Plotting regression coefficients and other estimates

Graphical display of regression results has become increasingly popular in presentations and in scientific literature because graphs are often much easier to read than tables. Such plots can be produced in Stata by the marginsplot command (see [R] marginsplot). However, while marginsplot is versatile and flexible, it has two major limitations: it can only process results left behind by margins (see [R] margins), and it can handle only one set of results at a time. In this article, I introduce a new command called coefplot that overcomes these limitations. It plots results from any estimation command and combines results from several models into one graph. The default behavior of coefplot is to plot markers for coefficients and horizontal spikes for confidence intervals. However, coefplot can also produce other types of graphs. I illustrate the capabilities of coefplot by using a series of examples.

Eigenvalue estimates for non-selfadjoint Dirac operators on the real line

We show that the non-embedded eigenvalues of the Dirac operator on the real line with complex mass and non-Hermitian potential V lie in the disjoint union of two disks, provided that the L1-norm of V is bounded from above by the speed of light times the reduced Planck constant. The result is sharp; moreover, the analogous sharp result for the Schrödinger operator, originally proved by Abramov, Aslanyan and Davies, emerges in the nonrelativistic limit. For massless Dirac operators, the condition on V implies the absence of non-real eigenvalues. Our results are further generalized to potentials with slower decay at infinity. As an application, we determine bounds on resonances and embedded eigenvalues of Dirac operators with Hermitian dilation-analytic potentials.

Making regression tables from stored estimates

Organizing and archiving statistical results and processing a subset of those results for publication are important and often underestimated issues in conducting statistical analyses. Because automation of these tasks is often poor, processing results produced by statistical packages is quite laborious and vulnerable to error. I will therefore present a new package called estout that facilitates and automates some of these tasks. This new command can be used to produce regression tables for use with spreadsheets, LaTeX, HTML, or word processors. For example, the results for multiple models can be organized in spreadsheets and can thus be archived in an orderly manner. Alternatively, the results can be directly saved as a publication-ready table for inclusion in, for example, a LaTeX document. estout is implemented as a wrapper for estimates table but has many additional features, such as support for mfx. However, despite its flexibility, estout is—I believe—still very straightforward and easy to use. Furthermore, estout can be customized via so-called defaults files. A tool to make available supplementary statistics called estadd is also provided.

Time Variable Gravity: Contributions of GOCE Satellite Data to Monthly and Bi-monthly GRACE Gravity Estimates

A feasibility study by Pail et al. (Can GOCE help to improve temporal gravity field estimates? In: Ouwehand L (ed) Proceedings of the 4th International GOCE User Workshop, ESA Publication SP-696, 2011b) shows that GOCE (‘Gravity field and steady-state Ocean Circulation Explorer’) satellite gravity gradiometer (SGG) data in combination with GPS derived orbit data (satellite-to-satellite tracking: SST-hl) can be used to stabilize and reduce the striping pattern of a bi-monthly GRACE (‘Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment’) gravity field estimate. In this study several monthly (and bi-monthly) combinations of GRACE with GOCE SGG and GOCE SST-hl data on the basis of normal equations are investigated. Our aim is to assess the role of the gradients (solely) in the combination and whether already one month of GOCE observations provides sufficient data for having an impact in the combination. The estimation of clean and stable monthly GOCE SGG normal equations at high resolution ( >  d/o 150) is found to be difficult, and the SGG component, solely, does not show significant added value to monthly and bi-monthly GRACE gravity fields. Comparisons of GRACE-only and combined monthly and bi-monthly solutions show that the striping pattern can only be reduced when using both GOCE observation types (SGG, SST-hl), and mainly between d/o 45 and 60.

Pollen dispersal properties of Poaceae and Cyperaceae: First estimates of their absolute pollen productivities

Pollen-trap results from the Swiss Alps 1996–2009 were used to assess the pollen dispersal–deposition properties of Poaceae (grasses) and Cyperaceae (sedges). Dispersal parameter values were investigated for a modified version of the Prentice–Sugita pollen dispersal–deposition model. Appropriate values (i.e. realistic in the field and allowing realistic modelling results) for wind speed are suggested to be in the range of 3–7 m s− 1 and for pollen an injection height of 0.03–0.1 m above the ground. The appropriate range of pollen injection height values for grasses and sedges differs from that of trees in the same area, suggesting different pollen dispersal properties between herbs and trees. In addition, logarithmic weighting of the vegetation was tested as an alternative to the modified Prentice–Sugita model. This yielded very similar results, suggesting that the use of such much simpler approximations of the pollen–vegetation relationship is a plausible alternative. Based on the modified Prentice–Sugita model, absolute pollen productivity for Poaceae was estimated to 7300 ± 400 grains cm− 2 year− 1 (1 SE). The data basis for Cyperaceae is smaller than for Poaceae, but the dispersal parameter values determined as appropriate for Poaceae yield good results. Absolute pollen productivity for Cyperaceae was estimated to 6300 ± 1100 grains cm− 2 year− 1 (1 SE).

