Culture of ovine bone marrow-derived macrophages and evidence for serum factors distinct from M-CSF contributing to their propagation in vitro.

An in vitro system allowing the culture of ovine bone marrow-derived macrophages (BMMs) is described. Bone marrow (BM) cells from the sternum of 4- to 9-month-old sheep were cultured in liquid suspension in hydrophobic bags with medium containing 20% autologous serum and 20% fetal calf serum (FCS). Cells with macrophage characteristics were positively selected and increased four- to five-fold between day (d) 0 and d18. Granulocytes and cells of lymphoid appearance including progenitor cells were negatively selected and were diminished 50-fold during this 18-d culture. The addition of macrophage colony-stimulating factor (M-CSF)-containing supernatants to liquid cultures did not significantly improve the yield of BMM in 18-d cultures. In contrast, cell survival at d6 and macrophage cell yield at d18 depended on the concentration and source of serum in the culture medium. FCS and 1:1 mixtures of FCS and autologous serum were superior to autologous serum alone. Analysis of growth requirements of ovine BMMs suggested that they are under more complex growth control than their murine counterparts. In an [3H]thymidine incorporation assay with BM cells collected at different times of culture, d3 or d4 BM cells responded to human recombinant M-CSF, human recombinant granulocyte-macrophage colony-stimulating factor (GM-CSF), bovine GM-CSF, murine M-CSF or murine M-CSF-containing supernatants, and bovine interleukin 1 beta (IL-1 beta) in decreasing order of magnitude. Likewise, pure murine BMM populations harvested at d6 responded to homologous GM-CSF, IL-3, and human or murine M-CSF. FCS did not stimulate the proliferation of murine BMMs (d6) and of ovine BM cells (d3 or d4). In contrast, ovine BM cells harvested at d12 responded to FCS by proliferation in a dose-dependent manner but failed to proliferate in the presence of human or murine M-CSF or M-CSF-containing supernatants of mouse and sheep fibroblasts containing mouse macrophage growth-promoting activity. Likewise, various cytokine-containing supernatants and recombinant cytokines (murine IL-3, murine and human GM-CSF, murine and bovine IL-1 beta) did not promote proliferation of ovine d12 BM cells to an extent greater than that achieved with 15% FCS alone. Thus, ovine BMM proliferation is under the control of at least two factors acting in sequence, M-CSF and an unidentified factor contained in FCS. The ovine BMM culture system may provide a model for the analysis of myelomonocytopoiesis in vitro.

Fast parallel kriging-based stepwise uncertainty reduction with application to the identification of an excursion set

Stepwise uncertainty reduction (SUR) strategies aim at constructing a sequence of points for evaluating a function  f in such a way that the residual uncertainty about a quantity of interest progressively decreases to zero. Using such strategies in the framework of Gaussian process modeling has been shown to be efficient for estimating the volume of excursion of f above a fixed threshold. However, SUR strategies remain cumbersome to use in practice because of their high computational complexity, and the fact that they deliver a single point at each iteration. In this article we introduce several multipoint sampling criteria, allowing the selection of batches of points at which f can be evaluated in parallel. Such criteria are of particular interest when f is costly to evaluate and several CPUs are simultaneously available. We also manage to drastically reduce the computational cost of these strategies through the use of closed form formulas. We illustrate their performances in various numerical experiments, including a nuclear safety test case. Basic notions about kriging, auxiliary problems, complexity calculations, R code, and data are available online as supplementary materials.

Monte Carlo modeling of polarized light propagation: Stokes vs Jones - Part I

This bipartite comparative study aims at inspecting the similarities and differences between the Jones and Stokes–Mueller formalisms when modeling polarized light propagation with numerical simulations of the Monte Carlo type. In this first part, we review the theoretical concepts that concern light propagation and detection with both pure and partially/totally unpolarized states. The latter case involving fluctuations, or “depolarizing effects,” is of special interest here: Jones and Stokes–Mueller are equally apt to model such effects and are expected to yield identical results. In a second, ensuing paper, empirical evidence is provided by means of numerical experiments, using both formalisms.

Monte Carlo modeling of polarized light propagation: Stokes vs Jones - Part II

In this second part of our comparative study inspecting the (dis)similarities between “Stokes” and “Jones,” we present simulation results yielded by two independent Monte Carlo programs: (i) one developed in Bern with the Jones formalism and (ii) the other implemented in Ulm with the Stokes notation. The simulated polarimetric experiments involve suspensions of polystyrene spheres with varying size. Reflection and refraction at the sample/air interfaces are also considered. Both programs yield identical results when propagating pure polarization states, yet, with unpolarized illumination, second order statistical differences appear, thereby highlighting the pre-averaged nature of the Stokes parameters. This study serves as a validation for both programs and clarifies the misleading belief according to which “Jones cannot treat depolarizing effects.”

