Statistical inference for the optimal approximating model

In the setting of high-dimensional linear models with Gaussian noise, we investigate the possibility of confidence statements connected to model selection. Although there exist numerous procedures for adaptive (point) estimation, the construction of adaptive confidence regions is severely limited (cf. Li in Ann Stat 17:1001–1008, 1989). The present paper sheds new light on this gap. We develop exact and adaptive confidence regions for the best approximating model in terms of risk. One of our constructions is based on a multiscale procedure and a particular coupling argument. Utilizing exponential inequalities for noncentral χ2-distributions, we show that the risk and quadratic loss of all models within our confidence region are uniformly bounded by the minimal risk times a factor close to one.

Use of a Th1 Stimulator Adjuvant for Vaccination against Neospora caninum Infection in the Pregnant Mouse Model

Vertical transmission from an infected cow to its fetus accounts for the vast majority of new Neospora caninum infections in cattle. A vaccine composed of a chimeric antigen named recNcMIC3-1-R, based on predicted immunogenic domains of the two microneme proteins NcMIC1 and NcMIC3, the rhoptry protein NcROP2, and emulsified in saponin adjuvants, significantly reduced the cerebral infection in non-pregnant BALB/c mice. Protection was associated with a mixed Th1/Th2-type cytokine response. However, the same vaccine formulation elicited a Th2-type immune response in pregnant mice and did not prevent vertical transmission or disease, neither in dams nor in offspring mice. In this study, an alternative vaccine formulation containing recNcMIC3-1-R emulsified in Freund’s incomplete adjuvant, a stimulator of the cellular immunity, was investigated. No protection against vertical transmission and cerebral infection in the pregnant mice and a very limited protective effect in the non-pregnant mice were observed. The vaccine induced a Th1-type immune response characterized by high IgG2a titres and strong IFN-γ expression, which appeared detrimental to pregnancy.

The coupled atmosphere–chemistry–ocean model SOCOL-MPIOM

The newly developed atmosphere–ocean-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-MPIOM is presented by demonstrating the influence of the interactive chemistry module on the climate state and the variability. Therefore, we compare pre-industrial control simulations with (CHEM) and without (NOCHEM) interactive chemistry. In general, the influence of the chemistry on the mean state and the variability is small and mainly restricted to the stratosphere and mesosphere. The largest differences are found for the atmospheric dynamics in the polar regions, with slightly stronger northern and southern winter polar vortices in CHEM. The strengthening of the vortex is related to larger stratospheric temperature gradients, which are attributed to a parametrization of the absorption of ozone and oxygen in the Lyman-alpha, Schumann–Runge, Hartley, and Higgins bands. This effect is parametrized in the version with interactive chemistry only. A second reason for the temperature differences between CHEM and NOCHEM is related to diurnal variations in the ozone concentrations in the higher atmosphere, which are missing in NOCHEM. Furthermore, stratospheric water vapour concentrations differ substantially between the two experiments, but their effect on the temperatures is small. In both setups, the simulated intensity and variability of the northern polar vortex is inside the range of present day observations. Sudden stratospheric warming events are well reproduced in terms of their frequency, but the distribution amongst the winter months is too uniform. Additionally, the performance of SOCOL-MPIOM under changing external forcings is assessed for the period 1600–2000 using an ensemble of simulations driven by a spectral solar forcing reconstruction. The amplitude of the reconstruction is large in comparison to other state-of-the-art reconstructions, providing an upper limit for the importance of the solar signal. In the pre-industrial period (1600–1850) the simulated surface temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with temperature reconstructions, although the multi-decadal variability is more pronounced. This enhanced variability can be attributed to the variability in the solar forcing. The simulated temperature reductions during the Maunder Minimum are in the lowest probability range of the proxy records. During the Dalton Minimum, when also volcanic forcing is an important driver of temperature variations, the agreement is better. In the industrial period from 1850 onward SOCOL-MPIOM overestimates the temperature increase in comparison to observational data sets. Sensitivity simulations show that this overestimation can be attributed to the increasing trend in the solar forcing reconstruction that is used in this study and an additional warming induced by the simulated ozone changes.

The career resources model: An integrative framework for career counsellors

Changes in the nature of work and organizations have led to an increased need for self-directed career management (SDCM). However, there is no consensus in the literature of what constitutes SDCM and many related concepts have been proposed. Integrating previous research across different conceptualizations of SDCM, the paper proposes four critical career resources which are essential for career development in the modern context: human capital resources, social resources, psychological resources, and identity resources. Implications of this framework for counselling practice are presented.

