111 resultados para Forecasting accuracy


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Aims: To evaluate the accuracy and reproducibility of aortic annulus sizing using a multislice computed tomography (MSCT) based aortic root reconstruction tool compared with conventional imaging among patients evaluated for transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). Methods and results: Patients referred for TAVR underwent standard preprocedural assessment of aortic annulus parameters using MSCT, angiography and transoesophageal echocardiography (TEE). Three-dimensional (3-D) reconstruction of MSCT images of the aortic root was performed using 3mensio (3mensio Medical Imaging BV, Bilthoven, The Netherlands), allowing for semi-automated delineation of the annular plane and assessment of annulus perimeter, area, maximum, minimum and virtual diameters derived from area and perimeter (aVD and pVD). A total of 177 patients were enrolled. We observed a good inter-observer variability of 3-D reconstruction assessments with concordance coefficients for agreement of 0.91 (95% CI: 0.87-0.93) and 0.91 (0.88-0.94) for annulus perimeter and area assessments, respectively. 3-D derived pVD and aVD correlated very closely with a concordance coefficient of 0.97 (0.96-0.98) with a mean difference of 0.5±0.3 mm (pVD-aVD). 3-D derived pVD showed the best, but moderate concordance with diameters obtained from coronal MSCT (0.67, 0.56-0.75; 0.3±1.8 mm), and the lowest concordance with diameters obtained from TEE (0.42, 0.31-0.52; 1.9±1.9 mm). Conclusions: MSCT-based 3-D reconstruction of the aortic annulus using the 3mensio software enables accurate and reproducible assessment of aortic annulus dimensions.

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HYPOTHESIS A previously developed image-guided robot system can safely drill a tunnel from the lateral mastoid surface, through the facial recess, to the middle ear, as a viable alternative to conventional mastoidectomy for cochlear electrode insertion. BACKGROUND Direct cochlear access (DCA) provides a minimally invasive tunnel from the lateral surface of the mastoid through the facial recess to the middle ear for cochlear electrode insertion. A safe and effective tunnel drilled through the narrow facial recess requires a highly accurate image-guided surgical system. Previous attempts have relied on patient-specific templates and robotic systems to guide drilling tools. In this study, we report on improvements made to an image-guided surgical robot system developed specifically for this purpose and the resulting accuracy achieved in vitro. MATERIALS AND METHODS The proposed image-guided robotic DCA procedure was carried out bilaterally on 4 whole head cadaver specimens. Specimens were implanted with titanium fiducial markers and imaged with cone-beam CT. A preoperative plan was created using a custom software package wherein relevant anatomical structures of the facial recess were segmented, and a drill trajectory targeting the round window was defined. Patient-to-image registration was performed with the custom robot system to reference the preoperative plan, and the DCA tunnel was drilled in 3 stages with progressively longer drill bits. The position of the drilled tunnel was defined as a line fitted to a point cloud of the segmented tunnel using principle component analysis (PCA function in MatLab). The accuracy of the DCA was then assessed by coregistering preoperative and postoperative image data and measuring the deviation of the drilled tunnel from the plan. The final step of electrode insertion was also performed through the DCA tunnel after manual removal of the promontory through the external auditory canal. RESULTS Drilling error was defined as the lateral deviation of the tool in the plane perpendicular to the drill axis (excluding depth error). Errors of 0.08 ± 0.05 mm and 0.15 ± 0.08 mm were measured on the lateral mastoid surface and at the target on the round window, respectively (n =8). Full electrode insertion was possible for 7 cases. In 1 case, the electrode was partially inserted with 1 contact pair external to the cochlea. CONCLUSION The purpose-built robot system was able to perform a safe and reliable DCA for cochlear implantation. The workflow implemented in this study mimics the envisioned clinical procedure showing the feasibility of future clinical implementation.

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Cost-efficient operation while satisfying performance and availability guarantees in Service Level Agreements (SLAs) is a challenge for Cloud Computing, as these are potentially conflicting objectives. We present a framework for SLA management based on multi-objective optimization. The framework features a forecasting model for determining the best virtual machine-to-host allocation given the need to minimize SLA violations, energy consumption and resource wasting. A comprehensive SLA management solution is proposed that uses event processing for monitoring and enables dynamic provisioning of virtual machines onto the physical infrastructure. We validated our implementation against serveral standard heuristics and were able to show that our approach is significantly better.

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Narcissists’ perception of others is marked by a negative bias in the service of their own self-enhancement. The aim of this study was to determine whether narcissists’ negative bias extends to the perception of romantic partners too. In addition, we explored whether partners of narcissists succumb to specific perception biases as well. During 14 days, 86 couples completed measures of support given to and received from their partners. The results indicated that both male and female narcissists were more accurate in detecting negative support (e.g., blaming the partner for his or her problems) received from their partners, while female narcissists only were less accurate in perceiving altruistic support motives (e.g., truly enjoying to help the partner) of their male partner. Moreover, narcissists as well as their partners displayed a negative bias by underestimating the amount of altruistic support motives reported by each of them. On the other hand, partners of narcissists were positively biased as well and underestimated the negative support given by the narcissists. Results are discussed in relation to the self-regulatory goals of narcissists and of their partners and with respect to the possible impact of their accuracy and biases on the couple wellbeing.