Ignoring heterozygous sites biases phylogenomic estimates of divergence times: implications for the evolutionary history of Microtus voles

Phylogenetic reconstruction of the evolutionary history of closely related organisms may be difficult because of the presence of unsorted lineages and of a relatively high proportion of heterozygous sites that are usually not handled well by phylogenetic programs. Genomic data may provide enough fixed polymorphisms to resolve phylogenetic trees, but the diploid nature of sequence data remains analytically challenging. Here, we performed a phylogenomic reconstruction of the evolutionary history of the common vole (Microtus arvalis) with a focus on the influence of heterozygosity on the estimation of intraspecific divergence times. We used genome-wide sequence information from 15 voles distributed across the European range. We provide a novel approach to integrate heterozygous information in existing phylogenetic programs by repeated random haplotype sampling from sequences with multiple unphased heterozygous sites. We evaluated the impact of the use of full, partial, or no heterozygous information for tree reconstructions on divergence time estimates. All results consistently showed four deep and strongly supported evolutionary lineages in the vole data. These lineages undergoing divergence processes split only at the end or after the last glacial maximum based on calibration with radiocarbon-dated paleontological material. However, the incorporation of information from heterozygous sites had a significant impact on absolute and relative branch length estimations. Ignoring heterozygous information led to an overestimation of divergence times between the evolutionary lineages of M. arvalis. We conclude that the exclusion of heterozygous sites from evolutionary analyses may cause biased and misleading divergence time estimates in closely related taxa.

A dispersive treatment of K ℓ 4 decays

Kℓ4 decays have several features of interest: they allow an accurate measurement of ππ-scattering lengths; they provide the best source for the determination of some low-energy constants of χPT; one form factor is directly related to the chiral anomaly, which can be measured here. We present a dispersive treatment of Kℓ4 decays that provides a resummation of ππ- and Kπ-rescattering effects. The free parameters of the dispersion relation are fitted to the data of the high-statistics experiments E865 and NA48/2. The matching to χPT at NLO and NNLO enables us to determine the LECs Lr1, Lr2 and Lr3. With recently published data from NA48/2, the LEC Lr9 can be determined as well. In contrast to a pure chiral treatment, the dispersion relation describes the observed curvature of one of the form factors, which we understand as a rescattering effect beyond NNLO.

Quantifying differences in land use emission estimates implied by definition discrepancies

The quantification of CO2 emissions from anthropogenic land use and land use change (eLUC) is essential to understand the drivers of the atmospheric CO2 increase and to inform climate change mitigation policy. Reported values in synthesis reports are commonly derived from different approaches (observation-driven bookkeeping and process-modelling) but recent work has emphasized that inconsistencies between methods may imply substantial differences in eLUC estimates. However, a consistent quantification is lacking and no concise modelling protocol for the separation of primary and secondary components of eLUC has been established. Here, we review differences of eLUC quantification methods and apply an Earth System Model (ESM) of Intermediate Complexity to quantify them. We find that the magnitude of effects due to merely conceptual differences between ESM and offline vegetation model-based quantifications is ~ 20 % for today. Under a future business-as-usual scenario, differences tend to increase further due to slowing land conversion rates and an increasing impact of altered environmental conditions on land-atmosphere fluxes. We establish how coupled Earth System Models may be applied to separate secondary component fluxes of eLUC arising from the replacement of potential C sinks/sources and the land use feedback and show that secondary fluxes derived from offline vegetation models are conceptually and quantitatively not identical to either, nor their sum. Therefore, we argue that synthesis studies should resort to the "least common denominator" of different methods, following the bookkeeping approach where only primary land use emissions are quantified under the assumption of constant environmental boundary conditions.

Minimum count sums for charcoalconcentration estimates in pollen slides: accuracy and potential errors

Charcoal particles in pollen slides are often abundant, and thus analysts are faced with the problem of setting the minimum counting sum as small as possible in order to save time. We analysed the reliability of charcoal-concentration estimates based on different counting sums, using simulated low-to high-count samples. Bootstrap simulations indicate that the variability of inferred charcoal concentrations increases progressively with decreasing sums. Below 200 items (i.e., the sum of charcoal particles and exotic marker grains), reconstructed fire incidence is either too high or too low. Statistical comparisons show that the means of bootstrap simulations stabilize after 200 counts. Moreover, a count of 200-300 items is sufficient to produce a charcoal-concentration estimate with less than+5% error if compared with high-count samples of 1000 items for charcoal/marker grain ratios 0.1-0.91. If, however, this ratio is extremely high or low (> 0.91 or < 0.1) and if such samples are frequent, we suggest that marker grains are reduced or added prior to new sample processing.

"Attacks" or "Whistling": Impact of Questionnaire Wording on Wheeze Prevalence Estimates.

