Unconventional Monetary Policy and the Great Recession: Estimating the Macroeconomic Effects of a Spread Compression at the Zero Lower Bound

We explore the macroeconomic effects of a compression in the long-term bond yield spread within the context of the Great Recession of 2007–09 via a time-varying parameter structural VAR model. We identify a “pure” spread shock defined as a shock that leaves the policy rate unchanged, which allows us to characterize the macroeconomic consequences of a decline in the yield spread induced by central banks’ asset purchases within an environment in which the policy rate is constrained by the effective zero lower bound. Two key findings stand out. First, compressions in the long-term yield spread exert a powerful effect on both output growth and inflation. Second, conditional on available estimates of the impact of the Federal Reserve’s and the Bank of England’s asset purchase programs on long-term yield spreads, our counterfactual simulations suggest that U.S. and U.K. unconventional monetary policy actions have averted significant risks both of deflation and of output collapses comparable to those that took place during the Great Depression.

ANOVA kernels and RKHS of zero mean functions for model-based sensitivity analysis

Given a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (H,〈.,.〉)(H,〈.,.〉) of real-valued functions and a suitable measure μμ over the source space D⊂RD⊂R, we decompose HH as the sum of a subspace of centered functions for μμ and its orthogonal in HH. This decomposition leads to a special case of ANOVA kernels, for which the functional ANOVA representation of the best predictor can be elegantly derived, either in an interpolation or regularization framework. The proposed kernels appear to be particularly convenient for analyzing the effect of each (group of) variable(s) and computing sensitivity indices without recursivity.

NLO thermal dilepton rate at non-zero momentum

The vector channel spectral function and the dilepton production rate from a QCD plasma at a temperature above a few hundred MeV are evaluated up to next-to-leading order (NLO) including their dependence on a non-zero momentum with respect to the heat bath. The invariant mass of the virtual photon is taken to be in the range K2 ~ (πT)2 ~ (1GeV)2, generalizing previous NLO results valid for K2 ≫ (πT)2. In the opposite regime 0 < K2 ≪ (πT)2 the loop expansion breaks down, but agrees nevertheless in order of magnitude with a previous result obtained through resummations. Ways to test the vector spectral function through comparisons with imaginary-time correlators measured on the lattice are discussed.

TH2 cytokines from malignant cells suppress TH1 responses and enforce a global TH2 bias in leukemic cutaneous T-cell lymphoma

PURPOSE In leukemic cutaneous T-cell lymphoma (L-CTCL), malignant T cells accumulate in the blood and give rise to widespread skin inflammation. Patients have intense pruritus, increased immunoglobulin E (IgE), and decreased T-helper (TH)-1 responses, and most die from infection. Depleting malignant T cells while preserving normal immunity is a clinical challenge. L-CTCL has been variably described as a malignancy of regulatory, TH2 and TH17 cells. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN We analyzed phenotype and cytokine production in malignant and benign L-CTCL T cells, characterized the effects of malignant T cells on healthy T cells, and studied the immunomodulatory effects of treatment modalities in patients with L-CTCL. RESULTS Twelve out of 12 patients with L-CTCL overproduced TH2 cytokines. Remaining benign T cells were also strongly TH2 biased, suggesting a global TH2 skewing of the T-cell repertoire. Culture of benign T cells away from the malignant clone reduced TH2 and enhanced TH1 responses, but separate culture had no effect on malignant T cells. Coculture of healthy T cells with L-CTCL T cells reduced IFNγ production and neutralizing antibodies to interleukin (IL)-4 and IL-13 restored TH1 responses. In patients, enhanced TH1 responses were observed following a variety of treatment modalities that reduced malignant T-cell burden. CONCLUSIONS A global TH2 bias exists in both benign and malignant T cells in L-CTCL and may underlie the infectious susceptibility of patients. TH2 cytokines from malignant cells strongly inhibited TH1 responses. Our results suggest that therapies that inhibit TH2 cytokine activity, by virtue of their ability to improve TH1 responses, may have the potential to enhance both anticancer and antipathogen responses.

A test of genetic association among male nuptial coloration, female mating preference, and male aggression bias within a polymorphic population of cichlid fish

Both inter- and intrasexual selection have been implicated in the origin and maintenance of species-rich taxa with diverse sexual traits. Simultaneous disruptive selection by female mate choice and male-male competition can, in theory, lead to speciation without geographical isolation if both act on the same male trait. Female mate choice can generate discontinuities in gene flow, while male-male competition can generate negative frequency-dependent selection stabilizing the male trait polymorphism. Speciation may be facilitated when mating preference and/or aggression bias are physically linked to the trait they operate on. We tested for genetic associations among female mating preference, male aggression bias and male coloration in the Lake Victoria cichlid Pundamilia. We crossed females from a phenotypically variable population with males from both extreme ends of the phenotype distribution in the same population (blue or red). Male offspring of a red sire were significantly redder than males of a blue sire, indicating that intra-population variation in male coloration is heritable. We tested mating preferences of female offspring and aggression biases of male offspring using binary choice tests. There was no evidence for associations at the family level between female mating preferences and coloration of sires, but dam identity had a significant effect on female mate preference. Sons of the red sire directed significantly more aggression to red than blue males, whereas sons of the blue sire did not show any bias. There was a positive correlation among individuals between male aggression bias and body coloration, possibly due to pleiotropy or physical linkage, which could facilitate the maintenance of color polymorphism.