Quantifying uncertainty on Pareto fronts with Gaussian process conditional simulations

Multi-objective optimization algorithms aim at finding Pareto-optimal solutions. Recovering Pareto fronts or Pareto sets from a limited number of function evaluations are challenging problems. A popular approach in the case of expensive-to-evaluate functions is to appeal to metamodels. Kriging has been shown efficient as a base for sequential multi-objective optimization, notably through infill sampling criteria balancing exploitation and exploration such as the Expected Hypervolume Improvement. Here we consider Kriging metamodels not only for selecting new points, but as a tool for estimating the whole Pareto front and quantifying how much uncertainty remains on it at any stage of Kriging-based multi-objective optimization algorithms. Our approach relies on the Gaussian process interpretation of Kriging, and bases upon conditional simulations. Using concepts from random set theory, we propose to adapt the Vorob’ev expectation and deviation to capture the variability of the set of non-dominated points. Numerical experiments illustrate the potential of the proposed workflow, and it is shown on examples how Gaussian process simulations and the estimated Vorob’ev deviation can be used to monitor the ability of Kriging-based multi-objective optimization algorithms to accurately learn the Pareto front.

Networks of Information Exchange Under Uncertainty: The Case of Unconventional Gas Development in the United Kingdom

Modern policy-making is increasingly influenced by different types of uncertainty. Political actors are supposed to behave differently under the context of uncertainty then in “usual” decision-making processes. Actors exchange information in order to convince other actors and decision-makers, to coordinate their lobbying activities and form coalitions, and to get information and learn on the substantive issue. The literature suggests that preference similarity, social trust, perceived power and functional interdependence are particularly important drivers of information exchange. We assume that social trust as well as being connected to scientific actors is more important under uncertainty than in a setting with less uncertainty. To investigate information exchange under uncertainty analyze the case of unconventional shale gas development in the UK from 2008 till 2014. Our study will rely on statistical analyses of survey data on a diverse set of actors dealing with shale gas development and regulation in the UK.

Policy Instrument Selection under Uncertainty: The Case of Micropollution Regulation

The paper addresses the question of which factors drive the formation of policy preferences when there are remaining uncertainties about the causes and effects of the problem at stake. To answer this question we examine policy preferences reducing aquatic micropollutants, a specific case of water protection policy and different actor groups (e.g. state, science, target groups). Here, we contrast two types of policy preferences: a) preventive or source-directed policies, which mitigate pollution in order to avoid contact with water; and b) reactive or end-of-pipe policies, which filter water already contaminated by pollutants. In a second step, we analyze the drivers for actors’ policy preferences by focusing on three sets of explanations, i.e. participation, affectedness and international collaborations. The analysis of our survey data, qualitative interviews and regression analysis of the Swiss political elite show that participation in the policy-making process leads to knowledge exchange and reduces uncertainties about the policy problem, which promotes preferences for preventive policies. Likewise, actors who are affected by the consequences of micropollutants, such as consumer or environmental associations, opt for anticipatory policies. Interestingly, we find that uncertainties about the effectiveness of preventive policies can promote preferences for end-of-pipe policies. While preventive measures often rely on (uncertain) behavioral changes of target groups, reactive policies are more reliable when it comes to fulfilling defined policy goals. Finally, we find that in a transboundary water management context, actors with international collaborations prefer policies that produce immediate and reliable outcomes.

Functional error modeling for uncertainty quantification in hydrogeology

Approximate models (proxies) can be employed to reduce the computational costs of estimating uncertainty. The price to pay is that the approximations introduced by the proxy model can lead to a biased estimation. To avoid this problem and ensure a reliable uncertainty quantification, we propose to combine functional data analysis and machine learning to build error models that allow us to obtain an accurate prediction of the exact response without solving the exact model for all realizations. We build the relationship between proxy and exact model on a learning set of geostatistical realizations for which both exact and approximate solvers are run. Functional principal components analysis (FPCA) is used to investigate the variability in the two sets of curves and reduce the dimensionality of the problem while maximizing the retained information. Once obtained, the error model can be used to predict the exact response of any realization on the basis of the sole proxy response. This methodology is purpose-oriented as the error model is constructed directly for the quantity of interest, rather than for the state of the system. Also, the dimensionality reduction performed by FPCA allows a diagnostic of the quality of the error model to assess the informativeness of the learning set and the fidelity of the proxy to the exact model. The possibility of obtaining a prediction of the exact response for any newly generated realization suggests that the methodology can be effectively used beyond the context of uncertainty quantification, in particular for Bayesian inference and optimization.

Delegation Proxies: The Power of Propagation

Scoping behavioral variations to dynamic extents is useful to support non-functional requirements that otherwise result in cross-cutting code. Unfortunately, such variations are difficult to achieve with traditional reflection or aspects. We show that with a modification of dynamic proxies, called delegation proxies, it becomes possible to reflectively implement variations that propagate to all objects accessed in the dynamic extent of a message send. We demonstrate our approach with examples of variations scoped to dynamic extents that help simplify code related to safety, reliability, and monitoring.