Treatment-naive individuals are the major source of transmitted HIV-1 drug resistance in men who have sex with men in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) transmitted drug resistance (TDR) can compromise antiretroviral therapy (ART) and thus represents an important public health concern. Typically, sources of TDR remain unknown, but they can be characterized with molecular epidemiologic approaches. We used the highly representative Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) and linked drug resistance database (SHCS-DRDB) to analyze sources of TDR. METHODS ART-naive men who have sex with men with infection date estimates between 1996 and 2009 were chosen for surveillance of TDR in HIV-1 subtype B (N = 1674), as the SHCS-DRDB contains pre-ART genotypic resistance tests for >69% of this surveillance population. A phylogeny was inferred using pol sequences from surveillance patients and all subtype B sequences from the SHCS-DRDB (6934 additional patients). Potential sources of TDR were identified based on phylogenetic clustering, shared resistance mutations, genetic distance, and estimated infection dates. RESULTS One hundred forty of 1674 (8.4%) surveillance patients carried virus with TDR; 86 of 140 (61.4%) were assigned to clusters. Potential sources of TDR were found for 50 of 86 (58.1%) of these patients. ART-naive patients constitute 56 of 66 (84.8%) potential sources and were significantly overrepresented among sources (odds ratio, 6.43 [95% confidence interval, 3.22-12.82]; P < .001). Particularly large transmission clusters were observed for the L90M mutation, and the spread of L90M continued even after the near cessation of antiretroviral use selecting for that mutation. Three clusters showed evidence of reversion of K103N or T215Y/F. CONCLUSIONS Many individuals harboring viral TDR belonged to transmission clusters with other Swiss patients, indicating substantial domestic transmission of TDR in Switzerland. Most TDR in clusters could be linked to sources, indicating good surveillance of TDR in the SHCS-DRDB. Most TDR sources were ART naive. This, and the presence of long TDR transmission chains, suggests that resistance mutations are frequently transmitted among untreated individuals, highlighting the importance of early diagnosis and treatment.

Clustering of HCV coinfections on HIV phylogeny indicates domestic and sexual transmission of HCV

BACKGROUND: HCV coinfection remains a major cause of morbidity and mortality among HIV-infected individuals and its incidence has increased dramatically in HIV-infected men who have sex with men(MSM). METHODS: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) coinfection in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study(SHCS) was studied by combining clinical data with HIV-1 pol-sequences from the SHCS Drug Resistance Database(DRDB). We inferred maximum-likelihood phylogenetic trees, determined Swiss HIV-transmission pairs as monophyletic patient pairs, and then considered the distribution of HCV on those pairs. RESULTS: Among the 9748 patients in the SHCS-DRDB with known HCV status, 2768(28%) were HCV-positive. Focusing on subtype B(7644 patients), we identified 1555 potential HIV-1 transmission pairs. There, we found that, even after controlling for transmission group, calendar year, age and sex, the odds for an HCV coinfection were increased by an odds ratio (OR) of 3.2 [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.2, 4.7) if a patient clustered with another HCV-positive case. This strong association persisted if transmission groups of intravenous drug users (IDUs), MSMs and heterosexuals (HETs) were considered separately(in all cases OR >2). Finally we found that HCV incidence was increased by a hazard ratio of 2.1 (1.1, 3.8) for individuals paired with an HCV-positive partner. CONCLUSIONS: Patients whose HIV virus is closely related to the HIV virus of HIV/HCV-coinfected patients have a higher risk for carrying or acquiring HCV themselves. This indicates the occurrence of domestic and sexual HCV transmission and allows the identification of patients with a high HCV-infection risk.

Alarm systems and catastrophes from a diverse point of view

Using a chain of urns, we build a Bayesian nonparametric alarm system to predict catastrophic events, such as epidemics, black outs, etc. Differently from other alarm systems in the literature, our model is constantly updated on the basis of the available information, according to the Bayesian paradigm. The papers contains both theoretical and empirical results. In particular, we test our alarm system on a well-known time series of sunspots.

