Sizing up your enemy: individual predation vulnerability predicts migratory probability

Partial migration, in which a fraction of a population migrate and the rest remain resident, occurs in an extensive range of species and can have powerful ecological consequences. The question of what drives differences in individual migratory tendency is a contentious one. It has been shown that the timing of partial migration is based upon a trade-off between seasonal fluctuations in predation risk and growth potential. Phenotypic variation in either individual predation risk or growth potential should thus mediate the strength of the trade-off and ultimately predict patterns of partial migration at the individual level (i.e. which individuals migrate and which remain resident). We provide cross-population empirical support for the importance of one component of this model—individual predation risk—in predicting partial migration in wild populations of bream Abramis brama, a freshwater fish. Smaller, high-risk individuals migrate with a higher probability than larger, low-risk individuals, and we suggest that predation risk maintains size-dependent partial migration in this system.

Safety and Feasibility of a Diagnostic Algorithm Combining Clinical Probability, d-Dimer Testing, and Ultrasonography for Suspected Upper Extremity Deep Venous Thrombosis: A Prospective Management Study.

BACKGROUND Although well-established for suspected lower limb deep venous thrombosis, an algorithm combining a clinical decision score, d-dimer testing, and ultrasonography has not been evaluated for suspected upper extremity deep venous thrombosis (UEDVT). OBJECTIVE To assess the safety and feasibility of a new diagnostic algorithm in patients with clinically suspected UEDVT. DESIGN Diagnostic management study. (ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01324037) SETTING: 16 hospitals in Europe and the United States. PATIENTS 406 inpatients and outpatients with suspected UEDVT. MEASUREMENTS The algorithm consisted of the sequential application of a clinical decision score, d-dimer testing, and ultrasonography. Patients were first categorized as likely or unlikely to have UEDVT; in those with an unlikely score and normal d-dimer levels, UEDVT was excluded. All other patients had (repeated) compression ultrasonography. The primary outcome was the 3-month incidence of symptomatic UEDVT and pulmonary embolism in patients with a normal diagnostic work-up. RESULTS The algorithm was feasible and completed in 390 of the 406 patients (96%). In 87 patients (21%), an unlikely score combined with normal d-dimer levels excluded UEDVT. Superficial venous thrombosis and UEDVT were diagnosed in 54 (13%) and 103 (25%) patients, respectively. All 249 patients with a normal diagnostic work-up, including those with protocol violations (n = 16), were followed for 3 months. One patient developed UEDVT during follow-up, for an overall failure rate of 0.4% (95% CI, 0.0% to 2.2%). LIMITATIONS This study was not powered to show the safety of the substrategies. d-Dimer testing was done locally. CONCLUSION The combination of a clinical decision score, d-dimer testing, and ultrasonography can safely and effectively exclude UEDVT. If confirmed by other studies, this algorithm has potential as a standard approach to suspected UEDVT. PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE None.

Bounds for the probability generating functional of a Gibbs point process

We derive explicit lower and upper bounds for the probability generating functional of a stationary locally stable Gibbs point process, which can be applied to summary statistics such as the F function. For pairwise interaction processes we obtain further estimates for the G and K functions, the intensity, and higher-order correlation functions. The proof of the main result is based on Stein's method for Poisson point process approximation.

Adaption of cardio-respiratory balance during day-rest compared to deep sleep—An indicator for quality of life?

Heart rate and breathing rate fluctuations represent interacting physiological oscillations. These interactions are commonly studied using respiratory sinus arrhythmia (RSA) of heart rate variability (HRV) or analyzing cardiorespiratory synchronization. Earlier work has focused on a third type of relationship, the temporal ratio of respiration rate and heart rate (HRR). Each method seems to reveal a specific aspect of cardiorespiratory interaction and may be suitable for assessing states of arousal and relaxation of the organism. We used HRR in a study with 87 healthy subjects to determine the ability to relax during 5 day-resting periods in comparison to deep sleep relaxation. The degree to which a person during waking state could relax was compared to somatic complaints, health-related quality of life, anxiety and depression. Our results show, that HRR is barely connected to balance (LF/HF) in HRV, but significantly correlates to the perception of general health and mental well-being as well as to depression. If relaxation, as expressed in HRR, during day-resting is near to deep sleep relaxation, the subjects felt healthier, indicated better mental well-being and less depressive moods.

Uniqueness of the Embedding Continuous Convolution Semigroup of a Gaussian Probability Measure on the Affine Group and an Application in Mathematical Finance

Let {μ(i)t}t≥0 ( i=1,2 ) be continuous convolution semigroups (c.c.s.) of probability measures on Aff(1) (the affine group on the real line). Suppose that μ(1)1=μ(2)1 . Assume furthermore that {μ(1)t}t≥0 is a Gaussian c.c.s. (in the sense that its generating distribution is a sum of a primitive distribution and a second-order differential operator). Then μ(1)t=μ(2)t for all t≥0 . We end up with a possible application in mathematical finance.

