Determining the long-term changes in biodiversity and provisioning services along a transect from Central Europe to the Mediterranean

Climate, land use and fire are strong determinants of plant diversity, potentially resulting in local extinctions, including rare endemic and economically valuable species. While climate and land use are decisive for vegetation composition and thus the species pool, fire disturbance can lead to landscape fragmentation, affecting the provisioning of important ecosystem services such as timber and raw natural resources. We use multi-proxy palaeoecological data with high taxonomic and temporal resolution across an environmental gradient to assess the long-term impact of major climate shifts, land use and fire disturbance on past vegetation openness and plant diversity (evenness and richness). Evenness of taxa is inferred by calculating the probability of interspecific encounter (PIE) of pollen and spores and species richness by palynological richness (PRI). To account for evenness distortions of PRI, we developed a new palaeodiversity measure, which is evenness-detrended palynological richness (DE-PRI). Reconstructed species richness increases from north to south regardless of time, mirroring the biodiversity increase across the gradient from temperate deciduous to subtropical evergreen vegetation. Climatic changes after the end of the last ice age contributed to biodiversity dynamics, usually by promoting species richness and evenness in response to warming. The data reveal that the promotion of diverse open-land ecosystems increased when human disturbance became determinant, while forests became less diverse. Our results imply that the today’s biodiversity has been shaped by anthropogenic forcing over the millennia. Future management strategies aiming at a successful conservation of biodiversity should therefore consider the millennia-lasting role of anthropogenic fire and human activities.

Influence of deep sternal wound infection on long-term survival after cardiac surgery

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the influence of deep sternal wound infection on long-term survival following cardiac surgery. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In our institutional database we retrospectively evaluated medical records of 4732 adult patients who received open-heart surgery from January 1995 through December 2005. The predictive factors for DSWI were determined using logistic regression analysis. Then, each patient with deep sternal wound infection (DSWI) was matched with 2 controls without DSWI, according to the risk factors identified previously. After checking balance resulting from matching, short-term mortality was compared between groups using a paired test, and long-term survival was compared using Kaplan-Meier analysis and a Cox proportional hazard model. RESULTS: Overall, 4732 records were analyzed. The mean age of the investigated population was 69.3±12.8 years. DSWI occurred in 74 (1.56%) patients. Significant independent predictive factors for deep sternal infections were active smoking (OR 2.19, CI95 1.35-3.53, p=0.001), obesity (OR 1.96, CI95 1.20-3.21, p=0.007), and insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (OR 2.09, CI95 1.05-10.06, p=0.016). Mean follow-up in the matched set was 125 months, IQR 99-162. After matching, in-hospital mortality was higher in the DSWI group (8.1% vs. 2.7% p=0.03), but DSWI was not an independent predictor of long-term survival (adjusted HR 1.5, CI95 0.7-3.2, p=0.33). CONCLUSIONS: The results presented in this report clearly show that post-sternotomy deep wound infection does not influence long-term survival in an adult general cardio-surgical patient population.

Male reproductive pattern in a polygynous ungulate with a slow life-history: the role of age, social status and alternative mating tactics

According to life-history theory age-dependent investments into reproduction are thought to co-vary with survival and growth of animals. In polygynous species, in which size is an important determinant of reproductive success, male reproduction via alternative mating tactics at young age are consequently expected to be the less frequent in species with higher survival. We tested this hypothesis in male Alpine ibex (Capra ibex), a highly sexually dimorphic mountain ungulate whose males have been reported to exhibit extremely high adult survival rates. Using data from two offspring cohorts in a population in the Swiss Alps, the effects of age, dominance and mating tactic on the likelihood of paternity were inferred within a Bayesian framework. In accordance with our hypothesis, reproductive success in male Alpine ibex was heavily biased towards older, dominant males that monopolized access to receptive females by adopting the 'tending' tactic, while success among young, subordinate males via the sneaking tactic 'coursing' was in general low and rare. In addition, we detected a high reproductive skew in male Alpine ibex, suggesting a large opportunity for selection. Compared with other ungulates with higher mortality rates, reproduction among young male Alpine ibex was much lower and more sporadic. Consistent with that, further examinations on the species level indicated that in polygynous ungulates the significance of early reproduction appears to decrease with increasing survival. Overall, this study supports the theory that survival prospects of males modulate the investments into reproduction via alternative mating tactics early in life. In the case of male Alpine ibex, the results indicate that their life-history strategy targets for long life, slow and prolonged growth and late reproduction.

