CD4 count slope and mortality in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy: multicohort analysis from South Africa

BACKGROUND In many resource-limited settings monitoring of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is based on the current CD4 count, with limited access to HIV RNA tests or laboratory diagnostics. We examined whether the CD4 count slope over 6 months could provide additional prognostic information. METHODS We analyzed data from a large multicohort study in South Africa, where HIV RNA is routinely monitored. Adult HIV-positive patients initiating cART between 2003 and 2010 were included. Mortality was analyzed in Cox models; CD4 count slope by HIV RNA level was assessed using linear mixed models. RESULTS About 44,829 patients (median age: 35 years, 58% female, median CD4 count at cART initiation: 116 cells/mm) were followed up for a median of 1.9 years, with 3706 deaths. Mean CD4 count slopes per week ranged from 1.4 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2 to 1.6] cells per cubic millimeter when HIV RNA was <400 copies per milliliter to -0.32 (95% CI: -0.47 to -0.18) cells per cubic millimeter with >100,000 copies per milliliter. The association of CD4 slope with mortality depended on current CD4 count: the adjusted hazard ratio (aHRs) comparing a >25% increase over 6 months with a >25% decrease was 0.68 (95% CI: 0.58 to 0.79) at <100 cells per cubic millimeter but 1.11 (95% CI: 0.78 to 1.58) at 201-350 cells per cubic millimeter. In contrast, the aHR for current CD4 count, comparing >350 with <100 cells per cubic millimeter, was 0.10 (95% CI: 0.05 to 0.20). CONCLUSIONS Absolute CD4 count remains a strong risk for mortality with a stable effect size over the first 4 years of cART. However, CD4 count slope and HIV RNA provide independently added to the model.

Monitoring of antiretroviral therapy and mortality in HIV programmes in Malawi, South Africa and Zambia: mathematical modelling study

OBJECTIVES Mortality in patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) is higher in Malawi and Zambia than in South Africa. We examined whether different monitoring of ART (viral load [VL] in South Africa and CD4 count in Malawi and Zambia) could explain this mortality difference. DESIGN Mathematical modelling study based on data from ART programmes. METHODS We used a stochastic simulation model to study the effect of VL monitoring on mortality over 5 years. In baseline scenario A all parameters were identical between strategies except for more timely and complete detection of treatment failure with VL monitoring. Additional scenarios introduced delays in switching to second-line ART (scenario B) or higher virologic failure rates (due to worse adherence) when monitoring was based on CD4 counts only (scenario C). Results are presented as relative risks (RR) with 95% prediction intervals and percent of observed mortality difference explained. RESULTS RRs comparing VL with CD4 cell count monitoring were 0.94 (0.74-1.03) in scenario A, 0.94 (0.77-1.02) with delayed switching (scenario B) and 0.80 (0.44-1.07) when assuming a 3-times higher rate of failure (scenario C). The observed mortality at 3 years was 10.9% in Malawi and Zambia and 8.6% in South Africa (absolute difference 2.3%). The percentage of the mortality difference explained by VL monitoring ranged from 4% (scenario A) to 32% (scenarios B and C combined, assuming a 3-times higher failure rate). Eleven percent was explained by non-HIV related mortality. CONCLUSIONS VL monitoring reduces mortality moderately when assuming improved adherence and decreased failure rates.

Immune recovery after starting ART in HIV-infected patients presenting and not presenting with tuberculosis in South Africa

We studied the immune response after starting antiretroviral treatment (ART) in 15,646 HIV-infected patients with or without tuberculosis (TB) at presentation in 3 ART programs in South Africa between 2003 and 2010. Patients presenting with TB had similar increases in CD4 cells compared with all other patients (adjusted difference 4.9 cells/µL per 6 months, 95% confidence interval: 0.2 to 9.7). Younger age, advanced clinical stage, female sex, and lower CD4 cell count at ART start were all associated with steeper CD4 slopes. In South Africa, HIV-infected patients presenting with TB experience immune recovery after starting ART that is no worse than in other patients.

