Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH4) emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten modelling groups joined WETCHIMP to run eight global and two regional models with a common experimental protocol using the same climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. We reported the main conclusions from the intercomparison effort in a companion paper (Melton et al., 2013). Here we provide technical details for the six experiments, which included an equilibrium, a transient, and an optimized run plus three sensitivity experiments (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). The diversity of approaches used by the models is summarized through a series of conceptual figures, and is used to evaluate the wide range of wetland extent and CH4 fluxes predicted by the models in the equilibrium run. We discuss relationships among the various approaches and patterns in consistencies of these model predictions. Within this group of models, there are three broad classes of methods used to estimate wetland extent: prescribed based on wetland distribution maps, prognostic relationships between hydrological states based on satellite observations, and explicit hydrological mass balances. A larger variety of approaches was used to estimate the net CH4 fluxes from wetland systems. Even though modelling of wetland extent and CH4 emissions has progressed significantly over recent decades, large uncertainties still exist when estimating CH4 emissions: there is little consensus on model structure or complexity due to knowledge gaps, different aims of the models, and the range of temporal and spatial resolutions of the models.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.

Impact of an abrupt cooling event on interglacial methane emissions in northern peatlands

Rapid changes in atmospheric methane (CH4), temperature and precipitation are documented by Greenland ice core data both for glacial times (the so called Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events) as well as for a cooling event in the early Holocene (the 8.2 kyr event). The onsets of D-O warm events are paralleled by abrupt increases in CH4 by up to 250 ppb in a few decades. Vice versa, the 8.2 kyr event is accompanied by an intermittent decrease in CH4 of about 80 ppb over 150 yr. The abrupt CH4 changes are thought to mainly originate from source emission variations in tropical and boreal wet ecosystems, but complex process oriented bottom-up model estimates of the changes in these ecosystems during rapid climate changes are still missing. Here we present simulations of CH4 emissions from northern peatlands with the LPJ-Bern dynamic global vegetation model. The model represents CH4 production and oxidation in soils and transport by ebullition, through plant aerenchyma, and by diffusion. Parameters are tuned to represent site emission data as well as inversion-based estimates of northern wetland emissions. The model is forced with climate input data from freshwater hosing experiments using the NCAR CSM1.4 climate model to simulate an abrupt cooling event. A concentration reduction of ~10 ppb is simulated per degree K change of mean northern hemispheric surface temperature in peatlands. Peatland emissions are equally sensitive to both changes in temperature and in precipitation. If simulated changes are taken as an analogy to the 8.2 kyr event, boreal peatland emissions alone could only explain 23 of the 80 ppb decline in atmospheric methane concentration. This points to a significant contribution to source changes from low latitude and tropical wetlands to this event.

High-resolution glacial and deglacial record of atmospheric methane by continuous-flow and laser spectrometer analysis along the NEEM ice core

The Greenland NEEM (North Greenland Eemian Ice Drilling) operation in 2010 provided the first opportunity to combine trace-gas measurements by laser spectroscopic instruments and continuous-flow analysis along a freshly drilled ice core in a field-based setting. We present the resulting atmospheric methane (CH4) record covering the time period from 107.7 to 9.5 ka b2k (thousand years before 2000 AD). Companion discrete CH4 measurements are required to transfer the laser spectroscopic data from a relative to an absolute scale. However, even on a relative scale, the high-resolution CH4 data set significantly improves our knowledge of past atmospheric methane concentration changes. New significant sub-millennial-scale features appear during interstadials and stadials, generally associated with similar changes in water isotopic ratios of the ice, a proxy for local temperature. In addition to the midpoint of Dansgaard–Oeschger (D/O) CH4 transitions usually used for cross-dating, sharp definition of the start and end of these events brings precise depth markers (with ±20 cm uncertainty) for further cross-dating with other palaeo- or ice core records, e.g. speleothems. The method also provides an estimate of CH4 rates of change. The onsets of D/O events in the methane signal show a more rapid rate of change than their endings. The rate of CH4 increase associated with the onsets of D/O events progressively declines from 1.7 to 0.6 ppbv yr−1 in the course of marine isotope stage 3. The largest observed rate of increase takes place at the onset of D/O event #21 and reaches 2.5 ppbv yr−1.

