53 resultados para Small Area Estimation


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After attending this presentation, attendees will: (1) understand how body height from computed tomography data can be estimated; and, (2) gain knowledge about the accuracy of estimated body height and limitations. The presentation will impact the forensic science community by providing knowledge and competence which will enable attendees to develop formulas for single bones to reconstruct body height using postmortem Computer Tomography (p-CT) data. The estimation of Body Height (BH) is an important component of the identification of corpses and skeletal remains. Stature can be estimated with relative accuracy via the measurement of long bones, such as the femora. Compared to time-consuming maceration procedures, p-CT allows fast and simple measurements of bones. This study undertook four objectives concerning the accuracy of BH estimation via p-CT: (1) accuracy between measurements on native bone and p-CT imaged bone (F1 according to Martin 1914); (2) intra-observer p-CT measurement precision; (3) accuracy between formula-based estimation of the BH and conventional body length measurement during autopsy; and, (4) accuracy of different estimation formulas available.1 In the first step, the accuracy of measurements in the CT compared to those obtained using an osteometric board was evaluated on the basis of eight defleshed femora. Then the femora of 83 female and 144 male corpses of a Swiss population for which p-CTs had been performed, were measured at the Institute of Forensic Medicine in Bern. After two months, 20 individuals were measured again in order to assess the intraobserver error. The mean age of the men was 53±17 years and that of the women was 61±20 years. Additionally, the body length of the corpses was measured conventionally. The mean body length was 176.6±7.2cm for men and 163.6±7.8cm for women. The images that were obtained using a six-slice CT were reconstructed with a slice thickness of 1.25mm. Analysis and measurements of CT images were performed on a multipurpose workstation. As a forensic standard procedure, stature was estimated by means of the regression equations by Penning & Riepert developed on a Southern German population and for comparison, also those referenced by Trotter & Gleser “American White.”2,3 All statistical tests were performed with a statistical software. No significant differences were found between the CT and osteometric board measurements. The double p-CT measurement of 20 individuals resulted in an absolute intra-observer difference of 0.4±0.3mm. For both sexes, the correlation between the body length and the estimated BH using the F1 measurements was highly significant. The correlation coefficient was slightly higher for women. The differences in accuracy of the different formulas were small. While the errors of BH estimation were generally ±4.5–5.0cm, the consideration of age led to an increase in accuracy of a few millimetres to about 1cm. BH estimations according to Penning & Riepert and Trotter & Gleser were slightly more accurate when age-at-death was taken into account.2,3 That way, stature estimations in the group of individuals older than 60 years were improved by about 2.4cm and 3.1cm.2,3 The error of estimation is therefore about a third of the common ±4.7cm error range. Femur measurements in p-CT allow very accurate BH estimations. Estimations according to Penning led to good results that (barely) come closer to the true value than the frequently used formulas by Trotter & Gleser “American White.”2,3 Therefore, the formulas by Penning & Riepert are also validated for this substantial recent Swiss population.

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Pollen and plant macrofossils were analysed at Sägistalsee (1935 m asl), a small lake near timber-line in the Swiss Northern Alps. Open forests with Pinus cembra and Abies alba covered the catchment during the early Holocene (9000–6300 cal. BP), suggesting subcontinental climate conditions. After the expansion of Picea abies between 6300 and 6000 cal. BP the subalpine forest became denser and the tree-line reached its maximum elevation at around 2260 m asl. Charcoal fragments in the macrofossil record indicate the beginning of Late-Neolithic human impact at ca. 4400 cal. BP, followed by a extensive deforestation and lowering of the forest-limit in the catchment of Sägistalsee at 3700 cal. BP (Bronze Age). Continuous human activity, combined with a more oceanic climate during the later Holocene, led to the local extinction of Pinus cembra and Abies alba and favoured the mass expansion of Picea and Alnus viridis in the subalpine area of the Northern Alps. The periods before 6300 and after 3700 cal. BP are characterised by high erosion activity in the lake's catchment, whereas during the phase of dense Picea-Pinus cembra-Abies forests (6300–3700 cal. BP) soils were stable and sediment-accumulation rates in the lake were low. Due to decreasing land-use at higher altitudes during the Roman occupation and the Migration period, forests spread beween ca. 2000 and 1500 cal. BP, before human impact increased again in the early Middle Ages. Recent reforestation due to land-use changes in the 20th century is recorded in the top sediments. Pollen-inferred July temperature and annual precipitation suggest a trend to cooler and more oceanic climate starting at about 5500 cal. BP.

