Temporal Changes in Randomness of Bird Communities across Central Europe

Many studies have examined whether communities are structured by random or deterministic processes, and both are likely to play a role, but relatively few studies have attempted to quantify the degree of randomness in species composition. We quantified, for the first time, the degree of randomness in forest bird communities based on an analysis of spatial autocorrelation in three regions of Germany. The compositional dissimilarity between pairs of forest patches was regressed against the distance between them. We then calculated the y-intercept of the curve, i.e. the ‘nugget’, which represents the compositional dissimilarity at zero spatial distance. We therefore assume, following similar work on plant communities, that this represents the degree of randomness in species composition. We then analysed how the degree of randomness in community composition varied over time and with forest management intensity, which we expected to reduce the importance of random processes by increasing the strength of environmental drivers. We found that a high portion of the bird community composition could be explained by chance (overall mean of 0.63), implying that most of the variation in local bird community composition is driven by stochastic processes. Forest management intensity did not consistently affect the mean degree of randomness in community composition, perhaps because the bird communities were relatively insensitive to management intensity. We found a high temporal variation in the degree of randomness, which may indicate temporal variation in assembly processes and in the importance of key environmental drivers. We conclude that the degree of randomness in community composition should be considered in bird community studies, and the high values we find may indicate that bird community composition is relatively hard to predict at the regional scale.

Temporal evolution of strut light intensity after implantation of bioresorbable polymeric intracoronary scaffolds in the ABSORB cohort B trial-an application of a new quantitative method based on optical coherence tomography.

BACKGROUND Quantitative light intensity analysis of the strut core by optical coherence tomography (OCT) may enable assessment of changes in the light reflectivity of the bioresorbable polymeric scaffold from polymer to provisional matrix and connective tissues, with full disappearance and integration of the scaffold into the vessel wall. The aim of this report was to describe the methodology and to apply it to serial human OCT images post procedure and at 6, 12, 24 and 36 months in the ABSORB cohort B trial. METHODS AND RESULTS In serial frequency-domain OCT pullbacks, corresponding struts at different time points were identified by 3-dimensional foldout view. The peak and median values of light intensity were measured in the strut core by dedicated software. A total of 303 corresponding struts were serially analyzed at 3 time points. In the sequential analysis, peak light intensity increased gradually in the first 24 months after implantation and reached a plateau (relative difference with respect to baseline [%Dif]: 61.4% at 12 months, 115.0% at 24 months, 110.7% at 36 months), while the median intensity kept increasing at 36 months (%Dif: 14.3% at 12 months, 75.0% at 24 months, 93.1% at 36 months). CONCLUSIONS Quantitative light intensity analysis by OCT was capable of detecting subtle changes in the bioresorbable strut appearance over time, and could be used to monitor the bioresorption and integration process of polylactide struts.

Time-series analysis of Campylobacter incidence in Switzerland

SUMMARY Campylobacteriosis has been the most common food-associated notifiable infectious disease in Switzerland since 1995. Contact with and ingestion of raw or undercooked broilers are considered the dominant risk factors for infection. In this study, we investigated the temporal relationship between the disease incidence in humans and the prevalence of Campylobacter in broilers in Switzerland from 2008 to 2012. We use a time-series approach to describe the pattern of the disease by incorporating seasonal effects and autocorrelation. The analysis shows that prevalence of Campylobacter in broilers, with a 2-week lag, has a significant impact on disease incidence in humans. Therefore Campylobacter cases in humans can be partly explained by contagion through broiler meat. We also found a strong autoregressive effect in human illness, and a significant increase of illness during Christmas and New Year's holidays. In a final analysis, we corrected for the sampling error of prevalence in broilers and the results gave similar conclusions.

Spatial-temporal clustering of companion animal enteric syndrome: detection and investigation through the use of electronic medical records from participating private practices

SUMMARY There is interest in the potential of companion animal surveillance to provide data to improve pet health and to provide early warning of environmental hazards to people. We implemented a companion animal surveillance system in Calgary, Alberta and the surrounding communities. Informatics technologies automatically extracted electronic medical records from participating veterinary practices and identified cases of enteric syndrome in the warehoused records. The data were analysed using time-series analyses and a retrospective space-time permutation scan statistic. We identified a seasonal pattern of reports of occurrences of enteric syndromes in companion animals and four statistically significant clusters of enteric syndrome cases. The cases within each cluster were examined and information about the animals involved (species, age, sex), their vaccination history, possible exposure or risk behaviour history, information about disease severity, and the aetiological diagnosis was collected. We then assessed whether the cases within the cluster were unusual and if they represented an animal or public health threat. There was often insufficient information recorded in the medical record to characterize the clusters by aetiology or exposures. Space-time analysis of companion animal enteric syndrome cases found evidence of clustering. Collection of more epidemiologically relevant data would enhance the utility of practice-based companion animal surveillance.

Exploring occasion specificity in the assessment of DSM-5 maladaptive personality traits: A latent state-trait theory analysis.

The alternative classification system for personality disorders in DSM-5 features a hierarchical model of maladaptive personality traits. This trait model comprises five broad trait domains and 25 specific trait facets that can be reliably assessed using the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 (PID-5). Although there is a steadily growing literature on the validity of the PID-5, issues of temporal stability and situational influences on test scores are currently unexplored. We addressed these issues using a sample of 611 research participants who completed the PID-5 three times, with time intervals of two months. Latent state-trait (LST) analyses for each of the 25 PID-5 trait facets showed that, on average, 79.5% of the variance was due to stable traits (i.e., consistency), and 7.7% of the variance was due to situational factors (i.e., occasion specificity). Our findings suggest that the PID-5 trait facets predominantly capture individual differences that are stable across time.

