Cement volume is the most important modifiable predictor for pain relief in BKP: results from SWISSspine, a nationwide registry

Purpose The effectiveness of vertebral augmentation techniques is a currently highly debated issue. The biomechanical literature suggests that cement filling volumes may play an important role in the ‘‘dosage’’ of vertebral augmentation and its pain alleviating effect. Good clinical data about filling volumes are scarce and most patient series are small. Therefore, we investigated the predictors of pain alleviation after balloon kyphoplasty in the nationwide SWISSspine registry where cement volumes are also recorded. Methods All single-level vertebral fractures with no additional fracture stabilization and availability of at least one follow-up within 6 months after surgery were included. The following potential predictors were assessed in a multivariate logistic regression model with the group’s average pain alleviation of 41 points on VAS as the desired outcome: patient age, patient sex, diagnosis, preoperative pain, level of fracture, type of fracture, age of fracture, segmental kyphotic deformity, cement volume, vertebral body filling volume, and cement extrusions. Results There were 194 female and 82 males with an average age of 70.4 and 65.3 years, respectively. Female patients were about twice as likely for achieving the average pain relief compared to males (p = 0.04). The preoperative pain level was the strongest predictor in that the likelihood for achieving an at least 41-point pain relief increased by about 8 % with each additional point of preoperative pain (p\0.001). A thoraco-lumbar fracture had a three times higher odds for the average pain relief compared with a lumbar fracture (p = 0.03). An A.3.1 fracture only had about a third of the probability for average pain relief compared with an A.1.1 fracture (p = 0.004). Cement volumes up to 4.5 ml only had an approximately 40 % chance for a minimum 41-point pain alleviation as compared with cement volumes of at least 4.5 ml (p = 0.007). In addition, the relationship between cement volume and pain alleviation followed a dose-dependent pattern. Conclusions Cement volume was revealed as a significant predictor for pain relief in BKP. Cement volume was the third most important influential covariate and the most important modifiable and operator dependent one. The clear dose-outcome relationship between cement filling volumes and pain relief additionally supports these findings. Cement volumes of [4.5 ml seem to be recommendable for achieving relevant pain alleviation. Patient sex and fracture type and location were further significant predictors and all these covariates should be recorded and reported in future studies about the pain alleviating effectiveness of vertebral augmentation procedures.

Motivation as a predictor of drinking outcomes after residential treatment programs for alcohol dependence

OBJECTIVES: Patients' motivation to change their substance use is usually viewed as a crucial component of successful treatment. The objective of this study was to examine whether motivation contributes to drinking outcomes after residential treatment for alcohol dependence. METHODS: Our sample included 415 Swiss patients from 12 residential alcohol treatment programs. We statistically controlled for important predictors, such as sex, employment, alcohol consumption before admission, severity of alcohol dependence, severity of psychiatric symptoms at admission, and alcohol-related self-efficacy at discharge. Abstinence, alcohol consumption, and time to first drink were used as primary outcome measures and were assessed 1 year after discharge from treatment. RESULTS: Action-oriented motivation to change substance use had a modest impact on drinking outcomes. At the 1-year follow-up, only the Taking Steps subscale of the Stages of Change Readiness and Treatment Eagerness Scale and alcohol-related self-efficacy were found to be significant predictors of abstinence and the number of standard drinks. CONCLUSIONS: The impact of action-oriented motivation at admission to residential treatment is modest but still relevant, compared with other outcome predictors. It may be useful to focus treatment on improving action-oriented motivation to reduce substance use

Invisible social control as predictor of daily negative affect and smoking after a self-set quit date

The dual-effects model of social control proposes that social control leads to increased psychological distress but also to better health practices. However, findings are inconsistent, and recent research suggests that the most effective control is unnoticed by the receiver (i. e., invisible). Yet, investigations of the influence of invisible control on daily negative affect and smoking have been limited. Using daily diaries, we investigated how invisible social control was associated with negative affect and smoking. Overall, 100 smokers (72.0 % men, age M = 40.48, SD = 9.82) and their nonsmoking partners completed electronic diaries from a self-set quit date for 22 consecutive days, reporting received and provided social control, negative affect, and daily smoking. We found in multilevel analyses of the within-person process that on days with higher-than-average invisible control, smokers reported more negative affect and fewer cigarettes smoked. Findings are in line with the assumptions of the dual-effects model of social control: Invisible social control increased daily negative affect and simultaneously reduced smoking at the within-person level.

