogeneity, as indicated by recent publications.

The Complexity of Non-Iterated Probabilistic Justification Logic

The logic PJ is a probabilistic logic defined by adding (noniterated) probability operators to the basic justification logic J. In this paper we establish upper and lower bounds for the complexity of the derivability problem in the logic PJ. The main result of the paper is that the complexity of the derivability problem in PJ remains the same as the complexity of the derivability problem in the underlying logic J, which is π[p/2] -complete. This implies that the probability operators do not increase the complexity of the logic, although they arguably enrich the expressiveness of the language.

Probabilistic Justification Logic

We present a probabilistic justification logic, PPJ, to study rational belief, degrees of belief and justifications. We establish soundness and completeness for PPJ and show that its satisfiability problem is decidable. In the last part we use PPJ to provide a solution to the lottery paradox.

Effects of team Knowledge and ecological constraints on decisional processes in customized football game scenarios

Several theories assume that successful team coordination is partly based on knowledge that helps anticipating individual contributions necessary in a situational task. It has been argued that a more ecological perspective needs to be considered in contexts evolving dynamically and unpredictably. In football, defensive plays are usually coordinated according to strategic concepts spanning all members and large areas of the playfield. On the other hand, fewer people are involved in offensive plays as these are less projectable and strongly constrained by ecological characteristics. The aim of this study is to test the effects of ecological constraints and player knowledge on decision making in offensive game scenarios. It is hypothesized that both knowledge about team members and situational constraints will influence decisional processes. Effects of situational constraints are expected to be of higher magnitude. Two teams playing in the fourth league of the Swiss Football Federation participate in the study. Forty customized game scenarios were developed based on the coaches’ information about player positions and game strategies. Each player was shown in ball possession four times. Participants were asked to take the perspective of the player on the ball and to choose a passing destination and a recipient. Participants then rated domain specific strengths (e.g., technical skills, game intelligence) of each of their teammates. Multilevel models for categorical dependent variables (team members) will be specified. Player knowledge (rated skills) and ecological constraints (operationalized as each players’ proximity and availability for ball reception) are included as predictor variables. Data are currently being collected. Results will yield effects of parameters that are stable across situations as well as of variable parameters that are bound to situational context. These will enable insight into the degree to which ecological constraints and more enduring team knowledge are involved in decisional processes aimed at coordinating interpersonal action.

Constraints on the thermal evolution of the Adriatic margin during Jurassic continental break-up: U–Pb dating of rutile from the Ivrea–Verbano Zone, Italy

The Ivrea–Verbano Zone (IVZ), northern Italy, exposes an attenuated section through the Permian lower crust that records high-temperature metamorphism under lower crustal conditions and a protracted history of extension and exhumation associated partly with the Jurassic opening of the Alpine Tethys ocean. This study presents SHRIMP U–Pb geochronology of rutile from seven granulite facies metapelites from the base of the IVZ, collected from locations spanning ~35 km along the strike of Paleozoic fabrics. Rutile crystallised during Permian high-temperature metamorphism and anatexis, yet all samples give Jurassic rutile U–Pb ages that record cooling through 650–550 °C. Rutile age distributions are dominated by a peak at ~160 Ma, with a subordinate peak at ~175 Ma. Both ~160 and ~175 Ma age populations show excellent agreement between samples, indicating that the two distinctive cooling stages they record were synchronous on a regional scale. The ~175 Ma population is interpreted to record cooling in the footwall of rift-related faults and shear zones, for which widespread activity in the Lower Jurassic has been documented along the western margin of the Adriatic plate. The ~160 Ma age population postdates the activity of all known rift-related structures within the Adriatic margin, but coincides with extensive gabbroic magmatism and exhumation of sub-continental mantle to the floor of the Alpine Tethys, west of the Ivrea Zone. We propose that this ~160 Ma early post-rift age population records regional cooling following episodic heating of the distal Adriatic margin, likely related to extreme lithospheric thinning and associated advection of the asthenosphere to shallow levels. The partial preservation of the ~175 Ma age cluster suggests that the post-rift (~160 Ma) heating pulse was of short duration. The regional consistency of the data presented here, which is in contrast to many other thermochronometers in the IVZ, demonstrates the value of the rutile U–Pb technique for probing the thermal evolution of high-grade metamorphic terrains. In the IVZ, a significant decoupling between Zr-in-rutile temperatures and U–Pb ages of rutile is observed, with the two systems recording events ~120 Ma apart.

