109 resultados para Predictive positive value


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Background: To detect attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in treatment seeking substance use disorders (SUD) patients, a valid screening instrument is needed. Objectives: To test the performance of the Adult ADHD Self-Report Scale V 1.1(ASRS) for adult ADHD in an international sample of treatment seeking SUD patients for DSM-IV-TR; for the proposed DSM-5 criteria; in different subpopulations, at intake and 1–2 weeks after intake; using different scoring algorithms; and different externalizing disorders as external criterion (including adult ADHD, bipolar disorder, antisocial and borderline personality disorder). Methods: In 1138 treatment seeking SUD subjects, ASRS performance was determined using diagnoses based on Conner's Adult ADHD Diagnostic Interview for DSM-IV (CAADID) as gold standard. Results: The prevalence of adult ADHD was 13.0% (95% CI: 11.0–15.0%). The overall positive predictive value (PPV) of the ASRS was 0.26 (95% CI: 0.22–0.30), the negative predictive value (NPV) was 0.97 (95% CI: 0.96–0.98). The sensitivity (0.84, 95% CI: 0.76–0.88) and specificity (0.66, 95% CI: 0.63–0.69) measured at admission were similar to the sensitivity (0.88, 95% CI: 0.83–0.93) and specificity (0.67, 95% CI: 0.64–0.70) measured 2 weeks after admission. Sensitivity was similar, but specificity was significantly better in patients with alcohol compared to (illicit) drugs as the primary substance of abuse (0.76 vs. 0.56). ASRS was not a good screener for externalizing disorders other than ADHD. Conclusions: The ASRS is a sensitive screener for identifying possible ADHD cases with very few missed cases among those screening negative in this population.

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Objective: Impaired cognition is an important dimension in psychosis and its at-risk states. Research on the value of impaired cognition for psychosis prediction in at-risk samples, however, mainly relies on study-specific sample means of neurocognitive tests, which unlike widely available general test norms are difficult to translate into clinical practice. The aim of this study was to explore the combined predictive value of at-risk criteria and neurocognitive deficits according to test norms with a risk stratification approach. Method: Potential predictors of psychosis (neurocognitive deficits and at-risk criteria) over 24 months were investigated in 97 at-risk patients. Results: The final prediction model included (1) at-risk criteria (attenuated psychotic symptoms plus subjective cognitive disturbances) and (2) a processing speed deficit (digit symbol test). The model was stratified into 4 risk classes with hazard rates between 0.0 (both predictors absent) and 1.29 (both predictors present). Conclusions: The combination of a processing speed deficit and at-risk criteria provides an optimized stratified risk assessment. Based on neurocognitive test norms, the validity of our proposed 3 risk classes could easily be examined in independent at-risk samples and, pending positive validation results, our approach could easily be applied in clinical practice in the future.

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Background: Alcohol craving is an essential construct in research and treatment of alcohol use disorders (AUD). Craving is mostly investigated in association with concurrent variables or distal treatment outcomes at follow-up. Objectives: The aim of this study is to examine craving at admission and its relevance for essential proximal outcomes at discharge from AUD treatment such as positive alcohol expectancy, abstinent-related self-efficacy, and substance-related coping, as well as patients’ demographic and AUD characteristics. Methods: In total, 36 patients were recruited within an inpatient treatment AUD program. Results: An association between craving and positive alcohol expectancies at discharge was found in the regression model even when the respective expectancies, age, gender, and severity of alcohol dependence at admission were controlled for (F(2,29)1⁄432.71, p50.001). Craving explained 2.3% of the variance of change in positive alcohol expectancy. Conclusion: The results suggest a low predictive value of craving for positive alcohol expectancy. In addition, we found significant associations between the craving and the severity of AUD and alcohol consumption before admission. Future studies should include proximal outcomes related to treatment efficacy as well as distal outcomes.

