Discontinuous Galerkin finite element approximation of quasilinear elliptic boundary value problems II: Strongly monotone quasi-Newtonian flows

In this article, we develop the a priori and a posteriori error analysis of hp-version interior penalty discontinuous Galerkin finite element methods for strongly monotone quasi-Newtonian fluid flows in a bounded Lipschitz domain Ω ⊂ ℝd, d = 2, 3. In the latter case, computable upper and lower bounds on the error are derived in terms of a natural energy norm, which are explicit in the local mesh size and local polynomial degree of the approximating finite element method. A series of numerical experiments illustrate the performance of the proposed a posteriori error indicators within an automatic hp-adaptive refinement algorithm.

Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis

The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon.

Unterrichtliche Konzepte individueller Lernförderung. Theoretische Impulse für die individualisierte und bildungsstandardbezogene Lernförderung auf Mikro-Ebene: ein Lehr-Lern-Modell zur Ko-Konstruktion im Unterricht

Im vorliegenden Beitrag wird versucht, den [Lehr-Lern-Prozess] in Hinblick auf individualisierten Unterricht genauer zu klären und auf die aktuelle Diskussion zur wirksamen Implementierung von Bildungsstandards zu beziehen. Dabei wird ein lehr-lerntheoretisches Modell dargestellt, das Orientierungshilfen für die lern-wirksame Gestaltung von unterrichtlichen Prozessen bieten soll. Es wird im Weiteren auf die folgenden Qualitätsmerkmale guten Unterrichts bezogen: das Fördern einer positiven Lernatmosphäre, das Herstellen einer (bildungsstandardbezogenen) Zielorientierung und die Berücksichtigung von Lernvoraussetzungen durch pädagogische Diagnostik, die mit aufgabenbasierten und protokollierten Lernförderungskreisläufen gekoppelt ist. Abschließend werden Anwendungsmöglichkeiten dieses Modells insbesondere in der Unterrichtsgestaltung und -evaluation kurz aufgezeigt und kritisch diskutiert.

Using micropower impulse radar technology to screen for pneumothorax: an international bi-institutional study. Corrigendum

In an article in the December 2012 issue of The Journal of Trauma and Acute Care Surgery, several author names were misprinted.

Gibbs point process approximation: Total variation bounds using Stein's method

We obtain upper bounds for the total variation distance between the distributions of two Gibbs point processes in a very general setting. Applications are provided to various well-known processes and settings from spatial statistics and statistical physics, including the comparison of two Lennard-Jones processes, hard core approximation of an area interaction process and the approximation of lattice processes by a continuous Gibbs process. Our proof of the main results is based on Stein's method. We construct an explicit coupling between two spatial birth-death processes to obtain Stein factors, and employ the Georgii-Nguyen-Zessin equation for the total bound.

Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors in clinical trials with historical control information.

Historical information is always relevant for clinical trial design. Additionally, if incorporated in the analysis of a new trial, historical data allow to reduce the number of subjects. This decreases costs and trial duration, facilitates recruitment, and may be more ethical. Yet, under prior-data conflict, a too optimistic use of historical data may be inappropriate. We address this challenge by deriving a Bayesian meta-analytic-predictive prior from historical data, which is then combined with the new data. This prospective approach is equivalent to a meta-analytic-combined analysis of historical and new data if parameters are exchangeable across trials. The prospective Bayesian version requires a good approximation of the meta-analytic-predictive prior, which is not available analytically. We propose two- or three-component mixtures of standard priors, which allow for good approximations and, for the one-parameter exponential family, straightforward posterior calculations. Moreover, since one of the mixture components is usually vague, mixture priors will often be heavy-tailed and therefore robust. Further robustness and a more rapid reaction to prior-data conflicts can be achieved by adding an extra weakly-informative mixture component. Use of historical prior information is particularly attractive for adaptive trials, as the randomization ratio can then be changed in case of prior-data conflict. Both frequentist operating characteristics and posterior summaries for various data scenarios show that these designs have desirable properties. We illustrate the methodology for a phase II proof-of-concept trial with historical controls from four studies. Robust meta-analytic-predictive priors alleviate prior-data conflicts ' they should encourage better and more frequent use of historical data in clinical trials.

A first look at maximally twisted mass lattice QCD calculations at the physical point

In this contribution, a first look at simulations using maximally twisted mass Wilson fermions at the physical point is presented. A lattice action including clover and twisted mass terms is presented and the Monte Carlo histories of one run with two mass-degenerate flavours at a single lattice spacing are shown. Measurements from the light and heavy-light pseudoscalar sectors are compared to previous Nf = 2 results and their phenomenological values. Finally, the strategy for extending simulations to Nf = 2+1+1 is outlined.