Non-ignorable loss to follow-up: correcting mortality estimates based on additional outcome ascertainment

Loss to follow-up (LTFU) is a common problem in many epidemiological studies. In antiretroviral treatment (ART) programs for patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), mortality estimates can be biased if the LTFU mechanism is non-ignorable, that is, mortality differs between lost and retained patients. In this setting, routine procedures for handling missing data may lead to biased estimates. To appropriately deal with non-ignorable LTFU, explicit modeling of the missing data mechanism is needed. This can be based on additional outcome ascertainment for a sample of patients LTFU, for example, through linkage to national registries or through survey-based methods. In this paper, we demonstrate how this additional information can be used to construct estimators based on inverse probability weights (IPW) or multiple imputation. We use simulations to contrast the performance of the proposed estimators with methods widely used in HIV cohort research for dealing with missing data. The practical implications of our approach are illustrated using South African ART data, which are partially linkable to South African national vital registration data. Our results demonstrate that while IPWs and proper imputation procedures can be easily constructed from additional outcome ascertainment to obtain valid overall estimates, neglecting non-ignorable LTFU can result in substantial bias. We believe the proposed estimators are readily applicable to a growing number of studies where LTFU is appreciable, but additional outcome data are available through linkage or surveys of patients LTFU. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Obesity and overweight as a risk factor for pneumonia in polytrauma patients: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND Obesity is a growing problem in western societies. The aim of this retrospective cohort study was to determine the association between the overweight and obese polytrauma patients and pneumonia after injury. METHODS A total of 628 patients with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) of 16 or greater and 16 years or older were included in this retrospective study. The sample was subdivided into three groups as follows: body mass index (BMI) of less than 25 kg/m2; BMI of 25 kg/m2 to 30 kg/m2; and BMI more than 30 kg/m2. The Murray score was assessed at admission and at its maximum during hospitalization to determine pulmonary problems. Pneumonia was defined as bacteriologically positive sputum with appropriate radiologic and laboratory changes (C-reactive protein and interleukin 6). Data are given as mean ± SEM. One-way analysis of variance and the Kruskal-Wallis test were used for the analyses, and the significance level was set at p < 0.05; Bonferroni-Dunn test was performed as post hoc analysis. RESULTS The Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) score for the thorax was 3.2 ± 0.1 in the group with a BMI of less than 25 kg/m2, 3.3 ± 0.1 in the group with a BMI of 25 kg/m2 to 30 kg/m2, and 2.8 ± 0.2 in the group with BMI of more than 30 kg/m2 (p = 0.044). The Murray score at admission was elevated with increasing BMI (0.8 ± 0.8 for BMI < 25 kg/m2, 0.9 ± 0.9 for BMI 25–30 kg/m2, and 1.0 ± 0.8 for BMI > 30 kg/m2; p = 0.137); the maximum Murray score during hospitalization revealed significant differences (1.2 ± 0.9 for BMI < 25 kg/m2, 1.6 ± 1.0 for BMI 25–30 kg/m2, and 1.5 ± 0.9 for BMI > 30 kg/m2; p < 0.001). The incidence of pneumonia also increased with increasing BMI (1.6% for BMI < 25 kg/m2, 2.0% for BMI 25–30 kg/m2, and 3.1% for BMI > 30 kg/m2; p = 0.044). CONCLUSION Obesity leads to an increased incidence of pneumonia in a polytrauma situation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Prognostic/epidemiologic study, level IV.

The influence of body mass index on injury pattern in polytrauma: thorax as the main source of complications

Background: Obesity is a growing problem in industrial nations. The aim of this study was to determine the relationship between the body mass index (BMI) and the pattern of injury after polytrauma. Methods: This retrospective study included 651 patients with an injury severity score (ISS) ≥16 and aged ≥16 years who were subdivided into three groups: BMI < 25 kg/m2, BMI 25–30 kg/m2, and BMI > 30 kg/m2. The Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) was used to quantify the injuries in the different anatomical regions. The Murray score was assessed at admission and at its maximum during hospitalization to evaluate pulmonary problems. Data are presented as means ± standard errors of the means. One way analysis of variance, χ2 test and Kruskal-Wallis test were used for the analyses and the significance level was set at p < 0.05. Results: The AIS of the thorax was 3.2 ± 0.1 in the BMI < 25 kg/m2 group, 3.3 ± 0.1 in the BMI 25–30 kg/m2 group, and 2.8 ± 0.2 in the BMI > 30 kg/m2 group; p < 0.05. The Murray score at admission increased significantly with increasing BMI (0.8 ± 0.8 for BMI < 25 kg/m2, 0.9 ± 0.9 for BMI 25–30 kg/m2, and 1.0 ± 0.8 for BMI > 30 kg/m2; p < 0.05) as was the maximum Murray score during hospitalization (1.2 ± 0.9 for BMI < 25 kg/m2, 1.6 ± 1.0 for BMI 25–30 kg/m2, and 1.5 ± 0.9 for BMI > 30 kg/m2; p < 0.001). The number of ventilator days was also elevated significantly with increasing BMI (5.9 ± 0.4 for BMI < 25 kg/m2, 7.7 ± 0.8 for BMI 25–30 kg/m2, and 7.9 ± 1.6 for BMI > 30 kg/m2; p < 0.05). Conclusion: Overweight and obesity lead to a higher incidence of thoracic trauma in a polytrauma situation and may additionally handicap ventilation in an obstructive manner.

