Multi-Model Data Fusion to Improve an Early Warning System for Hypo-/Hyperglycemic Events

Correct predictions of future blood glucose levels in individuals with Type 1 Diabetes (T1D) can be used to provide early warning of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events and thus to improve the patient's safety. To increase prediction accuracy and efficiency, various approaches have been proposed which combine multiple predictors to produce superior results compared to single predictors. Three methods for model fusion are presented and comparatively assessed. Data from 23 T1D subjects under sensor-augmented pump (SAP) therapy were used in two adaptive data-driven models (an autoregressive model with output correction - cARX, and a recurrent neural network - RNN). Data fusion techniques based on i) Dempster-Shafer Evidential Theory (DST), ii) Genetic Algorithms (GA), and iii) Genetic Programming (GP) were used to merge the complimentary performances of the prediction models. The fused output is used in a warning algorithm to issue alarms of upcoming hypo-/hyperglycemic events. The fusion schemes showed improved performance with lower root mean square errors, lower time lags, and higher correlation. In the warning algorithm, median daily false alarms (DFA) of 0.25%, and 100% correct alarms (CA) were obtained for both event types. The detection times (DT) before occurrence of events were 13.0 and 12.1 min respectively for hypo-/hyperglycemic events. Compared to the cARX and RNN models, and a linear fusion of the two, the proposed fusion schemes represents a significant improvement.

Measurement of the TeV atmospheric muon charge ratio with the complete OPERA data set

The OPERA detector, designed to search for νμ → ντ oscillations in the CNGS beam, is located in the underground Gran Sasso laboratory, a privileged location to study TeV-scale cosmic rays. For the analysis here presented, the detector was used to measure the atmospheric muon charge ratio in the TeV region. OPERA collected chargeseparated cosmic ray data between 2008 and 2012. More than 3 million atmospheric muon events were detected and reconstructed, among which about 110000 multiple muon bundles. The charge ratio Rμ ≡ Nμ+/Nμ− was measured separately for single and for multiple muon events. The analysis exploited the inversion of the magnet polarity which was performed on purpose during the 2012 Run. The combination of the two data sets with opposite magnet polarities allowedminimizing systematic uncertainties and reaching an accurate determination of the muon charge ratio. Data were fitted to obtain relevant parameters on the composition of primary cosmic rays and the associated kaon production in the forward fragmentation region. In the surface energy range 1–20 TeV investigated by OPERA, Rμ is well described by a parametric model including only pion and kaon contributions to themuon flux, showing no significant contribution of the prompt component. The energy independence supports the validity of Feynman scaling in the fragmentation region up to 200 TeV/nucleon primary energy.

Grassland management intensification weakens the associations among the diversities of multiple plant and animal taxa

Land-use intensification is a key driver of biodiversity change. However, little is known about how it alters relationships between the diversities of different taxonomic groups, which are often correlated due to shared environmental drivers and trophic interactions. Using data from 150 grassland sites, we examined how land-use intensification (increased fertilization, higher livestock densities, and increased mowing frequency) altered correlations between the species richness of 15 plant, invertebrate, and vertebrate taxa. We found that 54% of pairwise correlations between taxonomic groups were significant and positive among all grasslands, while only one was negative. Higher land-use intensity substantially weakened these correlations (35% decrease in r and 43% fewer significant pairwise correlations at high intensity), a pattern which may emerge as a result of biodiversity declines and the breakdown of specialized relationships in these conditions. Nevertheless, some groups (Coleoptera, Heteroptera, Hymenoptera and Orthoptera) were consistently correlated with multidiversity, an aggregate measure of total biodiversity comprised of the standardized diversities of multiple taxa, at both high and low land-use intensity. The form of intensification was also important; increased fertilization and mowing frequency typically weakened plant–plant and plant–primary consumer correlations, whereas grazing intensification did not. This may reflect decreased habitat heterogeneity under mowing and fertilization and increased habitat heterogeneity under grazing. While these results urge caution in using certain taxonomic groups to monitor impacts of agricultural management on biodiversity, they also suggest that the diversities of some groups are reasonably robust indicators of total biodiversity across a range of conditions. Read More: http://www.esajournals.org/doi/10.1890/14-1307.1

Multiple programmed cell death pathways are involved in N-methyl-N-nitrosourea-induced photoreceptor degeneration.

