What Actually Matters? Understanding Attitudes toward Immigration in Switzerland

On 9 February 2014, the Swiss people accepted the popular initiative “against mass immigration” launched by the national-conservative Swiss People’s Party (SVP). This voting outcome has triggered wide-ranging debates about both the policy on immigrants as well as the future of Switzerland within the European context. Against this background, we evaluate attitudes toward immigration in Switzerland. Using hitherto unexplored survey data of MOSAiCH, our empirical analyses show that already in the year 2013, before the debate about the initiative on mass immigration was in full swing, roughly 53 percent of the 1011 interviewed Swiss citizens stated that immigration should be reduced. Moreover, our estimations indicate that the threats and fears induced by immigration and the will to maintain sovereignty and autonomy are particularly relevant for attitudes toward immigration. By contrast, education and national or personal economic conditions are only weakly related to the immigration issue.

Random Sampling with Interspike-Intervals of the Exponential Integrate and Fire Neuron: A Computational Interpretation of UP-States

Oscillations between high and low values of the membrane potential (UP and DOWN states respectively) are an ubiquitous feature of cortical neurons during slow wave sleep and anesthesia. Nevertheless, a surprisingly small number of quantitative studies have been conducted only that deal with this phenomenon’s implications for computation. Here we present a novel theory that explains on a detailed mathematical level the computational benefits of UP states. The theory is based on random sampling by means of interspike intervals (ISIs) of the exponential integrate and fire (EIF) model neuron, such that each spike is considered a sample, whose analog value corresponds to the spike’s preceding ISI. As we show, the EIF’s exponential sodium current, that kicks in when balancing a noisy membrane potential around values close to the firing threshold, leads to a particularly simple, approximative relationship between the neuron’s ISI distribution and input current. Approximation quality depends on the frequency spectrum of the current and is improved upon increasing the voltage baseline towards threshold. Thus, the conceptually simpler leaky integrate and fire neuron that is missing such an additional current boost performs consistently worse than the EIF and does not improve when voltage baseline is increased. For the EIF in contrast, the presented mechanism is particularly effective in the high-conductance regime, which is a hallmark feature of UP-states. Our theoretical results are confirmed by accompanying simulations, which were conducted for input currents of varying spectral composition. Moreover, we provide analytical estimations of the range of ISI distributions the EIF neuron can sample from at a given approximation level. Such samples may be considered by any algorithmic procedure that is based on random sampling, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo or message-passing methods. Finally, we explain how spike-based random sampling relates to existing computational theories about UP states during slow wave sleep and present possible extensions of the model in the context of spike-frequency adaptation.

Body weight estimation based on postmortem CT data-validation of a multiplication factor

Postmortem computed tomography (pmCT) is increasingly applied in forensic medicine as a documentation and diagnostic tool. The present study investigated if pmCT data can be used to estimate the corpse weight. In 50 forensic cases, pmCT examinations were performed prior to autopsy and the pmCT data were used to determine the body volume using an automated segmentation tool. PmCT was performed within 48 h postmortem. The body weights assessed prior to autopsy and the body volumes assessed using the pmCT data were used to calculate individual multiplication factors. The mean postmortem multiplication factor for the study cases was 1.07 g/ml. Using this factor, the body weight may be estimated retrospectively when necessary. Severe artifact causing foreign bodies within the corpses limit the use of pmCT data for body weight estimations.

Ignoring heterozygous sites biases phylogenomic estimates of divergence times: implications for the evolutionary history of Microtus voles