An urn-based Bayesian block bootstrap

Block bootstrap has been introduced in the literature for resampling dependent data, i.e. stationary processes. One of the main assumptions in block bootstrapping is that the blocks of observations are exchangeable, i.e. their joint distribution is immune to permutations. In this paper we propose a new Bayesian approach to block bootstrapping, starting from the construction of exchangeable blocks. Our sampling mechanism is based on a particular class of reinforced urn processes

The Individualized Genetic Barrier Predicts Treatment Response in a Large Cohort of HIV-1 Infected Patients

The success of combination antiretroviral therapy is limited by the evolutionary escape dynamics of HIV-1. We used Isotonic Conjunctive Bayesian Networks (I-CBNs), a class of probabilistic graphical models, to describe this process. We employed partial order constraints among viral resistance mutations, which give rise to a limited set of mutational pathways, and we modeled phenotypic drug resistance as monotonically increasing along any escape pathway. Using this model, the individualized genetic barrier (IGB) to each drug is derived as the probability of the virus not acquiring additional mutations that confer resistance. Drug-specific IGBs were combined to obtain the IGB to an entire regimen, which quantifies the virus' genetic potential for developing drug resistance under combination therapy. The IGB was tested as a predictor of therapeutic outcome using between 2,185 and 2,631 treatment change episodes of subtype B infected patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study Database, a large observational cohort. Using logistic regression, significant univariate predictors included most of the 18 drugs and single-drug IGBs, the IGB to the entire regimen, the expert rules-based genotypic susceptibility score (GSS), several individual mutations, and the peak viral load before treatment change. In the multivariate analysis, the only genotype-derived variables that remained significantly associated with virological success were GSS and, with 10-fold stronger association, IGB to regimen. When predicting suppression of viral load below 400 cps/ml, IGB outperformed GSS and also improved GSS-containing predictors significantly, but the difference was not significant for suppression below 50 cps/ml. Thus, the IGB to regimen is a novel data-derived predictor of treatment outcome that has potential to improve the interpretation of genotypic drug resistance tests.

Higher CNS Penetration-Effectiveness of Long-term Combination Antiretroviral Therapy Is Associated With Better HIV-1 Viral Suppression in Cerebrospinal Fluid

Objectives: To determine HIV-1 RNA in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of successfully treated patients and to evaluate if combination antiretroviral treatments with higher central nervous system penetration-effectiveness (CPE) achieve better CSF viral suppression. Methods: Viral loads (VLs) and drug concentrations of lopinavir, atazanavir, and efavirenz were measured in plasma and CSF. The CPE was calculated using 2 different methods. Results: The authors analyzed 87 CSF samples of 60 patients. In 4 CSF samples, HIV-1 RNA was detectable with 43–82 copies per milliliter. Median CPE in patients with detectable CSF VL was significantly lower compared with individuals with undetectable VL: CPE of 1.0 (range, 1.0–1.5) versus 2.3 (range, 1.0–3.5) using the method of 2008 (P = 0.011) and CPE of 6 (range, 6–8) versus 8 (range, 5–12) using the method of 2010 (P = 0.022). The extrapolated CSF trough levels for atazanavir (n = 12) were clearly above the 50% inhibitory concentration (IC50) in only 25% of samples; both patients on atazanavir/ritonavir with detectable CSF HIV-1 RNA had trough levels in the range of the presumed IC50. The extrapolated CSF trough level for lopinavir (n = 42) and efavirenz (n = 18) were above the IC50 in 98% and 78%, respectively, of samples, including the patients with detectable CSF HIV-1 RNA. Conclusions: This study suggests that treatment regimens with high intracerebral efficacy reflected by a high CPE score are essential to achieve CSF HIV-1 RNA suppression. The CPE score including all drug components was a better predictor for treatment failure in the CSF than the sole concentrations of protease inhibitor or nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor in plasma or CSF.