Species richness, but not phylogenetic diversity, influences community biomass production and temporal stability in a re-examination of 16 grassland biodiversity studies

* Hundreds of experiments have now manipulated species richness (SR) of various groups of organisms and examined how this aspect of biological diversity influences ecosystem functioning. Ecologists have recently expanded this field to look at whether phylogenetic diversity (PD) among species, often quantified as the sum of branch lengths on a molecular phylogeny leading to all species in a community, also predicts ecological function. Some have hypothesized that phylogenetic divergence should be a superior predictor of ecological function than SR because evolutionary relatedness represents the degree of ecological and functional differentiation among species. But studies to date have provided mixed support for this hypothesis. * Here, we reanalyse data from 16 experiments that have manipulated plant SR in grassland ecosystems and examined the impact on above-ground biomass production over multiple time points. Using a new molecular phylogeny of the plant species used in these experiments, we quantified how the PD of plants impacts average community biomass production as well as the stability of community biomass production through time. * Using four complementary analyses, we show that, after statistically controlling for variation in SR, PD (the sum of branches in a molecular phylogenetic tree connecting all species in a community) is neither related to mean community biomass nor to the temporal stability of biomass. These results run counter to past claims. However, after controlling for SR, PD was positively related to variation in community biomass over time due to an increase in the variances of individual species, but this relationship was not strong enough to influence community stability. * In contrast to the non-significant relationships between PD, biomass and stability, our analyses show that SR per se tends to increase the mean biomass production of plant communities, after controlling for PD. The relationship between SR and temporal variation in community biomass was either positive, non-significant or negative depending on which analysis was used. However, the increases in community biomass with SR, independently of PD, always led to increased stability. These results suggest that PD is no better as a predictor of ecosystem functioning than SR. * Synthesis. Our study on grasslands offers a cautionary tale when trying to relate PD to ecosystem functioning suggesting that there may be ecologically important trait and functional variation among species that is not explained by phylogenetic relatedness. Our results fail to support the hypothesis that the conservation of evolutionarily distinct species would be more effective than the conservation of SR as a way to maintain productive and stable communities under changing environmental conditions.

Monitoring the temporal development of natural hazard risks as a basis indicator for climate change adaptation.

The potential effects of climatic changes on natural risks are widely discussed. But the formulation of strategies for adapting risk management practice to climate changes requires knowledge of the related risks for people and economic values. The main goals of this work were (1) the development of a method for analysing and comparing risks induced by different natural hazard types, (2) highlighting the most relevant natural hazard processes and related damages, (3) the development of an information system for the monitoring of the temporal development of natural hazard risk and (4) the visualisation of the resulting information for the wider public. A comparative exposure analysis provides the basis for pointing out the hot spots of natural hazard risks in the province of Carinthia, Austria. An analysis of flood risks in all municipalities provides the basis for setting the priorities in the planning of flood protection measures. The methods form the basis for a monitoring system that periodically observes the temporal development of natural hazard risks. This makes it possible firstly to identify situations in which natural hazard risks are rising and secondly to differentiate between the most relevant factors responsible for the increasing risks. The factors that most influence the natural risks could be made evident.

Analysis of hand kinematics reveals inter-individual differences in intertemporal decision dynamics

During intertemporal decisions, the preference for smaller, sooner reward over larger-delayed rewards (temporal discounting, TD) exhibits substantial inter-subject variability; however, it is currently unclear what are the mechanisms underlying this apparently idiosyncratic behavior. To answer this question, here we recorded and analyzed mouse movement kinematics during intertemporal choices in a large sample of participants (N = 86). Results revealed a specific pattern of decision dynamics associated with the selection of “immediate” versus “delayed” response alternatives, which well discriminated between a “discounter” versus a “farsighted” behavior—thus representing a reliable behavioral marker of TD preferences. By fitting the Drift Diffusion Model to the data, we showed that differences between discounter and farsighted subjects could be explained in terms of different model parameterizations, corresponding to the use of different choice mechanisms in the two groups. While farsighted subjects were biased toward the “delayed” option, discounter subjects were not correspondingly biased toward the “immediate” option. Rather, as shown by the dynamics of evidence accumulation over time, their behavior was characterized by high choice uncertainty.

The temporal evolution of nonverbal synchrony in outpatient psychotherapy: An aggregation of single-case studies

Objective: The authors quantified nonverbal synchrony—the coordination of patient's and therapist's movement—in a random sample of same-sex psychotherapy dyads. The authors contrasted nonverbal synchrony in these dyads with a control condition and assessed its association with session-level and overall psychotherapy outcome. Method: Using an automated objective video analysis algorithm (Motion Energy Analysis; MEA), the authors calculated nonverbal synchrony in (n = 104) videotaped psychotherapy sessions from 70 Caucasian patients (37 women, 33 men, mean age = 36.5 years, SD = 10.2) treated at an outpatient psychotherapy clinic. The sample was randomly drawn from an archive (N = 301) of routinely videotaped psychotherapies. Patients and their therapists assessed session impact with self-report postsession questionnaires. A battery of pre- and postsymptomatology questionnaires measured therapy effectiveness. Results: The authors found that nonverbal synchrony is higher in genuine interactions contrasted with pseudointeractions (a control condition generated by a specifically designed shuffling procedure). Furthermore, nonverbal synchrony is associated with session-level process as well as therapy outcome: It is increased in sessions rated by patients as manifesting high relationship quality and in patients experiencing high self-efficacy. Higher nonverbal synchrony characterized psychotherapies with higher symptom reduction. Conclusions: The results suggest that nonverbal synchrony embodies the patients' self-reported quality of the relationship and further variables of therapy process. This hitherto overlooked facet of therapeutic relationships might prove useful as an indicator of therapy progress and outcome. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved)