Global change revealed by palaeolimnological records from remote lakes: a review

Over recent decades, palaeolimnological records from remote sites have provided convincing evidence for the onset and development of several facets of global environmental change. Remote lakes, defined here as those occurring in high latitude or high altitude regions, have the advantage of not being overprinted by local anthropogenic processes. As such, many of these sites record broad-scale environmental changes, frequently driven by regime shifts in the Earth system. Here, we review a selection of studies from North America and Europe and discuss their broader implications. The history of investigation has evolved synchronously with the scope and awareness of environmental problems. An initial focus on acid deposition switched to metal and other types of pollutants, then climate change and eventually to atmospheric deposition-fertilising effects. However, none of these topics is independent of the other, and all of them affect ecosystem function and biodiversity in profound ways. Currently, remote lake palaeolimnology is developing unique datasets for each region investigated that benchmark current trends with respect to past, purely natural variability in lake systems. Fostering conceptual and methodological bridges with other environmental disciplines will upturn contribution of remote lake palaeolimnology in solving existing and emerging questions in global change science and planetary stewardship.

Global biomass burning: a synthesis and review of Holocene paleofire records and their controls

We synthesize existing sedimentary charcoal records to reconstruct Holocene fire history at regional, continental and global scales. The reconstructions are compared with the two potential controls of burning at these broad scales – changes in climate and human activities – to assess their relative importance on trends in biomass burning. Here we consider several hypotheses that have been advanced to explain the Holocene record of fire, including climate, human activities and synergies between the two. Our results suggest that 1) episodes of high fire activity were relatively common in the early Holocene and were consistent with climate changes despite low global temperatures and low levels of biomass burning globally; 2) there is little evidence from the paleofire record to support the Early Anthropocene Hypothesis of human modification of the global carbon cycle; 3) there was a nearly-global increase in fire activity from 3 to 2 ka that is difficult to explain with either climate or humans, but the widespread and synchronous nature of the increase suggests at least a partial climate forcing; and 4) burning during the past century generally decreased but was spatially variable; it declined sharply in many areas, but there were also large increases (e.g., Australia and parts of Europe). Our analysis does not exclude an important role for human activities on global biomass burning during the Holocene, but instead provides evidence for a pervasive influence of climate across multiple spatial and temporal scales.

Pollen percentage thresholds of Abies alba based on 13-year annual records of pollen deposition in modified Tauber traps: perspectives of application to fossil situations

Abies alba (fir), a submontane tree from Central European mountains and uplands, is of special interest for palaeoecological and palaeoclimate interpretations due to its sensitivity to air and soil humidity. Its present distribution limit in the uplands of SE Poland is still a matter of debate. In the Holocene fir expanded to Poland very late, but early fir populations are supposed to occur in the Šumava Mts (Czech Republic). The study aims: to estimate pollen thresholds for fir presence/absence in Bohemia (Czech Republic) and Poland on the basis of modified Tauber pollen traps; to use these thresholds for tracing fir presence in two pollen diagrams from Poland (Słone and Bezedna lakes) in the border zone between the Roztocze region (with fir forest stands today) and Polesie (where fir has never played an important role); and to investigate how the percentage presence/absence threshold can be used to trace the occurrence and abundance of fir trees in the Šumava Mts based on the pollen diagrams of Rokytecká slat' and Mrtvý luh. The fir pollen thresholds estimated in terms of PAR (pollen accumulation rates or pollen influx) range from 843 (grains cm− 2 year− 1) (Roztocze) to 61 (Krkonoše) and 49 (Šumava). Percentage thresholds range from 0.3% in Krkonoše where fir trees are not present within 4 km to 22% in fir-dominated woodland of the Roztocze, providing evidence of strong underrepresentation of fir in the pollen deposition. Application of these percentage thresholds to the Słone and Bezedna pollen diagrams indicates that occurrence of fir in the region is possible from 3.5 cal ky BP onwards, though the evidence is not decisive. In the Šumava, a low representation of fir pollen (1–2%) reflecting presence of scattered fir trees was detected as early as ca. 7.0 cal ky BP.

