Intervals for the assessment of measurement agreement: Similarities, differences, and consequences of incorrect interpretations

Several intervals have been proposed to quantify the agreement of two methods intended to measure the same quantity in the situation where only one measurement per method and subject is available. The limits of agreement are probably the most well-known among these intervals, which are all based on the differences between the two measurement methods. The different meanings of the intervals are not always properly recognized in applications. However, at least for small-to-moderate sample sizes, the differences will be substantial. This is illustrated both using the width of the intervals and on probabilistic scales related to the definitions of the intervals. In particular, for small-to-moderate sample sizes, it is shown that limits of agreement and prediction intervals should not be used to make statements about the distribution of the differences between the two measurement methods or about a plausible range for all future differences. Care should therefore be taken to ensure the correct choice of the interval for the intended interpretation.

Recent trends in Inner Asian forest dynamics to temperature and precipitation indicate high sensitivity to climate change

Semi-arid ecosystems play an important role in regulating global climate with the fate of these ecosystems in the Anthropocene depending upon interactions among temperature, precipitation, and CO2. However, in cool-arid environments, precipitation is not the only limitation to forest productivity. Interactions between changes in precipitation and air temperature may enhance soil moisture stress while simultaneously extending growing season length, with unclear consequences for net carbon uptake. This study evaluates recent trends in productivity and phenology of Inner Asian forests (in Mongolia and Northern China) using satellite remote sensing, dendrochronology, and dynamic global vegetation model (DGVM) simulations to quantify the sensitivity of forest dynamics to decadal climate variability and trends. Trends in photosynthetically active radiation fraction (FPAR) between 1982 and 2010 show a greening of about 7% of the region in spring (March, April, May), and 3% of the area ‘browning’ during summertime (June, July, August). These satellite observations of FPAR are corroborated by trends in NPP simulated by the LPJ DGVM. Spring greening trends in FPAR are mainly explained by long-term trends in precipitation whereas summer browning trends are correlated with decreasing precipitation. Tree ring data from 25 sites confirm annual growth increments are mainly limited by summer precipitation (June, July, August) in Mongolia, and spring precipitation in northern China (March, April, May), with relatively weak prior-year lag effects. An ensemble of climate projections from the IPCC CMIP3 models indicates that warming temperatures (spring, summer) are expected to be associated with higher summer precipitation, which combined with CO2 causes large increases in NPP and possibly even greater forest cover in the Mongolian steppe. In the absence of a strong direct CO2 fertilization effect on plant growth (e.g., due to nutrient limitation), water stress or decreased carbon gain from higher autotrophic respiration results in decreased productivity and loss of forest cover. The fate of these semi-arid ecosystems thus appears to hinge upon the magnitude and subtleties of CO2 fertilization effects, for which experimental observations in arid systems are needed to test and refine vegetation models.

Global Change and the World's Mountain. Where are we coming from, and where are we going to?

The history of mountain research is most fascinating. Three names for 3 centuries may give an idea of the growing knowledge about the world's mountains: Horace Bénédict de Saussure, who climbed and studied the Mont Blanc in 1787; Alexander von Humboldt, ever investigating the environment during his attempt to ascend the Chimborazo in 1802; and Carl Troll, who founded the International Geographical Union's Commission on High-altitude Geoecology in 1968. Awareness of the growing impact of human activities on the environment led to scientific and political initiatives at the global level, beginning in the 1970s. The Perth conference in 2010 has offered an opportunity to both look back on these developments and explore the future of the world's mountains in a time of rapidly growing “global change” problems and processes.

Analyzing, Capturing and Taming Software Change

Software systems need to continuously change to remain useful. Change appears in several forms and needs to be accommodated at different levels. We propose ChangeBoxes as a mechanism to encapsulate, manage, analyze and exploit changes to software systems. Our thesis is that only by making change explicit and manipulable can we enable the software developer to manage software change more effectively than is currently possible. Furthermore we argue that we need new insights into assessing the impact of changes and we need to provide new tools and techniques to manage them. We report on the results of some initial prototyping efforts, and we outline a series of research activities that we have started to explore the potential of ChangeBoxes.

