The dominant role of semi-arid ecosystems in the trend and variability of the land CO2 sink

The growth rate of atmospheric carbondioxide(CO2) concentrations since industrialization is characterized by large interannual variability, mostly resulting from variability in CO 2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems (typically termed carbon sink). However, the contributions of regional ecosystems to that variability are not well known. Using an ensemble of ecosystem and land-surface models and an empirical observation-based product of global gross primary production, we show that the mean sink, trend, and interannual variability in CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems are dominated by distinct biogeographic regions. Whereas the mean sink is dominated by highly productive lands (mainly tropical forests), the trend and interannual variability of the sink are dominated by semi-arid ecosystems whose carbon balance is strongly associated with circulation-driven variations in both precipitation and temperature.

First steps towards probabilistic justification logic

In this article, we introduce the probabilistic justification logic PJ, a logic in which we can reason about the probability of justification statements. We present its syntax and semantics, and establish a strong completeness theorem. Moreover, we investigate the relationship between PJ and the logic of uncertain justifications.

Searching the hearts of graphene-like molecules for simplicity, sensitivity and logic

If quantum interference patterns in the hearts of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) could be isolated and manipulated, then a significant step towards realizing the potential of single-molecule electronics would be achieved. Here we demonstrate experimentally and theoretically that a simple, parameter-free, analytic theory of interference patterns evaluated at the mid-point of the HOMO-LUMO gap (referred to as M-functions) correctly predicts conductance ratios of molecules with pyrene, naphthalene, anthracene, anthanthrene or azulene hearts. M-functions provide new design strategies for identifying molecules with phase-coherent logic functions and enhancing the sensitivity of molecular-scale interferometers.

In-situ, satellite measurement and model evidence on the dominant regional contribution to fine particulate matter levels in the Paris Megacity

A detailed characterization of air quality in the megacity of Paris (France) during two 1-month intensive campaigns and from additional 1-year observations revealed that about 70% of the urban background fine particulate matter (PM) is transported on average into the megacity from upwind regions. This dominant influence of regional sources was confirmed by in situ measurements during short intensive and longer-term campaigns, aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from ENVISAT, and modeling results from PMCAMx and CHIMERE chemistry transport models. While advection of sulfate is well documented for other megacities, there was surprisingly high contribution from long-range transport for both nitrate and organic aerosol. The origin of organic PM was investigated by comprehensive analysis of aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS), radiocarbon and tracer measurements during two intensive campaigns. Primary fossil fuel combustion emissions constituted less than 20%in winter and 40%in summer of carbonaceous fine PM, unexpectedly small for a megacity. Cooking activities and, during winter, residential wood burning are the major primary organic PM sources. This analysis suggests that the major part of secondary organic aerosol is of modern origin, i.e., from biogenic precursors and from wood burning. Black carbon concentrations are on the lower end of values encountered in megacities worldwide, but still represent an issue for air quality. These comparatively low air pollution levels are due to a combination of low emissions per inhabitant, flat terrain, and a meteorology that is in general not conducive to local pollution build-up. This revised picture of a megacity only being partially responsible for its own average and peak PM levels has important implications for air pollution regulation policies.

Reconsidering the logic of World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies grading in patients with severe subarachnoid hemorrhage.

OBJECT Current data show a favorable outcome in up to 50% of patients with World Federation of Neurosurgical Societies (WFNS) Grade V subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) and a rather poor prediction of worst cases. Thus, the usefulness of the current WFNS grading system for identifying the worst scenarios for clinical studies and for making treatment decisions is limited. One reason for this lack of differentiation is the use of "negative" or "silent" diagnostic signs as part of the WFNS Grade V definition. The authors therefore reevaluated the WFNS scale by using "positive" clinical signs and the logic of the Glasgow Coma Scale as a progressive herniation score. METHODS The authors performed a retrospective analysis of 182 patients with SAH who had poor grades on the WFNS scale. Patients were graded according to the original WFNS scale and additionally according to a modified classification, the WFNS herniation (hWFNS) scale (Grade IV, no clinical signs of herniation; Grade V, clinical signs of herniation). The prediction of poor outcome was compared between these two grading systems. RESULTS The positive predictive values of Grade V for poor outcome were 74.3% (OR 3.79, 95% CI 1.94-7.54) for WFNS Grade V and 85.7% (OR 8.27, 95% CI 3.78-19.47) for hWFNS Grade V. With respect to mortality, the positive predictive values were 68.3% (OR 3.9, 95% CI 2.01-7.69) for WFNS Grade V and 77.9% (OR 6.22, 95% CI 3.07-13.14) for hWFNS Grade V. CONCLUSIONS Limiting WFNS Grade V to the positive clinical signs of the Glasgow Coma Scale such as flexion, extension, and pupillary abnormalities instead of including "no motor response" increases the prediction of mortality and poor outcome in patients with severe SAH.