Periodontal and general health in long-term periodontal maintenance patients treated in a Norwegian private practice: a descriptive report from a compliant and partially compliant survivor population

BACKGROUND There is weak evidence to support the benefit of periodontal maintenance therapy in preventing tooth loss. In addition, the effects of long-term periodontal treatment on general health are unclear. METHODS Patients who were compliant and partially compliant (15 to 25 years' follow-up) in private practice were observed for oral and systemic health changes. RESULTS A total of 219 patients who were compliant (91 males and 128 females) were observed for 19.1 (range 15 to 25; SD ± 2.8) years. Age at reassessment was 64.6 (range: 39 to 84; SD ± 9.0) years. A total of 145 patients were stable (0 to 3 teeth lost), 54 were downhill (4 to 6 teeth lost), and 21 patients extreme downhill (>6 teeth lost); 16 patients developed hypertension, 13 developed type 2 diabetes, and 15 suffered myocardial infarcts (MIs). A minority developed other systemic diseases. Risk factors for MI included overweight (odds ratio [OR]: 9.04; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.9 to 27.8; P = 0.000), family history with cardiovascular disease (OR: 3.10; 95% CI: 1.07 to 8.94; P = 0.029), type 1 diabetes at baseline (P = 0.02), and developing type 2 diabetes (OR: 7.9; 95% CI: 2.09 to 29.65; P = 0.000). A total of 25 patients who were partially compliant (17 males and eight females) were observed for 19 years. This group had a higher proportion of downhill and extreme downhill cases and MI. CONCLUSIONS Patients who left the maintenance program in a periodontal specialist practice in Norway had a higher rate of tooth loss than patients who were compliant. Patients who were compliant with maintenance in a specialist practice in Norway have a similar risk of developing type 2 diabetes as the general population. A rate of 0.0037 MIs per patient per year was recorded for this group. Due to the lack of external data, it is difficult to assess how this compares with patients who have periodontal disease and are untreated.

Long-term clinical, microbiological, and radiographic outcomes of Brånemark™ implants installed in augmented maxillary bone for fixed full-arch rehabilitation

PURPOSE The purpose of this study was to document the long-term outcome of Brånemark implants installed in augmented maxillary bone and to identify parameters that are associated with peri-implant bone level. MATERIAL AND METHODS Patients of a periodontal practice who had been referred to a maxillofacial surgeon for iliac crest bone grafting in the atrophic maxilla were retrospectively recruited. Five months following grafting, they received 7-8 turned Brånemark implants. Following submerged healing of another 5 months, implants were uncovered and restorative procedures for fixed rehabilitation were initiated 2-3 months thereafter. The primary outcome variable was bone level defined as the distance from the implant-abutment interface to the first visible bone-to-implant contact. Secondary outcome variables included plaque index, bleeding index, probing depth, and levels of 40 species in subgingival plaque samples as identified by means of checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization. RESULTS Nine out of 16 patients (eight females, one male; mean age 59) with 71 implants agreed to come in for evaluation after on average 9 years (SD 4; range 3-13) of function. One implant was deemed mobile at the time of inspection. Clinical conditions were acceptable with 11% of the implants showing pockets ≥ 5 mm. Periodontopathogens were encountered frequently and in high numbers. Clinical parameters and bacterial levels were highly patient dependent. The mean bone level was 2.30 mm (SD 1.53; range 0.00-6.95), with 23% of the implants demonstrating advanced resorption (bone level > 3 mm). Regression analysis showed a significant association of the patient (p < .001) and plaque index (p = .007) with bone level. CONCLUSIONS The long-term outcome of Brånemark implants installed in iliac crest-augmented maxillary bone is acceptable; however, advanced peri-implant bone loss is rather common and indicative of graft resorption. This phenomenon is patient dependent and seems also associated with oral hygiene.

