128 resultados para positive predictive value


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INTRODUCTION: Cadaver dogs are known as valuable forensic tools in crime scene investigations. Scientific research attempting to verify their value is largely lacking, specifically for scents associated with the early postmortem interval. The aim of our investigation was the comparative evaluation of the reliability, accuracy, and specificity of three cadaver dogs belonging to the Hamburg State Police in the detection of scents during the early postmortem interval. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Carpet squares were used as an odor transporting media after they had been contaminated with the scent of two recently deceased bodies (PMI<3h). The contamination occurred for 2 min as well as 10 min without any direct contact between the carpet and the corpse. Comparative searches by the dogs were performed over a time period of 65 days (10 min contamination) and 35 days (2 min contamination). RESULTS: The results of this study indicate that the well-trained cadaver dog is an outstanding tool for crime scene investigation displaying excellent sensitivity (75-100), specificity (91-100), and having a positive predictive value (90-100), negative predictive value (90-100) as well as accuracy (92-100).

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OBJECTIVE: Infected pancreatic necrosis is the main cause of death in patients with acute pancreatitis, and therefore its early prediction is of utmost importance. Endogenous cortisol metabolism plays a basic role both in the course of acute pancreatitis and in the process of infection. The purpose of this study was to analyze corticosteroid-binding globulin (CBG), total cortisol, calculated free cortisol and adrenocorticotropic hormone as potential early predictors in order to differentiate between infected pancreatic necrosis and sterile pancreatic necrosis in patients with acute pancreatitis. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Serum levels of CBG, total cortisol, calculated free cortisol, and plasma levels of adrenocorticotropic hormone were determined in 109 consecutive patients with acute pancreatitis. C-reactive protein was measured as the control parameter. Thirty-five patients developed necrotizing pancreatitis and 10 developed infection of the necrosis. Blood was monitored for 6 days after the onset of pain; 30 healthy individuals served as controls. RESULTS: Of all parameters only CBG showed a significant difference (p = 0.0318) in its peak levels measured in the first 48 h in patients with sterile (26.5 microg/ml, range 21.3-34.7) and infected (16.0 microg/ml, range 15.2-25.0) necrosis at a cut-off level of 16.8 microg/ml. That difference was further preserved for the first 6 days after onset of pain. CONCLUSIONS: In our group of patients, a decreased CBG level below 16.8 g/ml within the initial 48 h of acute pancreatitis was an early predictor of later infected pancreatic necrosis, with a positive predictive value of 100% and a negative predictive value of 87.5%.

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Objective-To evaluate pulsed-wave Doppler spectral parameters as a method for distinguishing between neoplastic and inflammatory peripheral lymphadenopathy in dogs. Sample Population-40 superficial lymph nodes from 33 dogs with peripheral lymphadenopathy. Procedures-3 Doppler spectral tracings were recorded from each node. Spectral Doppler analysis including assessment of the resistive index, peak systolic velocity-to-end diastolic velocity (S:D) ratio, diastolic notch velocity-to-peak systolic velocity (N:S) ratio, and end diastolic velocity-to-diastolic notch velocity ratio was performed for each tracing. Several calculation methods were used to determine the Doppler indices for each lymph node. After the ultrasonographic examination, fine needle aspirates or excisional biopsy specimens of the examined lymph nodes were obtained, and lymphadenopathy was classified as either inflammatory or neoplastic (lymphomatous or metastatic) via cytologic or histologic examination. Results of Doppler analysis were compared with cytologic or histopathologic findings. Results-The Doppler index with the highest diagnostic accuracy was the S:D ratio calculated from the first recorded tracing; a cutoff value of 3.22 yielded sensitivity of 91%, specificity of 100%, and negative predictive value of 89% for detection of neoplasia. Overall diagnostic accuracy was 95%. At a sensitivity of 100%, the most accurate index was the N:S ratio calculated from the first recorded tracing; a cutoff value of 0.45 yielded specificity of 67%, positive predictive value of 81%, and overall diagnostic accuracy of 86.5%. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance-Results suggested that noninvasive Doppler spectral analysis may be useful in the diagnosis of neoplastic versus inflammatory peripheral lymphadenopathy in dogs.