Methane emissions from floodplains in the Amazon Basin: challenges in developing a process-based model for global applications

Tropical wetlands are estimated to represent about 50% of the natural wetland methane (CH4) emissions and explain a large fraction of the observed CH4 variability on timescales ranging from glacial–interglacial cycles to the currently observed year-to-year variability. Despite their importance, however, tropical wetlands are poorly represented in global models aiming to predict global CH4 emissions. This publication documents a first step in the development of a process-based model of CH4 emissions from tropical floodplains for global applications. For this purpose, the LPX-Bern Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPX hereafter) was slightly modified to represent floodplain hydrology, vegetation and associated CH4 emissions. The extent of tropical floodplains was prescribed using output from the spatially explicit hydrology model PCR-GLOBWB. We introduced new plant functional types (PFTs) that explicitly represent floodplain vegetation. The PFT parameterizations were evaluated against available remote-sensing data sets (GLC2000 land cover and MODIS Net Primary Productivity). Simulated CH4 flux densities were evaluated against field observations and regional flux inventories. Simulated CH4 emissions at Amazon Basin scale were compared to model simulations performed in the WETCHIMP intercomparison project. We found that LPX reproduces the average magnitude of observed net CH4 flux densities for the Amazon Basin. However, the model does not reproduce the variability between sites or between years within a site. Unfortunately, site information is too limited to attest or disprove some model features. At the Amazon Basin scale, our results underline the large uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions. Sensitivity analyses gave insights into the main drivers of floodplain CH4 emission and their associated uncertainties. In particular, uncertainties in floodplain extent (i.e., difference between GLC2000 and PCR-GLOBWB output) modulate the simulated emissions by a factor of about 2. Our best estimates, using PCR-GLOBWB in combination with GLC2000, lead to simulated Amazon-integrated emissions of 44.4 ± 4.8 Tg yr−1. Additionally, the LPX emissions are highly sensitive to vegetation distribution. Two simulations with the same mean PFT cover, but different spatial distributions of grasslands within the basin, modulated emissions by about 20%. Correcting the LPX-simulated NPP using MODIS reduces the Amazon emissions by 11.3%. Finally, due to an intrinsic limitation of LPX to account for seasonality in floodplain extent, the model failed to reproduce the full dynamics in CH4 emissions but we proposed solutions to this issue. The interannual variability (IAV) of the emissions increases by 90% if the IAV in floodplain extent is accounted for, but still remains lower than in most of the WETCHIMP models. While our model includes more mechanisms specific to tropical floodplains, we were unable to reduce the uncertainty in the magnitude of wetland CH4 emissions of the Amazon Basin. Our results helped identify and prioritize directions towards more accurate estimates of tropical CH4 emissions, and they stress the need for more research to constrain floodplain CH4 emissions and their temporal variability, even before including other fundamental mechanisms such as floating macrophytes or lateral water fluxes.

Can the carbon isotopic composition of methane be reconstructed from multi-site firn air measurements?

Methane is a strong greenhouse gas and large uncertainties exist concerning the future evolution of its atmospheric abundance. Analyzing methane atmospheric mixing and stable isotope ratios in air trapped in polar ice sheets helps in reconstructing the evolution of its sources and sinks in the past. This is important to improve predictions of atmospheric CH4 mixing ratios in the future under the influence of a changing climate. The aim of this study is to assess whether past atmospheric δ13C(CH4) variations can be reliably reconstructed from firn air measurements. Isotope reconstructions obtained with a state of the art firn model from different individual sites show unexpectedly large discrepancies and are mutually inconsistent. We show that small changes in the diffusivity profiles at individual sites lead to strong differences in the firn fractionation, which can explain a large part of these discrepancies. Using slightly modified diffusivities for some sites, and neglecting samples for which the firn fractionation signals are strongest, a combined multi-site inversion can be performed, which returns an isotope reconstruction that is consistent with firn data. However, the isotope trends are lower than what has been concluded from Southern Hemisphere (SH) archived air samples and high-accumulation ice core data. We conclude that with the current datasets and understanding of firn air transport, a high precision reconstruction of δ13C of CH4 from firn air samples is not possible, because reconstructed atmospheric trends over the last 50 yr of 0.3–1.5 ‰ are of the same magnitude as inherent uncertainties in the method, which are the firn fractionation correction (up to ~2 ‰ at individual sites), the Kr isobaric interference (up to ~0.8 ‰, system dependent), inter-laboratory calibration offsets (~0.2 ‰) and uncertainties in past CH4 levels (~0.5 ‰).