PURPOSE: To identify programmed cell death (PCD) pathways involved in N-methyl-N-nitrosourea (MNU)-induced photoreceptor (PR) degeneration. METHODS: Adult C57BL/6 mice received a single MNU i.p. injection (60 mg/kg bodyweight), and were observed over a period of 7 days. Degeneration was visualized by H&E overview staining and electron microscopy. PR cell death was measured by quantifying TUNEL-positive cells in the outer nuclear layer (ONL). Activity measurements of key PCD enzymes (calpain, caspases) were used to identify the involved cell death pathways. Furthermore, the expression level of C/EBP homologous protein (CHOP) and glucose-regulated protein 78 (GRP78), key players in endoplasmic reticulum (ER) stress-induced apoptosis, was analyzed using quantitative real-time PCR. RESULTS: A decrease in ONL thickness and the appearance of apoptotic PR nuclei could be detected beginning 3 days post-injection (PI). This was accompanied by an increase of TUNEL-positive cells. Significant upregulation of activated caspases (3, 9, 12) was found at different time periods after MNU injection. Additionally, several other players of nonconventional PCD pathways were also upregulated. Consequently, calpain activity increased in the ONL, with a maximum on day 7 PI and an upregulation of CHOP and GRP78 expression beginning on day 1 PI was found. CONCLUSIONS: The data indicate that regular apoptosis is the major cause of MNU-induced PR cell death. However, alternative PCD pathways, including ER stress and calpain activation, are also involved. Knowledge about the mechanisms involved in this mouse model of PR degeneration could facilitate the design of putative combinatory therapeutic approaches.

Multiple metamorphic stages within an eclogite-facies terrane (Sesia Zone, Western Alps) revealed by Th-U-Pb petrochronology

Convergent plate margins typically experience a transition from subduction to collision dynamics as massive continental blocks enter the subduction channel. Studies of high-pressure rocks indicate that tectonic fragments are rapidly exhumed from eclogite facies to midcrustal levels, but the details of such dynamics are controversial.To understand the dynamics of a subduction channel we report the results of a petrochronological study from the central Sesia Zone, a key element of the internalWestern Alps.This comprises two polymetamorphic basement complexes (Eclogitic Micaschist Complex and Gneiss Minuti Complex) and a thin, dismembered cover sequence (Scalaro Unit) associated with pre-Alpine metagabbros and metasediments (Bonze Unit). Structurally controlled samples from three of these units (Eclogitic Micaschist Complex and Scalaro-Bonze Units) yield unequivocal petrological and geochronological evidence of two distinct high-pressure stages. Ages (U-Th-Pb) of growth zones in accessory allanite and zircon, combined with inclusion and textural relationships, can be tied to the multi-stage evolution of single samples.Two independent tectono-metamorphic ‘slices’ showing a coherent metamorphic evolution during a given time interval have been recognized: the Fondo slice (which includes Scalaro and Bonze rocks) and the Druer slice (belonging to the Eclogitic Micaschist Complex).The new data indicate separate stages of deformation at eclogite-facies conditions for each recognized independent kilometer-sized tectono-metamorphic slice, between ~85 and 60 Ma, with evidence of intermittent decompression (∆P~0.5 GPa) within only the Fondo slice. The evolution path of the Druer slice indicates a different P-T-time evolution with prolonged eclogite-facies metamorphism between ~85 and 75Ma. Our approach, combining structural, petrological and geochronological techniques, yields field-based constraints on the duration and rates of dynamics within a subduction channel.

