A critical evaluation of secondary cancer risk models applied to Monte Carlo dose distributions of 2-dimensional, 3-dimensional conformal and hybrid intensity-modulated radiation therapy for breast cancer

The comparison of radiotherapy techniques regarding secondary cancer risk has yielded contradictory results possibly stemming from the many different approaches used to estimate risk. The purpose of this study was to make a comprehensive evaluation of different available risk models applied to detailed whole-body dose distributions computed by Monte Carlo for various breast radiotherapy techniques including conventional open tangents, 3D conformal wedged tangents and hybrid intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). First, organ-specific linear risk models developed by the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) and the Biological Effects of Ionizing Radiation (BEIR) VII committee were applied to mean doses for remote organs only and all solid organs. Then, different general non-linear risk models were applied to the whole body dose distribution. Finally, organ-specific non-linear risk models for the lung and breast were used to assess the secondary cancer risk for these two specific organs. A total of 32 different calculated absolute risks resulted in a broad range of values (between 0.1% and 48.5%) underlying the large uncertainties in absolute risk calculation. The ratio of risk between two techniques has often been proposed as a more robust assessment of risk than the absolute risk. We found that the ratio of risk between two techniques could also vary substantially considering the different approaches to risk estimation. Sometimes the ratio of risk between two techniques would range between values smaller and larger than one, which then translates into inconsistent results on the potential higher risk of one technique compared to another. We found however that the hybrid IMRT technique resulted in a systematic reduction of risk compared to the other techniques investigated even though the magnitude of this reduction varied substantially with the different approaches investigated. Based on the epidemiological data available, a reasonable approach to risk estimation would be to use organ-specific non-linear risk models applied to the dose distributions of organs within or near the treatment fields (lungs and contralateral breast in the case of breast radiotherapy) as the majority of radiation-induced secondary cancers are found in the beam-bordering regions.

Beyond Symptoms: Typical Plans and Motives of Suicide Attempters Compared to Non-Suicidal Depressive Individuals

Aim: A major depressive episode is still a frequently discussed risk factor of suicidal behaviour. However, current studies suggest that depression is predictive of suicidal ideas but much less of suicidal act (Nock et al., 2009). This implies that suicidal behaviour should not only be seen as a symptom of a depressive disorder, but should be understood as an independent behaviour, which must be examined separately. The present qualitative study focuses on typical Plans and motives of suicide attempters compared to non-suicidal depressive individuals.Methods: Plan Analysis (Caspar, 2007), a clinical case conceptualization approach was used to analyze the instrumental relations between participants' behaviours and the hypothetical Plans and motives "behind" this behaviour. Video taped narrative interviews of 17 suicide attempters and intake interviews of 17 non‐suicidal depressive patients were investigated with the Plan Analysis procedure and a Plan structure was developed for each participant. These were used for establishing a prototypical Plan structure for each clinical group.Results: Results indicate that suicidal behaviour serves various Plans and motives only found in suicide attempters. Furthermore depressive patients pursue interpersonal control strategies which may serve as a protective factor for not evolving suicidal behaviour.Discussion. Findings are discussed with respect to current theoretical models of suicidality as well as implications for suicide prevention.

Impact of common risk factors of fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C.

OBJECTIVE The natural course of chronic hepatitis C varies widely. To improve the profiling of patients at risk of developing advanced liver disease, we assessed the relative contribution of factors for liver fibrosis progression in hepatitis C. DESIGN We analysed 1461 patients with chronic hepatitis C with an estimated date of infection and at least one liver biopsy. Risk factors for accelerated fibrosis progression rate (FPR), defined as ≥0.13 Metavir fibrosis units per year, were identified by logistic regression. Examined factors included age at infection, sex, route of infection, HCV genotype, body mass index (BMI), significant alcohol drinking (≥20 g/day for ≥5 years), HIV coinfection and diabetes. In a subgroup of 575 patients, we assessed the impact of single nucleotide polymorphisms previously associated with fibrosis progression in genome-wide association studies. Results were expressed as attributable fraction (AF) of risk for accelerated FPR. RESULTS Age at infection (AF 28.7%), sex (AF 8.2%), route of infection (AF 16.5%) and HCV genotype (AF 7.9%) contributed to accelerated FPR in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study, whereas significant alcohol drinking, anti-HIV, diabetes and BMI did not. In genotyped patients, variants at rs9380516 (TULP1), rs738409 (PNPLA3), rs4374383 (MERTK) (AF 19.2%) and rs910049 (major histocompatibility complex region) significantly added to the risk of accelerated FPR. Results were replicated in three additional independent cohorts, and a meta-analysis confirmed the role of age at infection, sex, route of infection, HCV genotype, rs738409, rs4374383 and rs910049 in accelerating FPR. CONCLUSIONS Most factors accelerating liver fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C are unmodifiable.

