Moral Politics: The Religious Factor in Referenda Voting

This article combines the research strands of moral politics and political behavior by focusing on the effect of individual and contextual religiosity on individual vote decisions in popular initiatives and public referenda concerning morally charged issues. We rely on a total of 13 surveys with 1,000 respondents each conducted after every referendum on moral policies in Switzerland between 1992 and 2012. Results based on cross-classified multilevel models show that religious behaving instead of nominal religious belonging plays a crucial role in decision making on moral issues. This supports the idea that the traditional confessional cleavage is replaced by a new religious cleavage that divides the religious from the secular. This newer cleavage is characterized by party alignments that extend from electoral to direct democratic voting behavior. Overall, our study lends support to previous findings drawn from American research on moral politics, direct democracies, and the public role of religion.

Strategic use of serology for the diagnosis of bovine tuberculosis after intradermal skin testing

Diagnostic tests based on cell-mediated immunity are used in programmes for eradication of bovine tuberculosis (Mycobacterium bovis). Serological assays could be applied as ancillary methods to detect infected animals. Our objective was to evaluate two serological techniques: M. bovis Ab Test (IDEXX, USA) and Enferplex™ TB assay (Enfer, Ireland) in animals tested simultaneously with the single and comparative intradermal tests and the interferon-gamma assay. This work was performed at two stages. First, a preliminary panel of samples collected prior to intradermal tests from tuberculosis-free (n=60) and M. bovis-infected herds (n=78) was assayed, obtaining high specificity: 100% (M. bovis Ab Test) and 98.3% (Enferplex TB assay) but low sensitivity (detection of M. bovis infected animals): 23.9% (M. bovis Ab Test) and 32.6% (Enferplex TB assay). Subsequently, the use of serological techniques was further studied in two herds with M. bovis infection (n=77) using samples collected prior to, and 72 h and 15 days after PPD inoculation. The highest level of detection of infected animals for serology was achieved at 15 days post-intradermal tests taking advantage of the anamnestic effect: 70.4% and 85.2% in herd A, and 66.7% and 83.3% in herd B, using M. bovis Ab Test and Enferplex TB assay, respectively. Quantitative results (average values obtained with M. bovis Ab Test ELISA and degree of positivity obtained with Enferplex TB assay) were higher in animals showing lesions compatible with tuberculosis. No significant differences were observed in the number of confirmed infected animals detected with either serological technique.

Kidney disease in antiretroviral-naïve HIV-positive adults with high CD4 counts: prevalence and predictors of kidney disease at enrolment in the INSIGHT Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment (START) trial.

OBJECTIVES HIV infection has been associated with an increased risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Little is known about the prevalence of CKD in individuals with high CD4 cell counts prior to initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART). We sought to address this knowledge gap. METHODS We describe the prevalence of CKD among 4637 ART-naïve adults (mean age 36.8 years) with CD4 cell counts > 500 cells/μL at enrolment in the Strategic Timing of AntiRetroviral Treatment (START) study. CKD was defined by estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) and/or dipstick urine protein ≥ 1+. Logistic regression was used to identify baseline characteristics associated with CKD. RESULTS Among 286 [6.2%; 95% confidence interval (CI) 5.5%, 6.9%] participants with CKD, the majority had isolated proteinuria. A total of 268 participants had urine protein ≥ 1+, including 41 with urine protein ≥ 2+. Only 22 participants (0.5%) had an estimated glomerular filtration rate < 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) , including four who also had proteinuria. Baseline characteristics independently associated with CKD included diabetes [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.73; 95% CI 1.05, 2.85], hypertension (aOR 1.82; 95% CI 1.38, 2.38), and race/ethnicity (aOR 0.59; 95% CI 0.37, 0.93 for Hispanic vs. white). CONCLUSIONS We observed a low prevalence of CKD associated with traditional CKD risk factors among ART-naïve clinical trial participants with CD4 cell counts > 500 cells/μL.

Voting Power and Probability

Voting power is commonly measured using a probability. But what kind of probability is this? Is it a degree of belief or an objective chance or some other sort of probability? The aim of this paper is to answer this question. The answer depends on the use to which a measure of voting power is put. Some objectivist interpretations of probabilities are appropriate when we employ such a measure for descriptive purposes. By contrast, when voting power is used to normatively assess voting rules, the probabilities are best understood as classical probabilities, which count possibilities. This is so because, from a normative stance, voting power is most plausibly taken to concern rights and thus possibilities. The classical interpretation also underwrites the use of the Bernoulli model upon which the Penrose/Banzhaf measure is based.

Loyal to the Game? Strategic Policy Representation in Mixed Electoral Systems

In Germany's compensatory mixed electoral system, alternative electoral routes lead into parliament. We study the relationship between candidates' electoral situations across both tiers and policy representation, fully accounting for candidate, party and district preferences in a multi-actor constellation and the exact electoral incentives for candidates to represent either the party or the district. The results (2009 Bundestag election data) yield evidence of an interactive effect of closeness of the district race and list safety on candidates' positioning between their party and constituency.

Strategic Incentives in Unconventional Electoral Systems: Introduction to the Special Issue

The study of strategic behaviour and the impact of institutions on elections has mainly focused on simple and conventional electoral systems: list-proportional electoral systems (PR) and the plurality vote. Less conventional systems are not on the agenda of comparative studies, even though no less than 30% of countries use unconventional electoral systems for their national parliamentary elections, such as the Single Transferable Vote, PR with majority bonuses, or mixed electoral systems. Often, they provide for unusual combinations of different institutional incentives, and hence to particular actor strategies.

In Search of Political Influence: Strategic Choices and Media Coverage of Political Parties, Interest Groups and Social Movements in Western European Countries

Outside lobbying is a key strategy for social movements, interest groups and political parties for mobilising public opinion through the media in order to pressure policymakers and influence the policymaking process. Relying on semi-structured interviews and newspaper content analysis in six Western European countries, this article examines the use of four outside lobbying strategies – media-related activities, informing (about) the public, mobilisation and protest – and the amount of media coverage they attract. While some strategies are systematically less pursued than others, we find variation in their relative share across institutional contexts and actor types. Given that most of these differences are not accurately mirrored in the media, we conclude that media coverage is only loosely connected to outside lobbying behaviour, and that the media respond differently to a given strategy when used by different actors. Thus, the ability of different outside lobbying strategies to generate media coverage critically depends on who makes use of them.

The Strategic Role of the Sales Force: Perceptions of Senior Sales Executives

Current models of sales force strategy imply formidable information processing demands, which leads us to take a cognitive approach to studying the issue of sales force strategy. We focus on how top-level executives use mental models of sales force performance to simplify the issue of sales force strategy. We interviewed 74 senior executives responsible for their firms’ selling function using the repertory grid approach, as this methodology has been shown to be particularly effective at uncovering the collective cognitive maps on which executives’ decisions and behaviors are based. Executives identified a broad set of 37 strategic concepts that they felt distinguish the sales force efforts of directly competing companies. A second set of sales executives classified the 37 concepts into capabilities, resources, and organizational context concepts. Based on the classification results and feedback from both sets of executives, we developed research propositions for examining sales force strategy and provide directions for future research.