Epidemiology of Brucellosis and Q Fever in Linked Human and Animal Populations in Northern Togo

BACKGROUND: Although brucellosis (Brucella spp.) and Q Fever (Coxiella burnetii) are zoonoses of global importance, very little high quality data are available from West Africa. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A serosurvey was conducted in Togo's main livestock-raising zone in 2011 in 25 randomly selected villages, including 683 people, 596 cattle, 465 sheep and 221 goats. Additionally, 464 transhumant cattle from Burkina Faso were sampled in 2012. The serological analyses performed were the Rose Bengal Test and ELISA for brucellosis and ELISA and the immunofluorescence assay (IFA) for Q Fever Brucellosis did not appear to pose a major human health problem in the study zone, with only 7 seropositive participants. B. abortus was isolated from 3 bovine hygroma samples, and is likely to be the predominant circulating strain. This may explain the observed seropositivity amongst village cattle (9.2%, 95%CI:4.3-18.6%) and transhumant cattle (7.3%, 95%CI:3.5-14.7%), with an absence of seropositive small ruminants. Exposure of livestock and people to C. burnetii was common, potentially influenced by cultural factors. People of Fulani ethnicity had greater livestock contact and a significantly higher seroprevalence than other ethnic groups (Fulani: 45.5%, 95%CI:37.7-53.6%; non-Fulani: 27.1%, 95%CI:20.6-34.7%). Appropriate diagnostic test cut-off values in endemic settings requires further investigation. Both brucellosis and Q Fever appeared to impact on livestock production. Seropositive cows were more likely to have aborted a foetus during the previous year than seronegative cows, when adjusted for age. This odds was 3.8 times higher (95%CI: 1.2-12.1) for brucellosis and 6.7 times higher (95%CI: 1.3-34.8) for Q Fever. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first epidemiological study of zoonoses in Togo in linked human and animal populations, providing much needed data for West Africa. Exposure to Brucella and C. burnetii is common but further research is needed into the clinical and economic impact.

Factors influencing the onset and progression of pododermatitis in captive flamingos (Phoenicopteridae).

Pododermatitis is a worldwide problem in captive flamingos. We performed an evaluation of different influence factors (age, sex, weight, origin, breeding status) and a comparison of foot lesions between several zoological institutions and the feet of free-ranging Greater flamingos (Phoenicopterus roseus). A scoring system was used to determine the prevalence and types of lesions and severity. Cracks and nodules developed as early as 3 months of age and papillomatous growths as early as 6 to 7 months of age in captivity. Nodules with ulceration occurred significantly more often in birds older than 31 years and heavier than 4 kg. The comparison of different institutions revealed that birds kept in enclosures with natural-floored water ponds had significantly less severe lesions than birds kept in concrete water ponds. None of the free-ranging flamingos, which live on a muddy underground, showed any lesion. This study demonstrates that flooring, weight and age are important in the onset and progression of pododermatitis in flamingos.

A nonlinear QCT-based finite element model validation study for the human femur tested in two configurations in vitro

Purpose Femoral fracture is a common medical problem in osteoporotic individuals. Bone mineral density (BMD) is the gold standard measure to evaluate fracture risk in vivo. Quantitative computed tomography (QCT)-based homogenized voxel finite element (hvFE) models have been proved to be more accurate predictors of femoral strength than BMD by adding geometrical and material properties. The aim of this study was to evaluate the ability of hvFE models in predicting femoral stiffness, strength and failure location for a large number of pairs of human femora tested in two different loading scenarios. Methods Thirty-six pairs of femora were scanned with QCT and total proximal BMD and BMC were evaluated. For each pair, one femur was positioned in one-legged stance configuration (STANCE) and the other in a sideways configuration (SIDE). Nonlinear hvFE models were generated from QCT images by reproducing the same loading configurations imposed in the experiments. For experiments and models, the structural properties (stiffness and ultimate load), the failure location and the motion of the femoral head were computed and compared. Results In both configurations, hvFE models predicted both stiffness (R2=0.82 for STANCE and R2=0.74 for SIDE) and femoral ultimate load (R2=0.80 for STANCE and R2=0.85 for SIDE) better than BMD and BMC. Moreover, the models predicted qualitatively well the failure location (66% of cases) and the motion of the femoral head. Conclusions The subject specific QCT-based nonlinear hvFE model cannot only predict femoral apparent mechanical properties better than densitometric measures, but can additionally provide useful qualitative information about failure location.