Gas transport in firn: multiple-tracer characterisation and model intercomparison for NEEM, Northern Greenland

Air was sampled from the porous firn layer at the NEEM site in Northern Greenland. We use an ensemble of ten reference tracers of known atmospheric history to characterise the transport properties of the site. By analysing uncertainties in both data and the reference gas atmospheric histories, we can objectively assign weights to each of the gases used for the depth-diffusivity reconstruction. We define an objective root mean square criterion that is minimised in the model tuning procedure. Each tracer constrains the firn profile differently through its unique atmospheric history and free air diffusivity, making our multiple-tracer characterisation method a clear improvement over the commonly used single-tracer tuning. Six firn air transport models are tuned to the NEEM site; all models successfully reproduce the data within a 1σ Gaussian distribution. A comparison between two replicate boreholes drilled 64 m apart shows differences in measured mixing ratio profiles that exceed the experimental error. We find evidence that diffusivity does not vanish completely in the lock-in zone, as is commonly assumed. The ice age- gas age difference (1 age) at the firn-ice transition is calculated to be 182+3−9 yr. We further present the first intercomparison study of firn air models, where we introduce diagnostic scenarios designed to probe specific aspects of the model physics. Our results show that there are major differences in the way the models handle advective transport. Furthermore, diffusive fractionation of isotopes in the firn is poorly constrained by the models, which has consequences for attempts to reconstruct the isotopic composition of trace gases back in time using firn air and ice core records.

Multiple causes of the Younger Dryas cold period

The Younger Dryas cooling event disrupted the overall warming trend in the North Atlantic region during the last deglaciation. Climate change during the Younger Dryas was abrupt and thus provides insights into the sensitivity of the climate system to perturbations. The sudden Younger Dryas cooling has traditionally been attributed to a shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation by meltwater discharges. However, alternative explanations such as strong negative radiative forcing14 and a shift in atmospheric circulation have also been offered. Here we investigate the importance of these different forcings in coupled climate model experiments constrained by data assimilation. We find that the Younger Dryas climate signal as registered in proxy evidence is best simulated using a combination of processes: a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, moderate negative radiative forcing and an altered atmospheric circulation. We conclude that none of the individual mechanisms alone provide a plausible explanation for the Younger Dryas cold period. We suggest that the triggers for abrupt climate changes such as the Younger Dryas are more complex than suggested so far, and that studies on the response of the climate system to perturbations should account for this complexity.

Anticoagulant vs. antiplatelet therapy in patients with cryptogenic stroke and patent foramen ovale: an individual participant data meta-analysis.

AIMS The preferred antithrombotic strategy for secondary prevention in patients with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and patent foramen ovale (PFO) is unknown. We pooled multiple observational studies and used propensity score-based methods to estimate the comparative effectiveness of oral anticoagulation (OAC) compared with antiplatelet therapy (APT). METHODS AND RESULTS Individual participant data from 12 databases of medically treated patients with CS and PFO were analysed with Cox regression models, to estimate database-specific hazard ratios (HRs) comparing OAC with APT, for both the primary composite outcome [recurrent stroke, transient ischaemic attack (TIA), or death] and stroke alone. Propensity scores were applied via inverse probability of treatment weighting to control for confounding. We synthesized database-specific HRs using random-effects meta-analysis models. This analysis included 2385 (OAC = 804 and APT = 1581) patients with 227 composite endpoints (stroke/TIA/death). The difference between OAC and APT was not statistically significant for the primary composite outcome [adjusted HR = 0.76, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.52-1.12] or for the secondary outcome of stroke alone (adjusted HR = 0.75, 95% CI 0.44-1.27). Results were consistent in analyses applying alternative weighting schemes, with the exception that OAC had a statistically significant beneficial effect on the composite outcome in analyses standardized to the patient population who actually received APT (adjusted HR = 0.64, 95% CI 0.42-0.99). Subgroup analyses did not detect statistically significant heterogeneity of treatment effects across clinically important patient groups. CONCLUSION We did not find a statistically significant difference comparing OAC with APT; our results justify randomized trials comparing different antithrombotic approaches in these patients.

