Changing correlation structures of the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation from 1000 to 2100 AD

Atmospheric circulation modes are important concepts in understanding the variability of atmospheric dynamics. Assuming their spatial patterns to be fixed, such modes are often described by simple indices from rather short observational data sets. The increasing length of reanalysis products allows these concepts and assumptions to be scrutinised. Here we investigate the stability of spatial patterns of Northern Hemisphere teleconnections by using the Twentieth Century Reanalysis as well as several control and transient millennium-scale simulations with coupled models. The observed and simulated centre of action of the two major teleconnection patterns, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and to some extent the Pacific North American (PNA), are not stable in time. The currently observed dipole pattern of the NAO, its centre of action over Iceland and the Azores, split into a north–south dipole pattern in the western Atlantic with a wave train pattern in the eastern part, connecting the British Isles with West Greenland and the eastern Mediterranean during the period 1940–1969 AD. The PNA centres of action over Canada are shifted southwards and over Florida into the Gulf of Mexico during the period 1915–1944 AD. The analysis further shows that shifts in the centres of action of either teleconnection pattern are not related to changes in the external forcing applied in transient simulations of the last millennium. Such shifts in their centres of action are accompanied by changes in the relation of local precipitation and temperature with the overlying atmospheric mode. These findings further undermine the assumption of stationarity between local climate/proxy variability and large-scale dynamics inherent when using proxy-based reconstructions of atmospheric modes, and call for a more robust understanding of atmospheric variability on decadal timescales.

What are the implications of changing treatment delivery models for patients with inflammatory bowel disease: a discussion paper.

An integrated model of care has been used effectively to manage chronic diseases; however, there is limited, yet encouraging evidence on its introduction in the management of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), a chronic gastrointestinal condition. Here, the rationale for and implications of introducing an integrated model of care for patients with IBD are discussed, with a particular focus on psychology input, patient-centred care, efficiency as perceived by patients and doctors, financial implications and the possible means of model introduction. This is a discussion paper on the integrated model of care for IBD against a background of what has been learned from an integrated model of care established in other chronic conditions. Although limited, the emerging data on an integrated model of care in IBD are encouraging with respect to patient outcomes and savings in healthcare costs. In other conditions, the model has been well received by both patients and practitioners, although the loss of autonomy by doctors is listed among its drawbacks. The cost-effectiveness data are now sufficiently convincing to recommend the model's acceptance in principle. The model should be promoted at the policy level rather than by individual practitioners to facilitate equal access for patients with IBD on a larger scale than currently.

Changing climates, moving people: framing migration, displacement and planned relocation

Different policies are required for different types of human mobility related to climatic changes. Hence, it is necessary to distinguish between migration, displacement and planned relocation in climate policy and operations. The purpose of this Policy Brief is to help distinguish between human migration, displacement and planned relocation and present state-of-the-art thinking about some of the key issues related to addressing these in the context of climate policy.

The changing values of children and preferences regarding family size in south Africa

This study extends the ongoing studies on values of children and intergenerational relations into an African context with the following key questions: To what extent can the structure of values of children (VOC) identified in previous studies be found in South Africa and what are women's preferences regarding the size of small, large, and ideal families? The sample consisted of three cohorts of Black South African women from the Limpopo Province. Factor analyses showed that the dimensions of VOC found in South Africa are a conglomeration of different values. Identified dimensions were Social/Emotional and Traditional/Utilitarian with respect to reasons for wanting children. Regarding reasons for not wanting children, Child as Source of Constraints and Constraints to Have a Child were identified. Intergenerational comparisons showed variations in the importance of value of children dimensions and in preferences regarding family size. Values of children of younger mothers were related to the number of children these women had and to their preferences regarding family size. The findings are discussed within the changing socio-political context of South Africa.