On trend estimation under monotone Gaussian subordination with long-memory: application to fossil pollen series

Fossil pollen data from stratigraphic cores are irregularly spaced in time due to non-linear age-depth relations. Moreover, their marginal distributions may vary over time. We address these features in a nonparametric regression model with errors that are monotone transformations of a latent continuous-time Gaussian process Z(T). Although Z(T) is unobserved, due to monotonicity, under suitable regularity conditions, it can be recovered facilitating further computations such as estimation of the long-memory parameter and the Hermite coefficients. The estimation of Z(T) itself involves estimation of the marginal distribution function of the regression errors. These issues are considered in proposing a plug-in algorithm for optimal bandwidth selection and construction of confidence bands for the trend function. Some high-resolution time series of pollen records from Lago di Origlio in Switzerland, which go back ca. 20,000 years are used to illustrate the methods.

Acute coronary syndrome in patients younger than 30 years--aetiologies, baseline characteristics and long-term clinical outcome

BACKGROUND Coronary atherosclerosis begins early in life, but acute coronary syndromes in adults aged <30 years are exceptional. We aimed to investigate the rate of occurrence, clinical and angiographic characteristics, and long-term clinical outcome of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in young patients who were referred to two Swiss hospitals. METHODS From 1994 to 2010, data on all patients with ACS aged <30 years were retrospectively retrieved from our database and the patients were contacted by phone or physician's visit. Baseline, lesion and procedural characteristics, and clinical outcome were compared between patients in whom an underlying atypical aetiology was found (non-ATS group; ATS: atherosclerosis) and patients in whom no such aetiology was detected (ATS group). The clinical endpoint was freedom from any major adverse cardiac event (MACE) during follow-up. RESULTS A total of 27 young patients with ACS aged <30 years were admitted during the study period. They accounted for 0.05% of all coronary angiograms performed. Mean patient age was 26.8 ± 3.5 years and 22 patients (81%) were men. Current smoking (81%) and dyslipidaemia (59%) were the most frequent risk factors. Typical chest pain (n = 23; 85%) and ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI; n = 18 [67%]) were most often found. The ATS group consisted of 17 patients (63%) and the non-ATS group of 10 patients (37%). Hereditary thrombophilia was the most frequently encountered atypical aetiology (n = 4; 15%). At 5 years, mortality and MACE rate were 7% and 19%, respectively. CONCLUSION ACS in young patients is an uncommon condition with a variety of possible aetiologies and distinct risk factors. In-hospital and 5-year clinical outcome is satisfactory.

Long-term outcomes of patients receiving zotarolimus-eluting stents in ST elevation myocardial infarction, non-ST elevation acute coronary syndrome, and stable angina: data from the Resolute program