Risk factors for anal cancer in persons infected with HIV: a nested case-control study in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Although persons infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), particularly men who have sex with men, are at excess risk for anal cancer, it has been difficult to disentangle the influences of anal exposure to human papillomavirus (HPV) infection, immunodeficiency, and combined antiretroviral therapy. A case-control study that included 59 anal cancer cases and 295 individually matched controls was nested in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (1988-2011). In a subset of 41 cases and 114 controls, HPV antibodies were tested. A majority of anal cancer cases (73%) were men who have sex with men. Current smoking was significantly associated with anal cancer (odds ratio (OR) = 2.59, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.25, 5.34), as were antibodies against L1 (OR = 4.52, 95% CI: 2.00, 10.20) and E6 (OR = ∞, 95% CI: 4.64, ∞) of HPV16, as well as low CD4+ cell counts, whether measured at nadir (OR per 100-cell/μL decrease = 1.53, 95% CI: 1.18, 2.00) or at cancer diagnosis (OR per 100-cell/μL decrease = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.08, 1.42). However, the influence of CD4+ cell counts appeared to be strongest 6-7 years prior to anal cancer diagnosis (OR for <200 vs. ≥500 cells/μL = 14.0, 95% CI: 3.85, 50.9). Smoking cessation and avoidance of even moderate levels of immunosuppression appear to be important in reducing long-term anal cancer risks.

Risk of Cardiovascular Events and Blood Pressure Control in Hypertensive HIV-Infected Patients: HIV Cohort Study (SHCS)

Background: Prevalence of hypertension in HIV infection is high, and information on blood pressure control in HIV-infected individuals is insufficient. We modeled blood pressure over time and the risk of cardiovascular events in hypertensive HIV-infected individuals. Methods: All patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study with confirmed hypertension (systolic or diastolic blood pressure above 139 or 89 mm Hg on 2 consecutive visits and presence of at least 1 additional cardiovascular risk factor) between April 1, 2000 and March 31, 2011 were included. Patients with previous cardiovascular events, already on antihypertensive drugs, and pregnant women were excluded. Change in blood pressure over time was modeled using linear mixed models with repeated measurement. Results: Hypertension was diagnosed in 2595 of 10,361 eligible patients. Of those, 869 initiated antihypertensive treatment. For patients treated for hypertension, we found a mean (95% confidence interval) decrease in systolic and diastolic blood pressure of −0.82 (−1.06 to −0.58) mm Hg and −0.89 (−1.05 to −0.73) mm Hg/yr, respectively. Factors associated with a decline in systolic blood pressure were baseline blood pressure, presence of chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular events, and the typical risk factors for cardiovascular disease. In patients with hypertension, increase in systolic blood pressure [(hazard ratio 1.18 (1.06 to 1.32) per 10 mm Hg increase], total cholesterol, smoking, age, and cumulative exposure to protease inhibitor–based and triple nucleoside regimens were associated with cardiovascular events. Conclusions: Insufficient control of hypertension was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events indicating the need for improved management of hypertension in HIV-infected individuals.

Marked increase of the astrocytic marker S100B in the cerebrospinal fluid of HIV-infected patients on LPV/r-monotherapy

Objective: To determine changes of cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers of patients on monotherapy with lopinavir/ritonavir. Design: The Monotherapy Switzerland/Thailand study (MOST) trial compared monotherapy with ritonavir-boosted lopinavir with continued therapy. The trial was prematurely stopped due to virological failure in six patients on monotherapy. It, thus, offers a unique opportunity to assess brain markers in the early stage of HIV virological escape. Methods: Sixty-five CSF samples (34 on continued therapy and 31 on monotherapy) from 49 HIV-positive patients enrolled in MOST. Using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, we determined the CSF concentration of S100B (astrocytosis), neopterin (inflammation), total Tau (tTau), phosphorylated Tau (pTau), and amyloid-β 1–42 (Aβ), the latter three indicating neuronal damage. Controls were CSF samples of 29 HIV-negative patients with Alzheimer dementia. Results: In the CSF of monotherapy, concentrations of S100B and neopterin were significantly higher than in continued therapy (P = 0.006 and P = 0.013, respectively) and Alzheimer dementia patients (P < 0.0001 and P = 0.0005, respectively). In Alzheimer dementia, concentration of Aβ was lower than in monotherapy (P = 0.005) and continued therapy (P = 0.016) and concentrations of tTau were higher than in monotherapy (P = 0.019) and continued therapy (P = 0.001). There was no difference in pTau among the three groups. After removal of the 16 CSF with detectable viral load in the blood and/or CSF, only S100B remained significantly higher in monotherapy than in the two other groups. Conclusion: Despite full viral load-suppression in blood and CSF, antiretroviral monotherapy with lopinavir/ritonavir can raise CSF levels of S100B, suggesting astrocytic damage.