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BACKGROUND: Left anterior hemiblock (LAHB) is the most frequent conduction abnormality, but its impact on the diagnostic accuracy of the exercise ECG has not been studied. The aim of our study was to determine the diagnostic accuracy of ST depression for predicting ischaemia in the presence of LAHB. PATIENTS: Consecutive patients with known or suspected coronary heart disease undergoing exercise ECG and 99mTc-sestamibi single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) were included in the analysis. Patients with left bundle branch block, with changes in QRS morphology related to myocardial infarction, and patients who had undergone pharmacological stress testing were excluded. RESULTS: Of 1532 patients assessed, 567 patients qualified for the analysis. In 69 patients with LAHB, ECG stress testing had lower sensitivity (38% vs 86%) and lower negative predictive value (82% vs 92%) than in patients with normal baseline ECG. The reduction of sensitivity appeared to be similar in patients with isolated LAHB (n=43), in patients with right bundle branch block (n=39), and with bifascicular block (n=26). In contrast, the positive predictive value of the test was excellent. CONCLUSION: The diagnostic accuracy of the exercise ECG for prediction of ischaemia is reduced in patients with LAHB.

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BACKGROUND: Although urinalysis is simple and inexpensive to perform, the finding of microhaematuria on urinalysis may be unreliable for diagnosing urolithiasis. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate microhaematuria as a diagnostic marker for urolithiasis compared with low-dose unenhanced multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) as the "gold standard". SETTING: A level 1 emergency department in a tertiary referral university teaching hospital. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis. METHODS: A study was undertaken to assess whether the finding of microhaematuria was diagnostic for urolithiasis using a low-dose unenhanced MDCT-based diagnosis as the reference standard by reviewing the records of all patients who presented to the emergency department with colicky flank pain and underwent a CT scan between January 2003 and December 2005. RESULTS: Urolithiasis was present (as defined by low-dose unenhanced MDCT) in 507/638 patients (79%); 341/638 (53%) were true positive for urolithiasis, 76 (12%) were true negative, 55 (9%) were false positive and 166 (26%) were false negative. Microhaematuria as a test for urolithiasis in patients presenting to the emergency department therefore has a sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 67%, 58%, 86% and 31%, respectively. 58% of the urinalysis results were negative for haematuria in the subset of patients with significant alternative diagnoses. CONCLUSIONS: The sensitivity, specificity and negative predictive value of microhaematuria on urinalysis for urolithiasis using unenhanced MDCT as the reference standard were low. This suggests that, when urolithiasis is clinically suspected, unenhanced MDCT is indicated without urinalysis being a prerequisite.

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OBJECTIVES: To examine the accuracy of the World Health Organization immunological criteria for virological failure of antiretroviral treatment. METHODS: Analysis of 10 treatment programmes in Africa and South America that monitor both CD4 cell counts and HIV-1 viral load. Adult patients with at least two CD4 counts and viral load measurements between month 6 and 18 after starting a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor-based regimen were included. WHO immunological criteria include CD4 counts persistently <100 cells/microl, a fall below the baseline CD4 count, or a fall of >50% from the peak value. Virological failure was defined as two measurements > or =10 0000 copies/ml (higher threshold) or > or =500 copies/ml (lower threshold). Measures of accuracy with exact binomial 95% confidence intervals (CI) were calculated. RESULTS: A total of 2009 patients were included. During 1856 person-years of follow up 63 patients met the immunological criteria and 35 patients (higher threshold) and 95 patients (lower threshold) met the virological criteria. Sensitivity [95% confidence interval (CI)] was 17.1% (6.6-33.6%) for the higher and 12.6% (6.7-21.0%) for the lower threshold. Corresponding results for specificity were 97.1% (96.3-97.8%) and 97.3% (96.5-98.0%), for positive predictive value 9.5% (3.6-19.6%) and 19.0% (10.2-30.9%) and for negative predictive value 98.5% (97.9-99.0%) and 95.7% (94.7-96.6%). CONCLUSIONS: The positive predictive value of the WHO immunological criteria for virological failure of antiretroviral treatment in resource-limited settings is poor, but the negative predictive value is high. Immunological criteria are more appropriate for ruling out than for ruling in virological failure in resource-limited settings.

