Real-time adaptive models for the personalized prediction of glycemic profile in type 1 diabetes patients

Prediction of glycemic profile is an important task for both early recognition of hypoglycemia and enhancement of the control algorithms for optimization of insulin infusion rate. Adaptive models for glucose prediction and recognition of hypoglycemia based on statistical and artificial intelligence techniques are presented.

Pathology hinting as the combination of automatic segmentation with a statistical shape model

With improvements in acquisition speed and quality, the amount of medical image data to be screened by clinicians is starting to become challenging in the daily clinical practice. To quickly visualize and find abnormalities in medical images, we propose a new method combining segmentation algorithms with statistical shape models. A statistical shape model built from a healthy population will have a close fit in healthy regions. The model will however not fit to morphological abnormalities often present in the areas of pathologies. Using the residual fitting error of the statistical shape model, pathologies can be visualized very quickly. This idea is applied to finding drusen in the retinal pigment epithelium (RPE) of optical coherence tomography (OCT) volumes. A segmentation technique able to accurately segment drusen in patients with age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is applied. The segmentation is then analyzed with a statistical shape model to visualize potentially pathological areas. An extensive evaluation is performed to validate the segmentation algorithm, as well as the quality and sensitivity of the hinting system. Most of the drusen with a height of 85.5 microm were detected, and all drusen at least 93.6 microm high were detected.

Pancreatic carcinoma, pancreatitis, and healthy controls: metabolite models in a three-class diagnostic dilemma

Metabolomics as one of the most rapidly growing technologies in the "-omics" field denotes the comprehensive analysis of low molecular-weight compounds and their pathways. Cancer-specific alterations of the metabolome can be detected by high-throughput mass-spectrometric metabolite profiling and serve as a considerable source of new markers for the early differentiation of malignant diseases as well as their distinction from benign states. However, a comprehensive framework for the statistical evaluation of marker panels in a multi-class setting has not yet been established. We collected serum samples of 40 pancreatic carcinoma patients, 40 controls, and 23 pancreatitis patients according to standard protocols and generated amino acid profiles by routine mass-spectrometry. In an intrinsic three-class bioinformatic approach we compared these profiles, evaluated their selectivity and computed multi-marker panels combined with the conventional tumor marker CA 19-9. Additionally, we tested for non-inferiority and superiority to determine the diagnostic surplus value of our multi-metabolite marker panels. Compared to CA 19-9 alone, the combined amino acid-based metabolite panel had a superior selectivity for the discrimination of healthy controls, pancreatitis, and pancreatic carcinoma patients [Formula: see text] We combined highly standardized samples, a three-class study design, a high-throughput mass-spectrometric technique, and a comprehensive bioinformatic framework to identify metabolite panels selective for all three groups in a single approach. Our results suggest that metabolomic profiling necessitates appropriate evaluation strategies and-despite all its current limitations-can deliver marker panels with high selectivity even in multi-class settings.

Statistical shape analysis via principal factor analysis

Statistical shape analysis techniques commonly employed in the medical imaging community, such as active shape models or active appearance models, rely on principal component analysis (PCA) to decompose shape variability into a reduced set of interpretable components. In this paper we propose principal factor analysis (PFA) as an alternative and complementary tool to PCA providing a decomposition into modes of variation that can be more easily interpretable, while still being a linear efficient technique that performs dimensionality reduction (as opposed to independent component analysis, ICA). The key difference between PFA and PCA is that PFA models covariance between variables, rather than the total variance in the data. The added value of PFA is illustrated on 2D landmark data of corpora callosa outlines. Then, a study of the 3D shape variability of the human left femur is performed. Finally, we report results on vector-valued 3D deformation fields resulting from non-rigid registration of ventricles in MRI of the brain.

Correspondence establishment in statistical modeling of shapes with arbitrary topology

Correspondence establishment is a key step in statistical shape model building. There are several automated methods for solving this problem in 3D, but they usually can only handle objects with simple topology, like that of a sphere or a disc. We propose an extension to correspondence establishment over a population based on the optimization of the minimal description length function, allowing considering objects with arbitrary topology. Instead of using a fixed structure of kernel placement on a sphere for the systematic manipulation of point landmark positions, we rely on an adaptive, hierarchical organization of surface patches. This hierarchy can be built on surfaces of arbitrary topology and the resulting patches are used as a basis for a consistent, multi-scale modification of the surfaces' parameterization, based on point distribution models. The feasibility of the approach is demonstrated on synthetic models with different topologies.