The ADO index as a predictor of two-year mortality in general practice-based chronic obstructive pulmonary disease cohorts.

BACKGROUND Existing prediction models for mortality in chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients have not yet been validated in primary care, which is where the majority of patients receive care. OBJECTIVES Our aim was to validate the ADO (age, dyspnoea, airflow obstruction) index as a predictor of 2-year mortality in 2 general practice-based COPD cohorts. METHODS Six hundred and forty-six patients with COPD with GOLD (Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease) stages I-IV were enrolled by their general practitioners and followed for 2 years. The ADO regression equation was used to predict a 2-year risk of all-cause mortality in each patient and this risk was compared with the observed 2-year mortality. Discrimination and calibration were assessed as well as the strength of association between the 15-point ADO score and the observed 2-year all-cause mortality. RESULTS Fifty-two (8.1%) patients died during the 2-year follow-up period. Discrimination with the ADO index was excellent with an area under the curve of 0.78 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.71-0.84]. Overall, the predicted and observed risks matched well and visual inspection revealed no important differences between them across 10 risk classes (p = 0.68). The odds ratio for death per point increase according to the ADO index was 1.50 (95% CI 1.31-1.71). CONCLUSIONS The ADO index showed excellent prediction properties in an out-of-population validation carried out in COPD patients from primary care settings.

Examining invisible social control as predictor of daily smoking and negative affect after a self-set quit date

Objectives: The dual-effects model of social control proposes that social control leads to better health practices, but also arouses psychological distress. However, findings are inconsistent in relation to health behavior and psychological distress. Recent research suggests that the most effective control is unnoticed by the receiver (i.e., invisible). There is some evidence that invisible social control is beneficial for positive and negative affective reactions. Yet, investigations of the influence of invisible social control on daily smoking and distress have been limited. In daily diaries, we investigated how invisible social control is associated with number of cigarettes smoked and negative affect on a daily basis. Methods: Overall, 99 smokers (72.0% men, mean age M = 40.48, SD = 9.82) and their non-smoking partners completed electronic diaries from a self-set quit date for 22 consecutive days within the hour before going to bed, reporting received and provided social control, daily number of cigarettes smoked, and negative affect. Results: Multilevel analyses indicated that between-person levels of invisible social control were associated with lower negative affect, whereas they were unrelated to number of cigarettes smoked. On days with higher-than-average invisible social control, smokers reported less cigarettes smoked and more negative affect. Conclusions: Between-person level findings indicate that invisible social control can be beneficial for negative affect. However, findings on the within-person level are in line with the assumptions of the dual-effects model of social control: Invisible social control reduced daily smoking and simultaneously increased daily negative affect within person.

Velocity of early BCR-ABL transcript elimination as an optimized predictor of outcome in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) patients in chronic phase on treatment with imatinib

UNLABELLED Early assessment of response at 3 months of tyrosine kinase inhibitor treatment has become an important tool to predict favorable outcome. We sought to investigate the impact of relative changes of BCR-ABL transcript levels within the initial 3 months of therapy. In order to achieve accurate data for high BCR-ABL levels at diagnosis, beta glucuronidase (GUS) was used as a reference gene. Within the German CML-Study IV, samples of 408 imatinib-treated patients were available in a single laboratory for both times, diagnosis and 3 months on treatment. In total, 301 of these were treatment-naïve at sample collection. RESULTS (i) with regard to absolute transcript levels at diagnosis, no predictive cutoff could be identified; (ii) at 3 months, an individual reduction of BCR-ABL transcripts to the 0.35-fold of baseline level (0.46-log reduction, that is, roughly half-log) separated best (high risk: 16% of patients, 5-year overall survival (OS) 83% vs 98%, hazard ratio (HR) 6.3, P=0.001); (iii) at 3 months, a 6% BCR-ABL(IS) cutoff derived from BCR-ABL/GUS yielded a good and sensitive discrimination (high risk: 22% of patients, 5-year OS 85% vs 98%, HR 6.1, P=0.002). Patients at risk of disease progression can be identified precisely by the lack of a half-log reduction of BCR-ABL transcripts at 3 months.