Multiple functions of gingival and mucoperiosteal fibroblasts in oral wound healing and repair

Fibroblasts are cells of mesenchymal origin. They are responsible for the production of most extracellular matrix in connective tissues and are essential for wound healing and repair. In recent years, it has become clear that fibroblasts from different tissues have various distinct traits. Moreover, wounds in the oral cavity heal under very special environmental conditions compared with skin wounds. Here, we reviewed the current literature on the various interconnected functions of gingival and mucoperiosteal fibroblasts during the repair of oral wounds. The MEDLINE database was searched with the following terms: (gingival OR mucoperiosteal) AND fibroblast AND (wound healing OR repair). The data gathered were used to compare oral fibroblasts with fibroblasts from other tissues in terms of their regulation and function during wound healing. Specifically, we sought answers to the following questions: (i) what is the role of oral fibroblasts in the inflammatory response in acute wounds; (ii) how do growth factors control the function of oral fibroblasts during wound healing; (iii) how do oral fibroblasts produce, remodel and interact with extracellular matrix in healing wounds; (iv) how do oral fibroblasts respond to mechanical stress; and (v) how does aging affect the fetal-like responses and functions of oral fibroblasts? The current state of research indicates that oral fibroblasts possess unique characteristics and tightly controlled specific functions in wound healing and repair. This information is essential for developing new strategies to control the intraoral wound-healing processes of the individual patient.

Usability and Acceptability of ASSESS MS: Assessment of Motor Dysfunction in Multiple Sclerosis Using Depth-Sensing Computer Vision

Background: Sensor-based recordings of human movements are becoming increasingly important for the assessment of motor symptoms in neurological disorders beyond rehabilitative purposes. ASSESS MS is a movement recording and analysis system being developed to automate the classification of motor dysfunction in patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) using depth-sensing computer vision. It aims to provide a more consistent and finer-grained measurement of motor dysfunction than currently possible. Objective: To test the usability and acceptability of ASSESS MS with health professionals and patients with MS. Methods: A prospective, mixed-methods study was carried out at 3 centers. After a 1-hour training session, a convenience sample of 12 health professionals (6 neurologists and 6 nurses) used ASSESS MS to capture recordings of standardized movements performed by 51 volunteer patients. Metrics for effectiveness, efficiency, and acceptability were defined and used to analyze data captured by ASSESS MS, video recordings of each examination, feedback questionnaires, and follow-up interviews. Results: All health professionals were able to complete recordings using ASSESS MS, achieving high levels of standardization on 3 of 4 metrics (movement performance, lateral positioning, and clear camera view but not distance positioning). Results were unaffected by patients’ level of physical or cognitive disability. ASSESS MS was perceived as easy to use by both patients and health professionals with high scores on the Likert-scale questions and positive interview commentary. ASSESS MS was highly acceptable to patients on all dimensions considered, including attitudes to future use, interaction (with health professionals), and overall perceptions of ASSESS MS. Health professionals also accepted ASSESS MS, but with greater ambivalence arising from the need to alter patient interaction styles. There was little variation in results across participating centers, and no differences between neurologists and nurses. Conclusions: In typical clinical settings, ASSESS MS is usable and acceptable to both patients and health professionals, generating data of a quality suitable for clinical analysis. An iterative design process appears to have been successful in accounting for factors that permit ASSESS MS to be used by a range of health professionals in new settings with minimal training. The study shows the potential of shifting ubiquitous sensing technologies from research into the clinic through a design approach that gives appropriate attention to the clinic environment.