Phylogenetic reconstruction of the evolutionary history of closely related organisms may be difficult because of the presence of unsorted lineages and of a relatively high proportion of heterozygous sites that are usually not handled well by phylogenetic programs. Genomic data may provide enough fixed polymorphisms to resolve phylogenetic trees, but the diploid nature of sequence data remains analytically challenging. Here, we performed a phylogenomic reconstruction of the evolutionary history of the common vole (Microtus arvalis) with a focus on the influence of heterozygosity on the estimation of intraspecific divergence times. We used genome-wide sequence information from 15 voles distributed across the European range. We provide a novel approach to integrate heterozygous information in existing phylogenetic programs by repeated random haplotype sampling from sequences with multiple unphased heterozygous sites. We evaluated the impact of the use of full, partial, or no heterozygous information for tree reconstructions on divergence time estimates. All results consistently showed four deep and strongly supported evolutionary lineages in the vole data. These lineages undergoing divergence processes split only at the end or after the last glacial maximum based on calibration with radiocarbon-dated paleontological material. However, the incorporation of information from heterozygous sites had a significant impact on absolute and relative branch length estimations. Ignoring heterozygous information led to an overestimation of divergence times between the evolutionary lineages of M. arvalis. We conclude that the exclusion of heterozygous sites from evolutionary analyses may cause biased and misleading divergence time estimates in closely related taxa.

Body Height Estimation from Femur Measurements in Postmortem Computed Tomography

After attending this presentation, attendees will: (1) understand how body height from computed tomography data can be estimated; and, (2) gain knowledge about the accuracy of estimated body height and limitations. The presentation will impact the forensic science community by providing knowledge and competence which will enable attendees to develop formulas for single bones to reconstruct body height using postmortem Computer Tomography (p-CT) data. The estimation of Body Height (BH) is an important component of the identification of corpses and skeletal remains. Stature can be estimated with relative accuracy via the measurement of long bones, such as the femora. Compared to time-consuming maceration procedures, p-CT allows fast and simple measurements of bones. This study undertook four objectives concerning the accuracy of BH estimation via p-CT: (1) accuracy between measurements on native bone and p-CT imaged bone (F1 according to Martin 1914); (2) intra-observer p-CT measurement precision; (3) accuracy between formula-based estimation of the BH and conventional body length measurement during autopsy; and, (4) accuracy of different estimation formulas available.1 In the first step, the accuracy of measurements in the CT compared to those obtained using an osteometric board was evaluated on the basis of eight defleshed femora. Then the femora of 83 female and 144 male corpses of a Swiss population for which p-CTs had been performed, were measured at the Institute of Forensic Medicine in Bern. After two months, 20 individuals were measured again in order to assess the intraobserver error. The mean age of the men was 53±17 years and that of the women was 61±20 years. Additionally, the body length of the corpses was measured conventionally. The mean body length was 176.6±7.2cm for men and 163.6±7.8cm for women. The images that were obtained using a six-slice CT were reconstructed with a slice thickness of 1.25mm. Analysis and measurements of CT images were performed on a multipurpose workstation. As a forensic standard procedure, stature was estimated by means of the regression equations by Penning & Riepert developed on a Southern German population and for comparison, also those referenced by Trotter & Gleser “American White.”2,3 All statistical tests were performed with a statistical software. No significant differences were found between the CT and osteometric board measurements. The double p-CT measurement of 20 individuals resulted in an absolute intra-observer difference of 0.4±0.3mm. For both sexes, the correlation between the body length and the estimated BH using the F1 measurements was highly significant. The correlation coefficient was slightly higher for women. The differences in accuracy of the different formulas were small. While the errors of BH estimation were generally ±4.5–5.0cm, the consideration of age led to an increase in accuracy of a few millimetres to about 1cm. BH estimations according to Penning & Riepert and Trotter & Gleser were slightly more accurate when age-at-death was taken into account.2,3 That way, stature estimations in the group of individuals older than 60 years were improved by about 2.4cm and 3.1cm.2,3 The error of estimation is therefore about a third of the common ±4.7cm error range. Femur measurements in p-CT allow very accurate BH estimations. Estimations according to Penning led to good results that (barely) come closer to the true value than the frequently used formulas by Trotter & Gleser “American White.”2,3 Therefore, the formulas by Penning & Riepert are also validated for this substantial recent Swiss population.