Can 3D ultrasound identify trochlea dysplasia in newborns? Evaluation and applicability of a technique.

Femoro-patellar dysplasia is considered as a significant risk factor of patellar instability. Different studies suggest that the shape of the trochlea is already developed in early childhood. Therefore early identification of a dysplastic configuration might be relevant information for the treating physician. An easy applicable routine screening of the trochlea is yet not available. The purpose of this study was to establish and evaluate a screening method for femoro-patellar dysplasia using 3D ultrasound. From 2012 to 2013 we prospectively imaged 160 consecutive femoro-patellar joints in 80 newborns from the 36th to 61st gestational week that underwent a routine hip sonography (Graf). All ultrasounds were performed by a pediatric radiologist with only minimal additional time to the routine hip ultrasound. In 30° flexion of the knee, axial, coronal, and sagittal reformats were used to standardize a reconstructed axial plane through the femoral condyle and the mid-patella. The sulcus angle, the lateral-to-medial facet ratio of the trochlea and the shape of the patella (Wiberg Classification) were evaluated. In all examinations reconstruction of the standardized axial plane was achieved, the mean trochlea angle was 149.1° (SD 4.9°), the lateral-to-medial facet ratio of the trochlea ratio was 1.3 (SD 0.22), and a Wiberg type I patella was found in 95% of the newborn. No statistical difference was detected between boys and girls. Using standardized reconstructions of the axial plane allows measurements to be made with lower operator dependency and higher accuracy in a short time. Therefore 3D ultrasound is an easy applicable and powerful tool to identify trochlea dysplasia in newborns and might be used for screening for trochlea dysplasia.

Law and science: risk assessment and risk management in the WTO agreement on the application of sanitary and phytosanitary measures

Assessing and managing risks relating to the consumption of food stuffs for humans and to the environment has been one of the most complex legal issues in WTO law, ever since the Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures was adopted at the end of the Uruguay Round and entered into force in 1995. The problem was expounded in a number of cases. Panels and the Appellate Body adopted different philosophies in interpreting the agreement and the basic concept of risk assessment as defined in Annex A para. 4 of the Agreement. Risk assessment entails fundamental question on law and science. Different interpretations reflect different underlying perceptions of science and its relationship to the law. The present thesis supported by the Swiss National Research Foundation undertakes an in-depth analysis of these underlying perceptions. The author expounds the essence and differences of positivism and relativism in philosophy and natural sciences. He clarifies the relationship of fundamental concepts such as risk, hazards and probability. This investigation is a remarkable effort on the part of lawyer keen to learn more about the fundamentals based upon which the law – often unconsciously – is operated by the legal profession and the trade community. Based upon these insights, he turns to a critical assessment of jurisprudence both of panels and the Appellate Body. Extensively referring and discussing the literature, he deconstructs findings and decisions in light of implied and assumed underlying philosophies and perceptions as to the relationship of law and science, in particular in the field of food standards. Finding that both positivism and relativism does not provide adequate answers, the author turns critical rationalism and applies the methodologies of falsification developed by Karl R. Popper. Critical rationalism allows combining discourse in science and law and helps preparing the ground for a new approach to risk assessment and risk management. Linking the problem to the doctrine of multilevel governance the author develops a theory allocating risk assessment to international for a while leaving the matter of risk management to national and democratically accountable government. While the author throughout the thesis questions the possibility of separating risk assessment and risk management, the thesis offers new avenues which may assist in structuring a complex and difficult problem