Twenty years' experience with the Swiss data registry for assisted reproductive medicine: outcomes, key trends and recommendations for improved practice.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY The impact of assisted reproductive technology (ART) on Swiss demography was quantified. From 1993 to 2012 the number of deliveries, including multiples, generated by ART was compared with overall delivery numbers. Swiss experts in ART collaborated in a consensus to increase successful outcomes, to reduce the incidence of complications of ART and to validate recommendations through statistical review of available data. METHODS Data generated between 1993 and 2012 and published by the Federal Office of Statistics (BfS) were compared with the Swiss database on ART (FIVNAT-CH) as organised by the Swiss Society of Reproductive Medicine (SGRM). From these analyses a panel of Swiss experts in ART extracted recommendations to improve current practice, to prevent complications related to ART and to recommend changes in current Swiss legislation dealing with ART. RESULTS Since 1993 the age of women giving birth rose together with the number of women asking for ART. This demographic trend was reflected in a rise in the number of deliveries generated by ART (in 2012: 2.2%) and the proportion of multiple births (in 2012: 17.6%). The outcome of ART was most negatively influenced by the age of the treated patient. The number of retrieved oocytes decisively impacted the likelihood of delivery, the risk of multiple births and the incidence of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome. CONCLUSIONS Optimal ovarian stimulation should be designed for the retrieval of 10 to 15 oocytes per treatment. Swiss legislation should enable and stimulate a policy of elective single embryo transfer to avoid multiple births.

A fixed-links modeling approach to assess individual differences in the attentional blink: Analysis of behavioral and psychophysiological data

The attentional blink (AB) is a fundamental limitation of the ability to select relevant information from irrelevant information. It can be observed with the detection rate in an AB task as well as with the corresponding P300 amplitude of the event-related potential. In previous research, however, correlations between these two levels of observation were weak and rather inconsistent. A possible explanation of this finding might be that multiple processes underlie the AB and, thus, obscure a possible relationship between AB-related detection rate and the corresponding P300 amplitude. The present study investigated this assumption by applying a fixed-links modeling approach to represent behavioral individual differences in the AB as a latent variable. Concurrently, this approach enabled us to control for additional sources of variance in AB performance by deriving two additional latent variables. The correlation between the latent variable reflecting behavioral individual differences in AB magnitude and a corresponding latent variable derived from the P300 amplitude was high (r=.70). Furthermore, this correlation was considerably stronger than the correlations of other behavioral measures of the AB magnitude with their psychophysiological counterparts (all rs<.40). Our findings clearly indicate that the systematic disentangling of various sources of variance by utilizing the fixed-links modeling approach is a promising tool to investigate behavioral individual differences in the AB and possible psychophysiological correlates of these individual differences.

Patterns of landscape form in the upper Rhône basin, Central Swiss Alps, predominantly show lithologic controls despite multiple glaciations and variations in rock uplift rates

The development of topography depends mainly on the interplay between uplift and erosion. These processes are controlled by various factors including climate, glaciers, lithology, seismic activity and short-term variables, such as anthropogenic impact. Many studies in orogens all over the world have shown how these controlling variables may affect the landscape's topography. In particular, it has been hypothesized that lithology exerts a dominant control on erosion rates and landscape morphology. However, clear demonstrations of this influence are rare and difficult to disentangle from the overprint of other signals such as climate or tectonics. In this study we focus on the upper Rhône Basin situated in the Central Swiss Alps in order to explore the relation between topography, possible controlling variables and lithology in particular. The Rhône Basin has been affected by spatially variable uplift, high orographically driven rainfalls and multiple glaciations. Furthermore, lithology and erodibility vary substantially within the basin. Thanks to high-resolution geological, climatic and topographic data, the Rhône Basin is a suitable laboratory to explore these complexities. Elevation, relief, slope and hypsometric data as well as river profile information from digital elevation models are used to characterize the landscape's topography of around 50 tributary basins. Additionally, uplift over different timescales, glacial inheritance, precipitation patterns and erodibility of the underlying bedrock are quantified for each basin. Results show that the chosen topographic and controlling variables vary remarkably between different tributary basins. We investigate the link between observed topographic differences and the possible controlling variables through statistical analyses. Variations of elevation, slope and relief seem to be linked to differences in long-term uplift rate, whereas elevation distributions (hypsometry) and river profile shapes may be related to glacial imprint. This confirms that the landscape of the Rhône Basin has been highly preconditioned by (past) uplift and glaciation. Linear discriminant analyses (LDAs), however, suggest a stronger link between observed topographic variations and differences in erodibility. We therefore conclude that despite evident glacial and tectonic conditioning, a lithologic control is still preserved and measurable in the landscape of the Rhône tributary basins.