Implicit probabilistic sequence learning: Correlated streams and sequence length matter

We investigated whether a pure perceptual stream is sufficient for probabilistic sequence learning to occur within a single session or whether correlated streams are necessary, whether learning is affected by the transition probability between sequence elements, and how the sequence length influences learning. In each of three experiments, we used six horizontally arranged stimulus displays which consisted of randomly ordered bigrams xo and ox. The probability of the next possible target location out of two was either .50/.50 or .75/.25 and was marked by an underline. In Experiment 1, a left vs. right key response was required for the x of a marked bigram in the pure perceptual learning condition and a response key press corresponding to the marked bigram location (out of 6) was required in the correlated streams condition (i.e., the ring, middle, or index finger of the left and right hand, respectively). The same probabilistic 3-element sequence was used in both conditions. Learning occurred only in the correlated streams condition. In Experiment 2, we investigated whether sequence length affected learning correlated sequences by contrasting the 3-elements sequence with a 6-elements sequence. Significant sequence learning occurred in all conditions. In Experiment 3, we removed a potential confound, that is, the sequence of hand changes. Under these conditions, learning occurred for the 3-element sequence only and transition probability did not affect the amount of learning. Together, these results indicate that correlated streams are necessary for probabilistic sequence learning within a single session and that sequence length can reduce the chances for learning to occur.

Can we constrain the interior structure of rocky exoplanets from mass and radius measurements?

Aims. We present an inversion method based on Bayesian analysis to constrain the interior structure of terrestrial exoplanets, in the form of chemical composition of the mantle and core size. Specifically, we identify what parts of the interior structure of terrestrial exoplanets can be determined from observations of mass, radius, and stellar elemental abundances. Methods. We perform a full probabilistic inverse analysis to formally account for observational and model uncertainties and obtain confidence regions of interior structure models. This enables us to characterize how model variability depends on data and associated uncertainties. Results. We test our method on terrestrial solar system planets and find that our model predictions are consistent with independent estimates. Furthermore, we apply our method to synthetic exoplanets up to 10 Earth masses and up to 1.7 Earth radii, and to exoplanet Kepler-36b. Importantly, the inversion strategy proposed here provides a framework for understanding the level of precision required to characterize the interior of exoplanets. Conclusions. Our main conclusions are (1) observations of mass and radius are sufficient to constrain core size; (2) stellar elemental abundances (Fe, Si, Mg) are principal constraints to reduce degeneracy in interior structure models and to constrain mantle composition; (3) the inherent degeneracy in determining interior structure from mass and radius observations does not only depend on measurement accuracies, but also on the actual size and density of the exoplanet. We argue that precise observations of stellar elemental abundances are central in order to place constraints on planetary bulk composition and to reduce model degeneracy. We provide a general methodology of analyzing interior structures of exoplanets that may help to understand how interior models are distributed among star systems. The methodology we propose is sufficiently general to allow its future extension to more complex internal structures including hydrogen- and water-rich exoplanets.

Comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko: Constraints on its origin from OSIRIS observations

Context. One of the main aims of the ESA Rosetta mission is to study the origin of the solar system by exploring comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko at close range. Aims. In this paper we discuss the origin and evolution of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko in relation to that of comets in general and in the framework of current solar system formation models. Methods. We use data from the OSIRIS scientific cameras as basic constraints. In particular, we discuss the overall bi-lobate shape and the presence of key geological features, such as layers and fractures. We also treat the problem of collisional evolution of comet nuclei by a particle-in-a-box calculation for an estimate of the probability of survival for 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko during the early epochs of the solar system. Results. We argue that the two lobes of the 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko nucleus are derived from two distinct objects that have formed a contact binary via a gentle merger. The lobes are separate bodies, though sufficiently similar to have formed in the same environment. An estimate of the collisional rate in the primordial, trans-planetary disk shows that most comets of similar size to 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko are likely collisional fragments, although survival of primordial planetesimals cannot be excluded. Conclusions. A collisional origin of the contact binary is suggested, and the low bulk density of the aggregate and abundance of volatile species show that a very gentle merger must have occurred. We thus consider two main scenarios: the primordial accretion of planetesimals, and the re-accretion of fragments after an energetic impact onto a larger parent body. We point to the primordial signatures exhibited by 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko and other comet nuclei as critical tests of the collisional evolution.