Examining Gender Differences in Received, Provided and Invisible Social Control: An Application of the Dual-Effects-Model

The dual-effects model of social control not only assumes that social control leads to better health practices but also arouses psychological distress. However, findings are inconsistent. The present study advances the current literature by examining social control from a dyadic perspective in the context of smoking. In addition, the study examines whether control, continuous smoking abstinence, and affect are differentially related for men and women. Before and three weeks after a self-set quit attempt, we examined 106 smokers (77 men, mean age: 40.67, average number of cigarettes smoked per day: 16.59 [SD=8.52, range=1-40] at baseline and 5.27 [SD=6.97, range=0-40] at follow-up) and their nonsmoking heterosexual partners, assessing received and provided control, continuous abstinence, and affect. With regard to smoker's affective reactions, partner's provided control was related to an increase in positive and to a decrease in negative affect, but only for female smokers. Moreover, the greater the discrepancy between smoker received and partner's provided control was the more positive affect increased and the more negative affect decreased, but again only for female smokers. These findings demonstrate that female smokers' well-being was raised over time if they were not aware of the control attempts of their nonsmoking partners, indicating positive effects of invisible social control. This study's results emphasize the importance of applying a dyadic perspective and taking gender differences in the dual-effects model of social control into account.

Explaining car drivers' intention to prevent road-traffic noise: An application of the Norm Activation Model

Strengthening car drivers’ intention to prevent road-traffic noise is a first step toward noise abatement through voluntary change of behavior. We analyzed predictors of this intention based on the norm activation model (i.e., personal norm, problem awareness, awareness of consequences, social norm, and value orientations). Moreover, we studied the effects of noise exposure, noise sensitivity, and noise annoyance on problem awareness. Data came from 1,002 car drivers who participated in a two-wave longitudinal survey over 4 months. Personal norm had a large prospective effect on intention, even when the previous level of intention was controlled for, and mediated the effect of all other variables on intention. Almost 60% of variance in personal norm was explained by problem awareness, social norm, and biospheric value orientation. The effects of noise sensitivity and noise exposure on problem awareness were small and mediated by noise annoyance. We propose four communication strategies for strengthening the intention to prevent road-traffic noise in car drivers.

Molecular Consequences of the SERPINH1/HSP47 Mutation in the Dachshund Natural Model of Osteogenesis Imperfecta.

Osteogenesis imperfecta (OI) is a heritable connective tissue disease characterized by bone fragility and increased risk of fractures. Up to now, mutations in at least 18 genes have been associated with dominant and recessive forms of OI that affect the production or post-translational processing of procollagen or alter bone homeostasis. Among those, SERPINH1 encoding heat shock protein 47 (HSP47), a chaperone exclusive for collagen folding in the ER, was identified to cause a severe form of OI in dachshunds (L326P) as well as in humans (one single case with a L78P mutation). To elucidate the disease mechanism underlying OI in the dog model, we applied a range of biochemical assays to mutant and control skin fibroblasts as well as on bone samples. These experiments revealed that type I collagen synthesized by mutant cells had decreased electrophoretic mobility. Procollagen was retained intracellularly with concomitant dilation of ER cisternae and activation of the ER stress response markers GRP78 and phospho-eIF2α, thus suggesting a defect in procollagen processing. In line with the migration shift detected on SDS-PAGE of cell culture collagen, extracts of bone collagen from the OI dog showed a similar mobility shift, and on tandem mass spectrometry, the chains were post-translationally overmodified. The bone collagen had a higher content of pyridinoline than control dog bone. We conclude that the SERPINH1 mutation in this naturally occurring model of OI impairs how HSP47 acts as a chaperone in the ER. This results in abnormal post-translational modification and cross-linking of the bone collagen.

Supersymmetric quantum mechanics on the lattice: II. Exact results

Simulations of supersymmetric field theories with spontaneously broken supersymmetry require in addition to the ultraviolet regularisation also an infrared one, due to the emergence of the massless Goldstino. The intricate interplay between ultraviolet and infrared effects towards the continuum and infinite volume limit demands careful investigations to avoid potential problems. In this paper – the second in a series of three – we present such an investigation for N=2 supersymmetric quantum mechanics formulated on the lattice in terms of bosonic and fermionic bonds. In one dimension, the bond formulation allows to solve the system exactly, even at finite lattice spacing, through the construction and analysis of transfer matrices. In the present paper we elaborate on this approach and discuss a range of exact results for observables such as the Witten index, the mass spectra and Ward identities.

Supersymmetric quantum mechanics on the lattice: III. Simulations and algorithms

In the fermion loop formulation the contributions to the partition function naturally separate into topological equivalence classes with a definite sign. This separation forms the basis for an efficient fermion simulation algorithm using a fluctuating open fermion string. It guarantees sufficient tunnelling between the topological sectors, and hence provides a solution to the fermion sign problem affecting systems with broken supersymmetry. Moreover, the algorithm shows no critical slowing down even in the massless limit and can hence handle the massless Goldstino mode emerging in the supersymmetry broken phase. In this paper – the third in a series of three – we present the details of the simulation algorithm and demonstrate its efficiency by means of a few examples.