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BACKGROUND From January 2011 onward, the Swiss newborn screening (NBS) program has included a test for cystic fibrosis (CF). In this study, we evaluate the first year of implementation of the CF-NBS program. METHODS The CF-NBS program consists of testing in two steps: a heel prick sample is drawn (= Guthrie test) for measurement of immunoreactive trypsinogen (IRT) and for DNA screening. All children with a positive screening test are referred to a CF center for further diagnostic testing (sweat test and genetic analysis). After assessment in the CF center, the parents are given a questionnaire. All the results of the screening process and the parent questionnaires were centrally collected and evaluated. RESULTS In 2011, 83 198 neonates were screened, 84 of whom (0.1%) had a positive screening result and were referred to a CF center. 30 of these 84 infants were finally diagnosed with CF (positive predictive value: 35.7%). There was an additional infant with CF and meconium ileus whose IRT value was normal. The 31 diagnosed children with CF correspond to an incidence of 1 : 2683. The average time from birth to genetically confirmed diagnosis was 34 days (range: 13-135). 91% of the parents were satisfied that their child had undergone screening. All infants receiving a diagnosis of CF went on to receive further professional care in a CF center. CONCLUSION The suggested procedure for CF-NBS has been found effective in practice; there were no major problems with its implementation. It reached high acceptance among physicians and parents.

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UNLABELLED The abnormal development of the tricuspid valve in patients with Ebstein's anomaly results in several activation abnormalities including delayed intraatrial conduction, right bundle branch block (RBBB), and ventricular preexcitation. The aim of the present study was to define the ECG characteristics before and after ablation of an accessory A-V pathway (AP) in patients with Ebstein's anomaly. METHODS A series of 226 consecutive patients with Ebstein's anomaly was studied. Sixty-four patients (28%) had documented tachycardia. Thirty-three patients with recurrent tachycardia were found to have a single right-sided AP that was successfully ablated (study group). Thirty patients without tachycardia served as the control group. RESULTS Only 21 of 33 patients (62%) had a typical ECG pattern of preexcitation. In addition, none of the patients had an ECG pattern of RBBB during sinus rhythm. In contrast, 28 of 30 (93%) patients in the control group had RBBB (P < 0.001). Radiofrequency catheter ablation resulted in appearance of RBBB in 31 of 33 (94%) patients. The absence of RBBB in patients with Ebstein's anomaly and recurrent tachycardia had a 98% sensitivity and 92% specificity for the diagnosis of an AP. The positive predictive value was 91% (0.77, 0.97 CI 95%) and the negative predictive value was 98% (0.85, 0.99 CI 95%). CONCLUSION One-third of patients with Ebstein's anomaly and symptomatic tachyarrhythmias have minimal or absent ECG features of ventricular preexcitation. In these patients, the absence of RBBB pattern is a strong predictor of an AP.

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BACKGROUND Cytology is an excellent method with which to diagnose preinvasive lesions of the uterine cervix, but it suffers from limited specificity for clinically significant lesions. Supplementary methods might predict the natural course of the detected lesions. The objective of the current study was to test whether a multicolor fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) assay might help to stratify abnormal results of Papanicolaou tests. METHODS A total of 219 liquid-based cytology specimens of low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL), 49 atypical squamous cells of undetermined significance (ASCUS) specimens, 52 high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion (HSIL) specimens, and 50 normal samples were assessed by FISH with probes for the human papillomavirus (HPV), MYC, and telomerase RNA component (TERC). Subtyping of HPV by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was performed in a subset of cases (n=206). RESULTS There was a significant correlation found between HPV detection by FISH and PCR (P<.0001). In patients with LSILs, the presence of HPV detected by FISH was significantly associated with disease progression (P<.0001). An increased MYC and/or TERC gene copy number (>2 signals in>10% of cells) prevailed in 43% of ASCUS specimens and was more frequent in HSIL (85%) than in LSIL (33%) (HSIL vs LSIL: P<.0001). Increased TERC gene copy number was significantly correlated with progression of LSIL (P<.01; odds ratio, 7.44; area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.73; positive predictive value, 0.30; negative predictive value, 0.94) CONCLUSIONS: The detection of HPV by FISH analysis is feasible in liquid-based cytology and is significantly correlated with HPV analysis by PCR. The analysis of TERC gene copy number may be useful for risk stratification in patients with LSIL.