Models with Plants, Microorganisms and Viruses for Basic Research in Homeopathy

Most criticism about homeopathy concerns the lack of a scientific basis and theoretical models. In order to be accepted as a valid part of medical practice, a wellstructured research strategy for homeopathy is needed. This is often hampered by methodological problems as well as by gross underinvestment in the required academic resources. Fundamental research could make important contributions to our understanding of the homeopathic and high dilutions mechanisms of action. Since the pioneering works of Kolisko on wheat germination (Kolisko, 1923) and Junker on growth of microorganisms (paramecium, yeast, fungi) (Junker, 1928), a number of experiments have been performed either with healthy organisms (various physiological aspects of growth) or with artificially diseased organisms, which may react more markedly to homeopathic treatments than healthy ones. In the latter case, the preliminary stress may be either abiotic, e.g. heavy metals, or biotic, e.g. fungal and viral pathogens or nematode infection. Research has also been carried out into the applicability of homeopathic principles to crop growth and disease control (agrohomeopathy): because of the extreme dilutions used, the environmental impact is low and such treatments are well suited to the holistic approach of sustainable agriculture (Betti et al., 2006). Unfortunately, as Scofield reported in an extensive critical review (Scofield, 1984), there is little firm evidence to support the reliability of the reported results, due to poor experimental methodology and inadequate statistical analysis. Moreover, since there is no agricultural homeopathic pharmacopoeia, much work is required to find suitable remedies, potencies and dose levels.

Statistical inference for the optimal approximating model

In the setting of high-dimensional linear models with Gaussian noise, we investigate the possibility of confidence statements connected to model selection. Although there exist numerous procedures for adaptive (point) estimation, the construction of adaptive confidence regions is severely limited (cf. Li in Ann Stat 17:1001–1008, 1989). The present paper sheds new light on this gap. We develop exact and adaptive confidence regions for the best approximating model in terms of risk. One of our constructions is based on a multiscale procedure and a particular coupling argument. Utilizing exponential inequalities for noncentral χ2-distributions, we show that the risk and quadratic loss of all models within our confidence region are uniformly bounded by the minimal risk times a factor close to one.

Is the Atlantic subpolar gyre bistable in comprehensive coupled climate models?

The Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) is one of the main drivers of decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic. Here we analyze its dynamics in pre-industrial control simulations of 19 different comprehensive coupled climate models. The analysis is based on a recently proposed description of the SPG dynamics that found the circulation to be potentially bistable due to a positive feedback mechanism including salt transport and enhanced deep convection in the SPG center. We employ a statistical method to identify multiple equilibria in time series that are subject to strong noise and analyze composite fields to assess whether the bistability results from the hypothesized feedback mechanism. Because noise dominates the time series in most models, multiple circulation modes can unambiguously be detected in only six models. Four of these six models confirm that the intensification is caused by the positive feedback mechanism.

Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography

Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial–interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia – fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys – in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas-fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine-scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.

Matrix models for quantifying competitive intransitivity from species abundance data

In a network of competing species, a competitive intransitivity occurs when the ranking of competitive abilities does not follow a linear hierarchy (A > B > C but C > A). A variety of mathematical models suggests that intransitive networks can prevent or slow down competitive exclusion and maintain biodiversity by enhancing species coexistence. However, it has been difficult to assess empirically the relative importance of intransitive competition because a large number of pairwise species competition experiments are needed to construct a competition matrix that is used to parameterize existing models. Here we introduce a statistical framework for evaluating the contribution of intransitivity to community structure using species abundance matrices that are commonly generated from replicated sampling of species assemblages. We provide metrics and analytical methods for using abundance matrices to estimate species competition and patch transition matrices by using reverse-engineering and a colonization-competition model. These matrices provide complementary metrics to estimate the degree of intransitivity in the competition network of the sampled communities. Benchmark tests reveal that the proposed methods could successfully detect intransitive competition networks, even in the absence of direct measures of pairwise competitive strength. To illustrate the approach, we analyzed patterns of abundance and biomass of five species of necrophagous Diptera and eight species of their hymenopteran parasitoids that co-occur in beech forests in Germany. We found evidence for a strong competitive hierarchy within communities of flies and parasitoids. However, for parasitoids, there was a tendency towards increasing intransitivity in higher weight classes, which represented larger resource patches. These tests provide novel methods for empirically estimating the degree of intransitivity in competitive networks from observational datasets. They can be applied to experimental measures of pairwise species interactions, as well as to spatio-temporal samples of assemblages in homogenous environments or environmental gradients.

Automatic Segmentation of the Eye in 3D Magnetic Resonance Imaging: A novel Statistical Shape Model for treatment planning of Retinoblastoma