Botulinum toxin A and B raise blood flow and increase survival of critically ischemic skin flaps

BACKGROUND Botulinum toxin (BTX) A and B are commonly used for aesthetic indications and in neuromuscular disorders. New concepts seek to prove efficacy of BTX for critical tissue perfusion. Our aim was to evaluate BTX A and B in a mouse model of critical flap ischemia for preoperative and intraoperative application. METHODS BTX A and B were applied on the vascular pedicle of an axial pattern flap in mice preoperatively or intraoperatively. Blood flow, tissue oxygenation, tissue metabolism, flap necrosis rate, apoptosis assay, and RhoA and eNOS expression were endpoints. RESULTS Blood-flow measurements 1 d after the flap operation revealed a significant reduction to 53% in the control group, while flow was maintained or increased in all BTX groups (103%-129%). Over 5 d all BTX groups showed significant increase in blood flow to 166-187% (P < 0.01). Microdialysis revealed an increase of glucose and reduced lactate/pyruvate ratio and glycerol levels in the flap tissue of all BTX groups. This resulted in significantly improved tissue survival in all BTX groups compared with the control group (62% ± 10%; all P < 0.01): BTX A preconditioning (84% ± 5%), BTX A application intraoperatively (88% ± 4%), BTX B preconditioning (91% ± 4%), and intraoperative BTX B treatment (92% ± 5%). This was confirmed by TUNEL assay. Immunofluorescence demonstrated RhoA and eNOS expression in BTX groups. All BTX applications were similarly effective, despite pharmacologic dissimilarities and different timing. CONCLUSIONS In conclusion, we were able to show on a vascular, tissue, cell, and molecular level that BTX injection to the feeding arteries supports flap survival through ameliorated blood flow and oxygen delivery.

Augmented environments for the targeting of hepatic lesions during image-guided robotic liver surgery

BACKGROUND Stereotactic navigation technology can enhance guidance during surgery and enable the precise reproduction of planned surgical strategies. Currently, specific systems (such as the CAS-One system) are available for instrument guidance in open liver surgery. This study aims to evaluate the implementation of such a system for the targeting of hepatic tumors during robotic liver surgery. MATERIAL AND METHODS Optical tracking references were attached to one of the robotic instruments and to the robotic endoscopic camera. After instrument and video calibration and patient-to-image registration, a virtual model of the tracked instrument and the available three-dimensional images of the liver were displayed directly within the robotic console, superimposed onto the endoscopic video image. An additional superimposed targeting viewer allowed for the visualization of the target tumor, relative to the tip of the instrument, for an assessment of the distance between the tumor and the tool for the realization of safe resection margins. RESULTS Two cirrhotic patients underwent robotic navigated atypical hepatic resections for hepatocellular carcinoma. The augmented endoscopic view allowed for the definition of an accurate resection margin around the tumor. The overlay of reconstructed three-dimensional models was also used during parenchymal transection for the identification of vascular and biliary structures. Operative times were 240 min in the first case and 300 min in the second. There were no intraoperative complications. CONCLUSIONS The da Vinci Surgical System provided an excellent platform for image-guided liver surgery with a stable optic and instrumentation. Robotic image guidance might improve the surgeon's orientation during the operation and increase accuracy in tumor resection. Further developments of this technological combination are needed to deal with organ deformation during surgery.