Development of an ex vivo protocol to model bone fracture in laying hens resulting from collisions.

Fractures of the keel bone, a bone extending ventrally from the sternum, are a serious health and welfare problem in free range laying hens. Recent findings suggest that a major cause of keel damage within extensive systems is collisions with internal housing structures, though investigative efforts have been hindered by difficulties in examining mechanisms and likely influencing factors at the moment of fracture. The objectives of this study were to develop an ex vivo impact protocol to model bone fracture in hens caused by collision, to assess impact and bird-related factors influencing fracture occurrence and severity, and to identify correlations of mechanical and structural properties between different skeletal sites. We induced keel bone fractures in euthanized hens using a drop-weight impact tester able to generate a range of impact energies, producing fractures that replicate those commonly found in commercial settings. The results demonstrated that impact energies of a similar order to those expected in normal housing were able to produce fractures, and that greater collision energies resulted in an increased likelihood of fractures and of greater severity. Relationships were also seen with keel's lateral surface bone mineral density, and the peak reactive force (strength) at the base of the manubrial spine. Correlations were also identified between the keel and long bones with respect to both strength and bone mineral density. This is the first study able to relate impact and bone characteristics with keel bone fracture at the moment of collision. Greater understanding of these relationships will provide means to reduce levels of breakage and severity in commercial systems.

Selektive Weiterbildungschancen und Exklusion von Arbeitslosen in Ostdeutschland

Seit dem Zusammenbruch der DDR und ihrer Integration in das Institutionengefüge der Bundesrepublik ist vor allem die Massen- und Langzeitarbeitslosigkeit ein gravierendes soziales Problem in Ostdeutschland (Buttler 1994). Ihre Persistenz hängt neben dem erzwungenen wirtschaftlichen und berufsstrukturellen Wandel und umfassenden Abbau von Arbeitsplätzen auch eng mit Schließungsprozessen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt zusammen, die in systematischer Weise bestimmte Gruppen von Erwerbspersonen benachteiligen (Mayer/Diewald/Solga 1996). Während in der DDR Arbeitslosigkeitsrisiken seit der späten Nachkriegszeit weitgehend unbekannt waren, liegt nunmehr für die noch nicht endgültig aus dem Erwerbsleben ausgeschiedenen Arbeitnehmer ein Großteil ihrer Anstrengungen im Berufsverlauf darin, nicht arbeitslos zu werden. Andererseits versuchen Arbeitslose trotz der ungünstigen Wirtschaftsentwicklung so rasch wie möglich in den Arbeitsmarkt zurückzukehren. Dies belegen sowohl die ungebrochen hohe Erwerbsorientierung ostdeutscher Männer und Frauen als auch die individuellen Weiterbildungsanstrengungen von Arbeitslosen.

Harmonic Oscillator in a 1D or 2D Cavity with General Perfectly Reflecting Walls

We investigate the simple harmonic oscillator in a 1-d box, and the 2-d isotropic harmonic oscillator problem in a circular cavity with perfectly reflecting boundary conditions. The energy spectrum has been calculated as a function of the self-adjoint extension parameter. For sufficiently negative values of the self-adjoint extension parameter, there are bound states localized at the wall of the box or the cavity that resonate with the standard bound states of the simple harmonic oscillator or the isotropic oscillator. A free particle in a circular cavity has been studied for the sake of comparison. This work represents an application of the recent generalization of the Heisenberg uncertainty relation related to the theory of self-adjoint extensions in a finite volume.