BACKGROUND Outcome data are limited in patients with ST-segment elevation acute myocardial infarction (STEMI) or other acute coronary syndromes (ACSs) who receive a drug-eluting stent (DES). Data suggest that first generation DES is associated with an increased risk of stent thrombosis when used in STEMI. Whether this observation persists with newer generation DES is unknown. The study objective was to analyze the two-year safety and effectiveness of Resolute™ zotarolimus-eluting stents (R-ZESs) implanted for STEMI, ACS without ST segment elevation (non-STEACS), and stable angina (SA). METHODS Data from the Resolute program (Resolute All Comers and Resolute International) were pooled and patients with R-ZES implantation were categorized by indication: STEMI (n=335), non-STEACS (n=1416), and SA (n=1260). RESULTS Mean age was 59.8±11.3 years (STEMI), 63.8±11.6 (non-STEACS), and 64.9±10.1 (SA). Fewer STEMI patients had diabetes (19.1% vs. 28.5% vs. 29.2%; P<0.001), prior MI (11.3% vs. 27.2% vs. 29.4%; P<0.001), or previous revascularization (11.3% vs. 27.9% vs. 37.6%; P<0.001). Two-year definite/probable stent thrombosis occurred in 2.4% (STEMI), 1.2% (non-STEACS) and 1.1% (SA) of patients with late/very late stent thrombosis (days 31-720) rates of 0.6% (STEMI and non-STEACS) and 0.4% (SA) (P=NS). The two-year mortality rate was 2.1% (STEMI), 4.8% (non-STEACS) and 3.7% (SA) (P=NS). Death or target vessel re-infarction occurred in 3.9% (STEMI), 8.7% (non-STEACS) and 7.3% (SA) (P=0.012). CONCLUSION R-ZES in STEMI and in other clinical presentations is effective and safe. Long term outcomes are favorable with an extremely rare incidence of late and very late stent thrombosis following R-ZES implantation across indications.

The RYR2-encoded ryanodine receptor/calcium release channel in patients diagnosed previously with either catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia or genotype negative, exercise-induced long QT syndrome: a comprehensive open reading frame mutational analysis.

OBJECTIVES This study was undertaken to determine the spectrum and prevalence of mutations in the RYR2-encoded cardiac ryanodine receptor in cases with exertional syncope and normal corrected QT interval (QTc). BACKGROUND Mutations in RYR2 cause type 1 catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (CPVT1), a cardiac channelopathy with increased propensity for lethal ventricular dysrhythmias. Most RYR2 mutational analyses target 3 canonical domains encoded by <40% of the translated exons. The extent of CPVT1-associated mutations localizing outside of these domains remains unknown as RYR2 has not been examined comprehensively in most patient cohorts. METHODS Mutational analysis of all RYR2 exons was performed using polymerase chain reaction, high-performance liquid chromatography, and deoxyribonucleic acid sequencing on 155 unrelated patients (49% females, 96% Caucasian, age at diagnosis 20 +/- 15 years, mean QTc 428 +/- 29 ms), with either clinical diagnosis of CPVT (n = 110) or an initial diagnosis of exercise-induced long QT syndrome but with QTc <480 ms and a subsequent negative long QT syndrome genetic test (n = 45). RESULTS Sixty-three (34 novel) possible CPVT1-associated mutations, absent in 400 reference alleles, were detected in 73 unrelated patients (47%). Thirteen new mutation-containing exons were identified. Two-thirds of the CPVT1-positive patients had mutations that localized to 1 of 16 exons. CONCLUSIONS Possible CPVT1 mutations in RYR2 were identified in nearly one-half of this cohort; 45 of the 105 translated exons are now known to host possible mutations. Considering that approximately 65% of CPVT1-positive cases would be discovered by selective analysis of 16 exons, a tiered targeting strategy for CPVT genetic testing should be considered.

Chronic NSAID use and long-term decline of renal function in a prospective rheumatoid arthritis cohort study