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Background. A nonrecognized pneumothorax (PTX) may become a life-threatening tension PTX. A reliable point-of-care diagnostic tool could help in reduce this risk. For this purpose, we investigated the feasibility of the use of the PneumoScan, an innovative device based on micropower impulse radar (MIR). Patients and Methods. addition to a standard diagnostic protocol including clinical examination, chest X-ray (CXR), and computed tomography (CT), 24 consecutive patients with chest trauma underwent PneumoScan testing in the shock trauma room to exclude a PTX. Results. The application of the PneumoScan was simple, quick, and reliable without functional disorder. Clinical examination and CXR each revealed one and PneumoScan three out of altogether four PTXs (sensitivity 75%, specificity 100%, positive predictive value 100%, and negative predictive value 95%). The undetected PTX did not require intervention. Conclusion. The PneumoScan as a point-of-care device offers additional diagnostic value in patient management following chest trauma. Further studies with more patients have to be performed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the device.

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Two studies aimed at understanding the time course of alienation from school and school factors that may influence alienation from school during early adolescence. In Study 1, 434 students from grade 5–8 participated (cross-sectional design). In Study 2, we followed 356 students from grade 6–7 (longitudinal design). The results confirm the prevalence of alienation for boys and low achievers, the gradual progression of alienation during adolescence, and the predictive value of instructional quality, positive teacher–student integration and positive student–student integration in determining academic alienation during early adolescence.

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BACKGROUND The treatment and outcomes of patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) continue to evolve. The International Prognostic Score (IPS) is used to predict the survival of patients with advanced-stage HL, but it has not been validated in patients with HIV infection. METHODS This was a multi-institutional, retrospective study of 229 patients with HIV-associated, advanced-stage, classical HL who received doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine (ABVD) plus combination antiretroviral therapy. Their clinical characteristics were presented descriptively, and multivariate analyses were performed to identify the factors that were predictive of response and prognostic of progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). RESULTS The overall and complete response rates to ABVD in patients with HIV-associated HL were 91% and 83%, respectively. After a median follow-up of 5 years, the 5-year PFS and OS rates were 69% and 78%, respectively. In multivariate analyses, there was a trend toward an IPS score >3 as an adverse factor for PFS (hazard ratio [HR], 1.49; P=.15) and OS (HR, 1.84; P=.06). A cluster of differentiation 4 (CD4)-positive (T-helper) cell count <200 cells/μL was associated independently with both PFS (HR, 2.60; P=.002) and OS (HR, 2.04; P=.04). The CD4-positive cell count was associated with an increased incidence of death from other causes (HR, 2.64; P=.04) but not with death from HL-related causes (HR, 1.55; P=.32). CONCLUSIONS The current results indicate excellent response and survival rates in patients with HIV-associated, advanced-stage, classical HL who receive ABVD and combination antiretroviral therapy as well as the prognostic value of the CD4-positive cell count at the time of lymphoma diagnosis for PFS and OS. Cancer 2014. © 2014 American Cancer Society.

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Purpose – The authors sought to explain why and how protean career attitude might influence self‐initiated expatriates' (SIEs) experiences positively. A mediation model of cultural adjustment was proposed and empirically evaluated. Design/methodology/approach – Data from 132 SIEs in Germany containing measures of protean career attitude, cultural adjustment, career satisfaction, life satisfaction, and intention to stay in the host country were analysed using path analysis with a bootstrap method. Findings – Empirical results provide support for the authors' proposed model: the positive relations between protean career attitude and the three expatriation outcomes (career satisfaction, life satisfaction and intention to stay in the host country) were mediated by positive cross‐cultural adjustment of SIEs. Research limitations/implications – All data were cross‐sectional from a single source. The sample size was small and included a large portion of Chinese participants. The study should be replicated with samples in other destination countries, and longitudinal research is suggested. Practical implications – By fostering both a protean career attitude in skilled SIE employees and their cultural adjustment, corporations and receiving countries could be able to retain this international workforce better in times of talent shortage. Originality/value – This study contributes to the scarce research on the conceptual relatedness of protean career attitude and SIEs, as well as to acknowledging the cultural diversity of the SIE population.