Reputation Formation and the Evolution of Cooperation in Anonymous Online Markets

Theoretical propositions stressing the importance of trust, reciprocity, and reputation for cooperation in social exchange relations are deeply rooted in classical sociological thought. Today’s online markets provide a unique opportunity to test these theories using unobtrusive data. Our study investigates the mechanisms promoting cooperation in an online-auction market where most transactions can be conceived as one-time-only exchanges. We first give a systematic account of the theoretical arguments explaining the process of cooperative transactions. Then, using a large dataset comprising 14,627 mobile phone auctions and 339,517 DVD auctions, we test key hypotheses about the effects of traders’ reputations on auction outcomes and traders’ motives for leaving feedback. Our statistical analyses show that sellers with better reputations have higher sales and obtain higher prices. Furthermore, we observe a high rate of participation in the feedback system, which is largely consistent with strong reciprocity—a predisposition to unconditionally reward (or punish) one’s interaction partner’s cooperation (or defection)—and altruism—a predisposition to increase one’s own utility by elevating an interaction partner’s utility. Our study demonstrates how strong reciprocity and altruism can mitigate the free-rider problem in the feedback system to create reputational incentives for mutually beneficial online trade.

Synchronization and desynchronization in epilepsy: controversies and hypotheses

Epilepsy has been historically seen as a functional brain disorder associated with excessive synchronization of large neuronal populations leading to a hypersynchronous state. Recent evidence showed that epileptiform phenomena, particularly seizures, result from complex interactions between neuronal networks characterized by heterogeneity of neuronal firing and dynamical evolution of synchronization. Desynchronization is often observed preceding seizures or during their early stages; in contrast, high levels of synchronization observed towards the end of seizures may facilitate termination. In this review we discuss cellular and network mechanisms responsible for such complex changes in synchronization. Recent work has identified cell-type-specific inhibitory and excitatory interactions, the dichotomy between neuronal firing and the non-local measurement of local field potentials distant to that firing, and the reflection of the neuronal dark matter problem in non-firing neurons active in seizures. These recent advances have challenged long-established views and are leading to a more rigorous and realistic understanding of the pathophysiology of epilepsy.

Genotype-specific risk factors for Staphylococcus aureus in Swiss dairy herds with an elevated yield-corrected herd somatic cell count

Bovine mastitis is a frequent problem in Swiss dairy herds. One of the main pathogens causing significant economic loss is Staphylococcus aureus. Various Staph. aureus genotypes with different biological properties have been described. Genotype B (GTB) of Staph. aureus was identified as the most contagious and one of the most prevalent strains in Switzerland. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors associated with the herd-level presence of Staph. aureus GTB and Staph. aureus non-GTB in Swiss dairy herds with an elevated yield-corrected herd somatic cell count (YCHSCC). One hundred dairy herds with a mean YCHSCC between 200,000 and 300,000cells/mL in 2010 were recruited and each farm was visited once during milking. A standardized protocol investigating demography, mastitis management, cow husbandry, milking system, and milking routine was completed during the visit. A bulk tank milk (BTM) sample was analyzed by real-time PCR for the presence of Staph. aureus GTB to classify the herds into 2 groups: Staph. aureus GTB-positive and Staph. aureus GTB-negative. Moreover, quarter milk samples were aseptically collected for bacteriological culture from cows with a somatic cell count ≥150,000cells/mL on the last test-day before the visit. The culture results allowed us to allocate the Staph. aureus GTB-negative farms to Staph. aureus non-GTB and Staph. aureus-free groups. Multivariable multinomial logistic regression models were built to identify risk factors associated with the herd-level presence of Staph. aureus GTB and Staph. aureus non-GTB. The prevalence of Staph. aureus GTB herds was 16% (n=16), whereas that of Staph. aureus non-GTB herds was 38% (n=38). Herds that sent lactating cows to seasonal communal pastures had significantly higher odds of being infected with Staph. aureus GTB (odds ratio: 10.2, 95% CI: 1.9-56.6), compared with herds without communal pasturing. Herds that purchased heifers had significantly higher odds of being infected with Staph. aureus GTB (rather than Staph. aureus non-GTB) compared with herds without purchase of heifers. Furthermore, herds that did not use udder ointment as supportive therapy for acute mastitis had significantly higher odds of being infected with Staph. aureus GTB (odds ratio: 8.5, 95% CI: 1.6-58.4) or Staph. aureus non-GTB (odds ratio: 6.1, 95% CI: 1.3-27.8) than herds that used udder ointment occasionally or regularly. Herds in which the milker performed unrelated activities during milking had significantly higher odds of being infected with Staph. aureus GTB (rather than Staph. aureus non-GTB) compared with herds in which the milker did not perform unrelated activities at milking. Awareness of 4 potential risk factors identified in this study guides implementation of intervention strategies to improve udder health in both Staph. aureus GTB and Staph. aureus non-GTB herds.

