Paleoclimate data-model comparison and the role of climate forcings over the past 1500 years

The past 1500 years provide a valuable opportunity to study the response of the climate system to external forcings. However, the integration of paleoclimate proxies with climate modeling is critical to improving the understanding of climate dynamics. In this paper, a climate system model and proxy records are therefore used to study the role of natural and anthropogenic forcings in driving the global climate. The inverse and forward approaches to paleoclimate data–model comparison are applied, and sources of uncertainty are identified and discussed. In the first of two case studies, the climate model simulations are compared with multiproxy temperature reconstructions. Robust solar and volcanic signals are detected in Southern Hemisphere temperatures, with a possible volcanic signal detected in the Northern Hemisphere. The anthropogenic signal dominates during the industrial period. It is also found that seasonal and geographical biases may cause multiproxy reconstructions to overestimate the magnitude of the long-term preindustrial cooling trend. In the second case study, the model simulations are compared with a coral δ18O record from the central Pacific Ocean. It is found that greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, and volcanic eruptions all influence the mean state of the central Pacific, but there is no evidence that natural or anthropogenic forcings have any systematic impact on El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The proxy climate relationship is found to change over time, challenging the assumption of stationarity that underlies the interpretation of paleoclimate proxies. These case studies demonstrate the value of paleoclimate data–model comparison but also highlight the limitations of current techniques and demonstrate the need to develop alternative approaches.

Drivers of collaboration to mitigate climate change: An illustration of Swiss climate policy over 15 years

Climate change mitigation policy is driven by scientific knowledge and involves actors from the international, national and local decision-making levels. This multi-level and cross-sectoral context requires collaborative management when designing mitigation solutions over time and space. But collaboration in general policymaking settings, and particularly in the complex domain of climate mitigation, is not an easy task. This paper addresses the question of what drives collaboration among collective actors involved in climate mitigation policy. We wish to investigate whether common beliefs or power structures influence collaboration among actors. We adopt a longitudinal approach to grasp differences between the early and more advanced stages of mitigation policy design. We use survey data to investigate actors’ collaboration, beliefs and power, and apply a Stochastic Actor-oriented Model for network dynamics to three subsequent networks in Swiss climate policy between 1995 and 2012. Results show that common beliefs among actors, as well as formal power structures, have a higher impact on collaboration relations than perceived power structures. Furthermore, those effects hold true for decision-making about initial mitigation strategies, but less so for the implementation of those measures.

Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.

Time Heals Some Wounds: Psychological Adjustment To Marital Breakup

Marital breakup is among the most incisive stressors in adult life. While the negative effects of divorce on well-being are well documented in research literature, the large interindividual differences in psychological adaptation to this critical life event over time are still not well understood. Particularly the question, whether marital breakup represents a temporary crisis or rather a chronic strain is still controversially discussed. Against this empirical and theoretical background the aim of this study is to investigate the psychological adaptation (depression, perceived stress and life satisfaction) to marital breakup in a sample of 289 middle aged persons (M = 50.2 years) who were partnered at least 10 years (M = 23. 5 years). We compared two groups: one with a separation within the last 12 months (58 women, 25 men), another with a separation within the last 2-5 years (97 women, 38 men). A group of 441 age-matched married people served as control group. Findings from group comparison reveal that time passed since separation is indeed associated with better psychological adaptation (lower depression and perceived stress rates). Results from regression analyses show that differences in psychological adaptation are a function of neuroticism, resilience, new partnership and time passed since separation. These results provide support for the crisis approach and offer important insights into the process of adaptation to marital breakup, which in can be used for counselling.

Relationship between onset-to-door time and door-to-thrombolysis time: a pooled analysis of 10 dedicated stroke centers

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE Inverse relationship between onset-to-door time (ODT) and door-to-needle time (DNT) in stroke thrombolysis was reported from various registries. We analyzed this relationship and other determinants of DNT in dedicated stroke centers. METHODS Prospectively collected data of consecutive ischemic stroke patients from 10 centers who received IV thrombolysis within 4.5 hours from symptom onset were merged (n=7106). DNT was analyzed as a function of demographic and prehospital variables using regression analyses, and change over time was considered. RESULTS In 6348 eligible patients with known treatment delays, median DNT was 42 minutes and kept decreasing steeply every year (P<0.001). Median DNT of 55 minutes was observed in patients with ODT ≤30 minutes, whereas it declined for patients presenting within the last 30 minutes of the 3-hour time window (median, 33 minutes) and of the 4.5-hour time window (20 minutes). For ODT within the first 30 minutes of the extended time window (181-210 minutes), DNT increased to 42 minutes. DNT was stable for ODT for 30 to 150 minutes (40-45 minutes). We found a weak inverse overall correlation between ODT and DNT (R(2)=-0.12; P<0.001), but it was strong in patients treated between 3 and 4.5 hours (R(2)=-0.75; P<0.001). ODT was independently inversely associated with DNT (P<0.001) in regression analysis. Octogenarians and women tended to have longer DNT. CONCLUSIONS DNT was decreasing steeply over the last years in dedicated stroke centers; however, significant oscillations of in-hospital treatment delays occurred at both ends of the time window. This suggests that further improvements can be achieved, particularly in the elderly.