Retrocrural space involvement on computed tomography as a predictor of mortality and disease severity in acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND Because computed tomography (CT) has advantages for visualizing the manifestation of necrosis and local complications, a series of scoring systems based on CT manifestations have been developed for assessing the clinical outcomes of acute pancreatitis (AP), including the CT severity index (CTSI), modified CTSI, etc. Despite the internationally accepted CTSI having been successfully used to predict the overall mortality and disease severity of AP, recent literature has revealed the limitations of the CTSI. Using the Delphi method, we establish a new scoring system based on retrocrural space involvement (RCSI), and compared its effectiveness at evaluating the mortality and severity of AP with that of the CTSI. METHODS We reviewed CT images of 257 patients with AP taken within 3-5 days of admission in 2012. The RCSI scoring system, which includes assessment of infectious conditions involving the retrocrural space and the adjacent pleural cavity, was established using the Delphi method. Two radiologists independently assessed the RCSI and CTSI scores. The predictive points of the RCSI and CTSI scoring systems in evaluating the mortality and severity of AP were estimated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS The RCSI score can accurately predict the mortality and disease severity. The area under the ROC curve for the RCSI versus CTSI score was 0.962±0.011 versus 0.900±0.021 for predicting the mortality, and 0.888±0.025 versus 0.904±0.020 for predicting the severity of AP. Applying ROC analysis to our data showed that a RCSI score of 4 was the best cutoff value, above which mortality could be identified. CONCLUSION The Delphi method was innovatively adopted to establish a scoring system to predict the clinical outcome of AP. The RCSI scoring system can predict the mortality of AP better than the CTSI system, and the severity of AP equally as well.

Long-Term Effects of the Treatment of Depressive Female Inpatients in a Naturalistic Study: Is Early Improvement a Valid Predictor of Outcome?

Objectives: To examine the predictive value of early improvement for short- and long-term outcome in the treatment of depressive female inpatients and to explore the influence of comorbid disorders (CD). Methods: Archival data of a naturalistic sample of 277 female inpatients diagnosed with a depressive disorder was analyzed assessing the BDI at baseline, after 20 days and 30 days, posttreatment, and after 3 to 6 months at follow-up. Early improvement, defined as a decrease in the BDI score of at least 30% after 20 and after 30 days, and CD were analyzed using binary logistic regression. Results: Both early improvement definitions were predictive of remission at posttreatment. Early improvement after 30 days showed a sustained treatment effect in the follow-up phase, whereas early improvement after 20 days failed to show a persistent effect regarding remission at follow-up. CD were not significantly related neither at posttreatment nor at follow-up. At no time point CD moderated the prediction by early improvement. Conclusions: We show that early improvement is a valid predictor for short-term remission and at follow-up in an inpatient setting. CD did not predict outcome. Further studies are needed to identify patient subgroups amenable to more tailored treatments.

Laparoscopic management of bowel endometriosis: resection margins as a predictor of recurrence.