Purpose: Proper delineation of ocular anatomy in 3D imaging is a big challenge, particularly when developing treatment plans for ocular diseases. Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) is nowadays utilized in clinical practice for the diagnosis confirmation and treatment planning of retinoblastoma in infants, where it serves as a source of information, complementary to the Fundus or Ultrasound imaging. Here we present a framework to fully automatically segment the eye anatomy in the MRI based on 3D Active Shape Models (ASM), we validate the results and present a proof of concept to automatically segment pathological eyes. Material and Methods: Manual and automatic segmentation were performed on 24 images of healthy children eyes (3.29±2.15 years). Imaging was performed using a 3T MRI scanner. The ASM comprises the lens, the vitreous humor, the sclera and the cornea. The model was fitted by first automatically detecting the position of the eye center, the lens and the optic nerve, then aligning the model and fitting it to the patient. We validated our segmentation method using a leave-one-out cross validation. The segmentation results were evaluated by measuring the overlap using the Dice Similarity Coefficient (DSC) and the mean distance error. Results: We obtained a DSC of 94.90±2.12% for the sclera and the cornea, 94.72±1.89% for the vitreous humor and 85.16±4.91% for the lens. The mean distance error was 0.26±0.09mm. The entire process took 14s on average per eye. Conclusion: We provide a reliable and accurate tool that enables clinicians to automatically segment the sclera, the cornea, the vitreous humor and the lens using MRI. We additionally present a proof of concept for fully automatically segmenting pathological eyes. This tool reduces the time needed for eye shape delineation and thus can help clinicians when planning eye treatment and confirming the extent of the tumor.

gems: An R Package for Simulating from Disease Progression Models

Mathematical models of disease progression predict disease outcomes and are useful epidemiological tools for planners and evaluators of health interventions. The R package gems is a tool that simulates disease progression in patients and predicts the effect of different interventions on patient outcome. Disease progression is represented by a series of events (e.g., diagnosis, treatment and death), displayed in a directed acyclic graph. The vertices correspond to disease states and the directed edges represent events. The package gems allows simulations based on a generalized multistate model that can be described by a directed acyclic graph with continuous transition-specific hazard functions. The user can specify an arbitrary hazard function and its parameters. The model includes parameter uncertainty, does not need to be a Markov model, and may take the history of previous events into account. Applications are not limited to the medical field and extend to other areas where multistate simulation is of interest. We provide a technical explanation of the multistate models used by gems, explain the functions of gems and their arguments, and show a sample application.

Automatic estimation of noise parameters in Fourier-domain optical coherence tomography cross sectional images using statistical information

We present an application and sample independent method for the automatic discrimination of noise and signal in optical coherence tomography Bscans. The proposed algorithm models the observed noise probabilistically and allows for a dynamic determination of image noise parameters and the choice of appropriate image rendering parameters. This overcomes the observer variability and the need for a priori information about the content of sample images, both of which are challenging to estimate systematically with current systems. As such, our approach has the advantage of automatically determining crucial parameters for evaluating rendered image quality in a systematic and task independent way. We tested our algorithm on data from four different biological and nonbiological samples (index finger, lemon slices, sticky tape, and detector cards) acquired with three different experimental spectral domain optical coherence tomography (OCT) measurement systems including a swept source OCT. The results are compared to parameters determined manually by four experienced OCT users. Overall, our algorithm works reliably regardless of which system and sample are used and estimates noise parameters in all cases within the confidence interval of those found by observers.

Reconstruction of 3D Vertebral Models from a Single 2D Lateral Fluoroscopic Image

Accurate three-dimensional (3D) models of lumbar vertebrae are required for image-based 3D kinematics analysis. MRI or CT datasets are frequently used to derive 3D models but have the disadvantages that they are expensive, time-consuming or involving ionizing radiation (e.g., CT acquisition). In this chapter, we present an alternative technique that can reconstruct a scaled 3D lumbar vertebral model from a single two-dimensional (2D) lateral fluoroscopic image and a statistical shape model. Cadaveric studies are conducted to verify the reconstruction accuracy by comparing the surface models reconstructed from a single lateral fluoroscopic image to the ground truth data from 3D CT segmentation. A mean reconstruction error between 0.7 and 1.4 mm was found.

Articulated Statistical Shape Model-Based 2D-3D Reconstruction of a Hip Joint

In this paper, reconstruction of three-dimensional (3D) patient-specific models of a hip joint from two-dimensional (2D) calibrated X-ray images is addressed. Existing 2D-3D reconstruction techniques usually reconstruct a patient-specific model of a single anatomical structure without considering the relationship to its neighboring structures. Thus, when those techniques would be applied to reconstruction of patient-specific models of a hip joint, the reconstructed models may penetrate each other due to narrowness of the hip joint space and hence do not represent a true hip joint of the patient. To address this problem we propose a novel 2D-3D reconstruction framework using an articulated statistical shape model (aSSM). Different from previous work on constructing an aSSM, where the joint posture is modeled as articulation in a training set via statistical analysis, here it is modeled as a parametrized rotation of the femur around the joint center. The exact rotation of the hip joint as well as the patient-specific models of the joint structures, i.e., the proximal femur and the pelvis, are then estimated by optimally fitting the aSSM to a limited number of calibrated X-ray images. Taking models segmented from CT data as the ground truth, we conducted validation experiments on both plastic and cadaveric bones. Qualitatively, the experimental results demonstrated that the proposed 2D-3D reconstruction framework preserved the hip joint structure and no model penetration was found. Quantitatively, average reconstruction errors of 1.9 mm and 1.1 mm were found for the pelvis and the proximal femur, respectively.