OSL and TL dating of the Middle Stone Age sequence at Diepkloof Rock Shelter (South Africa): a clarification

Diepkloof Rock Shelter offers an exceptional opportunity to study the onset and evolution of both Still Bay (SB) and Howiesons Poort (HP) techno-complexes. However, previous age estimates based on luminescence dating of burnt quartzites (Tribolo et al., 2009) and of sediments (Jacobs et al., 2008) were not in agreement. Here, we present new luminescence ages for 17 rock samples (equivalent dose estimated with a SAR-ITL protocol instead of classical MAAD-TL) as well as for 5 sediment samples (equivalent dose estimated with SAR-single grain OSL protocol) and an update of the 22 previous age estimates for burnt lithics (modified calibration and beta dose estimates). While a good agreement between the rock and sediment ages is obtained, these estimates are still significantly older than those reported by Jacobs et al. (2008). After our own analyses of the sediment from Diepkloof, it is suspected that these authors did not correctly chose the parameters for the equivalent dose determination, leading to an underestimate of the equivalent doses, and thus of the ages. From bottom to top, the mean ages are 100 ± 10 ka for stratigraphic unit (SU) Noël and 107 ± 11 ka for SU Mark (uncharacterized Lower MSA), 100 ± 10 ka for SU Lynn-Leo (Pre-SB type Lynn), 109 ± 10 ka for SUs Kim-Larry (SB), 105 ± 10 ka for SUs Kerry-Kate and 109 ± 10 ka for SU Jess (Early HP), 89 ± 8 ka for SU Jude (MSA type Jack), 77 ± 8 ka for SU John, 85 ± 9 ka for SU Fox, 83 ± 8 ka for SU Fred and 65 ± 8 ka for SU OB5 (Intermediate HP), 52 ± 5 ka for SUs OB2-4 (Late HP). This chronology, together with the technological analyses, greatly modifies the current chrono-cultural model regarding the SB and the HP and has important archaeological implications. Indeed, SB and HP no longer appear as short-lived techno-complexes with synchronous appearances for each and restricted to Oxygen Isotopic Stage (OIS) 4 across South Africa, as suggested by Jacobs et al. (2008, 2012). Rather, the sequence of Diepkloof supports a long chronology model with an early appearance of both SB and HP in the first half of OIS 5 and a long duration of the HP into OIS 3. These new dates imply that different technological traditions coexisted during OIS 5 and 4 in southern Africa and that SB and HP can no longer be considered as horizon markers.

The changing values of children and preferences regarding family size in south Africa

This study extends the ongoing studies on values of children and intergenerational relations into an African context with the following key questions: To what extent can the structure of values of children (VOC) identified in previous studies be found in South Africa and what are women's preferences regarding the size of small, large, and ideal families? The sample consisted of three cohorts of Black South African women from the Limpopo Province. Factor analyses showed that the dimensions of VOC found in South Africa are a conglomeration of different values. Identified dimensions were Social/Emotional and Traditional/Utilitarian with respect to reasons for wanting children. Regarding reasons for not wanting children, Child as Source of Constraints and Constraints to Have a Child were identified. Intergenerational comparisons showed variations in the importance of value of children dimensions and in preferences regarding family size. Values of children of younger mothers were related to the number of children these women had and to their preferences regarding family size. The findings are discussed within the changing socio-political context of South Africa.

Kaposi's Sarcoma in HIV-infected patients in South Africa: Multicohort study in the antiretroviral therapy era

The incidence of Kaposi's Sarcoma (KS) is high in South Africa but the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) is not well defined. We examined incidence and survival of KS in HIV-infected patients enrolled in South African ART programs. We analyzed data of three ART programs: Khayelitsha township and Tygerberg Hospital programs in Cape Town and Themba Lethu program in Johannesburg. We included patients aged >16 years. ART was defined as a regimen of at least three drugs. We estimated incidence rates of KS for patients on ART and not on ART. We calculated Cox models adjusted for age, sex and time-updated CD4 cell counts and HIV-1 RNA. A total of 18,254 patients (median age 34.5 years, 64% female, median CD4 cell count at enrolment 105 cells/μL) were included. During 37,488 person-years follow-up 162 patients developed KS. The incidence was 1,682/100,000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 1,406-2,011) among patients not receiving ART and 138/100,000 person-years (95% CI 102-187) among patients on ART. The adjusted hazard ratio comparing time on ART with time not on ART was 0.19 (95% CI 0.13-0.28). Low CD4 cell counts (time-updated) and male sex were also associated with KS. Estimated survival of KS patients at one year was 72.2% (95% CI 64.9-80.2) and higher in men than in women. The incidence of KS is substantially lower on ART than not on ART. Timely initiation of ART is essential to prevent KS and KS-associated morbidity and mortality in South Africa and other regions in Africa with a high burden of HIV.