Temperature and Resource Availability May Interactively Affect Over-Wintering Success of Juvenile Fish in a Changing Climate

The predicted global warming may affect freshwater systems at several organizational levels, from organism to ecosystem. Specifically, in temperate regions, the projected increase of winter temperatures may have important effects on the over-winter biology of a range of organisms and especially for fish and other ectothermic animals. However, temperature effects on organisms may be directed strongly by resource availability. Here, we investigated whether over-winter loss of biomass and lipid content of juvenile roach (Rutilus rutilus) was affected by the physiologically relatively small (2-5°C) changes of winter temperatures predicted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), under both natural and experimental conditions. This was investigated in combination with the effects of food availability. Finally, we explored the potential for a correlation between lake temperature and resource levels for planktivorous fish, i.e., zooplankton biomass, during five consecutive winters in a south Swedish lake. We show that small increases in temperature (+2°C) affected fish biomass loss in both presence and absence of food, but negatively and positively respectively. Temperature alone explained only a minor part of the variation when food availability was not taken into account. In contrast to other studies, lipid analyses of experimental fish suggest that critical somatic condition rather than critical lipid content determined starvation induced mortality. Our results illustrate the importance of considering not only changes in temperature when predicting organism response to climate change but also food-web interactions, such as resource availability and predation. However, as exemplified by our finding that zooplankton over-winter biomass in the lake was not related to over-winter temperature, this may not be a straightforward task.

The Changing Environment of Audiovisual Media. New Technologies, New Patterns of Consumer/Business Behaviour and Their Implications for Audiovisual Media Regulation

Digital TV offers of 200 channels and 500 video-on-demand films, podcasting, mobile television, a new web blog being created every two seconds - these are some of the factual elements depicting contemporary audiovisual media in the digital environment. The present article looks into some of these technological advances and sketches their implications for the markets of media content, in particular as newly emerging patterns of consumer and business behaviour are concerned. Ultimately, it puts forward the question of whether the existing audiovisual media regulatory models, which are still predominantly analogue-based, have been rendered obsolete by the transformed (and continually transforming) digital environment.

Low dose irinotecan improves advanced lupus nephritis in mice potentially by changing DNA relaxation and anti–double-stranded DNA binding

Objective Albeit clear advances in the treatment of SLE, many patients still present with refractory lupus nephritis requiring new treatment strategies for this disease. Here we determined whether reduced doses of the topoisomerase I inhibitor irinotecan, which is known as chemotherapeutic agent, were able to suppress SLE in NZB/W F1 mice. We further evaluated the potential mechanism how irinotecan influenced the course of SLE. Methods NZB/W F1 mice were treated with low dose irinotecan either from week 24 of age or from established glomerulonephritis defined by a proteinuria ≥grade 3+. Binding of anti-dsDNA antibodies was measured by ELISA; and DNA relaxation was visualized by gel electrophoresis. Results Significantly reduced irinotecan dosages improved lupus nephritis and prolonged survival in NZB/W F1 mice. The lowest dose successfully used for the treatment of established murine lupus nephritis was more than 50 times lower than the dose usually applied for chemotherapy in humans. As a mechanism, low dose irinotecan reduced B cell activity; however, the levels of B cell activity in irinotecan-treated mice were similar to those in Balb/c mice of the same age suggesting that irinotecan did not induce a clear immunosuppression. In addition, incubation of double-stranded (ds) DNA with topoisomerase I increased binding of murine and human anti-dsDNA antibodies showing for the first time that relaxed DNA is more susceptible to anti-dsDNA antibody binding. This effect was reversed by addition of the topoisomerase I inhibitor camptothecin. Conclusion Our results propose topoisomerase I inhibitors as a novel and targeted therapy for SLE. © 2014 American College of Rheumatology.

Lake surface temperatures in a changing climate: a global sensitivity analysis

We estimate the effects of climatic changes, as predicted by six climate models, on lake surface temperatures on a global scale, using the lake surface equilibrium temperature as a proxy. We evaluate interactions between different forcing variables, the sensitivity of lake surface temperatures to these variables, as well as differences between climate zones. Lake surface equilibrium temperatures are predicted to increase by 70 to 85 % of the increase in air temperatures. On average, air temperature is the main driver for changes in lake surface temperatures, and its effect is reduced by ~10 % by changes in other meteorological variables. However, the contribution of these other variables to the variance is ~40 % of that of air temperature, and their effects can be important at specific locations. The warming increases the importance of longwave radiation and evaporation for the lake surface heat balance compared to shortwave radiation and convective heat fluxes. We discuss the consequences of our findings for the design and evaluation of different types of studies on climate change effects on lakes.