Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH4) emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten modelling groups joined WETCHIMP to run eight global and two regional models with a common experimental protocol using the same climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. We reported the main conclusions from the intercomparison effort in a companion paper (Melton et al., 2013). Here we provide technical details for the six experiments, which included an equilibrium, a transient, and an optimized run plus three sensitivity experiments (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). The diversity of approaches used by the models is summarized through a series of conceptual figures, and is used to evaluate the wide range of wetland extent and CH4 fluxes predicted by the models in the equilibrium run. We discuss relationships among the various approaches and patterns in consistencies of these model predictions. Within this group of models, there are three broad classes of methods used to estimate wetland extent: prescribed based on wetland distribution maps, prognostic relationships between hydrological states based on satellite observations, and explicit hydrological mass balances. A larger variety of approaches was used to estimate the net CH4 fluxes from wetland systems. Even though modelling of wetland extent and CH4 emissions has progressed significantly over recent decades, large uncertainties still exist when estimating CH4 emissions: there is little consensus on model structure or complexity due to knowledge gaps, different aims of the models, and the range of temporal and spatial resolutions of the models.

A review of dendrogeomorphological research applied to flood risk analysis in Spain

Over the last forty years, applying dendrogeomorphology to palaeoflood analysis has improved estimates of the frequency and magnitude of past floods worldwide. This paper reviews the main results obtained by applying dendrogeomorphology to flood research in several case studies in Central Spain. These dendrogeomorphological studies focused on the following topics: (1) anatomical analysis to understand the physiological response of trees to flood damage and improve sampling efficiency; (2) compiling robust flood chronologies in ungauged mountain streams, (3) determining flow depth and estimating flood discharge using two-dimensional hydraulic modelling, and comparing them with other palaeostage indicators; (4) calibrating hydraulic model parameters (i.e. Manning roughness); and (5) implementing stochastic-based, cost–benefit analysis to select optimal mitigation measures. The progress made in these areas is presented with suggestions for further research to improve the applicability of dendrogeochronology to palaeoflood studies. Further developments will include new methods for better identification of the causes of specific types of flood damage to trees (e.g. tilted trees) or stable isotope analysis of tree rings to identify the climatic conditions associated with periods of increasing flood magnitude or frequency.

The role of microclot formation in an acute subarachnoid hemorrhage model in the rabbit

BACKGROUND Microvascular dysfunction and microthrombi formation are believed to contribute to development of early brain injury (EBI) after aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). OBJECTIVE This study aimed to determine (i) extent of microthrombus formation and neuronal apoptosis in the brain parenchyma using a blood shunt SAH model in rabbits; (ii) correlation of structural changes in microvessels with EBI characteristics. METHODS Acute SAH was induced using a rabbit shunt cisterna magna model. Extent of microthrombosis was detected 24 h post-SAH (n = 8) by fibrinogen immunostaining, compared to controls (n = 4). We assessed apoptosis by terminal deoxynucleotidyl transferase nick end labeling (TUNEL) in cortex and hippocampus. RESULTS Our results showed significantly more TUNEL-positive cells (SAH: 115 ± 13; controls: 58 ± 10; P = 0.016) and fibrinogen-positive microthromboemboli (SAH: 9 ± 2; controls: 2 ± 1; P = 0.03) in the hippocampus after aneurysmal SAH. CONCLUSIONS We found clear evidence of early microclot formation in a rabbit model of acute SAH. The extent of microthrombosis did not correlate with early apoptosis or CPP depletion after SAH; however, the total number of TUNEL positive cells in the cortex and the hippocampus significantly correlated with mean CPP reduction during the phase of maximum depletion after SAH induction. Both microthrombosis and neuronal apoptosis may contribute to EBI and subsequent DCI.

A conceptual model of compensation/decompensation in lumbar segmental instability