Mortality in patients with HIV-1 infection starting antiretroviral therapy in South Africa, Europe, or North America: a collaborative analysis of prospective studies.

BACKGROUND High early mortality in patients with HIV-1 starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa, compared to Europe and North America, is well documented. Longer-term comparisons between settings have been limited by poor ascertainment of mortality in high burden African settings. This study aimed to compare mortality up to four years on ART between South Africa, Europe, and North America. METHODS AND FINDINGS Data from four South African cohorts in which patients lost to follow-up (LTF) could be linked to the national population register to determine vital status were combined with data from Europe and North America. Cumulative mortality, crude and adjusted (for characteristics at ART initiation) mortality rate ratios (relative to South Africa), and predicted mortality rates were described by region at 0-3, 3-6, 6-12, 12-24, and 24-48 months on ART for the period 2001-2010. Of the adults included (30,467 [South Africa], 29,727 [Europe], and 7,160 [North America]), 20,306 (67%), 9,961 (34%), and 824 (12%) were women. Patients began treatment with markedly more advanced disease in South Africa (median CD4 count 102, 213, and 172 cells/µl in South Africa, Europe, and North America, respectively). High early mortality after starting ART in South Africa occurred mainly in patients starting ART with CD4 count <50 cells/µl. Cumulative mortality at 4 years was 16.6%, 4.7%, and 15.3% in South Africa, Europe, and North America, respectively. Mortality was initially much lower in Europe and North America than South Africa, but the differences were reduced or reversed (North America) at longer durations on ART (adjusted rate ratios 0.46, 95% CI 0.37-0.58, and 1.62, 95% CI 1.27-2.05 between 24 and 48 months on ART comparing Europe and North America to South Africa). While bias due to under-ascertainment of mortality was minimised through death registry linkage, residual bias could still be present due to differing approaches to and frequency of linkage. CONCLUSIONS After accounting for under-ascertainment of mortality, with increasing duration on ART, the mortality rate on HIV treatment in South Africa declines to levels comparable to or below those described in participating North American cohorts, while substantially narrowing the differential with the European cohorts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.

HIV testing and burden of HIV infection in black cancer patients in Johannesburg, South Africa: a cross-sectional study.

BACKGROUND HIV infection is a known risk factor for cancer but little is known about HIV testing patterns and the burden of HIV infection in cancer patients. We did a cross-sectional analysis to identify predictors of prior HIV testing and to quantify the burden of HIV in black cancer patients in Johannesburg, South Africa. METHODS The Johannesburg Cancer Case-control Study (JCCCS) recruits newly-diagnosed black cancer patients attending public referral hospitals for oncology and radiation therapy in Johannesburg . All adult cancer patients enrolled into the JCCCS from November 2004 to December 2009 and interviewed on previous HIV testing were included in the analysis. Patients were independently tested for HIV-1 using a single ELISA test . The prevalence of prior HIV testing, of HIV infection and of undiagnosed HIV infection was calculated. Multivariate logistic regression models were fitted to identify factors associated with prior HIV testing. RESULTS A total of 5436 cancer patients were tested for HIV of whom 1833[33.7% (95% CI=32.5-35.0)] were HIV-positive. Three-quarters of patients (4092 patients) had ever been tested for HIV. The total prevalence of undiagnosed HIV infection was 11.5% (10.7-12.4) with 34% (32.0-36.3) of the 1833 patients who tested HIV-positive unaware of their infection. Men >49 years [OR 0.49(0.39-0.63)] and those residing in rural areas [OR 0.61(0.39-0.97)] were less likely to have been previously tested for HIV. Men with at least a secondary education [OR 1.79(1.11-2.90)] and those interviewed in recent years [OR 4.13(2.62 - 6.52)] were likely to have prior testing. Women >49 years [OR 0.33(0.27-0.41)] were less likely to have been previously tested for HIV. In women, having children <5 years [OR 2.59(2.04-3.29)], hormonal contraceptive use [OR 1.33(1.09-1.62)], having at least a secondary education [OR:2.08(1.45-2.97)] and recent year of interview [OR 6.04(4.45-8.2)] were independently associated with previous HIV testing. CONCLUSIONS In a study of newly diagnosed black cancer patients in Johannesburg, over a third of HIV-positive patients were unaware of their HIV status. In South Africa black cancer patients should be targeted for opt-out HIV testing.