Durability and outcome of initial antiretroviral treatments received during 2000--2005 by patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

BACKGROUND: Little is known about time trends, predictors, and consequences of changes made to antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens early after patients initially start treatment. METHODS: We compared the incidence of, reasons for, and predictors of treatment change within 1 year after starting combination ART (cART), as well as virological and immunological outcomes at 1 year, among 1866 patients from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study who initiated cART during 2000--2001, 2002--2003, or 2004--2005. RESULTS: The durability of initial regimens did not improve over time (P = .15): 48.8% of 625 patients during 2000--2001, 43.8% of 607 during 2002--2003, and 44.3% of 634 during 2004--2005 changed cART within 1 year; reasons for change included intolerance (51.1% of all patients), patient wish (15.4%), physician decision (14.8%), and virological failure (7.1%). An increased probability of treatment change was associated with larger CD4+ cell counts, larger human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) RNA loads, and receipt of regimens that contained stavudine or indinavir/ritonavir, but a decreased probability was associated with receipt of regimens that contained tenofovir. Treatment discontinuation was associated with larger CD4+ cell counts, current use of injection drugs, and receipt of regimens that contained nevirapine. One-year outcomes improved between 2000--2001 and 2004--2005: 84.5% and 92.7% of patients, respectively, reached HIV-1 RNA loads of <50 copies/mL and achieved median increases in CD4+ cell counts of 157.5 and 197.5 cells/microL, respectively (P < .001 for all comparisons). CONCLUSIONS: Virological and immunological outcomes of initial treatments improved between 2000--2001 and 2004--2005, irrespective of uniformly high rates of early changes in treatment across the 3 study intervals.

How do subordinate and dominant species in semi-natural mountain grasslands relate to productivity and land-use change?

Changes in agricultural practices of semi-natural mountain grasslands are expected to modify plant community structure and shift dominance patterns. Using vegetation surveys of 11 sites in semi-natural grasslands of the Swiss Jura and Swiss and French Alps, we determined the relative contribution of dominant, subordinate and transient plant species in grazed and abandoned communities and observed their changes along a gradient of productivity and in response to abandonment of pasturing. The results confirm the humpbacked diversity–productivity relationship in semi-natural grassland, which is due to the increase of subordinate species number at intermediate productivity levels. Grazed communities, at the lower or higher end of the species diversity gradient, suffered higher species loss after grazing abandonment. Species loss after abandonment of pasturing was mainly due to a higher reduction in the number of subordinate species, as a consequence of the increasing proportion of dominant species. When plant biodiversity maintenance is the aim, our results have direct implications for the way grasslands should be managed. Indeed, while intensification and abandonment have been accelerated since few decades, our findings in this multi-site analysis confirm the importance of maintaining intermediate levels of pasturing to preserve biodiversity.

Evaluating watershed service availability under future management and climate change scenarios in the Pangani Basin

Watershed services are the benefits people obtain from the flow of water through a watershed. While demand for such services is increasing in most parts of the world, supply is getting more insecure due to human impacts on ecosystems such as climate or land use change. Population and water management authorities therefore require information on the potential availability of watershed services in the future and the trade-offs involved. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model watershed service availability for future management and climate change scenarios in the East African Pangani Basin. In order to quantify actual “benefits”, SWAT2005 was slightly modified, calibrated and configured at the required spatial and temporal resolution so that simulated water resources and processes could be characterized based on their valuation by stakeholders and their accessibility. The calibrated model was then used to evaluate three management and three climate scenarios. The results show that by the year 2025, not primarily the physical availability of water, but access to water resources and efficiency of use represent the greatest challenges. Water to cover basic human needs is available at least 95% of time but must be made accessible to the population through investments in distribution infrastructure. Concerning the trade-off between agricultural use and hydropower production, there is virtually no potential for an increase in hydropower even if it is given priority. Agriculture will necessarily expand spatially as a result of population growth, and can even benefit from higher irrigation water availability per area unit, given improved irrigation efficiency and enforced regulation to ensure equitable distribution of available water. The decline in services from natural terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. charcoal, food), due to the expansion of agriculture, increases the vulnerability of residents who depend on such services mostly in times of drought. The expected impacts of climate change may contribute to an increase or decrease in watershed service availability, but are only marginal and much lower than management impacts up to the year 2025.

Combining follow-up and change data is valid in meta-analyses of continuous outcomes: a meta-epidemiological study

OBJECTIVE To investigate whether it is valid to combine follow-up and change data when conducting meta-analyses of continuous outcomes. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING Meta-epidemiological study of randomized controlled trials in patients with osteoarthritis of the knee/hip, which assessed patient-reported pain. We calculated standardized mean differences (SMDs) based on follow-up and change data, and pooled within-trial differences in SMDs. We also derived pooled SMDs indicating the largest treatment effect within a trial (optimistic selection of SMDs) and derived pooled SMDs from the estimate indicating the smallest treatment effect within a trial (pessimistic selection of SMDs). RESULTS A total of 21 meta-analyses with 189 trials with 292 randomized comparisons in 41,256 patients were included. On average, SMDs were 0.04 standard deviation units more beneficial when follow-up values were used (difference in SMDs: -0.04; 95% confidence interval: -0.13, 0.06; P=0.44). In 13 meta-analyses (62%), there was a relevant difference in clinical and/or significance level between optimistic and pessimistic pooled SMDs. CONCLUSION On average, there is no relevant difference between follow-up and change data SMDs, and combining these estimates in meta-analysis is generally valid. Decision on which type of data to use when both follow-up and change data are available should be prespecified in the meta-analysis protocol.

Optimal compliance with emission constraints: dynamic characteristics and the choice of technique

The paper analyzes how to comply with an emission constraint, which restricts the use of an established energy technique, given the two options to save energy and to invest in two alternative energy techniques. These techniques differ in their deterioration rates and the investment lags of the corresponding capital stocks. Thus, the paper takes a medium-term perspective on climate change mitigation, where the time horizon is too short for technological change to occur, but long enough for capital stocks to accumulate and deteriorate. It is shown that, in general, only one of the two alternative techniques prevails in the stationary state, although, both techniques might be utilized during the transition phase. Hence, while in a static economy only one technique is efficient, this is not necessarily true in a dynamic economy.

The European Union, the World Trade Organization and Cultural Diversity

The chapter maps these trade versus culture developments in the WTO and the positions of the European Union (EU or the Union) and its member states, which were not always coherent. It also looks at the actual results of the trade versus culture contestation – that is, the rules on trade in goods and services in the WTO and how they reflect the need for more policy space in matters of cultural policy, which the EU so ardently pressed for. The chapter further analyses the evolution of both the international trade regulation and the discourse on cultural policy. This discourse has in fact undergone a major transformation in the last two decades, as it has moved from the ‘exception culturelle’ rhetoric, which dominated the Uruguay trade talks, towards a more positive but also more pro-active agenda under the slogan of cultural diversity. The EU has been a major driver of this transformation, which has succeeded in mobilising the international community and ultimately led to the adoption of the 2005 UNESCO Convention on the Protection and Promotion of the Diversity of Cultural Expressions. The chapter concludes by appraisal of the current state of the debate situating it into the broader picture of contemporary global governance. It asks how the EU could effectively pursue its cultural policy aspirations and endorse its cultural diversity agenda in a world of complexity and rapid technological change, in particular in view of the affordances of digital media.

Lateral prefrontal cortex and self-control in intertemporal choice.

Disruption of function of left, but not right, lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC) with low-frequency repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) increased choices of immediate rewards over larger delayed rewards. rTMS did not change choices involving only delayed rewards or valuation judgments of immediate and delayed rewards, providing causal evidence for a neural lateral-prefrontal cortex-based self-control mechanism in intertemporal choice.