Pinus nigra (European black pine) as the dominant species of the last glacial pinewoods in south-western to central Iberia: a morphological study of modern and fossil pollen

Aim Our aim was to discriminate different species of Pinus via pollen analysis in order to assess the responses of particular pine species to orbital and millennial-scale climate changes, particularly during the last glacial period. Location Modern pollen grains were collected from current pine populations along transects from the Pyrenees to southern Iberia and the Balearic Islands. Fossil pine pollen was recovered from the south-western Iberian margin core MD95-2042. Methods We measured a set of morphological traits of modern pollen from the Iberian pine species Pinus nigra, P. sylvestris, P. halepensis, P. pinea and P. pinaster and of fossil pine pollen from selected samples of the last glacial period and the early to mid-Holocene. Classification and regression tree (CART) analysis was used to establish a model from the modern dataset that discriminates pollen from the different pine species and allows identification of fossil pine pollen at the species level. Results The CART model was effective in separating pollen of P. nigra and P. sylvestris from that of the Mediterranean pine group (P. halepensis, P. pinea and P. pinaster). The pollen of Pinus nigra diverged from that of P. sylvestris by having a more flattened corpus. Predictions using this model suggested that fossil pine pollen is mainly from P. nigra in all the samples analysed. Pinus sylvestris was more abundant in samples from Greenland stadials than Heinrich stadials, whereas Mediterranean pines increased in samples from Greenland interstadials and during the early to mid-Holocene. Main conclusions Morphological parameters can be successfully used to increase the taxonomic resolution of fossil pine pollen at the species level for the highland pines (P. nigra and P. sylvestris) and at the group of species level for the Mediterranean pines. Our study indicates that P. nigra was the dominant component of the last glacial south-western/central Iberian pinewoods, although the species composition of these woodlands varied in response to abrupt climate changes.

Schizophrenic Psychoses with Motor-Dominant Symptoms: Considerations for a System-Specific Approach

In order to reduce heterogeneity in schizophrenia, a system-specific approach consisting of the domains "language", "affect" and "motor behavior" has been proposed. We examined this system-specific approach for its applicability to clinical practice in the motor behavior domain, using the methodological approach of case studies, and discuss here the differences to the positive/negative concept. We analyzed eight cases with stable motor-dominant symptoms, and also quantitatively assessed motor behavior by using the Bern Psychopathology Scale (BPS), a standardized psychopathological assessment instrument, as well as actigraphic data. Characterization of cases using the positive/negative approach was not helpful. We found an overlap of the motor behavior domain with the other two domains. This complicates the application of the system-specific approach in the sense of a typology. Furthermore, we found both relapsing courses with full remission and chronic courses with deterioration within the motor-dominant subtype. Nevertheless, the system-specific approach has heuristic utility for the future.

Density-dependent dynamics of a dominant rain forest tree change with juvenile stage and time of masting

Although negative density dependence (NDD) can facilitate tree species coexistence in forests, the underlying mechanisms can differ, and rarely are the dynamics of seedlings and saplings studied together. Herein we present and discuss a novel mechanism based on our investigation of NDD predictions for the large, grove-forming ectomycorrhizal mast fruiting tree, Microberlinia bisulcata (Caesalpiniaceae), in an 82.5-ha plot at Korup, Cameroon. We tested whether juvenile density, size, growth and survival decreases with increasing conspecific adult basal area for 3245 ‘new’ seedlings and 540 ‘old’ seedlings (< 75-cm tall) during an approximately 4-year study period (2008–2012) and for 234 ‘saplings’ (≥ 75-cm tall) during an approximately 6-year study period (2008–2014). We found that the respective densities of new seedlings, old seedlings and saplings were positively, not and negatively related to increasing BA. Maximum leaf numbers and heights of old seedlings were negatively correlated with increasing basal areas, as were sapling heights and stem diameters. Whereas survivorship of new seedlings decreased by more than one-half with increasing basal area over its range in 2010–2012, that of old seedlings decreased by almost two-thirds, but only in 2008–2010, and was generally unrelated to conspecific seedling density. In 2010–2012 relative growth rates in new seedlings’ heights decreased with increasing basal area, as well as with increasing seedling density, together with increasing leaf numbers, whereas old seedlings’ growth was unrelated to either conspecific density or basal area. Saplings of below-average height had reduced survivorship with increasing basal area (probability decreasing from approx. 0.4 to 0.05 over the basal area range tested), but only sapling growth in terms of leaf numbers decreased with increasing basal area. These static and dynamic results indicate that NDD is operating within this system, possibly stabilizing the M. bisulcata population. However, these NDD patterns are unlikely to be caused by symmetric competition or by consumers. Instead, an alternative mechanism for conspecific adult–juvenile negative feedback is proposed, one which involves the interaction between tree phenology and ectomycorrhizal linkages.