Compactified N = 1 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory on the lattice: continuity and the disappearance of the deconfinement transition

Fermion boundary conditions play a relevant role in revealing the confinement mechanism of N=1 supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory with one compactified space-time dimension. A deconfinement phase transition occurs for a sufficiently small compactification radius, equivalent to a high temperature in the thermal theory where antiperiodic fermion boundary conditions are applied. Periodic fermion boundary conditions, on the other hand, are related to the Witten index and confinement is expected to persist independently of the length of the compactified dimension. We study this aspect with lattice Monte Carlo simulations for different values of the fermion mass parameter that breaks supersymmetry softly. We find a deconfined region that shrinks when the fermion mass is lowered. Deconfinement takes place between two confined regions at large and small compactification radii, that would correspond to low and high temperatures in the thermal theory. At the smallest fermion masses we find no indication of a deconfinement transition. These results are a first signal for the predicted continuity in the compactification of supersymmetric Yang-Mills theory.

The behaviour of incompatible elements during hydrous melting of metasomatized peridotite at 4–6 GPa and 1000 °C–1200 °C

Trace element behavior during hydrous melting of a metasomatized garnet–peridotite was examined at pressures of 4–6 GPa and temperatures of 1000 °C–1200 °C, conditions appropriate for fluid penetrating the mantle wedge atop the subducting slab. Experiments were performed in a rocking multi-anvil apparatus using a diamond-trap setup. The compositions of the fluid and melt phases were measured using the cryogenic LA-ICP-MS technique. The water-saturated solidus of the K-lherzolite composition is located between 900 °C and 1000 °C at 4 GPa and between 1000 °C and 1100 °C at 5 and 6 GPa. The partition coefficients between fluid or melt and clinopyroxene reveal an asymmetric MREE trough with a minimum at Dy. The clinopyroxene in equilibrium with aqueous fluids is characterized by DUfluid–cpx > DThfluid–cpx while DUmelt–cpx tends to be similar to DThmelt–cpx. The partition coefficients between fluid or melt and garnet reveal very strong light to heavy REE fractionation, DLa/DLu from 95 (hydrous melt) to 1600 (aqueous fluid). The LILE are highly incompatible with partition coefficients > 50. The behavior of HFSE are decoupled, with DZr,Hf close to 1 while DNb,Ta > 10. Garnet is characterized by DUmelt/fluid–garnet < DThmelt/fluid–garnet. A comparison of our experimental partitioning results for trivalent cations as well as the results from the literature and the calculations carried out using the lattice strain model adapted to the presence of water in the bulk system indicates that H2O in the fluid or melt phase has a prominent effect on trace element partitioning. Garnet in mantle rocks in equilibrium with an aqueous fluid is characterized by significantly higher Do(3 +) for REE in the X site of the garnet compared with the partitioning values of the optimal cation in garnet in equilibrium with hydrous melts. Our data show for the first time that the change in the nature of the mobile phase (fluid vs. melt) does affect the affinities of trace elements into the garnet crystal at conditions below the second critical endpoint of the system. The same also applies for clinopyroxene, although this is less clear. Consequently, our new data allow for refinements in predictive modeling of element transfer from the slab to the mantle wedge and of possible compositions of metasomatized mantle that sources OIB magmatism.

Privacy-preserving genomic testing in the clinic: a model using HIV treatment

PURPOSE The implementation of genomic-based medicine is hindered by unresolved questions regarding data privacy and delivery of interpreted results to health-care practitioners. We used DNA-based prediction of HIV-related outcomes as a model to explore critical issues in clinical genomics. METHODS We genotyped 4,149 markers in HIV-positive individuals. Variants allowed for prediction of 17 traits relevant to HIV medical care, inference of patient ancestry, and imputation of human leukocyte antigen (HLA) types. Genetic data were processed under a privacy-preserving framework using homomorphic encryption, and clinical reports describing potentially actionable results were delivered to health-care providers. RESULTS A total of 230 patients were included in the study. We demonstrated the feasibility of encrypting a large number of genetic markers, inferring patient ancestry, computing monogenic and polygenic trait risks, and reporting results under privacy-preserving conditions. The average execution time of a multimarker test on encrypted data was 865 ms on a standard computer. The proportion of tests returning potentially actionable genetic results ranged from 0 to 54%. CONCLUSIONS The model of implementation presented herein informs on strategies to deliver genomic test results for clinical care. Data encryption to ensure privacy helps to build patient trust, a key requirement on the road to genomic-based medicine.Genet Med advance online publication 14 January 2016Genetics in Medicine (2016); doi:10.1038/gim.2015.167.