Time-Series Panel Analysis (TSPA): Multivariate Modeling of Temporal Associations in Psychotherapy Process.

Objective: Processes occurring in the course of psychotherapy are characterized by the simple fact that they unfold in time and that the multiple factors engaged in change processes vary highly between individuals (idiographic phenomena). Previous research, however, has neglected the temporal perspective by its traditional focus on static phenomena, which were mainly assessed at the group level (nomothetic phenomena). To support a temporal approach, the authors introduce time-series panel analysis (TSPA), a statistical methodology explicitly focusing on the quantification of temporal, session-to-session aspects of change in psychotherapy. TSPA-models are initially built at the level of individuals and are subsequently aggregated at the group level, thus allowing the exploration of prototypical models. Method: TSPA is based on vector auto-regression (VAR), an extension of univariate auto-regression models to multivariate time-series data. The application of TSPA is demonstrated in a sample of 87 outpatient psychotherapy patients who were monitored by postsession questionnaires. Prototypical mechanisms of change were derived from the aggregation of individual multivariate models of psychotherapy process. In a 2nd step, the associations between mechanisms of change (TSPA) and pre- to postsymptom change were explored. Results: TSPA allowed a prototypical process pattern to be identified, where patient's alliance and self-efficacy were linked by a temporal feedback-loop. Furthermore, therapist's stability over time in both mastery and clarification interventions was positively associated with better outcomes. Conclusions: TSPA is a statistical tool that sheds new light on temporal mechanisms of change. Through this approach, clinicians may gain insight into prototypical patterns of change in psychotherapy.

Synchronous and Time-Lagged Effects between Occupational Self-Efficacy and Objective and Subjective Career Success: Findings from a Four-Wave and 9-Year Longitudinal Study

We integrated research on the dimensionality of career success into social-cognitive career theory and explored the positive feedback loop between occupational self-efficacy and objective and subjective career success over time (self-efficacy → objective success → subjective success → self-efficacy). Furthermore, we theoretically accounted for synchronous and time-lagged effects, as well as indirect reciprocity between the variables. We tested the proposed model by means of longitudinal structural equation modeling in a 9-year four-wave panel design, by applying a model comparison approach and indirect effect analyses (N = 608 professionals). The findings supported the proposed positive feedback loop between occupational self-efficacy and career success. Supporting our time-based reasoning, the findings showed that unfolding effects between occupational self-efficacy and objective career success take more time (i.e., time-lagged or over time) than unfolding effects between objective and subjective career success, as well as between subjective career success and occupational self-efficacy (i.e., synchronous or concurrently). Indirect effects of past on future occupational self-efficacy via objective and subjective career success were significant, providing support for an indirect reciprocity model. Results are discussed with respect to extensions of social-cognitive career theory and occupational self-efficacy development over time.

Time Course of Antibiotic and Antifungal Concentrations in Corneal Organ Culture.

PURPOSE Contamination with bacteria and/or fungi is a serious complication in organ-cultured corneas. Hence, antibiotic and antifungal agents are added to the culture medium. The concentration of different antimicrobial and antifungal additives to the media over time has so far not been investigated in detail and is the aim of this study. METHODS Nine human fresh corneoscleral discs were stored in corneal culture medium consisting of 2% fetal bovine serum and minimal essential medium. In addition, the culture medium contained 1200 μg/mL penicillin G, 25 μg/mL amphotericin B, 120 μg/mL streptomycin, and 100 μg/mL voriconazole. The concentration of amphotericin B used was 10 times higher than in clinical routine to facilitate its detection. The cultures were kept at 37°C for 28 days. At days 0, 7, 14, 21, and 28, samples of the culture medium were harvested for analysis of antimicrobial concentrations by liquid chromatography and electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry. RESULTS During corneal storage, the concentration of all antibiotics and antifungal agents declined significantly. By day 28, penicillin G was reduced to 14% of the original concentration. Amphotericin B and streptomycin retained approximately 60% of the original concentration to the end of the experiment and voriconazole maintained stable concentrations after an initial decline to approximately 80% at 7 days. CONCLUSIONS Throughout the entire storage period, the concentrations of penicillin G, streptomycin, and voriconazole exceeded the minimum inhibitory concentrations of all common contaminants, obviating the need for a change of the medium for antimicrobial reasons. Based on the minimum inhibitory concentrations and our findings, the initial concentration of amphotericin B should be raised to 5 μg/mL.