Palaeoceanographic changes in the North Atlantic during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MIS 31-19) as inferred from planktonic foraminiferal and calcium carbonate records

Marine sediments from the Integrated Ocean Drilling Project (IODP) Site U1314 (56.36°N, 27.88°W), in the subpolar North Atlantic, were studied for their planktonic foraminifera, calcium carbonate content, and Neogloboqudrina pachyderma sinistral (sin.) δ13C records in order to reconstruct surface and intermediate conditions in this region during the Mid-Pleistocene Transition (MPT). Variations in the palaeoceanography and regional dynamics of the Arctic Front were estimated by comparing CaCO3 content, planktonic foraminiferal species abundances, carbon isotopes and ice-rafted debris (IRD) data from Site U1314 with published data from other North Atlantic sites. Site U1314 exhibited high abundances of the polar planktonic foraminifera N. pachyderma sin. and low CaCO3 content until Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 26, indicating a relatively southeastward position of the Arctic Front (AF) and penetration of colder and low-salinity surface arctic water-masses. Changing conditions after MIS 25, with oscillations in the position of the AF, caused an increase in the northward export of the warmer North Atlantic Current (NAC), indicated by greater abundances of non-polar planktonic foraminifera and higher CaCO3. The N. pachyderma sin. δ13C data indicate good ventilation of the upper part of the intermediate water layer in the eastern North Atlantic during both glacial and interglacial stages, except during Terminations 24/23, 22/21 and 20/1. In addition, for N. pachyderma (sin.) we distinguished two morphotypes: non-encrusted and heavily encrusted test. Results indicate that increases in the encrusted morphotype and lower planktonic foraminiferal diversity are related to the intensification of glacial conditions (lower sea-surface temperatures, sea-ice formation) during MIS 22 and 20.

Differences between recent and historical records of upperspecies limits in the northern European Alps

Are there differences in historical and recent upper range limits of vascular plants and are such differences more pronounced in individual species groups? The limits of 1103 plants of the Northern Alps are compared to range limits in the mid-19th century. The comparison is based on two surveys. The first survey was conducted by Otto Sendtner in 1848–1853, the second in 1991–2008 during a habitat inventory. To our knowledge this is the first comparative studies reaching back to the end of the “Little Ice Age” and comprising an almost entire regional flora covering the complete range of habitats. During the recent survey, most species were found at higher elevations. Even though the differences fit well with the expected shifts due to climate warming we cannot exclude effects of sampling bias. However, we assume that the relative differences between species groups can be safely interpreted. The differences in upper limits between both surveys were significantly larger among forest species. The most important reason is probably discontinued pasture and mowing, which may have amplified possible warming effects. Nitrogen deposits may have contributed to this effect by placing competitive species in a more advantageous position.

Data quality of animal health records on Swiss dairy farms

High-quality data are essential for veterinary surveillance systems, and their quality can be affected by the source and the method of collection. Data recorded on farms could provide detailed information about the health of a population of animals, but the accuracy of the data recorded by farmers is uncertain. The aims of this study were to evaluate the quality of the data on animal health recorded on 97 Swiss dairy farms, to compare the quality of the data obtained by different recording systems, and to obtain baseline data on the health of the animals on the 97 farms. Data on animal health were collected from the farms for a year. Their quality was evaluated by assessing the completeness and accuracy of the recorded information, and by comparing farmers' and veterinarians' records. The quality of the data provided by the farmers was satisfactory, although electronic recording systems made it easier to trace the animals treated. The farmers tended to record more health-related events than the veterinarians, although this varied with the event considered, and some events were recorded only by the veterinarians. The farmers' attitude towards data collection was positive. Factors such as motivation, feedback, training, and simplicity and standardisation of data collection were important because they influenced the quality of the data.

Are great Cascadia earthquakes recorded in the sedimentary records from small forearc lakes?

Here we investigate sedimentary records from four small inland lakes located in the southern Cascadia forearc region for evidence of earthquakes. Three of these lakes are in the Klamath Mountains near the Oregon–California border, and one is in the central Oregon Coast range. The sedimentary sequences recovered from these lakes are composed of normal lake sediment interbedded with disturbance event layers. The thickest of these layers are graded, and appear to be turbidites or linked debrites (turbidites with a basal debris-flow deposit), suggesting rapid deposition. Variations in particle size and organic content of these layers are reflected in the density and magnetic susceptibility data. The frequency and timing of these events, based on radiocarbon ages from detrital organics, is similar to the offshore seismogenic turbidite record from trench and slope basin cores along the Cascadia margin. Stratigraphic correlation of these anomalous deposits based on radiocarbon ages, down-core density, and magnetic susceptibility data between lake and offshore records suggest synchronous triggering. The areal extent and multiple depositional environments over which these events appear to correlate suggest that these deposits were most likely caused by shaking during great Cascadia earthquakes.