Canopy gaps promote selective stem-cutting by small mammals of two dominant tree species in an African lowland forest: the importance of seedling chemistry

Small mammals can impede tree regeneration by injuring seedlings and saplings in several ways. One fatal way is by severing their stems, but apparently this type of predation is not well-studied in tropical rain forest. Here, we report on the incidence of 'stem-cutting' to new, wild seedlings of two locally dominant, canopy tree species monitored in 40 paired forest understorey and gap-habitat areas in Korup, Cameroon following a 2007 masting event. In gap areas, which are required for the upward growth and sapling recruitment of both species, 137 seedlings of the long-lived, light-demanding, fast-growing large tropical tree (Microberlinia bisulcata) were highly susceptible to stem-cutting (83% of deaths) - it killed 39% of all seedlings over a c. 2-y period. In stark contrast, seedlings of the more shade-tolerant, slower-growing tree species (Tetraberlinia bifoliolata) were hardly attacked (4.3%). In the understorey, however, stem-cutting was virtually absent. Across the gap areas, the incidence of stem-cutting of M. bisulcata seedlings showed significant spatial variation that could not be explained significantly by either canopy openness or Janzen-Connell type effects (proximity and basal area of conspecific adult trees). To examine physical and chemical traits that might explain the species difference to being cut, bark and wood tissues were collected from a separate sample of seedlings in gaps (i.e. not monitored for stem-cutting). These analyses suggested that, compared with T. bifoliolata, the lower stem density, higher Mg and K and fatty acid concentrations in bark, and fewer phenolic and terpene compounds in M. bisulcata seedlings made them more palatable and attractive to small-mammal predators, likely rodents. We conclude that selective stem-cutting is a potent countervailing force to the current local canopy dominance of the grove-forming M. bisulcata by limiting the recruitment and abundance of its saplings. Given the ubiquity of gaps and ground-dwelling rodents in pantropical forests, it would be surprising if this form of lethal browsing was restricted to Korup.

The Complexity of Non-Iterated Probabilistic Justification Logic

The logic PJ is a probabilistic logic defined by adding (noniterated) probability operators to the basic justification logic J. In this paper we establish upper and lower bounds for the complexity of the derivability problem in the logic PJ. The main result of the paper is that the complexity of the derivability problem in PJ remains the same as the complexity of the derivability problem in the underlying logic J, which is π[p/2] -complete. This implies that the probability operators do not increase the complexity of the logic, although they arguably enrich the expressiveness of the language.

Probabilistic Justification Logic

We present a probabilistic justification logic, PPJ, to study rational belief, degrees of belief and justifications. We establish soundness and completeness for PPJ and show that its satisfiability problem is decidable. In the last part we use PPJ to provide a solution to the lottery paradox.

Beyond a logic of effectiveness: Horizontal coordination, democratic legitimacy and accountability

Horizontal coordination, where actors join together to accomplish a common task, has been applauded for its output legitimacy. However, such processes often face challenges due to opposition from local actors who raise concerns about democratic legitimacy and accountability. Moving beyond a logic of effectiveness, we aim to show how and why other forms of legitimacy such as input and throughput dimensions also affect horizontal coordination, in addition to output criteria. Beyond the assumed positive relationship between coordination and effectiveness, we additionally expect horizontal coordination to be (a) impeded by local actors' fear of losing democratic legitimacy; and (b) fostered by accountability in terms of the steering capacity of the state. A comparative case study analysis of water supply structures at the regional level in Switzerland shows, in contrast to our expectation, that effectiveness has mixed impacts on horizontal coordination. Rather than being solely a positive factor for horizontal coordination, certain output criteria such as financial redistribution are found to be a key hindrance. We also find that democratic legitimacy may, indeed, impede horizontal coordination whereas increased accountability positively affects such coordination.

Lake-effect snow as the dominant control of mesic-forest distribution in Michigan, USA

1Recent studies demonstrated the sensitivity of northern forest ecosystems to changes in the amount and duration of snow cover at annual to decadal time scales. However, the consequences of snowfall variability remain uncertain for ecological variables operating at longer time scales, especially the distributions of forest communities. 2The Great Lakes region of North America offers a unique setting to examine the long-term effects of variable snowfall on forest communities. Lake-effect snow produces a three-fold gradient in annual snowfall over tens of kilometres, and dramatic edaphic variations occur among landform types resulting from Quaternary glaciations. We tested the hypothesis that these factors interact to control the distributions of mesic (dominated by Acer saccharum, Tsuga canadensis and Fagus grandifolia) and xeric forests (dominated by Pinus and Quercus spp.) in northern Lower Michigan. 3We compiled pre-European-settlement vegetation data and overlaid these data with records of climate, water balance and soil, onto Landtype Association polygons in a geographical information system. We then used multivariate adaptive regression splines to model the abundance of mesic vegetation in relation to environmental controls. 4Snowfall is the most predictive among five variables retained by our model, and it affects model performance 29% more than soil texture, the second most important variable. The abundance of mesic trees is high on fine-textured soils regardless of snowfall, but it increases with snowfall on coarse-textured substrates. Lake-effect snowfall also determines the species composition within mesic forests. The weighted importance of A. saccharum is significantly greater than of T. canadensis or F. grandifolia within the lake-effect snowbelt, whereas T. canadensis is more plentiful outside the snowbelt. These patterns are probably driven by the influence of snowfall on soil moisture, nutrient availability and fire return intervals. 5Our results imply that a key factor dictating the spatio-temporal patterns of forest communities in the vast region around the Great Lakes is how the lake-effect snowfall regime responds to global change. Snowfall reductions will probably cause a major decrease in the abundance of ecologically and economically important species, such as A. saccharum.