Post mortem computed tomography and core needle biopsy in comparison to autopsy in eleven bernese mountain Dogs with histiocytic sarcoma

Background: Bernese mountain dogs are reported to have a shorter life expectancy than other breeds. A Major reason for this has been assigned to a high tumour prevalence, especially of histiocytic sarcoma. The efforts made by the breeding clubs to improve the longevity with the help of genetic tests and breeding value estimations are impeded by insufficiently reliable diagnoses regarding the cause of death. The current standard for post mortem examination in animals is performance of an autopsy. In human forensic medicine, imaging modalities, such as computed tomography and magnetic resonance imaging, are used with increasing frequency as a complement to autopsy. The present study investigates, whether post mortem computed tomography in combination with core needle biopsy is able to provide a definitive diagnosis of histiocytic sarcoma. For this purpose we have analysed the results of post mortem computed tomography and core needle biopsy in eleven Bernese mountain dogs. In the subsequent autopsy, every dog had a definitive diagnosis of histiocytic sarcoma, based on immunohistochemistry. Results: Computed tomography revealed space-occupying lesions in all dogs. Lesion detection by post mortem computed tomography was similar to lesion detection in autopsy for lung tissue (9 cases in computed tomography / 8 cases in autopsy), thoracic lymph nodes (9/8), spleen (6/7), kidney (2/2) and bone (3/3). Hepatic nodules, however, were difficult to detect with our scanning protocol (2/7). Histology of the core needle biopsies provided definitive diagnoses of histiocytic sarcoma in ten dogs, including confirmation by immunohistochemistry in six dogs. The biopsy samples of the remaining dog did not contain any identifiable neoplastic cells. Autolysis was the main reason for uncertain histological diagnoses. Conclusions: Post mortem computed tomography is a fast and effective method for the detection of lesions suspicious for histiocytic sarcoma in pulmonary, thoracic lymphatic, splenic, osseous and renal tissue. Optimization of the procedure regarding the scanning protocol and tissue sample size and number will improve the accuracy of the method. Keywords: Post mortem computed tomography, Core needle biopsy, Bernese mountain dog, Histiocytic sarcoma, Autopsy

Estimating Intra-Party Preferences: Comparing Speeches to Votes

Well-established methods exist for measuring party positions, but reliable means for estimating intra-party preferences remain underdeveloped. While most efforts focus on estimating the ideal points of individual legislators based on inductive scaling of roll call votes, this data suffers from two problems: selection bias due to unrecorded votes and strong party discipline, which tends to make voting a strategic rather than a sincere indication of preferences. By contrast, legislative speeches are relatively unconstrained, as party leaders are less likely to punish MPs for speaking freely as long as they vote with the party line. Yet, the differences between roll call estimations and text scalings remain essentially unexplored, despite the growing application of statistical analysis of textual data to measure policy preferences. Our paper addresses this lacuna by exploiting a rich feature of the Swiss legislature: on most bills, legislators both vote and speak many times. Using this data, we compare text-based scaling of ideal points to vote-based scaling from a crucial piece of energy legislation. Our findings confirm that text scalings reveal larger intra-party differences than roll calls. Using regression models, we further explain the differences between roll call and text scalings by attributing differences to constituency-level preferences for energy policy.

Lake ice phenology from AVHRR data for European lakes: An automated two-step extraction method

Several lake ice phenology studies from satellite data have been undertaken. However, the availability of long-term lake freeze-thaw-cycles, required to understand this proxy for climate variability and change, is scarce for European lakes. Long time series from space observations are limited to few satellite sensors. Data of the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) are used in account of their unique potential as they offer each day global coverage from the early 1980s expectedly until 2022. An automatic two-step extraction was developed, which makes use of near-infrared reflectance values and thermal infrared derived lake surface water temperatures to extract lake ice phenology dates. In contrast to other studies utilizing thermal infrared, the thresholds are derived from the data itself, making it unnecessary to define arbitrary or lake specific thresholds. Two lakes in the Baltic region and a steppe lake on the Austrian–Hungarian border were selected. The later one was used to test the applicability of the approach to another climatic region for the time period 1990 to 2012. A comparison of the extracted event dates with in situ data provided good agreements of about 10 d mean absolute error. The two-step extraction was found to be applicable for European lakes in different climate regions and could fill existing data gaps in future applications. The extension of the time series to the full AVHRR record length (early 1980 until today) with adequate length for trend estimations would be of interest to assess climate variability and change. Furthermore, the two-step extraction itself is not sensor-specific and could be applied to other sensors with equivalent near- and thermal infrared spectral bands.