A pilot test of the new Swiss regulatory procedure for categorizing clinical trials by risk: A randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND/AIMS Several countries are working to adapt clinical trial regulations to align the approval process to the level of risk for trial participants. The optimal framework to categorize clinical trials according to risk remains unclear, however. Switzerland is the first European country to adopt a risk-based categorization procedure in January 2014. We assessed how accurately and consistently clinical trials are categorized using two different approaches: an approach using criteria set forth in the new law (concept) or an intuitive approach (ad hoc). METHODS This was a randomized controlled trial with a method-comparison study nested in each arm. We used clinical trial protocols from eight Swiss ethics committees approved between 2010 and 2011. Protocols were randomly assigned to be categorized in one of three risk categories using the concept or the ad hoc approach. Each protocol was independently categorized by the trial's sponsor, a group of experts and the approving ethics committee. The primary outcome was the difference in categorization agreement between the expert group and sponsors across arms. Linear weighted kappa was used to quantify agreements, with the difference between kappas being the primary effect measure. RESULTS We included 142 of 231 protocols in the final analysis (concept = 78; ad hoc = 64). Raw agreement between the expert group and sponsors was 0.74 in the concept and 0.78 in the ad hoc arm. Chance-corrected agreement was higher in the ad hoc (kappa: 0.34 (95% confidence interval = 0.10-0.58)) than in the concept arm (0.27 (0.06-0.50)), but the difference was not significant (p = 0.67). LIMITATIONS The main limitation was the large number of protocols excluded from the analysis mostly because they did not fit with the clinical trial definition of the new law. CONCLUSION A structured risk categorization approach was not better than an ad hoc approach. Laws introducing risk-based approaches should provide guidelines, examples and templates to ensure correct application.

ERS task force statement: diagnosis and treatment of primary spontaneous pneumothorax.

Primary spontaneous pneumothorax (PSP) affects young healthy people with a significant recurrence rate. Recent advances in treatment have been variably implemented in clinical practice. This statement reviews the latest developments and concepts to improve clinical management and stimulate further research.The European Respiratory Society's Scientific Committee established a multidisciplinary team of pulmonologists and surgeons to produce a comprehensive review of available scientific evidence.Smoking remains the main risk factor of PSP. Routine smoking cessation is advised. More prospective data are required to better define the PSP population and incidence of recurrence. In first episodes of PSP, treatment approach is driven by symptoms rather than PSP size. The role of bullae rupture as the cause of air leakage remains unclear, implying that any treatment of PSP recurrence includes pleurodesis. Talc poudrage pleurodesis by thoracoscopy is safe, provided calibrated talc is available. Video-assisted thoracic surgery is preferred to thoracotomy as a surgical approach.In first episodes of PSP, aspiration is required only in symptomatic patients. After a persistent or recurrent PSP, definitive treatment including pleurodesis is undertaken. Future randomised controlled trials comparing different strategies are required.

Risk charts to guide targeted HIV-1 viral load monitoring of ART: development and validation in patients from resource-limited settings.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not available in many resource-limited settings. We developed and validated CD4-based risk charts to guide targeted VL testing. METHODS We modeled the probability of virologic failure up to 5 years of ART based on current and baseline CD4 counts, developed decision rules for targeted VL testing of 10%, 20% or 40% of patients in seven cohorts of patients starting ART in South Africa, and plotted cut-offs for VL testing on colour-coded risk charts. We assessed the accuracy of risk chart-guided VL testing to detect virologic failure in validation cohorts from South Africa, Zambia and the Asia-Pacific. FINDINGS 31,450 adult patients were included in the derivation and 25,294 patients in the validation cohorts. Positive predictive values increased with the percentage of patients tested: from 79% (10% tested) to 98% (40% tested) in the South African, from 64% to 93% in the Zambian and from 73% to 96% in the Asia-Pacific cohorts. Corresponding increases in sensitivity were from 35% to 68% in South Africa, from 55% to 82% in Zambia and from 37% to 71% in Asia-Pacific. The area under the receiver-operating curve increased from 0.75 to 0.91 in South Africa, from 0.76 to 0.91 in Zambia and from 0.77 to 0.92 in Asia Pacific. INTERPRETATION CD4-based risk charts with optimal cut-offs for targeted VL testing may be useful to monitor ART in settings where VL capacity is limited.

The long-term development of avalanche risk in settlements considering the temporal variability of damage potential

Recent studies on the avalanche risk in alpine settlements suggested a strong dependency of the development of risk on variations in damage potential. Based on these findings, analyses on probable maximum losses in avalanche-prone areas of the municipality of Davos (CH) were used as an indicator for the long-term development of values at risk. Even if the results were subject to significant uncertainties, they underlined the dependency of today's risk on the historical development of land-use: Small changes in the lateral extent of endangered areas had a considerable impact on the exposure of values. In a second step, temporal variations in damage potential between 1950 and 2000 were compared in two different study areas representing typical alpine socio-economic development patterns: Davos (CH) and Galtür (A). The resulting trends were found to be similar; the damage potential increased significantly in number and value. Thus, the development of natural risk in settlements can for a major part be attributed to long-term shifts in damage potential.