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RATIONALE Not all patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) have a high risk of an adverse short-term outcome. OBJECTIVES This prospective cohort study aimed to develop a multimarker prognostic model that accurately classifies normotensive patients with PE into low and high categories of risk of adverse medical outcomes. METHODS The study enrolled 848 outpatients from the PROTECT (PROgnosTic valuE of Computed Tomography) study (derivation cohort) and 529 patients from the Prognostic Factors for Pulmonary Embolism (PREP) study (validation cohort). Investigators assessed study participants for a 30-day complicated course, defined as death from any cause, hemodynamic collapse, and/or adjudicated recurrent PE. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS A complicated course occurred in 63 (7.4%) of the 848 normotensive patients with acute symptomatic PE in the derivation cohort and in 24 patients (4.5%) in the validation cohort. The final model included the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index, cardiac troponin I, brain natriuretic peptide, and lower limb ultrasound testing. The model performed similarly in the derivation (c-index of 0.75) and validation (c-index of 0.85) cohorts. The combination of the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index and brain natriuretic peptide testing showed a negative predictive value for a complicated course of 99.1 and 100% in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The combination of all modalities had a positive predictive value for the prediction of a complicated course of 25.8% in the derivation cohort and 21.2% in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS For normotensive patients who have acute PE, we derived and validated a multimarker model that predicts all-cause mortality, hemodynamic collapse, and/or recurrent PE within the following 30 days.

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BACKGROUND/AIMS O(6)-methylguanine-methyltransferase (MGMT) is an important enzyme of DNA repair. MGMT promoter methylation is detectable in a subset of pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (pNEN). A subset of pNEN responds to the alkylating agent temozolomide (TMZ). We wanted to correlate MGMT promoter methylation with MGMT protein loss in pNEN, correlate the findings with clinico-pathological data and determine the role of MGMT to predict response to TMZ chemotherapy. METHODS We analysed a well-characterized collective of 141 resected pNEN with median follow-up of 83 months for MGMT protein expression and promoter methylation using methylation-specific PCR (MSP). A second collective of 10 metastasized, pretreated and progressive patients receiving TMZ was used to examine the predictive role of MGMT by determining protein expression and promoter methylation using primer extension-based quantitative PCR. RESULTS In both collectives there was no correlation between MGMT protein expression and promoter methylation. Loss of MGMT protein was associated with an adverse outcome, this prognostic value, however, was not independent from grade and stage in multivariate analysis. Promoter hypermethylation was significantly associated with response to TMZ. CONCLUSION Loss of MGMT protein expression is associated with adverse outcome in a surgical series of pNET. MGMT promoter methylation could be a predictive marker for TMZ chemotherapy in pNEN, but further, favourably prospective studies will be needed to confirm this result and before this observation can influence clinical routine.

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BACKGROUND Rapid pulmonary vein (PV) activity has been shown to maintain paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF). We evaluated in persistent AF the cycle length (CL) gradient between PVs and the left atrium (LA) in an attempt to identify the subset of patients where PVs play an important role. METHODS AND RESULTS Ninety-seven consecutive patients undergoing first ablation for persistent AF were studied. For each PV, the CL of the fastest activation was assessed over 1 minute (PVfast) using Lasso recordings. The PV to LA CL gradient was quantified by the ratio of PVfast to LA appendage (LAA) AF CL. Stepwise ablation terminated AF in 73 patients (75%). In the AF termination group, the PVfast CL was much shorter than the LAA CL resulting in lower PVfast/LAA ratios compared with the nontermination group (71±10% versus 92±7%; P<0.001). Within the termination group, PVfast/LAA ratios were notably lower if AF terminated after PV isolation or limited adjunctive substrate ablation compared with patients who required moderate or extensive ablation (63±6% versus 75±8%; P<0.001). PVfast/LAA ratio <69% predicted AF termination after PV isolation or limited substrate ablation with 74% positive predictive value and 95% negative predictive value. After a mean follow-up of 29±17 months, freedom from arrhythmia recurrence off-antiarrhythmic drugs was achieved in most patients with PVfast/LAA ratios <69% as opposed to the remaining population (80% versus 43%; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS The PV to LA CL gradient may identify the subset of patients in whom persistent AF is likely to terminate after PV isolation or limited substrate ablation and better long-term outcomes are achieved.