Lumbar spinal instability (LSI) is a common spinal disorder and can be associated with substantial disability. The concept of defining clinically relevant classifications of disease or 'target condition' is used in diagnostic research. Applying this concept to LSI we hypothesize that a set of clinical and radiological criteria can be developed to identify patients with this target condition who are at high risk of 'irreversible' decompensated LSI for whom surgery becomes the treatment of choice. In LSI, structural deterioration of the lumbar disc initiates a degenerative cascade of segmental instability. Over time, radiographic signs become visible: traction spurs, facet joint degeneration, misalignment, stenosis, olisthesis and de novo scoliosis. Ligaments, joint capsules, local and distant musculature are the functional elements of the lumbar motion segment. Influenced by non-functional factors, these functional elements allow a compensation of degeneration of the motion segment. Compensation may happen on each step of the degenerative cascade but cannot reverse it. However, compensation of LSI may lead to an alleviation or resolution of clinical symptoms. In return, the target condition of decompensation of LSI may cause the new occurrence of symptoms and pain. Functional compensation and decompensation are subject to numerous factors that can change which makes estimation of an individual's long-term prognosis difficult. Compensation and decompensation may influence radiographic signs of degeneration, e.g. the degree of misalignment and segmental angulation caused by LSI is influenced by the tonus of the local musculature. This conceptual model of compensation/decompensation may help solve the debate on functional and psychosocial factors that influence low back pain and to establish a new definition of non-specific low back pain. Individual differences of identical structural disorders could be explained by compensated or decompensated LSI leading to changes in clinical symptoms and pain. Future spine surgery will have to carefully define and measure functional aspects of LSI, e.g. to identify a point of no return where multidisciplinary interventions do not allow a re-compensation and surgery becomes the treatment of choice.

Assessing the Potential of Multiple Imputation in Sequence Analysis

Sequence analysis and optimal matching are useful heuristic tools for the descriptive analysis of heterogeneous individual pathways such as educational careers, job sequences or patterns of family formation. However, to date it remains unclear how to handle the inevitable problems caused by missing values with regard to such analysis. Multiple Imputation (MI) offers a possible solution for this problem but it has not been tested in the context of sequence analysis. Against this background, we contribute to the literature by assessing the potential of MI in the context of sequence analyses using an empirical example. Methodologically, we draw upon the work of Brendan Halpin and extend it to additional types of missing value patterns. Our empirical case is a sequence analysis of panel data with substantial attrition that examines the typical patterns and the persistence of sex segregation in school-to-work transitions in Switzerland. The preliminary results indicate that MI is a valuable methodology for handling missing values due to panel mortality in the context of sequence analysis. MI is especially useful in facilitating a sound interpretation of the resulting sequence types.

Replications of fundamental research models in ultra high dilutions 1994 and 2015 - update on a bibliometric study

INTRODUCTION This paper focuses exclusively on experimental models with ultra high dilutions (i.e. beyond 10(-23)) that have been submitted to replication scrutiny. It updates previous surveys, considers suggestions made by the research community and compares the state of replication in 1994 with that in 2015. METHODS Following literature research, biochemical, immunological, botanical, cell biological and zoological studies on ultra high dilutions (potencies) were included. Reports were grouped into initial studies, laboratory-internal, multicentre and external replications. Repetition could yield either comparable, or zero, or opposite results. The null-hypothesis was that test and control groups would not be distinguishable (zero effect). RESULTS A total of 126 studies were found. From these, 28 were initial studies. When all 98 replicative studies were considered, 70.4% (i.e. 69) reported a result comparable to that of the initial study, 20.4% (20) zero effect and 9.2% (9) an opposite result. Both for the studies until 1994 and the studies 1995-2015 the null-hypothesis (dominance of zero results) should be rejected. Furthermore, the odds of finding a comparable result are generally higher than of finding an opposite result. Although this is true for all three types of replication studies, the fraction of comparable studies diminishes from laboratory-internal (total 82.9%) to multicentre (total 75%) to external (total 48.3%), while the fraction of opposite results was 4.9%, 10.7% and 13.8%. Furthermore, it became obvious that the probability of an external replication producing comparable results is bigger for models that had already been further scrutinized by the initial researchers. CONCLUSIONS We found 28 experimental models which underwent replication. In total, 24 models were replicated with comparable results, 12 models with zero effect, and 6 models with opposite results. Five models were externally reproduced with comparable results. We encourage further replications of studies in order to learn more about the model systems used.

The strengh model of self-control in sport and exercise psychology

The strength model of self-control assumes that all acts of self-control (e.g., emotion regulation, persistence) are empowered by a single global metaphorical strength that has limited capacity. This strength can become temporarily depleted after a primary self-control act, which, in turn, can impair performance in subsequent acts of self-control. Recently, the assumptions of the strength model of self-control also have been adopted and tested in the field of sport and exercise psychology. The present review paper aims to give an overview of recent developments in self-control research based on the strength model of self-control. Furthermore, recent research on interventions on how to improve and revitalize self-control strength will be presented. Finally, the strength model of self-control has been criticized lately, as well as expanded in scope, so the present paper will also discuss alternative explanations of why previous acts of self-control can lead to impaired performance in sport and exercise.