Temporal variability of damage potential on roads as a conceptual contribution towards a short-term avalanche risk simulation

The fatality risk caused by avalanches on road networks can be analysed using a long-term approach, resulting in a mean value of risk, and with emphasis on short-term fluctuations due to the temporal variability of both, the hazard potential and the damage potential. In this study, the approach for analysing the long-term fatality risk has been adapted by modelling the highly variable short-term risk. The emphasis was on the temporal variability of the damage potential and the related risk peaks. For defined hazard scenarios resulting from classified amounts of snow accumulation, the fatality risk was calculated by modelling the hazard potential and observing the traffic volume. The avalanche occurrence probability was calculated using a statistical relationship between new snow height and observed avalanche releases. The number of persons at risk was determined from the recorded traffic density. The method resulted in a value for the fatality risk within the observed time frame for the studied road segment. The long-term fatality risk due to snow avalanches as well as the short-term fatality risk was compared to the average fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The application of the method had shown that the long-term avalanche risk is lower than the fatality risk due to traffic accidents. The analyses of short-term avalanche-induced fatality risk provided risk peaks that were 50 times higher than the statistical accident risk. Apart from situations with high hazard level and high traffic density, risk peaks result from both, a high hazard level combined with a low traffic density and a high traffic density combined with a low hazard level. This provided evidence for the importance of the temporal variability of the damage potential for risk simulations on road networks. The assumed dependence of the risk calculation on the sum of precipitation within three days is a simplified model. Thus, further research is needed for an improved determination of the diurnal avalanche probability. Nevertheless, the presented approach may contribute as a conceptual step towards a risk-based decision-making in risk management.

Model for ranking freshwater fish farms according to their risk of infection and illustration for viral haemorrhagic septicaemia

We developed a model to calculate a quantitative risk score for individual aquaculture sites. The score indicates the risk of the site being infected with a specific fish pathogen (viral haemorrhagic septicaemia virus (VHSV); infectious haematopoietic necrosis virus, Koi herpes virus), and is intended to be used for risk ranking sites to support surveillance for demonstration of zone or member state freedom from these pathogens. The inputs to the model include a range of quantitative and qualitative estimates of risk factors organised into five risk themes (1) Live fish and egg movements; (2) Exposure via water; (3) On-site processing; (4) Short-distance mechanical transmission; (5) Distance-independent mechanical transmission. The calculated risk score for an individual aquaculture site is a value between zero and one and is intended to indicate the risk of a site relative to the risk of other sites (thereby allowing ranking). The model was applied to evaluate 76 rainbow trout farms in 3 countries (42 from England, 32 from Italy and 2 from Switzerland) with the aim to establish their risk of being infected with VHSV. Risk scores for farms in England and Italy showed great variation, clearly enabling ranking. Scores ranged from 0.002 to 0.254 (mean score 0.080) in England and 0.011 to 0.778 (mean of 0.130) for Italy, reflecting the diversity of infection status of farms in these countries. Requirements for broader application of the model are discussed. Cost efficient farm data collection is important to realise the benefits from a risk-based approach.

Implementation and Operational Research: Risk Charts to Guide Targeted HIV-1 Viral Load Monitoring of ART: Development and Validation in Patients From Resource-Limited Settings.