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Comets often display narrow dust jets but more diffuse gas comae when their eccentric orbits bring them into the inner solar system and sunlight sublimates the ice on the nucleus. Comets are also understood to have one or more active areas covering only a fraction of the total surface active with sublimating volatile ices. Calculations of the gas and dust distribution from a small active area on a comet’s nucleus show that as the gas moves out radially into the vacuum of space it expands tangentially, filling much of the hemisphere centered on the active region. The dust dragged by the gas remains more concentrated over the active area. This explains some puzzling appearances of comets having collimated dust jets but more diffuse gaseous atmospheres. Our test case is 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko, the Rosetta mission target comet, whose activity is dominated by a single area covering only 4% of its surface.

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Small mammals can impede tree regeneration by injuring seedlings and saplings in several ways. One fatal way is by severing their stems, but apparently this type of predation is not well-studied in tropical rain forest. Here, we report on the incidence of 'stem-cutting' to new, wild seedlings of two locally dominant, canopy tree species monitored in 40 paired forest understorey and gap-habitat areas in Korup, Cameroon following a 2007 masting event. In gap areas, which are required for the upward growth and sapling recruitment of both species, 137 seedlings of the long-lived, light-demanding, fast-growing large tropical tree (Microberlinia bisulcata) were highly susceptible to stem-cutting (83% of deaths) - it killed 39% of all seedlings over a c. 2-y period. In stark contrast, seedlings of the more shade-tolerant, slower-growing tree species (Tetraberlinia bifoliolata) were hardly attacked (4.3%). In the understorey, however, stem-cutting was virtually absent. Across the gap areas, the incidence of stem-cutting of M. bisulcata seedlings showed significant spatial variation that could not be explained significantly by either canopy openness or Janzen-Connell type effects (proximity and basal area of conspecific adult trees). To examine physical and chemical traits that might explain the species difference to being cut, bark and wood tissues were collected from a separate sample of seedlings in gaps (i.e. not monitored for stem-cutting). These analyses suggested that, compared with T. bifoliolata, the lower stem density, higher Mg and K and fatty acid concentrations in bark, and fewer phenolic and terpene compounds in M. bisulcata seedlings made them more palatable and attractive to small-mammal predators, likely rodents. We conclude that selective stem-cutting is a potent countervailing force to the current local canopy dominance of the grove-forming M. bisulcata by limiting the recruitment and abundance of its saplings. Given the ubiquity of gaps and ground-dwelling rodents in pantropical forests, it would be surprising if this form of lethal browsing was restricted to Korup.

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Purpose To this day, the slit lamp remains the first tool used by an ophthalmologist to examine patient eyes. Imaging of the retina poses, however, a variety of problems, namely a shallow depth of focus, reflections from the optical system, a small field of view and non-uniform illumination. For ophthalmologists, the use of slit lamp images for documentation and analysis purposes, however, remains extremely challenging due to large image artifacts. For this reason, we propose an automatic retinal slit lamp video mosaicking, which enlarges the field of view and reduces amount of noise and reflections, thus enhancing image quality. Methods Our method is composed of three parts: (i) viable content segmentation, (ii) global registration and (iii) image blending. Frame content is segmented using gradient boosting with custom pixel-wise features. Speeded-up robust features are used for finding pair-wise translations between frames with robust random sample consensus estimation and graph-based simultaneous localization and mapping for global bundle adjustment. Foreground-aware blending based on feathering merges video frames into comprehensive mosaics. Results Foreground is segmented successfully with an area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.9557. Mosaicking results and state-of-the-art methods were compared and rated by ophthalmologists showing a strong preference for a large field of view provided by our method. Conclusions The proposed method for global registration of retinal slit lamp images of the retina into comprehensive mosaics improves over state-of-the-art methods and is preferred qualitatively.

