Were last glacial climate events simultaneous between Greenland and western Europe?

During the last glacial period, several large abrupt climate fluctuations took place on the Greenland ice cap and elsewhere. Often these Dansgaard/Oeschger events are assumed to have been synchronous, and then used as tie-points to link chronologies between the proxy archives. However, if temporally separate events are lumped into one illusionary event, climatic interpretations of the tuned events will obviously be flawed. Here, we compare Dansgaard/Oeschger-type events in a well-dated record from south-eastern France with those in Greenland ice cores. Instead of assuming simultaneous climate events between both archives, we keep their age models independent. Even these well-dated archives possess large chronological uncertainties, that prevent us from inferring synchronous climate events at decadal to multi-centennial time scales. If possible, tuning of proxy archives should be avoided.

Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

Influence of Particle Size of Deproteinized Bovine Bone Mineral on New Bone Formation and Implant Stability after Simultaneous Sinus Floor Elevation: A Histomorphometric Study in Minipigs

BACKGROUND Deproteinized bovine bone mineral (DBBM) is one of the best-documented bone substitute materials for sinus floor elevation (SFE). PURPOSE DBBM is available in two particle sizes. Large particles are believed to facilitate improved neoangiogenesis compared with small ones. However, their impact on the rate of new bone formation, osteoconduction, and DBBM degradation has never been reported. In addition, the implant stability quotient (ISQ) has never been correlated to bone-to-implant contact (BIC) after SFE with simultaneous implant placement. MATERIALS AND METHODS Bilateral SFE with simultaneous implant placement was performed in 10 Göttingen minipigs. The two sides were randomized to receive large or small particle size DBBM. Two groups of 5 minipigs healed for 6 and 12 weeks, respectively. ISQ was recorded immediately after implant placement and at sacrifice. Qualitative histological differences were described and bone formation, DBBM degradation, BIC and bone-to-DBBM contact (osteoconduction) were quantified histomorphometrically. RESULTS DBBM particle size had no qualitative or quantitative impact on the amount of newly formed bone, DBBM degradation, or BIC for either of the healing periods (p > 0.05). Small-size DBBM showed higher osteoconduction after 6 weeks than large-size DBBM (p < 0.001). After 12 weeks this difference was compensated. There was no significant correlation between BIC and ISQ. CONCLUSION Small and large particle sizes were equally predictable when DBBM was used for SFE with simultaneous implant placement.

Piezoelectric alveolar ridge-splitting technique with simultaneous implant placement: a cohort study with 2-year radiographic results

PURPOSE Extended grafting procedures in atrophic ridges are invasive and time-consuming and increase cost and patient morbidity. Therefore, ridge-splitting techniques have been suggested to enlarge alveolar crests. The aim of this cohort study was to report techniques and radiographic outcomes of implants placed simultaneously with a piezoelectric alveolar ridge-splitting technique (RST). Peri-implant bone-level changes (ΔIBL) of implants placed with (study group, SG) or without RST (control group, CG) were compared. MATERIALS AND METHODS Two cohorts (seven patients in each) were matched regarding implant type, position, and number; superstructure type; age; and gender and received 17 implants each. Crestal implant bone level (IBL) was measured at surgery (T0), loading (T1), and 1 year (T2) and 2 years after loading (T3). For all implants, ΔIBL values were determined from radiographs. Differences in ΔIBL between SG and CG were analyzed statistically (Mann-Whitney U test). Bone width was assessed intraoperatively, and vertical bone mapping was performed at T0, T1, and T3. RESULTS After a mean observation period of 27.4 months after surgery, the implant survival rate was 100%. Mean ΔIBL was -1.68 ± 0.90 mm for SG and -1.04 ± 0.78 mm for CG (P = .022). Increased ΔIBL in SG versus CG occurred mainly until T2. Between T2 and T3, ΔIBL was limited (-0.11 ± 1.20 mm for SG and -0.05 ± 0.16 mm for CG; P = .546). Median bone width increased intraoperatively by 4.7 mm. CONCLUSIONS Within the limitations of this study, it can be suggested that RST is a well-functioning one-stage alternative to extended grafting procedures if the ridge shows adequate height. ΔIBL values indicated that implants with RST may fulfill accepted implant success criteria. However, during healing and the first year of loading, increased IBL alterations must be anticipated.

Statistical inference for the optimal approximating model

In the setting of high-dimensional linear models with Gaussian noise, we investigate the possibility of confidence statements connected to model selection. Although there exist numerous procedures for adaptive (point) estimation, the construction of adaptive confidence regions is severely limited (cf. Li in Ann Stat 17:1001–1008, 1989). The present paper sheds new light on this gap. We develop exact and adaptive confidence regions for the best approximating model in terms of risk. One of our constructions is based on a multiscale procedure and a particular coupling argument. Utilizing exponential inequalities for noncentral χ2-distributions, we show that the risk and quadratic loss of all models within our confidence region are uniformly bounded by the minimal risk times a factor close to one.

How do indirect measures of evaluation work? Evaluating the inference of prejudice in the Implicit Association Test

There has been significant interest in indirect measures of attitudes like the Implicit Association Test (IAT), presumably because of the possibility of uncovering implicit prejudices. The authors derived a set of qualitative predictions for people's performance in the IAT on the basis of random walk models. These were supported in 3 experiments comparing clearly positive or negative categories to nonwords. They also provided evidence that participants shift their response criterion when doing the IAT. Because of these criterion shifts, a response pattern in the IAT can have multiple causes. Thus, it is not possible to infer a single cause (such as prejudice) from IAT results. A surprising additional result was that nonwords were treated as though they were evaluated more negatively than obviously negative items like insects, suggesting that low familiarity items may generate the pattern of data previously interpreted as evidence for implicit prejudice.