Mastitis in dairy heifers: Prevalence and risk factors

Poor udder health represents a serious problem in dairy production and has been investigated intensively, but heifers generally have not been the main focus of mastitis control. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prevalence, risk factors and consequences of heifer mastitis in Switzerland. The study included 166,518 heifers of different breeds (Swiss Red Pied, Swiss Brown Cattle and Holstein). Monthly somatic cell counts (SCCs) provided by the main dairy breeding organisations in Switzerland were monitored for 3 years; the prevalence of subclinical mastitis (SCM) was determined on the basis of SCCs ≥100,000 cells/mL at the first test date. The probability of having SCM at the first test date during lactation was modelled using logistic regression. Analysed factors included data for the genetic background, morphological traits, geographical region, season of parturition and milk composition. The overall prevalence of SCM in heifers during the period from 2006 to 2010 was 20.6%. Higher frequencies of SCM were present in heifers of the Holstein breed (odds ratio, OR, 1.62), heifers with high fat:protein ratios (OR 1.97) and heifers with low milk urea concentrations combined with high milk protein concentrations (OR 3.97). Traits associated with a low risk of SCM were high set udders, high overall breeding values and low milk breeding values. Heifers with SCM on the first test day had a higher risk of either developing chronic mastitis or leaving the herd prematurely.

Opioid maintenance therapy in Switzerland: an overview of the Swiss IMPROVE study

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Switzerland’s drug policy model has always been unique and progressive, but there is a Need to reassess this system in a rapidly changing world. The IMPROVE study was conducted to gain understanding of the attitudes and beliefs towards opioid maintenance therapy (OMT) in Switzerland with regards to quality and Access to treatment. To obtain a “real-world” view on OMT, the study approached its goals from two different angles: from the perspectives of the OMT patients and of the physicians who treat patients with maintenance therapy. The IMPROVE study collected a large body of data on OMT in Switzerland. This paper presents a small subset of the dataset, focusing on the research design and methodology, the profile of the participants and the responses to several key questions addressed by the questionnaires. METHODS: IMPROVE was an observational, questionnaire-based cross-sectional study on OMT conducted in Switzerland. Respondents consisted of OMT patients and treating physicians from various regions of the country. Data were collected using questionnaires in German and French. Physicians were interviewed by phone with a computer-based questionnaire. Patients self-completed a paper-based questionnaire at the physicians’ Offices or OMT treatment centres. RESULTS: A total of 200 physicians and 207 patients participated in the study. Liquid methadone and methadone tablets or capsules were the medications most commonly prescribed by physicians (60% and 20% of patient load, respectively) whereas buprenorphine use was less frequent. Patients (88%) and physicians (83%) were generally satisfied with the OMT currently offered. The current political framework and lack of training or information were cited as determining factors that deter physicians from engaging in OMT. About 31% of OMT physicians interviewed were ≥60 years old, indicating an ageing population. Diversion and misuse were considered a significant problem in Switzerland by 45% of the physicians. CONCLUSION: The subset of IMPROVE data presented gives a present-day, real-life overview of the OMT landscape in Switzerland. It represents a valuable resource for policy makers, key opinion leaders and drug addiction researchers and will be a useful basis for improving the current Swiss OMT model.

Head movement synchrony in social interactions of patients with schizophrenia indicates symptoms, cognition and social functioning

Background: Disturbed interpersonal communication is a core problem in schizophrenia. Patients with schizophrenia often appear disconnected and "out of sync" when interacting with others. This may involve perception, cognition, motor behavior, and nonverbal expressiveness. Although well-known from clinical observation, mainstream research has neglected this area. Corresponding theoretical concepts, statistical methods, and assessment were missing. In recent research, however, it has been shown that objective, video-based measures of nonverbal behavior can be used to reliably quantify nonverbal behavior in schizophrenia. Newly developed algorithms allow for a calculation of movement synchrony. We found that the objective amount of movement of patients with schizophrenia during social interactions was closely related to the symptom profiles of these patients (Kupper et al., 2010). In addition and above the mere amount of movement, the degree of synchrony between patients and healthy interactants may be indicative of various problems in the domain of interpersonal communication and social cognition. Methods: Based on our earlier study, head movement synchrony was assessed objectively (using Motion Energy Analysis, MEA) in 378 brief, videotaped role-play scenes involving 27 stabilized outpatients diagnosed with paranoid-type schizophrenia. Results: Lower head movement synchrony was indicative of symptoms (negative symptoms, but also of conceptual disorganization and lack of insight), verbal memory, patients’ self-evaluation of competence, and social functioning. Many of these relationships remained significant even when corrected for the amount of movement of the patients. Conclusion: The results suggest that nonverbal synchrony may be an objective and sensitive indicator of the severity of symptoms, cognition and social functioning.