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Alveolar echinococcosis (AE), caused by larva stage of Echinococcus multilocularis, is one of the lethal parasitic diseases of man and a major public health problem in many countries in the northern hemisphere. When the living conditions and habits in Turkey were considered in terms of relation with the life cycle of the parasite, it was suggested that AE has been much more common than reported mainly from the Eastern Anatolia region of Turkey. Since in vitro serologic diagnosis tests with high specificity for AE have not been used in our country, most of the cases with liver lesions were misdiagnosed by radiological investigations as malignancies. The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic value of the in-house ELISA methods developed by using three different antigens (EgHF, Em2, EmII/3-10) in the serological diagnosis of AE. The study samples included a total of 100 sera provided by Bern University Parasitology Institute where samples were obtained from patients with helminthiasis and all were confirmed by clinical, parasitological and/or histopathological means. Ten samples from each of the cases infected by E.multilocularis, E.granulosus, Taenia solium, Wuchereria bancrofti, Strongyloides stercolaris, Ascaris lumbricoides, Toxocara canis, Trichinella spiralis, Fasciola hepatica and Schistosoma haematobium were studied. In the study, EgHF (E.granulosus hydatid fluid) antigens were prepared in our laboratory from the liver cyst fluids of sheeps with cystic echinococcosis, however Em2 (E.multilocularis metacestode-purified laminated layer) and EmII/3-10 (E.multilocularis recombinant protoscolex tegument) antigens were provided by Bern University Parasitology Institute. Flat bottom ELISA plates were covered with EgHF, Em2 and EmII/3-10 antigens in the concentrations of 2.5 µg, 1 µg and 0.18 µg per well, respectively, and all sera were tested by EgHF-ELISA, Em2-ELISA and EmII/3-10-ELISA methods. For each tests, the samples which were reactive above the cut-off value (mean OD of negative controls+2 SD) were accepted as positive. The sensitivity of the ELISA tests performed with EgHF, Em2 and Em2II/3-10 antigens were estimated as 100%, 90% and 90%, respectively, whereas the specificity were 63%, 91% and 91%, respectively. When Em2-ELISA and EmII/3-10-ELISA tests were evaluated together, the specificity increased to 96%. Our data indicated that the highest sensitivity (100% with EgHF-ELISA) and specificity (96% with Em2-ELISA + EmII/3-10-ELISA) for the serodiagnosis of AE can be achieved by the combined use of the ELISA tests with three different antigens. It was concluded that the early and accurate diagnosis of AE in our country which is endemic for that disease, could be supported by the use of highly specific serological tests such as Em2-ELISA ve EmII/3-10-ELISA contributing radiological data.