Balanced bilinguals favor lexical processing in their opaque language and conversion system in their shallow language

Referred to as orthographic depth, the degree of consistency of grapheme/phoneme correspondences varies across languages from high in shallow orthographies to low in deep orthographies. The present study investigates the impact of orthographic depth on reading route by analyzing evoked potentials to words in a deep (French) and shallow (German) language presented to highly proficient bilinguals. ERP analyses to German and French words revealed significant topographic modulations 240-280ms post-stimulus onset, indicative of distinct brain networks engaged in reading over this time window. Source estimations revealed that these effects stemmed from modulations of left insular, inferior frontal and dorsolateral regions (German>French) previously associated to phonological processing. Our results show that reading in a shallow language was associated to a stronger engagement of phonological pathways than reading in a deep language. Thus, the lexical pathways favored in word reading are reinforced by phonological networks more strongly in the shallow than deep orthography.

Contextualizing local-scale point sample data using global-scale spatial datasets: Lessons learnt from the analysis of large-scale land acquisitions

This paper examines how the geospatial accuracy of samples and sample size influence conclusions from geospatial analyses. It does so using the example of a study investigating the global phenomenon of large-scale land acquisitions and the socio-ecological characteristics of the areas they target. First, we analysed land deal datasets of varying geospatial accuracy and varying sizes and compared the results in terms of land cover, population density, and two indicators for agricultural potential: yield gap and availability of uncultivated land that is suitable for rainfed agriculture. We found that an increase in geospatial accuracy led to a substantial and greater change in conclusions about the land cover types targeted than an increase in sample size, suggesting that using a sample of higher geospatial accuracy does more to improve results than using a larger sample. The same finding emerged for population density, yield gap, and the availability of uncultivated land suitable for rainfed agriculture. Furthermore, the statistical median proved to be more consistent than the mean when comparing the descriptive statistics for datasets of different geospatial accuracy. Second, we analysed effects of geospatial accuracy on estimations regarding the potential for advancing agricultural development in target contexts. Our results show that the target contexts of the majority of land deals in our sample whose geolocation is known with a high level of accuracy contain smaller amounts of suitable, but uncultivated land than regional- and national-scale averages suggest. Consequently, the more target contexts vary within a country, the more detailed the spatial scale of analysis has to be in order to draw meaningful conclusions about the phenomena under investigation. We therefore advise against using national-scale statistics to approximate or characterize phenomena that have a local-scale impact, particularly if key indicators vary widely within a country.

Treatment planning aspects and Monte Carlo methods in proton therapy

Over the last years, the interest in proton radiotherapy is rapidly increasing. Protons provide superior physical properties compared with conventional radiotherapy using photons. These properties result in depth dose curves with a large dose peak at the end of the proton track and the finite proton range allows sparing the distally located healthy tissue. These properties offer an increased flexibility in proton radiotherapy, but also increase the demand in accurate dose estimations. To carry out accurate dose calculations, first an accurate and detailed characterization of the physical proton beam exiting the treatment head is necessary for both currently available delivery techniques: scattered and scanned proton beams. Since Monte Carlo (MC) methods follow the particle track simulating the interactions from first principles, this technique is perfectly suited to accurately model the treatment head. Nevertheless, careful validation of these MC models is necessary. While for the dose estimation pencil beam algorithms provide the advantage of fast computations, they are limited in accuracy. In contrast, MC dose calculation algorithms overcome these limitations and due to recent improvements in efficiency, these algorithms are expected to improve the accuracy of the calculated dose distributions and to be introduced in clinical routine in the near future.

Body height estimation from post-mortem CT femoral F1 measurements in a contemporary Swiss population.