OBJECTIVES Non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) may cause kidney damage. This study assessed the impact of prolonged NSAID exposure on renal function in a large rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patient cohort. METHODS Renal function was prospectively followed between 1996 and 2007 in 4101 RA patients with multilevel mixed models for longitudinal data over a mean period of 3.2 years. Among the 2739 'NSAID users' were 1290 patients treated with cyclooxygenase type 2 selective NSAIDs, while 1362 subjects were 'NSAID naive'. Primary outcome was the estimated glomerular filtration rate according to the Cockroft-Gault formula (eGFRCG), and secondary the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease and Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula equations and serum creatinine concentrations. In sensitivity analyses, NSAID dosing effects were compared for patients with NSAID registration in ≤/>50%, ≤/>80% or ≤/>90% of assessments. FINDINGS In patients with baseline eGFRCG >30 mL/min, eGFRCG evolved without significant differences over time between 'NSAID users' (mean change in eGFRCG -0.87 mL/min/year, 95% CI -1.15 to -0.59) and 'NSAID naive' (-0.67 mL/min/year, 95% CI -1.26 to -0.09, p=0.63). In a multivariate Cox regression analysis adjusted for significant confounders age, sex, body mass index, arterial hypertension, heart disease and for other insignificant factors, NSAIDs were an independent predictor for accelerated renal function decline only in patients with advanced baseline renal impairment (eGFRCG <30 mL/min). Analyses with secondary outcomes and sensitivity analyses confirmed these results. CONCLUSIONS NSAIDs had no negative impact on renal function estimates but in patients with advanced renal impairment.

The long arm of time pressure at work: Cognitive failure and commuting near-accidents

This study tests whether cognitive failures mediate effects of work-related time pressure and time control on commuting accidents and near-accidents. Participants were 83 employees (56% female) who each commuted between their regular place of residence and place of work using vehicles. The Workplace Cognitive Failure Scale (WCFS) asked for the frequency of failure in memory function, failure in attention regulation, and failure in action execution. Time pressure and time control at work were assessed by the Instrument for Stress Oriented Task Analysis (ISTA). Commuting accidents in the last 12 months were reported by 10% of participants, and half of the sample reported commuting near-accidents in the last 4 weeks. Cognitive failure significantly mediated the influence of time pressure at work on near-accidents even when age, gender, neuroticism, conscientiousness, commuting duration, commuting distance, and time pressure during commuting were controlled for. Time control was negatively related to cognitive failure and neuroticism, but no association with commuting accidents or near-accidents was found. Time pressure at work is likely to increase cognitive load. Time pressure might, therefore, increase cognitive failures during work and also during commuting. Hence, time pressure at work can decrease commuting safety. The result suggests a reduction of time pressure at work should improve commuting safety.

Age affects the adjustment of cognitive control after a conflict: evidence from the bivalency effect

Age affects cognitive control. When facing a conflict, older adults are less able to activate goal-relevant information and inhibit irrelevant information. However, cognitive control also affects the events after a conflict. The purpose of this study was to determine whether age affects the adjustment of cognitive control following a conflict. To this end, we investigated the bivalency effect, that is, the performance slowing occurring after the conflict induced by bivalent stimuli (i.e., stimuli with features for two tasks). In two experiments, we tested young adults (aged 20-30) and older adults (aged 65-85) in a paradigm requiring alternations between three tasks, with bivalent stimuli occasionally occurring on one task. The young adults showed a slowing for all trials following bivalent stimuli. This indicates a widespread and long-lasting bivalency effect, replicating previous findings. In contrast, the older adults showed a more specific and shorter-lived slowing. Thus, age affects the adjustment of cognitive control following a conflict.

The long-term stability of self-esteem: Its time-dependent decay and nonzero asymptote

How stable are individual differences in self-esteem? We examined the time-dependent decay of rank-order stability of self-esteem and tested whether stability asymptotically approaches zero or a nonzero value across long test–retest intervals. Analyses were based on 6 assessments across a 29-year period of a sample of 3,180 individuals aged 14 to 102 years. The results indicated that, as test–retest intervals increased, stability exponentially decayed and asymptotically approached a nonzero value (estimated as .43). The exponential decay function explained a large proportion of variance in observed stability coefficients, provided a better fit than alternative functions, and held across gender and for all age groups from adolescence to old age. Moreover, structural equation modeling of the individual-level data suggested that a perfectly stable trait component underlies stability of self-esteem. The findings suggest that the stability of self-esteem is relatively large, even across very long periods, and that self-esteem is a trait-like characteristic.

