Climate and chemistry effects of a regional scale nuclear conflict

Previous studies have highlighted the severity of detrimental effects for life on earth after an assumed regionally limited nuclear war. These effects are caused by climatic, chemical and radiative changes persisting for up to one decade. However, so far only a very limited number of climate model simulations have been performed, giving rise to the question how realistic previous computations have been. This study uses the coupled chemistry climate model (CCM) SOCOL, which belongs to a different family of CCMs than previously used, to investigate the consequences of such a hypothetical nuclear conflict. In accordance with previous studies, the present work assumes a scenario of a nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan, each applying 50 warheads with an individual blasting power of 15 kt ("Hiroshima size") against the major population centers, resulting in the emission of tiny soot particles, which are generated in the firestorms expected in the aftermath of the detonations. Substantial uncertainties related to the calculation of likely soot emissions, particularly concerning assumptions of target fuel loading and targeting of weapons, have been addressed by simulating several scenarios, with soot emissions ranging from 1 to 12 Tg. Their high absorptivity with respect to solar radiation leads to a rapid self-lofting of the soot particles into the strato- and mesosphere within a few days after emission, where they remain for several years. Consequently, the model suggests earth's surface temperatures to drop by several degrees Celsius due to the shielding of solar irradiance by the soot, indicating a major global cooling. In addition, there is a substantial reduction of precipitation lasting 5 to 10 yr after the conflict, depending on the magnitude of the initial soot release. Extreme cold spells associated with an increase in sea ice formation are found during Northern Hemisphere winter, which expose the continental land masses of North America and Eurasia to a cooling of several degrees. In the stratosphere, the strong heating leads to an acceleration of catalytic ozone loss and, consequently, to enhancements of UV radiation at the ground. In contrast to surface temperature and precipitation changes, which show a linear dependence to the soot burden, there is a saturation effect with respect to stratospheric ozone chemistry. Soot emissions of 5 Tg lead to an ozone column reduction of almost 50% in northern high latitudes, while emitting 12 Tg only increases ozone loss by a further 10%. In summary, this study, though using a different chemistry climate model, corroborates the previous investigations with respect to the atmospheric impacts. In addition to these persistent effects, the present study draws attention to episodically cold phases, which would likely add to the severity of human harm worldwide. The best insurance against such a catastrophic development would be the delegitimization of nuclear weapons.

Age affects the adjustment of cognitive control after a conflict: evidence from the bivalency effect

Age affects cognitive control. When facing a conflict, older adults are less able to activate goal-relevant information and inhibit irrelevant information. However, cognitive control also affects the events after a conflict. The purpose of this study was to determine whether age affects the adjustment of cognitive control following a conflict. To this end, we investigated the bivalency effect, that is, the performance slowing occurring after the conflict induced by bivalent stimuli (i.e., stimuli with features for two tasks). In two experiments, we tested young adults (aged 20-30) and older adults (aged 65-85) in a paradigm requiring alternations between three tasks, with bivalent stimuli occasionally occurring on one task. The young adults showed a slowing for all trials following bivalent stimuli. This indicates a widespread and long-lasting bivalency effect, replicating previous findings. In contrast, the older adults showed a more specific and shorter-lived slowing. Thus, age affects the adjustment of cognitive control following a conflict.

Surveillance of bovine tuberculosis and risk estimation of a future reservoir formation in wildlife in Switzerland and Liechtenstein.

Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) caused by Mycobacterium bovis or M. caprae has recently (re-) emerged in livestock and wildlife in all countries bordering Switzerland (CH) and the Principality of Liechtenstein (FL). Comprehensive data for Swiss and Liechtenstein wildlife are not available so far, although two native species, wild boar (Sus scrofa) and red deer (Cervus elaphus elaphus), act as bTB reservoirs elsewhere in continental Europe. Our aims were (1) to assess the occurrence of bTB in these wild ungulates in CH/FL and to reinforce scanning surveillance in all wild mammals; (2) to evaluate the risk of a future bTB reservoir formation in wild boar and red deer in CH/FL. Tissue samples collected from 2009 to 2011 from 434 hunted red deer and wild boar and from eight diseased ungulates with tuberculosis-like lesions were tested by direct real-time PCR and culture to detect mycobacteria of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTBC). Identification of suspicious colonies was attempted by real-time PCR, genotyping and spoligotyping. Information on risk factors for bTB maintenance within wildlife populations was retrieved from the literature and the situation regarding identified factors was assessed for our study areas. Mycobacteria of the MTBC were detected in six out of 165 wild boar (3.6%; 95% CI: 1.4-7.8) but none of the 269 red deer (0%; 0-1.4). M. microti was identified in two MTBC-positive wild boar, while species identification remained unsuccessful in four cases. Main risk factors for bTB maintenance worldwide, including different causes of aggregation often resulting from intensive wildlife management, are largely absent in CH and FL. In conclusion, M. bovis and M. caprae were not detected but we report for the first time MTBC mycobacteria in Swiss wild boar. Present conditions seem unfavorable for a reservoir emergence, nevertheless increasing population numbers of wild ungulates and offal consumption may represent a risk.

Wildlife health investigations: needs, challenges and recommendations.

In a fast changing world with growing concerns about biodiversity loss and an increasing number of animal and human diseases emerging from wildlife, the need for effective wildlife health investigations including both surveillance and research is now widely recognized. However, procedures applicable to and knowledge acquired from studies related to domestic animal and human health can be on partly extrapolated to wildlife. This article identifies requirements and challenges inherent in wildlife health investigations, reviews important definitions and novel health investigation methods, and proposes tools and strategies for effective wildlife health surveillance programs. Impediments to wildlife health investigations are largely related to zoological, behavioral and ecological characteristics of wildlife populations and to limited access to investigation materials. These concerns should not be viewed as insurmountable but it is imperative that they are considered in study design, data analysis and result interpretation. It is particularly crucial to remember that health surveillance does not begin in the laboratory but in the fields. In this context, participatory approaches and mutual respect are essential. Furthermore, interdisciplinarity and open minds are necessary because a wide range of tools and knowledge from different fields need to be integrated in wildlife health surveillance and research. The identification of factors contributing to disease emergence requires the comparison of health and ecological data over time and among geographical regions. Finally, there is a need for the development and validation of diagnostic tests for wildlife species and for data on free-ranging population densities. Training of health professionals in wildlife diseases should also be improved. Overall, the article particularly emphasizes five needs of wildlife health investigations: communication and collaboration; use of synergies and triangulation approaches; investments for the long term; systematic collection of metadata; and harmonization of definitions and methods.