The role of tree size in the leafing phenology of a seasonally dry tropical forest in Belize, Central America

Leafing phenology of two dry-forest sites on soils of different depth (S = shallow, D = deep) at Shipstern Reserve, Belize, were compared at the start of the rainy season (April-June 2000). Trees greater than or equal to 2.5 cm dbh were recorded weekly for 8 wk in three 0.04-ha plots per site. Ten species were analysed individually for their phenological patterns, of which the three most common were Bursera simaruba, Metopium brownei and Jatropha gaumeri. Trees were divided into those in the canopy (> 10 cm dbh) and the subcanopy (less than or equal to 10 cm dbh). Site S had larger trees on average than site D. The proportion of trees flushing leaves at any one time was generally higher in site S than in site D, for both canopy and subcanopy trees. Leaf flush started 2 wk earlier in site S than site D for subcanopy trees, but only 0.5 wk earlier for the canopy trees. Leaf flush duration was 1.5 wk longer in site S than site D. Large trees in the subcanopy flushed leaves earlier than small ones at both sites but in the canopy just at site D. Large trees flushed leaves earlier than small ones in three species and small trees flushed leaves more rapidly in two species. Bursera and Jatropha followed the general trends but Metopium, with larger trees in site D than site S, showed the converse with onset of flushing I wk earlier in site D than site S. Differences in response of the canopy and subcanopy trees on each site can be accounted for by the predominance of spring-flushing or stem-succulent species in site S and a tendency for evergreen species to occur in site D. Early flushing of relatively larger trees in site D most likely requires access to deeper soil water reserves but small and large trees utilize stored tree water in site S.

Improving accuracy and precision of ice core δD(CH4) analyses using methane pre-pyrolysis and hydrogen post-pyrolysis trapping and subsequent chromatographic separation

Firn and polar ice cores offer the only direct palaeoatmospheric archive. Analyses of past greenhouse gas concentrations and their isotopic compositions in air bubbles in the ice can help to constrain changes in global biogeochemical cycles in the past. For the analysis of the hydrogen isotopic composition of methane (δD(CH4) or δ2H(CH4)) 0.5 to 1.5 kg of ice was hitherto used. Here we present a method to improve precision and reduce the sample amount for δD(CH4) measurements in (ice core) air. Pre-concentrated methane is focused in front of a high temperature oven (pre-pyrolysis trapping), and molecular hydrogen formed by pyrolysis is trapped afterwards (post-pyrolysis trapping), both on a carbon-PLOT capillary at −196 °C. Argon, oxygen, nitrogen, carbon monoxide, unpyrolysed methane and krypton are trapped together with H2 and must be separated using a second short, cooled chromatographic column to ensure accurate results. Pre- and post-pyrolysis trapping largely removes the isotopic fractionation induced during chromatographic separation and results in a narrow peak in the mass spectrometer. Air standards can be measured with a precision better than 1‰. For polar ice samples from glacial periods, we estimate a precision of 2.3‰ for 350 g of ice (or roughly 30 mL – at standard temperature and pressure (STP) – of air) with 350 ppb of methane. This corresponds to recent tropospheric air samples (about 1900 ppb CH4) of about 6 mL (STP) or about 500 pmol of pure CH4.

Contrasting long-term records of biomass burning in wet and dry savannas of equatorial East Africa

Rainfall controls fire in tropical savanna ecosystems through impacting both the amount and flammability of plant biomass, and consequently, predicted changes in tropical precipitation over the next century are likely to have contrasting effects on the fire regimes of wet and dry savannas. We reconstructed the long-term dynamics of biomass burning in equatorial East Africa, using fossil charcoal particles from two well-dated lake-sediment records in western Uganda and central Kenya. We compared these high-resolution (5 years/sample) time series of biomass burning, spanning the last 3800 and 1200 years, with independent data on past hydroclimatic variability and vegetation dynamics. In western Uganda, a rapid (<100 years) and permanent increase in burning occurred around 2170 years ago, when climatic drying replaced semideciduous forest by wooded grassland. At the century time scale, biomass burning was inversely related to moisture balance for much of the next two millennia until ca. 1750 ad, when burning increased strongly despite regional climate becoming wetter. A sustained decrease in burning since the mid20th century reflects the intensified modern-day landscape conversion into cropland and plantations. In contrast, in semiarid central Kenya, biomass burning peaked at intermediate moisture-balance levels, whereas it was lower both during the wettest and driest multidecadal periods of the last 1200 years. Here, burning steadily increased since the mid20th century, presumably due to more frequent deliberate ignitions for bush clearing and cattle ranching. Both the observed historical trends and regional contrasts in biomass burning are consistent with spatial variability in fire regimes across the African savanna biome today. They demonstrate the strong dependence of East African fire regimes on both climatic moisture balance and vegetation, and the extent to which this dependence is now being overridden by anthropogenic activity.