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BACKGROUND Small benign insulinomas are hard to localise, leading to difficulties in planning of surgical interventions. We aimed to prospectively assess the insulinoma detection rate of single-photon emission CT in combination with CT (SPECT/CT) with a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor avid radiotracer, and compare detection rates with conventional CT/MRI techniques. METHODS In our prospective imaging study, we enrolled adults aged 25-81 years at centres in Germany, Switzerland, and the UK. Eligible patients had proven clinical and biochemical endogenous hyperinsulinaemic hypoglycaemia and no evidence for metastatic disease on conventional imaging. CT/MRI imaging was done at referring centres according to standard protocols. At three tertiary nuclear medicine centres, we used whole body planar images and SPECT/CT of the abdomen up to 168 h after injection of (111)In-[Lys40(Ahx-DTPA-(111)In)NH2]-exendin-4 ((111)In-DTPA-exendin-4) to identify insulinomas. Consenting patients underwent surgery and imaging findings were confirmed histologically. FINDINGS Between Oct 1, 2008, and Dec 31, 2011, we recruited 30 patients. All patients underwent (111)In-DTPA-exendin-4 imaging, 25 patients underwent surgery (with histological analysis), and 27 patients were assessed with CT/MRI. (111)In-DTPA-exendin-4 SPECT/CT correctly detected 19 insulinomas and four additional positive lesions (two islet-cell hyperplasia and two uncharacterised lesions) resulting in a positive predictive value of 83% (95% CI 62-94). One true negative (islet-cell hyperplasia) and one false negative (malignant insulinoma) result was identified in separate patients by (111)In-DTPA-exendin-4 SPECT/CT. Seven patients (23%) were referred to surgery on the basis of (111)In-DTPA-exendin-4 imaging alone. For 23 assessable patients, (111)In-DTPA-exendin-4 SPECT/CT had a higher sensitivity (95% [95% CI 74-100]) than did CT/MRI (47% [27-68]; p=0·011). INTERPRETATION (111)In-DTPA-exendin-4 SPECT/CT could provide a good second-line imaging strategy for patients with negative results on initial imaging with CT/MRI. FUNDING Oncosuisse, the Swiss National Science Foundation, and UK Department of Health.

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BACKGROUND Multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) may be useful to identify patients with patent foramen ovale (PFO). The aim of this study was to analyze whether a MDCT performed before pulmonary vein isolation reliably detects a PFO that may be used for access to the left atrium. METHODS AND RESULTS In 79 consecutive patients, who were referred for catheter ablation of symptomatic paroxysmal or persistent atrial fibrillation (AF), the presence of a PFO was explored by MDCT and transesophageal echocardiography (TEE). TEE was considered as the gold standard, and quality of TEE was good in all patients. In 16 patients (20.3%), MDCT could not be used for analysis because of artifacts, mainly because of AF. On TEE, a PFO was found in 15 (23.8%) of the 63 patients with usable MDCT. MDCT detected six PFO of which four were present on TEE. This corresponded to a sensitivity of 26.7%, a specificity of 95.8%, a negative predictive value of 80.7%, and a positive predictive value of 66.7%. The receiver operating characteristics curve of MDCT for the detection of PFO was 0.613 (95% confidence interval 0.493-0.732). CONCLUSIONS MDCT may detect a PFO before pulmonary isolation. However, presence of AF may lead to artifacts on MDCT impeding a meaningful analysis. Furthermore, in this study sensitivity and positive predictive value of MDCT were low and therefore MDCT was not a reliable screening tool for detection of PFO.

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Background: To detect attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in treatment seeking substance use disorders (SUD) patients, a valid screening instrument is needed. Objectives: To test the performance of the Adult ADHD Self-Report Scale V 1.1(ASRS) for adult ADHD in an international sample of treatment seeking SUD patients for DSM-IV-TR; for the proposed DSM-5 criteria; in different subpopulations, at intake and 1–2 weeks after intake; using different scoring algorithms; and different externalizing disorders as external criterion (including adult ADHD, bipolar disorder, antisocial and borderline personality disorder). Methods: In 1138 treatment seeking SUD subjects, ASRS performance was determined using diagnoses based on Conner's Adult ADHD Diagnostic Interview for DSM-IV (CAADID) as gold standard. Results: The prevalence of adult ADHD was 13.0% (95% CI: 11.0–15.0%). The overall positive predictive value (PPV) of the ASRS was 0.26 (95% CI: 0.22–0.30), the negative predictive value (NPV) was 0.97 (95% CI: 0.96–0.98). The sensitivity (0.84, 95% CI: 0.76–0.88) and specificity (0.66, 95% CI: 0.63–0.69) measured at admission were similar to the sensitivity (0.88, 95% CI: 0.83–0.93) and specificity (0.67, 95% CI: 0.64–0.70) measured 2 weeks after admission. Sensitivity was similar, but specificity was significantly better in patients with alcohol compared to (illicit) drugs as the primary substance of abuse (0.76 vs. 0.56). ASRS was not a good screener for externalizing disorders other than ADHD. Conclusions: The ASRS is a sensitive screener for identifying possible ADHD cases with very few missed cases among those screening negative in this population.