A paleoclimate record with tephrochronological age control for the last glacial-interglacial cycle from Lake Ohrid, Albania and Macedonia

Abstract Lake Ohrid is probably of Pliocene age, and the oldest extant lake in Europe. In this study climatic and environmental changes during the last glacial-interglacial cycle are reconstructed using lithological, sedimentological, geochemical and physical proxy analysis of a 15-m-long sediment succession from Lake Ohrid. A chronological framework is derived from tephrochronology and radiocarbon dating, which yields a basal age of ca. 136 ka. The succession is not continuous, however, with a hiatus between ca. 97.6 and 81.7 ka. Sediment accumulation in course of the last climatic cycle is controlled by the complex interaction of a variety of climate-controlled parameters and their impact on catchment dynamics, limnology, and hydrology of the lake. Warm interglacial and cold glacial climate conditions can be clearly distinguished from organic matter, calcite, clastic detritus and lithostratigraphic data. During interglacial periods, short-term fluctuations are recorded by abrupt variations in organic matter and calcite content, indicating climatically-induced changes in lake productivity and hydrology. During glacial periods, high variability in the contents of coarse silt to fine sand sized clastic matter is probably a function of climatically-induced changes in catchment dynamics and wind activity. In some instances tephra layers provide potential stratigraphic markers for short-lived climate perturbations. Given their widespread distribution in sites across the region, tephra analysis has the potential to provide insight into variation in the impact of climate and environmental change across the Mediterranean.

OSL and TL dating of the Middle Stone Age sequence at Diepkloof Rock Shelter (South Africa): a clarification

Diepkloof Rock Shelter offers an exceptional opportunity to study the onset and evolution of both Still Bay (SB) and Howiesons Poort (HP) techno-complexes. However, previous age estimates based on luminescence dating of burnt quartzites (Tribolo et al., 2009) and of sediments (Jacobs et al., 2008) were not in agreement. Here, we present new luminescence ages for 17 rock samples (equivalent dose estimated with a SAR-ITL protocol instead of classical MAAD-TL) as well as for 5 sediment samples (equivalent dose estimated with SAR-single grain OSL protocol) and an update of the 22 previous age estimates for burnt lithics (modified calibration and beta dose estimates). While a good agreement between the rock and sediment ages is obtained, these estimates are still significantly older than those reported by Jacobs et al. (2008). After our own analyses of the sediment from Diepkloof, it is suspected that these authors did not correctly chose the parameters for the equivalent dose determination, leading to an underestimate of the equivalent doses, and thus of the ages. From bottom to top, the mean ages are 100 ± 10 ka for stratigraphic unit (SU) Noël and 107 ± 11 ka for SU Mark (uncharacterized Lower MSA), 100 ± 10 ka for SU Lynn-Leo (Pre-SB type Lynn), 109 ± 10 ka for SUs Kim-Larry (SB), 105 ± 10 ka for SUs Kerry-Kate and 109 ± 10 ka for SU Jess (Early HP), 89 ± 8 ka for SU Jude (MSA type Jack), 77 ± 8 ka for SU John, 85 ± 9 ka for SU Fox, 83 ± 8 ka for SU Fred and 65 ± 8 ka for SU OB5 (Intermediate HP), 52 ± 5 ka for SUs OB2-4 (Late HP). This chronology, together with the technological analyses, greatly modifies the current chrono-cultural model regarding the SB and the HP and has important archaeological implications. Indeed, SB and HP no longer appear as short-lived techno-complexes with synchronous appearances for each and restricted to Oxygen Isotopic Stage (OIS) 4 across South Africa, as suggested by Jacobs et al. (2008, 2012). Rather, the sequence of Diepkloof supports a long chronology model with an early appearance of both SB and HP in the first half of OIS 5 and a long duration of the HP into OIS 3. These new dates imply that different technological traditions coexisted during OIS 5 and 4 in southern Africa and that SB and HP can no longer be considered as horizon markers.