97 resultados para Prior Probability


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This article provides an importance sampling algorithm for computing the probability of ruin with recuperation of a spectrally negative Lévy risk process with light-tailed downwards jumps. Ruin with recuperation corresponds to the following double passage event: for some t∈(0,∞)t∈(0,∞), the risk process starting at level x∈[0,∞)x∈[0,∞) falls below the null level during the period [0,t][0,t] and returns above the null level at the end of the period tt. The proposed Monte Carlo estimator is logarithmic efficient, as t,x→∞t,x→∞, when y=t/xy=t/x is constant and below a certain bound.

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Standard stereotaxic reference systems play a key role in human brain studies. Stereotaxic coordinate systems have also been developed for experimental animals including non-human primates, dogs, and rodents. However, they are lacking for other species being relevant in experimental neuroscience including sheep. Here, we present a spatial, unbiased ovine brain template with tissue probability maps (TPM) that offer a detailed stereotaxic reference frame for anatomical features and localization of brain areas, thereby enabling inter-individual and cross-study comparability. Three-dimensional data sets from healthy adult Merino sheep (Ovis orientalis aries, 12 ewes and 26 neutered rams) were acquired on a 1.5 T Philips MRI using a T1w sequence. Data were averaged by linear and non-linear registration algorithms. Moreover, animals were subjected to detailed brain volume analysis including examinations with respect to body weight (BW), age, and sex. The created T1w brain template provides an appropriate population-averaged ovine brain anatomy in a spatial standard coordinate system. Additionally, TPM for gray (GM) and white (WM) matter as well as cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) classification enabled automatic prior-based tissue segmentation using statistical parametric mapping (SPM). Overall, a positive correlation of GM volume and BW explained about 15% of the variance of GM while a positive correlation between WM and age was found. Absolute tissue volume differences were not detected, indeed ewes showed significantly more GM per bodyweight as compared to neutered rams. The created framework including spatial brain template and TPM represent a useful tool for unbiased automatic image preprocessing and morphological characterization in sheep. Therefore, the reported results may serve as a starting point for further experimental and/or translational research aiming at in vivo analysis in this species.

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Determining the role of different precipitation periods for peak discharge generation is crucial for both projecting future changes in flood probability and for short- and medium-range flood forecasting. In this study, catchment-averaged daily precipitation time series are analyzed prior to annual peak discharge events (floods) in Switzerland. The high number of floods considered – more than 4000 events from 101 catchments have been analyzed – allows to derive significant information about the role of antecedent precipitation for peak discharge generation. Based on the analysis of precipitation times series, a new separation of flood-related precipitation periods is proposed: (i) the period 0 to 1 day before flood days, when the maximum flood-triggering precipitation rates are generally observed, (ii) the period 2 to 3 days before flood days, when longer-lasting synoptic situations generate "significantly higher than normal" precipitation amounts, and (iii) the period from 4 days to 1 month before flood days when previous wet episodes may have already preconditioned the catchment. The novelty of this study lies in the separation of antecedent precipitation into the precursor antecedent precipitation (4 days before floods or earlier, called PRE-AP) and the short range precipitation (0 to 3 days before floods, a period when precipitation is often driven by one persistent weather situation like e.g., a stationary low-pressure system). A precise separation of "antecedent" and "peak-triggering" precipitation is not attempted. Instead, the strict definition of antecedent precipitation periods permits a direct comparison of all catchments. The precipitation accumulating 0 to 3 days before an event is the most relevant for floods in Switzerland. PRE-AP precipitation has only a weak and region-specific influence on flood probability. Floods were significantly more frequent after wet PRE-AP periods only in the Jura Mountains, in the western and eastern Swiss plateau, and at the outlet of large lakes. As a general rule, wet PRE-AP periods enhance the flood probability in catchments with gentle topography, high infiltration rates, and large storage capacity (karstic cavities, deep soils, large reservoirs). In contrast, floods were significantly less frequent after wet PRE-AP periods in glacial catchments because of reduced melt. For the majority of catchments however, no significant correlation between precipitation amounts and flood occurrences is found when the last 3 days before floods are omitted in the precipitation amounts. Moreover, the PRE-AP was not higher for extreme floods than for annual floods with a high frequency and was very close to climatology for all floods. The fact that floods are not significantly more frequent nor more intense after wet PRE-AP is a clear indicator of a short discharge memory of Pre-Alpine, Alpine and South Alpine Swiss catchments. Our study poses the question whether the impact of long-term precursory precipitation for floods in such catchments is not overestimated in the general perception. The results suggest that the consideration of a 3–4 days precipitation period should be sufficient to represent (understand, reconstruct, model, project) Swiss Alpine floods.