Unravelling the moisture sources of the Alpine Glaciers using tunnel valleys as constraints

A lack of archives has impeded reconstructions of moisture pathways for past glaciations in the European Alps. Here, we focus on the confluence area of two palaeoglaciers in the Swiss Plateau that were sourced on the northern (Aare glacier) and southern sides (Valais glacier) of the European Alps. We mapped tunnel valleys in the region using a drilling database, based on which we inferred the relative extent of each glacier c. 270 ka ago when the valleys were formed. We then compared this situation with that of the LGM. We found that, while the Valais glacier expanded farther into the foreland than the Aare glacier during the LGM, the opposite was the case c. 270 ka ago. We also found that LGM glaciers were non-erosive in the distal foreland. These contrasts in extents and erosional efficiencies imply differences in moisture pathways between the LGM and the time when the tunnel valleys were formed.

Greening electricity through taxing: An analysis of GATT constraints

This paper examines the legal feasibility of different design options for implementing a differentiated electricity tax based on renewable energy (RE) certificates aimed at promoting green electricity generation. It discusses the issue of likeness in light of the recent WTO jurisprudence and looks at the possibility of justification of differentiated tax rates under the general exceptions of the GATT. It also scrutinizes the potential legal hurdles for the implementation of different tax design options including the use of certificates for RE tax exemption. It argues that the placing of a quota on the number of foreign RE certificates eligible for tax exemptions would likely affect the volumes of imported green electricity and therefore trigger a violation of GATT rules. At the same time, restrictions on the eligibility of RE certificates might be defended under WTO law if they are based on qualitative criteria, such as the attachment of RE certificates to green electricity flows or to a green electricity label that is equally available to domestic and foreign suppliers of RE electricity.

A Unified Approach to Automatic Testing of Architectural Constraints

Architectural decisions are often encoded in the form of constraints and guidelines. Non-functional requirements can be ensured by checking the conformance of the implementation against this kind of invariant. Conformance checking is often a costly and error-prone process that involves the use of multiple tools, differing in effectiveness, complexity and scope of applicability. To reduce the overall effort entailed by this activity, we propose a novel approach that supports verification of human- readable declarative rules through the use of adapted off-the-shelf tools. Our approach consists of a rule specification DSL, called Dicto, and a tool coordination framework, called Probo. The approach has been implemented in a soon to be evaluated prototype.

A probabilistic assessment of calcium carbonate export and dissolution in the modern ocean

The marine cycle of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) is an important element of the carbon cycle and co-governs the distribution of carbon and alkalinity within the ocean. However, CaCO3 export fluxes and mechanisms governing CaCO3 dissolution are highly uncertain. We present an observationally constrained, probabilistic assessment of the global and regional CaCO3 budgets. Parameters governing pelagic CaCO3 export fluxes and dissolution rates are sampled using a Monte Carlo scheme to construct a 1000-member ensemble with the Bern3D ocean model. Ensemble results are constrained by comparing simulated and observation-based fields of excess dissolved calcium carbonate (TA*). The minerals calcite and aragonite are modelled explicitly and ocean–sediment fluxes are considered. For local dissolution rates, either a strong or a weak dependency on CaCO3 saturation is assumed. In addition, there is the option to have saturation-independent dissolution above the saturation horizon. The median (and 68 % confidence interval) of the constrained model ensemble for global biogenic CaCO3 export is 0.90 (0.72–1.05) Gt C yr−1, that is within the lower half of previously published estimates (0.4–1.8 Gt C yr−1). The spatial pattern of CaCO3 export is broadly consistent with earlier assessments. Export is large in the Southern Ocean, the tropical Indo–Pacific, the northern Pacific and relatively small in the Atlantic. The constrained results are robust across a range of diapycnal mixing coefficients and, thus, ocean circulation strengths. Modelled ocean circulation and transport timescales for the different set-ups were further evaluated with CFC11 and radiocarbon observations. Parameters and mechanisms governing dissolution are hardly constrained by either the TA* data or the current compilation of CaCO3 flux measurements such that model realisations with and without saturation-dependent dissolution achieve skill. We suggest applying saturation-independent dissolution rates in Earth system models to minimise computational costs.