An indicator framework for assessing livelihood resilience in the context of social–ecological dynamics

Livelihood resilience draws attention to the factors and processes that keep livelihoods functioning despite change and thus enriches the livelihood approach which puts people, their differential capabilities to cope with shocks and how to reduce poverty and improve adaptive capacity at the centre of analysis. However, the few studies addressing resilience from a livelihood perspective take different approaches and focus only on some dimensions of livelihoods. This paper presents a framework that can be used for a comprehensive empirical analysis of livelihood resilience. We use a concept of resilience that considers agency as well as structure. A review of both theoretical and empirical literature related to livelihoods and resilience served as the basis to integrate the perspectives. The paper identifies the attributes and indicators of the three dimensions of resilience, namely, buffer capacity, self-organisation and capacity for learning. The framework has not yet been systematically tested; however, potentials and limitations of the components of the framework are explored and discussed by drawing on empirical examples from literature on farming systems. Besides providing a basis for applying the resilience concept in livelihood-oriented research, the framework offers a way to communicate with practitioners on identifying and improving the factors that build resilience. It can thus serve as a tool for monitoring the effectiveness of policies and practices aimed at building livelihood resilience.

The tumor border configuration of colorectal cancer as a histomorphological prognostic indicator.

Histomorphological features of colorectal cancers (CRC) represent valuable prognostic indicators for clinical decision making. The invasive margin is a central feature for prognostication shaped by the complex processes governing tumor-host interaction. Assessment of the tumor border can be performed on standard paraffin sections and shows promise for integration into the diagnostic routine of gastrointestinal pathology. In aggressive CRC, an extensive dissection of host tissue is seen with loss of a clear tumor-host interface. This pattern, termed "infiltrative tumor border configuration" has been consistently associated with poor survival outcome and early disease recurrence of CRC-patients. In addition, infiltrative tumor growth is frequently associated with presence of adverse clinicopathological features and molecular alterations related to aggressive tumor behavior including BRAFV600 mutation. In contrast, a well-demarcated "pushing" tumor border is seen frequently in CRC-cases with low risk for nodal and distant metastasis. A pushing border is a feature frequently associated with mismatch-repair deficiency and can be used to identify patients for molecular testing. Consequently, assessment of the tumor border configuration as an additional prognostic factor is recommended by the AJCC/UICC to aid the TNM-classification. To promote the assessment of the tumor border configuration in standard practice, consensus criteria on the defining features and method of assessment need to be developed further and tested for inter-observer reproducibility. The development of a standardized quantitative scoring system may lay the basis for verification of the prognostic associations of the tumor growth pattern in multivariate analyses and clinical trials. This article provides a comprehensive review of the diagnostic features, clinicopathological associations, and molecular alterations associated with the tumor border configuration in early stage and advanced CRC.

Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging detects significant prostate cancer with high probability

PURPOSE We prospectively assessed the diagnostic accuracy of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging for detecting significant prostate cancer. MATERIALS AND METHODS We performed a prospective study of 111 consecutive men with prostate and/or bladder cancer who underwent 3 Tesla diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging of the pelvis without an endorectal coil before radical prostatectomy (78) or cystoprostatectomy (33). Three independent readers blinded to clinical and pathological data assigned a prostate cancer suspicion grade based on qualitative imaging analysis. Final pathology results of prostates with and without cancer served as the reference standard. Primary outcomes were the sensitivity and specificity of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging for detecting significant prostate cancer with significance defined as a largest diameter of the index lesion of 1 cm or greater, extraprostatic extension, or Gleason score 7 or greater on final pathology assessment. Secondary outcomes were interreader agreement assessed by the Fleiss κ coefficient and image reading time. RESULTS Of the 111 patients 93 had prostate cancer, which was significant in 80 and insignificant in 13, and 18 had no prostate cancer on final pathology results. The sensitivity and specificity of diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging for detecting significant PCa was 89% to 91% and 77% to 81%, respectively, for the 3 readers. Interreader agreement was good (Fleiss κ 0.65 to 0.74). Median reading time was between 13 and 18 minutes. CONCLUSIONS Diffusion-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (3 Tesla) is a noninvasive technique that allows for the detection of significant prostate cancer with high probability without contrast medium or an endorectal coil, and with good interreader agreement and a short reading time. This technique should be further evaluated as a tool to stratify patients with prostate cancer for individualized treatment options.

Voting Power and Probability

Voting power is commonly measured using a probability. But what kind of probability is this? Is it a degree of belief or an objective chance or some other sort of probability? The aim of this paper is to answer this question. The answer depends on the use to which a measure of voting power is put. Some objectivist interpretations of probabilities are appropriate when we employ such a measure for descriptive purposes. By contrast, when voting power is used to normatively assess voting rules, the probabilities are best understood as classical probabilities, which count possibilities. This is so because, from a normative stance, voting power is most plausibly taken to concern rights and thus possibilities. The classical interpretation also underwrites the use of the Bernoulli model upon which the Penrose/Banzhaf measure is based.