BACKGROUND Estimates of prevalence of wheeze depend on questionnaires. However, wording of questions may vary between studies. We investigated effects of alternative wording on estimates of prevalence and severity of wheeze, and associations with risk factors. METHODS White and South Asian children from a population-based cohort (UK) were randomly assigned to two groups and followed up at one, four and six years (1998, 2001, 2003). Parents were asked either if their child ever had "attacks of wheeze" (attack group, N=535), or "wheezing or whistling in the chest" (whistling group, N=2859). All other study aspects were identical, including questions about other respiratory symptoms. RESULTS Prevalence of wheeze ever was lower in the attack group than in the whistling group for all surveys (32 vs. 40% in white children aged one year, p<0.001). Prevalence of other respiratory symptoms did not differ between groups. Wheeze tended to be more severe in the attack group. The strength of association with risk factors was comparable in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS The wording of questions on wheeze can affect estimates of prevalence, but has less impact on measured associations with risk factors. Question wording is a potential source of between-study-heterogeneity in meta-analyses.

Reference values for digital X-ray radiogrammetry parameters in children and adolescents in comparison to estimates in patients with distal radius fractures.

The first objective of this study was to determine normative digital X-ray radiogrammetry (DXR) values, based on original digital images, in a pediatric population (aged 6-18 years). The second aim was to compare these reference data with patients suffering from distal radius fractures, whereas both cohorts originated from the same geographical region and were evaluated using the same technical parameters as well as inclusion and exclusion criteria. DXR-BMD and DXR-MCI of the metacarpal bones II-IV were assessed on standardized digital hand radiographs, without printing or scanning procedures. DXR parameters were estimated separately by gender and among six age groups; values in the fracture group were compared to age- and gender-matched normative data using Student's t tests and Z scores. In the reference cohort (150 boys, 138 girls), gender differences were found in bone mineral density (DXR-BMD), with higher values for girls from 11 to 14 years and for boys from 15 to 18 years (p < 0.05). Girls had higher normative metacarpal index (DXR-MCI) values than boys, with significant differences at 11-14 years (p < 0.05). In the case-control investigation, the fracture group (95 boys, 69 girls) presented lower DXR-BMD at 15-18 years in boys and 13-16 years in girls vs. the reference cohort (p < 0.05); DXR-MCI was lower at 11-18 years in boys and 11-16 years in girls (p < 0.05). Mean Z scores in the fracture group for DXR-BMD were -0.42 (boys) and -0.46 (girls), and for DXR-MCI were -0.51 (boys) and -0.53 (girls). These findings indicate that the fully digital DXR technique can be accurately applied in pediatric populations ≥ 6 years of age. The lower DXR-BMD and DXR-MCI values in the fracture group suggest promising early identification of individuals with increased fracture risk, without the need for additional radiation exposure, enabling the initiation of prevention strategies to possibly reduce the incidence of osteoporosis later in life.

Global Estimates of the Prevalence and Incidence of Four Curable Sexually Transmitted Infections in 2012 Based on Systematic Review and Global Reporting.

BACKGROUND Quantifying sexually transmitted infection (STI) prevalence and incidence is important for planning interventions and advocating for resources. The World Health Organization (WHO) periodically estimates global and regional prevalence and incidence of four curable STIs: chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis and syphilis. METHODS AND FINDINGS WHO's 2012 estimates were based upon literature reviews of prevalence data from 2005 through 2012 among general populations for genitourinary infection with chlamydia, gonorrhoea, and trichomoniasis, and nationally reported data on syphilis seroprevalence among antenatal care attendees. Data were standardized for laboratory test type, geography, age, and high risk subpopulations, and combined using a Bayesian meta-analytic approach. Regional incidence estimates were generated from prevalence estimates by adjusting for average duration of infection. In 2012, among women aged 15-49 years, the estimated global prevalence of chlamydia was 4.2% (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 3.7-4.7%), gonorrhoea 0.8% (0.6-1.0%), trichomoniasis 5.0% (4.0-6.4%), and syphilis 0.5% (0.4-0.6%); among men, estimated chlamydia prevalence was 2.7% (2.0-3.6%), gonorrhoea 0.6% (0.4-0.9%), trichomoniasis 0.6% (0.4-0.8%), and syphilis 0.48% (0.3-0.7%). These figures correspond to an estimated 131 million new cases of chlamydia (100-166 million), 78 million of gonorrhoea (53-110 million), 143 million of trichomoniasis (98-202 million), and 6 million of syphilis (4-8 million). Prevalence and incidence estimates varied by region and sex. CONCLUSIONS Estimates of the global prevalence and incidence of chlamydia, gonorrhoea, trichomoniasis, and syphilis in adult women and men remain high, with nearly one million new infections with curable STI each day. The estimates highlight the urgent need for the public health community to ensure that well-recognized effective interventions for STI prevention, screening, diagnosis, and treatment are made more widely available. Improved estimation methods are needed to allow use of more varied data and generation of estimates at the national level.