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A large deviations type approximation to the probability of ruin within a finite time for the compound Poisson risk process perturbed by diffusion is derived. This approximation is based on the saddlepoint method and generalizes the approximation for the non-perturbed risk process by Barndorff-Nielsen and Schmidli (Scand Actuar J 1995(2):169–186, 1995). An importance sampling approximation to this probability of ruin is also provided. Numerical illustrations assess the accuracy of the saddlepoint approximation using importance sampling as a benchmark. The relative deviations between saddlepoint approximation and importance sampling are very small, even for extremely small probabilities of ruin. The saddlepoint approximation is however substantially faster to compute.

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OBJECTIVE Our aim was to compare outcomes with and without up-front neck dissection prior to (chemo)radiotherapy in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. STUDY DESIGN Case series with chart review. SETTING Tertiary referral center. SUBJECTS AND METHODS Outcomes of oropharyngeal, laryngeal, and hypopharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma cases with neck lymph node metastases treated from January 2001 to March 2012 were analyzed. Due to imbalances in baseline characteristics between groups treated with (n = 129) and without (n = 95) up-front neck dissection, propensity score matching was performed. RESULTS Median follow-up was 48 months (range, 12-148). With up-front neck dissection, the hazard ratio for the primary end point, disease-free survival, was 0.63 (95% confidence interval: 0.37-1.06, P = .08). Up-front neck dissection reduced acute grade ≥3 toxicity significantly when xerostomia was excluded (odds ratio: 0.40, 95% confidence interval: 0.20-0.82, P = .012). CONCLUSION Our results indicate less acute treatment toxicity without any significant difference in terms of oncologic outcome with up-front neck dissection prior to (chemo)radiotherapy as compared with (chemo)radiotherapy alone. Well-designed randomized trials are required to verify this result and further investigate the impact of this strategy on late toxicity and oncologic outcome.

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PURPOSE This study aimed at assessing the cement leakage rate and the filling pattern in patients treated with vertebroplasty, kyphoplasty and stentoplasty with and without a newly developed lavage technique. STUDY DESIGN Retrospective clinical case-control study. METHODS A newly developed bipedicular lavage technique prior to cement application was applied in 64 patients (45.1 %) with 116 vertebrae, ("lavage" group). A conventional bipedicular cement injection technique was used in 78 patients (54.9 %) with 99 levels ("controls"). The outcome measures were filling patterns and leakage rates. RESULTS The overall leakage rate (venous, cortical defect, intradiscal) was 37.9 % in the lavage and 83.8 % in the control group (p < 0.001). Venous leakage (lavage 12.9 % vs. controls 31.3 %; p = 0.001) and cortical defect leakage (lavage 17.2 % vs. controls 63.3 %; p < 0.001) were significantly lower in the lavage group compared to "controls," whereas intradiscal leakages were similar in both groups (lavage 12.1 % vs. controls 15.2 %; p = 0.51). For venous leakage multivariate logistic regression analysis showed lavage to be the only independent predictor. Lavage was associated with 0.33-times (95 % CI 0.16-0.65; p = 0.001) lower likelihood for leakage in compared to controls. CONCLUSIONS Vertebral body lavage prior to cement augmentation is a safe technique to reduce cement leakage in a clinical setting and has the potential to prevent pulmonary fat embolism. Moreover, a better filling pattern can be achieved.