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OBJECTIVE To systematically review evidence on genetic risk factors for carbamazepine (CBZ)-induced hypersensitivity reactions (HSRs) and provide practice recommendations addressing the key questions: (1) Should genetic testing for HLA-B*15:02 and HLA-A*31:01 be performed in patients with an indication for CBZ therapy to reduce the occurrence of CBZ-induced HSRs? (2) Are there subgroups of patients who may benefit more from genetic testing for HLA-B*15:02 or HLA-A*31:01 compared to others? (3) How should patients with an indication for CBZ therapy be managed based on their genetic test results? METHODS A systematic literature search was performed for HLA-B*15:02 and HLA-A*31:01 and their association with CBZ-induced HSRs. Evidence was critically appraised and clinical practice recommendations were developed based on expert group consensus. RESULTS Patients carrying HLA-B*15:02 are at strongly increased risk for CBZ-induced Stevens-Johnson syndrome/toxic epidermal necrolysis (SJS/TEN) in populations where HLA-B*15:02 is common, but not CBZ-induced hypersensitivity syndrome (HSS) or maculopapular exanthema (MPE). HLA-B*15:02-positive patients with CBZ-SJS/TEN have been reported from Asian countries only, including China, Thailand, Malaysia, and India. HLA-B*15:02 is rare among Caucasians or Japanese; no HLA-B*15:02-positive patients with CBZ-SJS/TEN have been reported so far in these groups. HLA-A*31:01-positive patients are at increased risk for CBZ-induced HSS and MPE, and possibly SJS/TEN and acute generalized exanthematous pustulosis (AGEP). This association has been shown in Caucasian, Japanese, Korean, Chinese, and patients of mixed origin; however, HLA-A*31:01 is common in most ethnic groups. Not all patients carrying either risk variant develop an HSR, resulting in a relatively low positive predictive value of the genetic tests. SIGNIFICANCE This review provides the latest update on genetic markers for CBZ HSRs, clinical practice recommendations as a basis for informed decision making regarding the use of HLA-B*15:02 and HLA-A*31:01 genetic testing in patients with an indication for CBZ therapy, and identifies knowledge gaps to guide future research. A PowerPoint slide summarizing this article is available for download in the Supporting Information section here.

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This longitudinal study of 268 Swiss adolescents, spanning across 8th grade, investigated the relation of intrinsic and extrinsic work values to positive career development in deciding, planning, and exploring. Results showed that girls reported more intrinsic and fewer extrinsic work values compared with boys. Students with an immigration background reported more extrinsic values than did students of Swiss nationality. When gender, nationality, and scholastic achievement were controlled, more general work value endorsement was a significant predictor of an above-average increase in career development over the course of the school year. Endorsement of more intrinsic but not extrinsic work values was related to positive career development.

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Objective: Current data show a favorable outcome after poor grade subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) in up to 50% of patients. This limits the use of the WFNS scale for drawing treatment decisions. We therefore analyzed how clinical signs of herniation might improve the existing WFNS grading. Therefore we compared the current WFNS grading and a modified WFNS grading with respect to outcome. Method: We performed a retrospective study including 182 poor grade SAH patients. Patients were graded according to the original WFNS scale and additionally into a modified classification the “WFNS herniation” (WFNSh grade IV: no herniation; grade V clinical signs of herniation). Outcome was compared between these two grading systems with respect to the dichotomized modified Rankin scale after 6 months. Results: The WFNS and WFNSh showed a positive predictive value (PPV) for poor outcome of 74.3% (OR 3.79, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.94, 7.54) and 85.7% (OR 8.27, 95% CI=3.78, 19.47), respectively. With respect to mortality the PPV was 68.3% (OR 3.9, 95% CI=2.01, 7.69) for the WFNS grade V and 77.9% (OR 6.22, 95% CI=3.07, 13.14) for the WFNSh grade V. Conclusions: Using positive clinical signs of herniation instead of “no response to pain stimuli” (motor Glasgow Coma Scale Score) can improve WFNS V grading. Using this modification, prediction of poor outcome or death improves.

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In this work we propose the adoption of a statistical framework used in the evaluation of forensic evidence as a tool for evaluating and presenting circumstantial "evidence" of a disease outbreak from syndromic surveillance. The basic idea is to exploit the predicted distributions of reported cases to calculate the ratio of the likelihood of observing n cases given an ongoing outbreak over the likelihood of observing n cases given no outbreak. The likelihood ratio defines the Value of Evidence (V). Using Bayes' rule, the prior odds for an ongoing outbreak are multiplied by V to obtain the posterior odds. This approach was applied to time series on the number of horses showing clinical respiratory symptoms or neurological symptoms. The separation between prior beliefs about the probability of an outbreak and the strength of evidence from syndromic surveillance offers a transparent reasoning process suitable for supporting decision makers. The value of evidence can be translated into a verbal statement, as often done in forensics or used for the production of risk maps. Furthermore, a Bayesian approach offers seamless integration of data from syndromic surveillance with results from predictive modeling and with information from other sources such as disease introduction risk assessments.