Net accumulation rates derived from ice core stable isotope records of Pío XI glacier, Southern Patagonia Icefield

Pío XI, the largest glacier of the Southern Patagonia Icefield, reached its neoglacial maximum extent in 1994 and is one of the few glaciers in that area which is not retreating. In view of the recent warming it is important to understand glacier responses to climate changes. Due to its remoteness and the harsh conditions in Patagonia, no systematic mass balance studies have been performed. In this study we derived net accumulation rates for the period 2000–2006 from a 50 m (33.2 4 m weq) ice core collected in the accumulation area of Pío XI (2600 m a.s.l., 49°16'40"S, 73°21'14"W). Borehole temperatures indicate near temperate ice, but the average melt percent is only 16 ± 14%. Records of stable isotopes are well preserved and were used for identification of annual layers. Net accumulation rates range from 3.4–7.1 water equivalent (m weq) with an average of 5.8 m weq, comparable to precipitation amounts at the Chilean coast, but not as high as expected for the Icefield. Ice core stable isotope data correlate well with upper air temperatures and may be used as temperature proxy.

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

High-resolution mineral dust and sea ice proxy records from the Talos Dome ice core

In this study we report on new non-sea salt calcium (nssCa2+, mineral dust proxy) and sea salt sodium (ssNa+, sea ice proxy) records along the East Antarctic Talos Dome deep ice core in centennial resolution reaching back 150 thousand years (ka) before present. During glacial conditions nssCa2+ fluxes in Talos Dome are strongly related to temperature as has been observed before in other deep Antarctic ice core records, and has been associated with synchronous changes in the main source region (southern South America) during climate variations in the last glacial. However, during warmer climate conditions Talos Dome mineral dust input is clearly elevated compared to other records mainly due to the contribution of additional local dust sources in the Ross Sea area. Based on a simple transport model, we compare nssCa2+ fluxes of different East Antarctic ice cores. From this multi-site comparison we conclude that changes in transport efficiency or atmospheric lifetime of dust particles do have a minor effect compared to source strength changes on the large-scale concentration changes observed in Antarctic ice cores during climate variations of the past 150 ka. Our transport model applied on ice core data is further validated by climate model data. The availability of multiple East Antarctic nssCa2+ records also allows for a revision of a former estimate on the atmospheric CO2 sensitivity to reduced dust induced iron fertilisation in the Southern Ocean during the transition from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Holocene (T1). While a former estimate based on the EPICA Dome C (EDC) record only suggested 20 ppm, we find that reduced dust induced iron fertilisation in the Southern Ocean may be responsible for up to 40 ppm of the total atmospheric CO2 increase during T1. During the last interglacial, ssNa+ levels of EDC and EPICA Dronning Maud Land (EDML) are only half of the Holocene levels, in line with higher temperatures during that period, indicating much reduced sea ice extent in the Atlantic as well as the Indian Ocean sector of the Southern Ocean. In contrast, Holocene ssNa+ flux in Talos Dome is about the same as during the last interglacial, indicating that there was similar ice cover present in the Ross Sea area during MIS 5.5 as during the Holocene.

A new method to facilitate valid and consistent grading cardiac events in childhood cancer survivors using medical records

BACKGROUND Cardiac events (CEs) are among the most serious late effects following childhood cancer treatment. To establish accurate risk estimates for the occurrence of CEs it is essential that they are graded in a valid and consistent manner, especially for international studies. We therefore developed a data-extraction form and a set of flowcharts to grade CEs and tested the validity and consistency of this approach in a series of patients. METHODS The Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 3.0 and 4.0 were used to define the CEs. Forty patients were randomly selected from a cohort of 72 subjects with known CEs that had been graded by a physician for an earlier study. To establish whether the new method was valid for appropriate grading, a non-physician graded the CEs by using the new method. To evaluate consistency of the grading, the same charts were graded again by two other non-physicians, one with receiving brief introduction and one with receiving extensive training on the new method. We calculated weighted Kappa statistics to quantify inter-observer agreement. RESULTS The inter-observer agreement was 0.92 (95% CI 0.80-1.00) for validity, and 0.88 (0.79-0.98) and 0.99 (0.96-1.00) for consistency with the outcome assessors who had the brief introduction and the extensive training, respectively. CONCLUSIONS The newly developed standardized method to grade CEs using data from medical records has shown excellent validity and consistency. The study showed that the method can be correctly applied by researchers without a medical background, provided that they receive adequate training.