Effects of study precision and risk of bias in networks of interventions: a network meta-epidemiological study

BACKGROUND Empirical research has illustrated an association between study size and relative treatment effects, but conclusions have been inconsistent about the association of study size with the risk of bias items. Small studies give generally imprecisely estimated treatment effects, and study variance can serve as a surrogate for study size. METHODS We conducted a network meta-epidemiological study analyzing 32 networks including 613 randomized controlled trials, and used Bayesian network meta-analysis and meta-regression models to evaluate the impact of trial characteristics and study variance on the results of network meta-analysis. We examined changes in relative effects and between-studies variation in network meta-regression models as a function of the variance of the observed effect size and indicators for the adequacy of each risk of bias item. Adjustment was performed both within and across networks, allowing for between-networks variability. RESULTS Imprecise studies with large variances tended to exaggerate the effects of the active or new intervention in the majority of networks, with a ratio of odds ratios of 1.83 (95% CI: 1.09,3.32). Inappropriate or unclear conduct of random sequence generation and allocation concealment, as well as lack of blinding of patients and outcome assessors, did not materially impact on the summary results. Imprecise studies also appeared to be more prone to inadequate conduct. CONCLUSIONS Compared to more precise studies, studies with large variance may give substantially different answers that alter the results of network meta-analyses for dichotomous outcomes.

A view through gloomy glasses: accuracy and bias in relationships of narcissists

Narcissists’ perception of others is marked by a negative bias in the service of their own self-enhancement. The aim of this study was to determine whether narcissists’ negative bias extends to the perception of romantic partners too. In addition, we explored whether partners of narcissists succumb to specific perception biases as well. During 14 days, 86 couples completed measures of support given to and received from their partners. The results indicated that both male and female narcissists were more accurate in detecting negative support (e.g., blaming the partner for his or her problems) received from their partners, while female narcissists only were less accurate in perceiving altruistic support motives (e.g., truly enjoying to help the partner) of their male partner. Moreover, narcissists as well as their partners displayed a negative bias by underestimating the amount of altruistic support motives reported by each of them. On the other hand, partners of narcissists were positively biased as well and underestimated the negative support given by the narcissists. Results are discussed in relation to the self-regulatory goals of narcissists and of their partners and with respect to the possible impact of their accuracy and biases on the couple wellbeing.

Bias associated with detrital zircon geochronology and thermochronometry

Detrital studies that utilize zircon U–Pb geochronology and fission-track (FT) thermochronometry are subject to a range of potential sources of bias that should be properly evaluated and minimized. Some of them are common to any single-grain mineral analysis (e.g., variable bedrock mineral fertility, hydraulic sorting during transport, selective grain loss during sample processing), whereas others are intrinsic to zircon, and are related to radiation damage and age discordance. In this article, we quantify the impact of intrinsic bias on detrital studies thanks to the analysis of modern detritus shed from the European Alps, and illustrate the general implications on geological interpretations. We show that detrital zircon U–Pb age distributions based on statistically robust datasets are highly reproducible and representative of the parent bedrock ages in the catchment. Arbitrary or selective removal of discordant grain ages can be minimized by using the Kolmogorov–Smirnov test to identify an appropriate cutoff level. Loss of metamict (α-damaged) zircon has a minor impact on data representativeness, and is mainly controlled by regional metamorphism rather than by mechanical abrasion during river transport. Zircon FT grain-age distributions were found to have poor reproducibility, although age spectra are consistent with bedrock data. However, unlike the U–Pb datasets, U-rich zircon grains (> 1000 ppm) are systematically missed, and undatable grains may exceed 50%. We identify two major sources of distribution bias specific to zircon FT datasets: (i) sediment sources dominated by U-rich zircon grains are markedly underrepresented in the detrital record, because such grains often have uncountable high densities of fission tracks (“U concentration bias”); (ii) sediment sources that shed zircon grains with high levels of α-damage are underrepresented, because these grains are lost during chemical etching for FT revelation (“etching bias”). In the case of multimethod dating on the same grains (e.g., FT and U–Pb double dating), bias affecting detrital zircon FT dating propagates to the entire dataset. These effects may not impact on exhumation-rate studies that utilize the youngest grain ages (i.e., lag-time approach). However, they represent a limiting factor for conventional provenance studies, and generally preclude application of zircon FT dating to sediment budget calculations.