Evaluation of a Bayesian MCMC Random Effects Inference Methodology for Capture-Mark-Recapture Data

Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate properties of a simple Bayesian MCMC analysis of the random effects model for single group Cormack-Jolly-Seber capture-recapture data. The MCMC method is applied to the model via a logit link, so parameters p, S are on a logit scale, where logit(S) is assumed to have, and is generated from, a normal distribution with mean μ and variance σ2 . Marginal prior distributions on logit(p) and μ were independent normal with mean zero and standard deviation 1.75 for logit(p) and 100 for μ ; hence minimally informative. Marginal prior distribution on σ2 was placed on τ2=1/σ2 as a gamma distribution with α=β=0.001 . The study design has 432 points spread over 5 factors: occasions (t) , new releases per occasion (u), p, μ , and σ . At each design point 100 independent trials were completed (hence 43,200 trials in total), each with sample size n=10,000 from the parameter posterior distribution. At 128 of these design points comparisons are made to previously reported results from a method of moments procedure. We looked at properties of point and interval inference on μ , and σ based on the posterior mean, median, and mode and equal-tailed 95% credibility interval. Bayesian inference did very well for the parameter μ , but under the conditions used here, MCMC inference performance for σ was mixed: poor for sparse data (i.e., only 7 occasions) or σ=0 , but good when there were sufficient data and not small σ .

A multi-center retrospective analysis of treatment effects and quality of life in adult patients with cranial ependymomas

Long term quality of life data of adult patients harboring intracranial ependymomas have not been reported. The role of adjuvant radiation therapy in Grade II ependymomas is unclear and differs from study to study. We therefore sought to retrospectively analyze outcome and quality of life of adult patients that were operated on intracranial ependymomas at four different surgical centers in two countries. All patients were attempted to be contacted via telephone to assess quality of life (QoL) at the time of the telephone interview. The standard EORTC QoL Questionnaire C30 (EORTC QLQ-C30) and the EORTC QLQ-Brain Cancer Module (QLQ-BN20) were used. 64 adult patients with intracranial ependymomas were included in the study. The only factor that was associated with increased survival was age <55 years (p < 0.001). Supratentorial location was correlated with shorter progression free survival than infratentorial location (PFS; p = 0.048). In WHO Grade II tumors local irradiation did not lead to increased PFS (p = 0.888) or overall survival (p = 0.801). Even for incompletely resected Grade II tumors local irradiation did not lead to a benefit in PFS (p = 0.911). In a multivariate analysis of QoL, irradiated patients had significantly worse scores in the item "fatigue" (p = 0.037) than non-irradiated patients. Here we present QoL data of adult patients with intracranial ependymomas. Our data show that local radiation therapy may have long-term effects on patients' QoL. Since in the incompletely resected Grade II tumors local irradiation did not lead to a benefit in PFS in this retrospective study, prospective randomized studies are necessary. In addition to age, supratentorial tumor location is associated with a worse prognosis in adult ependymoma patients.

Are clustering effects accounted for in statistical analysis in leading dental specialty journals?

OBJECTIVES In dental research multiple site observations within patients or taken at various time intervals are commonplace. These clustered observations are not independent; statistical analysis should be amended accordingly. This study aimed to assess whether adjustment for clustering effects during statistical analysis was undertaken in five specialty dental journals. METHODS Thirty recent consecutive issues of Orthodontics (OJ), Periodontology (PJ), Endodontology (EJ), Maxillofacial (MJ) and Paediatric Dentristry (PDJ) journals were hand searched. Articles requiring adjustment accounting for clustering effects were identified and statistical techniques used were scrutinized. RESULTS Of 559 studies considered to have inherent clustering effects, adjustment for this was made in the statistical analysis in 223 (39.1%). Studies published in the Periodontology specialty accounted for clustering effects in the statistical analysis more often than articles published in other journals (OJ vs. PJ: OR=0.21, 95% CI: 0.12, 0.37, p<0.001; MJ vs. PJ: OR=0.02, 95% CI: 0.00, 0.07, p<0.001; PDJ vs. PJ: OR=0.14, 95% CI: 0.07, 0.28, p<0.001; EJ vs. PJ: OR=0.11, 95% CI: 0.06, 0.22, p<0.001). A positive correlation was found between increasing prevalence of clustering effects in individual specialty journals and correct statistical handling of clustering (r=0.89). CONCLUSIONS The majority of studies in 5 dental specialty journals (60.9%) examined failed to account for clustering effects in statistical analysis where indicated, raising the possibility of inappropriate decreases in p-values and the risk of inappropriate inferences.