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BACKGROUND In contrast to objective structured clinical examinations (OSCEs), mini-clinical evaluation exercises (mini-CEXs) take place at the clinical workplace. As both mini-CEXs and OSCEs assess clinical skills, but within different contexts, this study aims at analyzing to which degree students' mini-CEX scores can be predicted by their recent OSCE scores and/or context characteristics. METHODS Medical students participated in an end of Year 3 OSCE and in 11 mini-CEXs during 5 different clerkships of Year 4. The students' mean scores of 9 clinical skills OSCE stations and mean 'overall' and 'domain' mini-CEX scores, averaged over all mini-CEXs of each student were computed. Linear regression analyses including random effects were used to predict mini-CEX scores by OSCE performance and characteristics of clinics, trainers, students and assessments. RESULTS A total of 512 trainers in 45 clinics provided 1783 mini-CEX ratings for 165 students; OSCE results were available for 144 students (87 %). Most influential for the prediction of 'overall' mini-CEX scores was the trainers' clinical position with a regression coefficient of 0.55 (95 %-CI: 0.26-0.84; p < .001) for residents compared to heads of department. Highly complex tasks and assessments taking place in large clinics significantly enhanced 'overall' mini-CEX scores, too. In contrast, high OSCE performance did not significantly increase 'overall' mini-CEX scores. CONCLUSION In our study, Mini-CEX scores depended rather on context characteristics than on students' clinical skills as demonstrated in an OSCE. Ways are discussed which focus on either to enhance the scores' validity or to use narrative comments only.

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A common debate among dermatopathologists is that prior knowledge of the clinical picture of melanocytic skin neoplasms may introduce a potential bias in the histopathologic examination. Histologic slides from 99 melanocytic skin neoplasms were circulated among 10 clinical dermatologists, all of them formally trained and board-certified dermatopathologists: 5 dermatopathologists had clinical images available after a 'blind' examination (Group 1); the other 5 had clinical images available before microscopic examination (Group 2). Data from the two groups were compared regarding 'consensus' (a diagnosis in agreement by ≥4 dermatopathologists/group), chance-corrected interobserver agreement (Fleiss' k) and level of diagnostic confidence (LDC: a 1-5 arbitrary scale indicating 'increasing reliability' of any given diagnosis). Compared with Group 1 dermatopathologists, Group 2 achieved a lower number of consensus (84 vs. 90) but a higher k value (0.74 vs. 0.69) and a greater mean LDC value (4.57 vs. 4.32). The same consensus was achieved by the two groups in 81/99 cases. Spitzoid neoplasms were most frequently controversial for both groups. The histopathologic interpretation of melanocytic neoplasms seems to be not biased by the knowledge of the clinical picture before histopathologic examination.

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The objective of this study was to assess implant therapy after a staged guided bone regeneration procedure in the anterior maxilla by lateralization of the nasopalatine nerve and vessel bundle. Neurosensory function following augmentative procedures and implant placement, assessed using a standardized questionnaire and clinical examination, were the primary outcome variables measured. This retrospective study included patients with a bone defect in the anterior maxilla in need of horizontal and/or vertical ridge augmentation prior to dental implant placement. The surgical sites were allowed to heal for at least 6 months before placement of dental implants. All patients received fixed implant-supported restorations and entered into a tightly scheduled maintenance program. In addition to the maintenance program, patients were recalled for a clinical examination and to fill out a questionnaire to assess any changes in the neurosensory function of the nasopalatine nerve at least 6 months after function. Twenty patients were included in the study from February 2001 to December 2010. They received a total of 51 implants after augmentation of the alveolar crest and lateralization of the nasopalatine nerve. The follow-up examination for questionnaire and neurosensory assessment was scheduled after a mean period of 4.18 years of function. None of the patients examined reported any pain, they did not have less or an altered sensation, and they did not experience a "foreign body" feeling in the area of surgery. Overall, 6 patients out of 20 (30%) showed palatal sensibility alterations of the soft tissues in the region of the maxillary canines and incisors resulting in a risk for a neurosensory change of 0.45 mucosal teeth regions per patient after ridge augmentation with lateralization of the nasopalatine nerve. Regeneration of bone defects in the anterior maxilla by horizontal and/or vertical ridge augmentation and lateralization of the nasopalatine nerve prior to dental implant placement is a predictable surgical technique. Whether or not there were clinically measurable impairments of neurosensory function, the patients did not report them or were not bothered by them.