PURPOSE The present study aimed at the comparison of body height estimations from cadaver length with body height estimations according to Trotter and Gleser (1952) and Penning and Riepert (2003) on the basis of femoral F1 section measurements in post-mortem computed tomography (PMCT) images. METHODS In a post-mortem study in a contemporary Swiss population (226 corpses: 143 males (mean age: 53±17years) and 83 females (mean age: 61±20years)) femoral F1 measurements (403 femora: 199 right and 204 left; 177 pairs) were conducted in PMCT images and F1 was used for body height estimation using the equations after Trotter and Gleser (1952, "American Whites"), and Penning and Riepert (2003). RESULTS The mean observed cadaver length was 176.6cm in males and 163.6cm in females. Mean measured femoral length F1 was 47.5cm (males) and 44.1cm (females) respectively. Comparison of body height estimated from PMCT F1 measurements with body height calculated from cadaver length showed a close congruence (mean difference less than 0.95cm in males and less than 1.99cm in females) for equations both applied after Penning and Riepert and Trotter and Gleser. CONCLUSIONS Femoral F1 measurements in PMCT images are very accurate, reproducible and feasible for body height estimation of a contemporary Swiss population when using the equations after Penning and Riepert (2003) or Trotter and Gleser (1952).

Older patients with low Charlson score and high-risk prostate cancer benefit from radical prostatectomy

INTRODUCTION The aim of the study was to identify the appropriate level of Charlson comorbidity index (CCI) in older patients (>70 years) with high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) to achieve survival benefit following radical prostatectomy (RP). METHODS We retrospectively analyzed 1008 older patients (>70 years) who underwent RP with pelvic lymph node dissection for high-risk prostate cancer (preoperative prostate-specific antigen >20 ng/mL or clinical stage ≥T2c or Gleason ≥8) from 14 tertiary institutions between 1988 and 2014. The study population was further grouped into CCI < 2 and ≥2 for analysis. Survival rate for each group was estimated with Kaplan-Meier method and competitive risk Fine-Gray regression to estimate the best explanatory multivariable model. Area under the curve (AUC) and Akaike information criterion were used to identify ideal 'Cut off' for CCI. RESULTS The clinical and cancer characteristics were similar between the two groups. Comparison of the survival analysis using the Kaplan-Meier curve between two groups for non-cancer death and survival estimations for 5 and 10 years shows significant worst outcomes for patients with CCI ≥ 2. In multivariate model to decide the appropriate CCI cut-off point, we found CCI 2 has better AUC and p value in log rank test. CONCLUSION Older patients with fewer comorbidities harboring high-risk PCa appears to benefit from RP. Sicker patients are more likely to die due to non-prostate cancer-related causes and are less likely to benefit from RP.

Permittivity measurements of porous matter in support of investigations of the surface and interior of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

Aims. Permittivity measurements on porous samples of volcanic origin have been performed in the 0.05-190 GHz range under laboratory conditions in support of the Rosetta mission to comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko, specifically with the MIRO radiometric experiment and CONSERT radar experiment. Methods. The samples were split into several subsamples with different size ranges covering a few mu m to 500 mu m. Bulk densities of the subsamples were estimated to be in the 800 to 1500 kg/m(3) range. The porosities were in the range of 48% to 65%. From 50 MHz to 6 GHz and at 190 GHz, permittivity has been determined with a coaxial cell and with a quasi-optical bench, respectively. Results. Without taking into account the volume-scattering effect at 190 GHz, the real part of the permittivity, normalized by the bulk density, is in the range of 2.1 to 2.6. The results suggest that the real part of the permittivity of an ice-free dust mantle covering the nucleus is in the 1.5-2.2 range at 190 GHz. From these values, a lower limit for the absorption length for the millimeter receiver of MIRO has been estimated to be between 0.6 and 2 cm, in agreement with results obtained from MIRO in September 2014. At frequencies of interest for CONSERT experiment, the real part of the permittivity of a suspected ice-free dust mantle should be below 2.2. It may be in the range of 1.2 to 1.7 for the nucleus, in agreement with first CONSERT results, taking into account a mean temperature of 110 K and different values for the dust-to-ice volumetric ratio. Estimations of contributions of the different parameters to the permittivity variation may indicate that the porosity is the main parameter.