OBJECTIVE To evaluate possible predictive factors for recurrence after laparoscopic segmental bowel resection for bowel endometriosis. DESIGN Cohort study. SETTING Academic tertiary referral center. METHODS 95 symptomatic women with bowel endometriosis who underwent laparoscopic segmental bowel resection at the Endometriosis clinic, University of Berne, between 2002 and 2012 were enrolled. Since 14 women were lost to follow-up, 81 formed the final cohort. Clinical and histological characteristics were examined as possible predictive factors for disease recurrence. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Recurrence, defined as a subsequent operation due to recurrent endometriosis-associated pain with a histologically confirmed endometriotic lesion. RESULTS Recurrence was observed in 13 (16%) patients. Variables that were significantly associated to recurrence by the Cox regression analysis were positive bowel resection margins (hazard ratio 6.5, 95% confidence interval 1.8-23.5, p = 0.005), age <31 years (hazard ratio 5.6, 95% confidence interval 1.7-18.6, p = 0.005) and body mass index ≥23 kg/m(2) (hazard ratio 11.0, 95% confidence interval 2.7-44.6, p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Positive bowel resection margins as well as age <31 years and body mass index ≥23 kg/m(2) appear to be independent predictors of disease recurrence.

Early Improvement As a Predictor of Later Response to Antipsychotics in Schizophrenia: A Diagnostic Test Review

OBJECTIVE How long clinicians should wait before considering an antipsychotic ineffective and changing treatment in schizophrenia is an unresolved clinical question. Guidelines differ substantially in this regard. The authors conducted a diagnostic test meta-analysis using mostly individual patient data to assess whether lack of improvement at week 2 predicts later nonresponse. METHOD The search included EMBASE, MEDLINE, BIOSIS, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, and reference lists of relevant articles, supplemented by requests to authors of all relevant studies. The main outcome was prediction of nonresponse, defined as <50% reduction in total score on either the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale (PANSS) or Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS) (corresponding to at least much improved) from baseline to endpoint (4-12 weeks), by <20% PANSS or BPRS improvement (corresponding to less than minimally improved) at week 2. Secondary outcomes were absent cross-sectional symptomatic remission and <20% PANSS or BPRS reduction at endpoint. Potential moderator variables were examined by meta-regression. RESULTS In 34 studies (N=9,460) a <20% PANSS or BPRS reduction at week 2 predicted nonresponse at endpoint with a specificity of 86% and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 90%. Using data for observed cases (specificity=86%, PPV=85%) or lack of remission (specificity=77%, PPV=88%) yielded similar results. Conversely, using the definition of <20% reduction at endpoint yielded worse results (specificity=70%, PPV=55%). The test specificity was significantly moderated by a trial duration of <6 weeks, higher baseline illness severity, and shorter illness duration. CONCLUSIONS Patients not even minimally improved by week 2 of antipsychotic treatment are unlikely to respond later and may benefit from a treatment change.

Self-reported nonadherence to antiretroviral therapy as a predictor of viral failure and mortality.

OBJECTIVE To determine the effect of nonadherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) on virologic failure and mortality in naive individuals starting ART. DESIGN Prospective observational cohort study. METHODS Eligible individuals enrolled in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, started ART between 2003 and 2012, and provided adherence data on at least one biannual clinical visit. Adherence was defined as missed doses (none, one, two, or more than two) and percentage adherence (>95, 90-95, and <90) in the previous 4 weeks. Inverse probability weighting of marginal structural models was used to estimate the effect of nonadherence on viral failure (HIV-1 viral load >500 copies/ml) and mortality. RESULTS Of 3150 individuals followed for a median 4.7 years, 480 (15.2%) experienced viral failure and 104 (3.3%) died, 1155 (36.6%) reported missing one dose, 414 (13.1%) two doses and, 333 (10.6%) more than two doses of ART. The risk of viral failure increased with each missed dose (one dose: hazard ratio [HR] 1.15, 95% confidence interval 0.79-1.67; two doses: 2.15, 1.31-3.53; more than two doses: 5.21, 2.96-9.18). The risk of death increased with more than two missed doses (HR 4.87, 2.21-10.73). Missing one to two doses of ART increased the risk of viral failure in those starting once-daily (HR 1.67, 1.11-2.50) compared with those starting twice-daily regimens (HR 0.99, 0.64-1.54, interaction P = 0.09). Consistent results were found for percentage adherence. CONCLUSION Self-report of two or more missed doses of ART is associated with an increased risk of both viral failure and death. A simple adherence question helps identify patients at risk for negative clinical outcomes and offers opportunities for intervention.