BACKGROUND HIV-1 RNA viral load (VL) testing is recommended to monitor antiretroviral therapy (ART) but not available in many resource-limited settings. We developed and validated CD4-based risk charts to guide targeted VL testing. METHODS We modeled the probability of virologic failure up to 5 years of ART based on current and baseline CD4 counts, developed decision rules for targeted VL testing of 10%, 20%, or 40% of patients in 7 cohorts of patients starting ART in South Africa, and plotted cutoffs for VL testing on colour-coded risk charts. We assessed the accuracy of risk chart-guided VL testing to detect virologic failure in validation cohorts from South Africa, Zambia, and the Asia-Pacific. RESULTS In total, 31,450 adult patients were included in the derivation and 25,294 patients in the validation cohorts. Positive predictive values increased with the percentage of patients tested: from 79% (10% tested) to 98% (40% tested) in the South African cohort, from 64% to 93% in the Zambian cohort, and from 73% to 96% in the Asia-Pacific cohort. Corresponding increases in sensitivity were from 35% to 68% in South Africa, from 55% to 82% in Zambia, and from 37% to 71% in Asia-Pacific. The area under the receiver operating curve increased from 0.75 to 0.91 in South Africa, from 0.76 to 0.91 in Zambia, and from 0.77 to 0.92 in Asia-Pacific. CONCLUSIONS CD4-based risk charts with optimal cutoffs for targeted VL testing maybe useful to monitor ART in settings where VL capacity is limited.

Risk Factors for Intracranial Haemorrhage in Accidents Associated with the Shower or Bathtub

BACKGROUND There has been little research on bathroom accidents. It is unknown whether the shower or bathtub are connected with special dangers in different age groups or whether there are specific risk factors for adverse outcomes. METHODS This cross-sectional analysis included all direct admissions to the Emergency Department at the Inselspital Bern, Switzerland from 1 January 2000 to 28 February 2014 after accidents associated with the bathtub or shower. Time, age, location, mechanism and diagnosis were assessed and special risk factors were examined. Patient groups with and without intracranial bleeding were compared with the Mann-Whitney U test.The association of risk factors with intracranial bleeding was investigated using univariate analysis with Fisher's exact test or logistic regression. The effects of different variables on cerebral bleeding were analysed by multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS Two hundred and eighty (280) patients with accidents associated with the bathtub or shower were included in our study. Two hundred and thirty-five (235) patients suffered direct trauma by hitting an object (83.9%) and traumatic brain injury (TBI) was detected in 28 patients (10%). Eight (8) of the 27 patients with mild traumatic brain injuries (GCS 13-15), (29.6%) exhibited intracranial haemorrhage. All patients with intracranial haemorrhage were older than 48 years and needed in-hospital treatment. Patients with intracranial haemorrhage were significantly older and had higher haemoglobin levels than the control group with TBI but without intracranial bleeding (p<0.05 for both).In univariate analysis, we found that intracranial haemorrhage in patients with TBI was associated with direct trauma in general and with age (both p<0.05), but not with the mechanism of the fall, its location (shower or bathtub) or the gender of the patient. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified only age as a risk factor for cerebral bleeding (p<0.05; OR 1.09 (CI 1.01;1.171)). CONCLUSION In patients with ED admissions associated with the bathtub or shower direct trauma and age are risk factors for intracranial haemorrhage. Additional effort in prevention should be considered, especially in the elderly.

Influence and Impact of Cognitive Trajectories on Outcome in Patients Undergoing Radical Cystectomy: an Observational Study

OBJECTIVES To evaluate cognitive trajectories after radical cystectomy and their impact on surgical outcomes, including urinary continence. METHODS Ninety patients received cognitive testing using the Mini Mental State Exam (MMSE) before open radical cystectomy as well as 3 days and 2 weeks after surgery. Based on MMSE changes ≥3 points between the three time points, five cognitive trajectories emerged (stable cognition, persistent or transient deterioration or persistent or transient improvement). Surgical outcomes were assessed 90 days, 6 months and 1 year postoperatively. RESULTS Mean age was 67.9 ± 9.3 years (range 40 - 88 years). Sixty-six patients (73.3%) had stable cognition, nine patients (10.0%) persistent and seven patients (7.8%) transient deterioration, five patients (5.6%) persistent and three patients (3.3%) transient improvement. An impaired preoperative cognition was the only significant risk factor of short-term cognitive deterioration (OR adjusted for age and sex 9.4, 95%CI 1.6-56.5, p=0.014). Cognition showed no associations with 1-year mortality, 90-day complication rate, cancer progression or duration of in-hospital stay. Patients with transient or persistent cognitive deterioration had an increased risk for nighttime incontinence (OR adjusted for age and sex 5.1, 95%CI 1.1-22.4, p=0.032). CONCLUSIONS In this study, the majority of patients showed stable cognition after major abdominopelvic surgery. Cognitive deterioration occurred in a small subgroup of patients, and an impaired preoperative cognition was the only significant risk factor. Postoperative cognitive deterioration was associated with nighttime incontinence.