Impact of Software Settings on Multiple-Breath Washout Outcomes

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES Multiple-breath washout (MBW) is an attractive test to assess ventilation inhomogeneity, a marker of peripheral lung disease. Standardization of MBW is hampered as little data exists on possible measurement bias. We aimed to identify potential sources of measurement bias based on MBW software settings. METHODS We used unprocessed data from nitrogen (N2) MBW (Exhalyzer D, Eco Medics AG) applied in 30 children aged 5-18 years: 10 with CF, 10 formerly preterm, and 10 healthy controls. This setup calculates the tracer gas N2 mainly from measured O2 and CO2concentrations. The following software settings for MBW signal processing were changed by at least 5 units or >10% in both directions or completely switched off: (i) environmental conditions, (ii) apparatus dead space, (iii) O2 and CO2 signal correction, and (iv) signal alignment (delay time). Primary outcome was the change in lung clearance index (LCI) compared to LCI calculated with the settings as recommended. A change in LCI exceeding 10% was considered relevant. RESULTS Changes in both environmental and dead space settings resulted in uniform but modest LCI changes and exceeded >10% in only two measurements. Changes in signal alignment and O2 signal correction had the most relevant impact on LCI. Decrease of O2 delay time by 40 ms (7%) lead to a mean LCI increase of 12%, with >10% LCI change in 60% of the children. Increase of O2 delay time by 40 ms resulted in mean LCI decrease of 9% with LCI changing >10% in 43% of the children. CONCLUSIONS Accurate LCI results depend crucially on signal processing settings in MBW software. Especially correct signal delay times are possible sources of incorrect LCI measurements. Algorithms of signal processing and signal alignment should thus be optimized to avoid susceptibility of MBW measurements to this significant measurement bias.

A simulation study on the statistical monitoring of condemnation rates from slaughterhouses for syndromic surveillance: an evaluation based on Swiss data

Syndromic surveillance (SyS) systems currently exploit various sources of health-related data, most of which are collected for purposes other than surveillance (e.g. economic). Several European SyS systems use data collected during meat inspection for syndromic surveillance of animal health, as some diseases may be more easily detected post-mortem than at their point of origin or during the ante-mortem inspection upon arrival at the slaughterhouse. In this paper we use simulation to evaluate the performance of a quasi-Poisson regression (also known as an improved Farrington) algorithm for the detection of disease outbreaks during post-mortem inspection of slaughtered animals. When parameterizing the algorithm based on the retrospective analyses of 6 years of historic data, the probability of detection was satisfactory for large (range 83-445 cases) outbreaks but poor for small (range 20-177 cases) outbreaks. Varying the amount of historical data used to fit the algorithm can help increasing the probability of detection for small outbreaks. However, while the use of a 0·975 quantile generated a low false-positive rate, in most cases, more than 50% of outbreak cases had already occurred at the time of detection. High variance observed in the whole carcass condemnations time-series, and lack of flexibility in terms of the temporal distribution of simulated outbreaks resulting from low reporting frequency (monthly), constitute major challenges for early detection of outbreaks in the livestock population based on meat inspection data. Reporting frequency should be increased in the future to improve timeliness of the SyS system while increased sensitivity may be achieved by integrating meat inspection data into a multivariate system simultaneously evaluating multiple sources of data on livestock health.