The rate of recovery in renal function when patients with HIV infection discontinue treatment with tenofovir

OBJECTIVES Tenofovir is associated with reduced renal function. It is not clear whether patients can be expected to fully recover their renal function if tenofovir is discontinued. METHODS We calculated the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) for patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study remaining on tenofovir for at least 1 year after starting a first antiretroviral therapy regimen with tenofovir and either efavirenz or the ritonavir-boosted protease inhibitor lopinavir, atazanavir or darunavir. We estimated the difference in eGFR slope between those who discontinued tenofovir after 1 year and those who remained on tenofovir. RESULTS A total of 1049 patients on tenofovir for at least 1 year were then followed for a median of 26 months, during which time 259 patients (25%) discontinued tenofovir. After 1 year on tenofovir, the difference in eGFR between those starting with efavirenz and those starting with lopinavir, atazanavir and darunavir was - 0.7 [95% confidence interval (CI) -2.3 to 0.8], -1.4 (95% CI -3.2 to 0.3) and 0.0 (95% CI -1.7 to 1.7) mL/min/1.73 m(2) , respectively. The estimated linear rate of decline in eGFR on tenofovir was -1.1 (95% CI -1.5 to -0.8) mL/min/1.73 m(2) per year and its recovery after discontinuing tenofovir was 2.1 (95% CI 1.3 to 2.9) mL/min/1.73 m(2) per year. Patients starting tenofovir with either lopinavir or atazanavir appeared to have the same rates of decline and recovery as those starting tenofovir with efavirenz. CONCLUSIONS If patients discontinue tenofovir, clinicians can expect renal function to recover more rapidly than it declined.

Social skills as predictors of communication, performance and quality of collaboration in project-based learning

The assumption that social skills are necessary ingredients of collaborative learning is well established but rarely empirically tested. In addition, most theories on collaborative learning focus on social skills only at the personal level, while the social skill configurations within a learning group might be of equal importance. Using the integrative framework, this study investigates which social skills at the personal level and at the group level are predictive of task-related e-mail communication, satisfaction with performance and perceived quality of collaboration. Data collection took place in a technology-enhanced long-term project-based learning setting for pre-service teachers. For data collection, two questionnaires were used, one at the beginning and one at the end of the learning cycle which lasted 3 months. During the project phase, the e-mail communication between group members was captured as well. The investigation of 60 project groups (N = 155 for the questionnaires; group size: two or three students) and 33 groups for the e-mail communication (N = 83) revealed that personal social skills played only a minor role compared to group level configurations of social skills in predicting satisfaction with performance, perceived quality of collaboration and communication behaviour. Members from groups that showed a high and/or homogeneous configuration of specific social skills (e.g., cooperation/compromising, leadership) usually were more satisfied and saw their group as more efficient than members from groups with a low and/or heterogeneous configuration of skills.

In Vitro Testing of a Temporary Catheter-Based Aortic "Parachute" Valve

Recently developed technologies allow aortic valve implantation off-pump in a beating heart. In this procedure, the native, stenotic aortic valve is not removed, but simply crushed by a pressure balloon mounted on a percutaneous catheter. Removal of the native aortic cusps before valve replacement may reduce the incidence of annular or cuspal calcium embolization and late perivalvular leaks and increase implantable valve size. However, a temporary valve system in the ascending aorta may be necessary to maintain hemodynamic stability by reducing acute aortic regurgitation and left ventricular volume overload. This study evaluates the hemodynamic effects of a wire-mounted, monoleaflet, temporary valve apparatus in a mechanical cardiovascular simulator. Aortic flow, systemic pressure and left ventricular pressure were continuously monitored. An intraluminal camera obtained real-time proximal and distal images of the valve in operation. Insertion of the parachute valve in the simulator increased diastolic pressure from 7 to 38 mm Hg. Cardiac output increased from 2.08 to 4.66 L/min and regurgitant volume decreased from 65 to 23 mL. In conclusion, placement of a temporary valve in the ascending aorta may help maintain hemodynamic stability and improve off-pump aortic valve replacement.