On the interference of Kr during carbon isotope analysis of methane using continuous-flow combustion–isotope ratio mass spectrometry

Stable carbon isotope analysis of methane (delta C-13 of CH4) on atmospheric samples is one key method to constrain the current and past atmospheric CH4 budget. A frequently applied measurement technique is gas chromatography (GC) isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) coupled to a combustion-preconcentration unit. This report shows that the atmospheric trace gas krypton (Kr) can severely interfere during the mass spectrometric measurement, leading to significant biases in delta C-13 of CH4, if krypton is not sufficiently separated during the analysis. According to our experiments, the krypton interference is likely composed of two individual effects, with the lateral tailing of the doubly charged Kr-86 peak affecting the neighbouring m/z 44 and partially the m/z 45 Faraday cups. Additionally, a broad signal affecting m/z 45 and especially m/z 46 is assumed to result from scattered ions of singly charged krypton. The introduced bias in the measured isotope ratios is dependent on the chromatographic separation, the krypton-to-CH4 mixing ratio in the sample, the focusing of the mass spectrometer as well as the detector configuration and can amount to up to several per mil in delta C-13. Apart from technical solutions to avoid this interference, we present correction routines to a posteriori remove the bias.

The stable carbon isotopic composition of Daphnia ephippia in small, temperate lakes reflects in-lake methane availability

Daphnia can ingest methane-oxidizing bacteria and incorporate methanogenic carbon into their biomass, leading to low stable carbon isotope ratios (expressed as δ13C values) of their tissue. Therefore, δ13C analysis of Daphnia resting eggs (ephippia) in lake sediment records can potentially be used to reconstruct past in-lake availability of methane (CH4). However, detailed multilake studies demonstrating that δ13C values of recently deposited Daphnia ephippia (δ13Cephippia) are systematically related to in-lake CH4 concentrations (CH4aq) are still missing. We measured δ13Cephippia from surface sediments of 15 small lakes in Europe, and compared these values with late-summer CH4aq. δ13Cephippia ranged from −51.6‰ to −25.9‰, and was strongly correlated with CH4aq in the surface water and above the sediment (r −0.73 and −0.77, respectively), whereas a negative rather than the expected positive correlation was found with δ13C values of carbon dioxide (CO2) (r −0.54), and no correlation was observed with CO2aq. At eight sites, offsets between δ13 CCO2 and δ13Cephippia exceeded offsets between δ13 CCO2 and δ13Calgae reported in literature. δ13Cephippia was positively correlated with δ13C values of sedimentary organic matter (r 0.54), but up to 20.7‰ lower in all except one of the lakes (average −6.1‰). We conclude that incorporation of methanogenic carbon prior to ephippia formation must have been widespread by Daphnia in our study lakes, especially those with high CH4aq. Our results suggest a systematic relationship between δ13Cephippia values and CH4aq in small temperate lakes, and that δ13Cephippia analysis on sediment records may provide insights into past changes in in-lake CH4aq.

Dry grasslands of Central-Eastern and South-Eastern Europe shaped by environmental heterogeneity and human land use – Editorial to the 10th Dry Grassland Special Feature

Der diesjährige 10. Trockenrasen-Sonderteil von Tuexenia beginnt mit einem Bericht über die aktuellen Aktivitäten der European Dry Grassland Group (EDGG). Zunächst geben wir einen Überblick über die Entwicklung der Mitgliederzahl. Dann berichten wir vom letzten European Dry Grassland Meeting in Tula (Russland, 2014) und vom letzten European Dry Grassland Field Workshop in Navarra (Spanien, 2014) und informieren über künftige Veranstaltungen der EDGG. Anschließend erläutern wir die Publikationsaktivitäten der EDGG. Im zweiten Teil des Editorials geben wir eine Einführung zu den fünf Artikeln des diesjährigen Trockenrasen-Sonderteils. Zwei Artikel beschäftigen sich mit der Syntaxonomie von Trockenrasen in Ost- bzw. Südosteuropa: der eine präsentiert erstmalig eine Gesamtklassifikation der Trockenrasengesellschaften Serbiens und des Kosovo während der andere Originalaufnahmen sub-montaner Graslandgesellschaften aus den bislang kaum untersuchten ukrainischen Ostkarpaten analysiert. Zwei weitere Artikel behandeln Trockenrasen-Feuchtwiesen-Komplexe im ungarischen Tiefland: Der eine behandelt den Einfluss der Landnutzung auf die Phytodiversität von Steppen und Feuchtwiesen, der andere den Einfluss von Niederschlagsschwankungen in einem Zeitraum von drei Jahren auf die Ausbildung salzbeeinflusster Steppen-Feuchtwiesen-Komplexe. Der fünfte Artikel analysiert landnutzungsbedingte Veränderungen des Graslands des Tsentralen-Balkan-Nationalparks in Bulgarien über einen Zeitraum von 65 Jahren