Neighbourhood Diversity and Social Trust: An Empirical Analysis of Interethnic Contact and Group-specific Effects

To date, neighbourhood studies on ethnic diversity and social trust have revealed inconclusive findings. In this paper, three innovations are proposed in order to systemise the knowledge about neighbourhood ethnic diversity and the development of social trust. First, it is proposed to use a valid trust measure that is sensitive to the local neighbourhood context. Second, the paper argues for a conception of organically evolved neighbourhoods, rather than using local administrative units as readily available proxies for neighbourhood divisions. Thirdly, referring to intergroup contact theory and group-specific effects of diversity, the paper challenges the notion that ethnic diversity has overwhelmingly negative effects on social trust.

The long arm of time pressure at work: Cognitive failure and commuting near-accidents

This study tests whether cognitive failures mediate effects of work-related time pressure and time control on commuting accidents and near-accidents. Participants were 83 employees (56% female) who each commuted between their regular place of residence and place of work using vehicles. The Workplace Cognitive Failure Scale (WCFS) asked for the frequency of failure in memory function, failure in attention regulation, and failure in action execution. Time pressure and time control at work were assessed by the Instrument for Stress Oriented Task Analysis (ISTA). Commuting accidents in the last 12 months were reported by 10% of participants, and half of the sample reported commuting near-accidents in the last 4 weeks. Cognitive failure significantly mediated the influence of time pressure at work on near-accidents even when age, gender, neuroticism, conscientiousness, commuting duration, commuting distance, and time pressure during commuting were controlled for. Time control was negatively related to cognitive failure and neuroticism, but no association with commuting accidents or near-accidents was found. Time pressure at work is likely to increase cognitive load. Time pressure might, therefore, increase cognitive failures during work and also during commuting. Hence, time pressure at work can decrease commuting safety. The result suggests a reduction of time pressure at work should improve commuting safety.

The effects of thoracic epidurally administered drugs on urethral sphincter function in women: a pooled analysis

OBJECTIVES Thoracic epidural analgesia (TEA) has been shown to inhibit detrusor activity in patients undergoing open renal surgery, resulting in clinically relevant post-void residuals. However, the impact of different epidural drug mixtures on urethral sphincter function is not completely elucidated. DESIGN Pooled analysis of an open observational study and a double-blind randomized trial. SETTING Single tertiary centre. SUBJECTS Twenty-eight women without lower urinary tract symptoms and post-void residual <100 mL, who underwent open renal surgery with TEA. METHODS Pooling results in three groups with different epidural regimens (7 with bupivacaine 0.125%, 8 with bupivacaine 0.125% and fentanyl 2 μg/mL, and 13 with bupivacaine 0.1% plus fentanyl 2 μg/mL and epinephrine 2 μg/mL). All women underwent urethral pressure measurements before TEA and during TEA 2-3 days postoperatively. All patients received a TEA placed at the insertion site interspace T 8-9. RESULTS Maximum urethral closure pressure at rest decreased significantly during TEA with bupivacaine alone (median 70 cm H2 O [interquartile range 66-76] to 43 [43-65], P = 0.031) and with bupivacaine/fentanyl/epinephrine (75 cm H2 O [68-78] to 56 [52-75], P = 0.028), whereas with bupivacaine/fentanyl, no significant change could be detected (74 [51-88] vs 67 [46-70], P = 0.156). In all groups, functional profile length at rest was not influenced during TEA. CONCLUSION TEA with bupivacaine and the addition of fentanyl and epinephrine appears to decrease maximum urethral closure pressure at rest in women. The addition of fentanyl alone to bupivacaine may reduce this effect. Thus, the TEA effect on urethral sphincter function seems to depend on the drug mixture administered.