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AIMS: We conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the accuracy of quantitative stress myocardial contrast echocardiography (MCE) in coronary artery disease (CAD). METHODS AND RESULTS: Database search was performed through January 2008. We included studies evaluating accuracy of quantitative stress MCE for detection of CAD compared with coronary angiography or single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) and measuring reserve parameters of A, beta, and Abeta. Data from studies were verified and supplemented by the authors of each study. Using random effects meta-analysis, we estimated weighted mean difference (WMD), likelihood ratios (LRs), diagnostic odds ratios (DORs), and summary area under curve (AUC), all with 95% confidence interval (CI). Of 1443 studies, 13 including 627 patients (age range, 38-75 years) and comparing MCE with angiography (n = 10), SPECT (n = 1), or both (n = 2) were eligible. WMD (95% CI) were significantly less in CAD group than no-CAD group: 0.12 (0.06-0.18) (P < 0.001), 1.38 (1.28-1.52) (P < 0.001), and 1.47 (1.18-1.76) (P < 0.001) for A, beta, and Abeta reserves, respectively. Pooled LRs for positive test were 1.33 (1.13-1.57), 3.76 (2.43-5.80), and 3.64 (2.87-4.78) and LRs for negative test were 0.68 (0.55-0.83), 0.30 (0.24-0.38), and 0.27 (0.22-0.34) for A, beta, and Abeta reserves, respectively. Pooled DORs were 2.09 (1.42-3.07), 15.11 (7.90-28.91), and 14.73 (9.61-22.57) and AUCs were 0.637 (0.594-0.677), 0.851 (0.828-0.872), and 0.859 (0.842-0.750) for A, beta, and Abeta reserves, respectively. CONCLUSION: Evidence supports the use of quantitative MCE as a non-invasive test for detection of CAD. Standardizing MCE quantification analysis and adherence to reporting standards for diagnostic tests could enhance the quality of evidence in this field.

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BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Internet-based surveys provide a potentially important tool for Inflammatory Bowel Disease (IBD) research. The advantages include low cost, large numbers of participants, rapid study completion and less extensive infrastructure than traditional methods. The aim was to determine the accuracy of patient self-reporting in internet-based IBD research and identify predictors of greater reliability. METHODS: 197 patients from a tertiary care center answered an online survey concerning personal medical history and an evaluation of disease specific knowledge. Self-reported medical details were compared with data abstracted from medical records. Agreement was assessed by kappa (κ) statistics. RESULTS: Participants responded correctly with excellent agreement (κ=0.96-0.97) on subtype of IBD and history of surgery. The agreement was also excellent for colectomy (κ=0.88) and small bowel resection (κ=0.91), moderate for abscesses and fistulas (κ=0.60 and 0.63), but poor regarding partial colectomy (κ=0.39). Time since last colonoscopy was self-reported with better agreement (κ=0.84) than disease activity. For disease location/extent, moderate agreements at κ=69% and 64% were observed for patients with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, respectively. Subjects who scored higher than the average in the IBD knowledge assessment were significantly more accurate about disease location than their complementary group (74% vs. 59%, p=0.02). CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that IBD patients accurately report their medical history regarding type of disease and surgical procedures. More detailed medical information is less reliably reported. Disease knowledge assessment may help in identifying the most accurate individuals and could therefore serve as validity criteria. Internet-based surveys are feasible with high reliability about basic disease features only. However, the participants in this study were engaged at a tertiary center, which potentially leads to a bias and compromises generalization to an unfiltered patient group.

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Firn and polar ice cores offer the only direct palaeoatmospheric archive. Analyses of past greenhouse gas concentrations and their isotopic compositions in air bubbles in the ice can help to constrain changes in global biogeochemical cycles in the past. For the analysis of the hydrogen isotopic composition of methane (δD(CH4) or δ2H(CH4)) 0.5 to 1.5 kg of ice was hitherto used. Here we present a method to improve precision and reduce the sample amount for δD(CH4) measurements in (ice core) air. Pre-concentrated methane is focused in front of a high temperature oven (pre-pyrolysis trapping), and molecular hydrogen formed by pyrolysis is trapped afterwards (post-pyrolysis trapping), both on a carbon-PLOT capillary at −196 °C. Argon, oxygen, nitrogen, carbon monoxide, unpyrolysed methane and krypton are trapped together with H2 and must be separated using a second short, cooled chromatographic column to ensure accurate results. Pre- and post-pyrolysis trapping largely removes the isotopic fractionation induced during chromatographic separation and results in a narrow peak in the mass spectrometer. Air standards can be measured with a precision better than 1‰. For polar ice samples from glacial periods, we estimate a precision of 2.3‰ for 350 g of ice (or roughly 30 mL – at standard temperature and pressure (STP) – of air) with 350 ppb of methane. This corresponds to recent tropospheric air samples (about 1900 ppb CH4) of about 6 mL (STP) or about 500 pmol of pure CH4.

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This study examines how different microphysical parameterization schemes influence orographically induced precipitation and the distributions of hydrometeors and water vapour for midlatitude summer conditions in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A high-resolution two-dimensional idealized simulation is used to assess the differences between the schemes in which a moist air flow is interacting with a bell-shaped 2 km high mountain. Periodic lateral boundary conditions are chosen to recirculate atmospheric water in the domain. It is found that the 13 selected microphysical schemes conserve the water in the model domain. The gain or loss of water is less than 0.81% over a simulation time interval of 61 days. The differences of the microphysical schemes in terms of the distributions of water vapour, hydrometeors and accumulated precipitation are presented and discussed. The Kessler scheme, the only scheme without ice-phase processes, shows final values of cloud liquid water 14 times greater than the other schemes. The differences among the other schemes are not as extreme, but still they differ up to 79% in water vapour, up to 10 times in hydrometeors and up to 64% in accumulated precipitation at the end of the simulation. The microphysical schemes also differ in the surface evaporation rate. The WRF single-moment 3-class scheme has the highest surface evaporation rate compensated by the highest precipitation rate. The different distributions of hydrometeors and water vapour of the microphysical schemes induce differences up to 49 W m−2 in the downwelling shortwave radiation and up to 33 W m−2 in the downwelling longwave radiation.