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Conspecific effects of neighbours on small-tree survival may have a role in tree population dynamics and community composition of tropical forests. This notion was tested with data from two 4-ha plots in lowland forest at Danum, Sabah (Borneo), for a 21-year interval (censuses at 1986, 1996, 2001, 2007). Species with ≥45 focal trees 10 to <100 cm stem girth per plot in 1986 were selected. Logistic regressions fitted mean focal tree size and mean inverse-distance-weighted basal area abundance of neighbours (within 20 m), for the periods over which each focus tree was alive. Coefficients of variation of neighbourhood basal area abundance, both spatially and temporally, quantified the changing environment of each focus tree. Fits were critically and individually evaluated, with corrections for spatial autocorrelation. Conspecific effects at Danum was generally very weak or non-existent: species’ mortality rates varied also across plots. The main reasons appear to be that (1) species were not dense enough to interact despite frequent although weak spatial aggregation, and their neighbourhoods were highly differing in species composition; and (2) these neighbourhoods were highly variable temporally, meaning that focus trees experienced stochastically fluctuating neighbourhood environments. Only one species, Dimorphocalyx muricatus, showed strong conspecific effects (varying between plots) which can be explained by its distinct ecology. This understorey species is highly aggregated on ridges and is drought-tolerant. That this functionally and habitat-specialized species, has implied intraspecific density-dependent feedback in its dynamics is a remarkable indication of the overall processes maintaining stability of the Danum forest.

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Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is one of the most dangerous human neurological infections occurring in Europe and Northern parts of Asia with thousands of cases and millions vaccinated against it. The risk of TBE might be assessed through analyses of the samples taken from wildlife or from animals which are in close contact with humans. Dogs have been shown to be a good sentinel species for these studies. Serological assays for diagnosis of TBE in dogs are mainly based on purified and inactivated TBEV antigens. Here we describe novel dog anti-TBEV IgG monoclonal antibody (MAb)-capture assay which is based on TBEV prME subviral particles expressed in mammalian cells from Semliki Forest virus (SFV) replicon as well as IgG immunofluorescence assay (IFA) which is based on Vero E6 cells transfected with the same SFV replicon. We further demonstrate their use in a small-scale TBEV seroprevalence study of dogs representing different regions of Finland. Altogether, 148 dog serum samples were tested by novel assays and results were compared to those obtained with a commercial IgG enzyme immunoassay (EIA), hemagglutination inhibition test and IgG IFA with TBEV infected cells. Compared to reference tests, the sensitivities of the developed assays were 90-100% and the specificities of the two assays were 100%. Analysis of the dog serum samples showed a seroprevalence of 40% on Åland Islands and 6% on Southwestern archipelago of Finland. In conclusion, a specific and sensitive EIA and IFA for the detection of IgG antibodies in canine sera were developed. Based on these assays the seroprevalence of IgG antibodies in dogs from different regions of Finland was assessed and was shown to parallel the known human disease burden as the Southwestern archipelago and Åland Islands in particular had considerable dog TBEV antibody prevalence and represent areas with high risk of TBE for humans.

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68 lakes (63 Swiss, 2 French and 3 Italian) located in an altitudinal range between 334 and 2339m spanning a wide range of land-use have been investigated. The aim of the study was to discuss influences of geographic location, vegetation and land-use in the catchment area on the water and sediment chemistry of small lakes. Detailed quantitative description of land-use, vegetation, and climate in the watershed of all lakes was established. Surface and bottom water samples collected from each lake were analyzed for major ions and nutrients. Correlations were interpreted using linear regression analysis. Chemical parameters of water and sediment reflect the characteristics of the catchment areas. All lakes were alkaline since they were situated on calcareous bedrock. Concentrations of nitrogen and phosphorus strongly increase with increasing agricultural land-use. Na and K, however, are positively correlated with the amount of urbanization within the catchment area. These elements as well as dissolved organic carbon (DOC), Mg, Ca, and alkalinity, increase when the catchment is urbanized or used for agriculture. Total nitrogen and organic carbon in the sediments decrease distinctly if large parts of the catchment consist of bare land. No correlations between sediment composition and maximum water depth or altitude of the lakes were found.¶Striking differences in the water compositions of lakes above and below approximately 700 m of altitude were observed. Concentrations of total nitrogen and nitrate, total phosphorus, DOC, Na, K, Mg, Ca, and alkalinity are distinctly higher in most lakes below 700 m than above, and the pH of the bottom waters of these lakes is generally lower. Estimates of total nitrogen concentrations, even in remote areas, indicate that precipitation is responsible for increased background concentrations. At lower altitudes nitrogen concentrations in lakes is explained by the nitrogen loaded rain from urban areas deposited on the catchment, and with high percentages of agricultural land-use in the watershed.