Cohort-specific effects of the expansion of the welfare state on job opportunities: a longitudinal analysis of three birth cohorts in the Federal Republic of Germany

Ziel der Untersuchung war es, Einflüsse auf den Arbeitsmarkt der Bundesrepublik durch das Anwachsen des Wohlfahrtsstaates zu ermitteln. Zu diesem Zweck wurden zwischen 1981 und 1983 2.171 Männer und Frauen der Geburtskohorten 1929-31, 1939-41 und 1949-51 mit standardisierten Interviews befragt zu ihrem Lebensverlauf, speziell unter den Gesichtspunkten: Soziale Herkunft, Ausbildung, Beschäftigung, Familie, Mobilität. Insbesondere interessierte die Frage nach der Beschäftigung im öffentlichen Dienst oder in der Privatwirtschaft bzw. ob und wann ein Wechsel von einem in den anderen Bereich stattgefunden hat. Einige Ergebnisse: Die Bildungsexpansion in den 70er Jahren führte dazu, daß eine steigende Anzahl von Universitätsabsolventen im öffentlichen Dienst Beschäftigung fand; seit der Stagnation des Wohlfahrtsstaates ab ca. 1980 sind die Beschäftigungschancen für hochqualifizierte Berufsanfänger dort wieder gesunken. In der Privatwirtschaft wird unqualifizierte Beschäftigung durch höher qualifizierte ersetzt, während im öffentlichen Dienst bei geringerem Arbeitsplatzangebot weniger hochqualifizierte Berufsanfänger nachgefragt werden.

Improvement of cardiac function with device-based diaphragmatic stimulation in chronic heart failure patients: the randomized, open-label, crossover Epiphrenic II Pilot Trial.

AIMS Device-based pacing-induced diaphragmatic stimulation (PIDS) may have therapeutic potential for chronic heart failure (HF) patients. We studied the effects of PIDS on cardiac function and functional outcomes. METHODS AND RESULTS In 24 chronic HF patients with CRT, an additional electrode was attached to the left diaphragm. Randomized into two groups, patients received the following PIDS modes for 3 weeks in a different sequence: (i) PIDS off (control group); (ii) PIDS 0 ms mode (PIDS simultaneously with ventricular CRT pulse); or (iii) PIDS optimized mode (PIDS with optimized delay to ventricular CRT pulse). For PIDS optimization, acoustic cardiography was used. Effects of each PIDS mode on dyspnoea, power during exercise testing, and LVEF were assessed. Dyspnoea improved with the PIDS 0 ms mode (P = 0.057) and the PIDS optimized mode (P = 0.034) as compared with the control group. Maximal power increased from median 100.5 W in the control group to 104.0 W in the PIDS 0 ms mode (P = 0.092) and 109.5 W in the PIDS optimized mode (P = 0.022). Median LVEF was 33.5% in the control group, 33.0% in the PIDS 0 ms mode, and 37.0% in the PIDS optimized mode (P = 0.763 and P = 0.009 as compared with the control group, respectively). PIDS was asymptomatic in all patients. CONCLUSION PIDS improves dyspnoea, working capacity, and LVEF in chronic HF patients over a 3 week period in addition to CRT. This pilot study demonstrates proof of principle of an innovative technology which should be confirmed in a larger sample. TRIAL REGISTRATION NCT00769678.

Effects of inspiratory muscle training in patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction

BACKGROUND Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is remarkably common in elderly people with highly prevalent comorbid conditions. Despite its increasing in prevalence, there is no evidence-based effective therapy for HFpEF. We sought to evaluate whether inspiratory muscle training (IMT) improves exercise capacity, as well as left ventricular diastolic function, biomarker profile and quality of life (QoL) in patients with advanced HFpEF and nonreduced maximal inspiratory pressure (MIP). DESIGN AND METHODS A total of 26 patients with HFpEF (median (interquartile range) age, peak exercise oxygen uptake (peak VO2) and left ventricular ejection fraction of 73 years (66-76), 10 ml/min/kg (7.6-10.5) and 72% (65-77), respectively) were randomized to receive a 12-week programme of IMT plus standard care vs. standard care alone. The primary endpoint of the study was evaluated by positive changes in cardiopulmonary exercise parameters and distance walked in 6 minutes (6MWT). Secondary endpoints were changes in QoL, echocardiogram parameters of diastolic function, and prognostic biomarkers. RESULTS The IMT group improved significantly their MIP (p < 0.001), peak VO2 (p < 0.001), exercise oxygen uptake at anaerobic threshold (p = 0.001), ventilatory efficiency (p = 0.007), metabolic equivalents (p < 0,001), 6MWT (p < 0.001), and QoL (p = 0.037) as compared to the control group. No changes on diastolic function parameters or biomarkers levels were observed between both groups. CONCLUSIONS In HFpEF patients with low aerobic capacity and non-reduced MIP, IMT was associated with marked improvement in exercise capacity and QoL.