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Background. A nonrecognized pneumothorax (PTX) may become a life-threatening tension PTX. A reliable point-of-care diagnostic tool could help in reduce this risk. For this purpose, we investigated the feasibility of the use of the PneumoScan, an innovative device based on micropower impulse radar (MIR). Patients and Methods. addition to a standard diagnostic protocol including clinical examination, chest X-ray (CXR), and computed tomography (CT), 24 consecutive patients with chest trauma underwent PneumoScan testing in the shock trauma room to exclude a PTX. Results. The application of the PneumoScan was simple, quick, and reliable without functional disorder. Clinical examination and CXR each revealed one and PneumoScan three out of altogether four PTXs (sensitivity 75%, specificity 100%, positive predictive value 100%, and negative predictive value 95%). The undetected PTX did not require intervention. Conclusion. The PneumoScan as a point-of-care device offers additional diagnostic value in patient management following chest trauma. Further studies with more patients have to be performed to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the device.

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RATIONALE Not all patients with acute pulmonary embolism (PE) have a high risk of an adverse short-term outcome. OBJECTIVES This prospective cohort study aimed to develop a multimarker prognostic model that accurately classifies normotensive patients with PE into low and high categories of risk of adverse medical outcomes. METHODS The study enrolled 848 outpatients from the PROTECT (PROgnosTic valuE of Computed Tomography) study (derivation cohort) and 529 patients from the Prognostic Factors for Pulmonary Embolism (PREP) study (validation cohort). Investigators assessed study participants for a 30-day complicated course, defined as death from any cause, hemodynamic collapse, and/or adjudicated recurrent PE. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS A complicated course occurred in 63 (7.4%) of the 848 normotensive patients with acute symptomatic PE in the derivation cohort and in 24 patients (4.5%) in the validation cohort. The final model included the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index, cardiac troponin I, brain natriuretic peptide, and lower limb ultrasound testing. The model performed similarly in the derivation (c-index of 0.75) and validation (c-index of 0.85) cohorts. The combination of the simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index and brain natriuretic peptide testing showed a negative predictive value for a complicated course of 99.1 and 100% in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The combination of all modalities had a positive predictive value for the prediction of a complicated course of 25.8% in the derivation cohort and 21.2% in the validation cohort. CONCLUSIONS For normotensive patients who have acute PE, we derived and validated a multimarker model that predicts all-cause mortality, hemodynamic collapse, and/or recurrent PE within the following 30 days.

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BACKGROUND Rapid pulmonary vein (PV) activity has been shown to maintain paroxysmal atrial fibrillation (AF). We evaluated in persistent AF the cycle length (CL) gradient between PVs and the left atrium (LA) in an attempt to identify the subset of patients where PVs play an important role. METHODS AND RESULTS Ninety-seven consecutive patients undergoing first ablation for persistent AF were studied. For each PV, the CL of the fastest activation was assessed over 1 minute (PVfast) using Lasso recordings. The PV to LA CL gradient was quantified by the ratio of PVfast to LA appendage (LAA) AF CL. Stepwise ablation terminated AF in 73 patients (75%). In the AF termination group, the PVfast CL was much shorter than the LAA CL resulting in lower PVfast/LAA ratios compared with the nontermination group (71±10% versus 92±7%; P<0.001). Within the termination group, PVfast/LAA ratios were notably lower if AF terminated after PV isolation or limited adjunctive substrate ablation compared with patients who required moderate or extensive ablation (63±6% versus 75±8%; P<0.001). PVfast/LAA ratio <69% predicted AF termination after PV isolation or limited substrate ablation with 74% positive predictive value and 95% negative predictive value. After a mean follow-up of 29±17 months, freedom from arrhythmia recurrence off-antiarrhythmic drugs was achieved in most patients with PVfast/LAA ratios <69% as opposed to the remaining population (80% versus 43%; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS The PV to LA CL gradient may identify the subset of patients in whom persistent AF is likely to terminate after PV isolation or limited substrate ablation and better long-term outcomes are achieved.