Prediction of hip fracture risk by quantitative ultrasound in more than 7000 Swiss women > or =70 years of age: comparison of three technologically different bone ultrasound devices in the SEMOF study

To compare the prediction of hip fracture risk of several bone ultrasounds (QUS), 7062 Swiss women > or =70 years of age were measured with three QUSs (two of the heel, one of the phalanges). Heel QUSs were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS was not. INTRODUCTION: As the number of hip fracture is expected to increase during these next decades, it is important to develop strategies to detect subjects at risk. Quantitative bone ultrasound (QUS), an ionizing radiation-free method, which is transportable, could be interesting for this purpose. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Swiss Evaluation of the Methods of Measurement of Osteoporotic Fracture Risk (SEMOF) study is a multicenter cohort study, which compared three QUSs for the assessment of hip fracture risk in a sample of 7609 elderly ambulatory women > or =70 years of age. Two QUSs measured the heel (Achilles+; GE-Lunar and Sahara; Hologic), and one measured the heel (DBM Sonic 1200; IGEA). The Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the hazard of the first hip fracture, adjusted for age, BMI, and center, and the area under the ROC curves were calculated to compare the devices and their parameters. RESULTS: From the 7609 women who were included in the study, 7062 women 75.2 +/- 3.1 (SD) years of age were prospectively followed for 2.9 +/- 0.8 years. Eighty women reported a hip fracture. A decrease by 1 SD of the QUS variables corresponded to an increase of the hip fracture risk from 2.3 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.1) to 2.6 (95% CI, 1.9, 3.4) for the three variables of Achilles+ and from 2.2 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.0) to 2.4 (95% CI, 1.8, 3.2) for the three variables of Sahara. Risk gradients did not differ significantly among the variables of the two heel QUS devices. On the other hand, the phalanges QUS (DBM Sonic 1200) was not predictive of hip fracture risk, with an adjusted hazard risk of 1.2 (95% CI, 0.9, 1.5), even after reanalysis of the digitalized data and using different cut-off levels (1700 or 1570 m/s). CONCLUSIONS: In this elderly women population, heel QUS devices were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS device was not.

Prospectively assessed incidence, severity, and determinants of respiratory symptoms in the first year of life

Respiratory symptoms are common in infancy. Nevertheless, few prospective birth cohort studies have studied the epidemiology of respiratory symptoms in normal infants. The aim of this study was to prospectively obtain reliable data on incidence, severity, and determinants of common respiratory symptoms (including cough and wheeze) in normal infants and to determine factors associated with these symptoms. In a prospective population-based birth cohort, we assessed respiratory symptoms during the first year of life by weekly phone calls to the mothers. Poisson regression was used to examine the association between symptoms and various risk factors. In the first year of life, respiratory symptoms occurred in 181/195 infants (93%), more severe symptoms in 89 (46%). The average infant had respiratory symptoms for 4 weeks and 90% had symptoms for less than 12 weeks (range 0 to 23). Male sex, higher birth weight, maternal asthma, having older siblings and nursery care were associated with more, maternal hay fever with fewer respiratory symptoms. The association with prenatal maternal smoking decreased with time since birth. This study provides reliable data on the frequency of cough and wheeze during the first year of life in healthy infants; this may help in the interpretation of published hospital and community-based studies. The apparently reduced risk in children of mothers with hayfever but no asthma, and the decreasing effect of prenatal smoke exposure over time illustrate the complexity of respiratory pathology in the first year of life.

A coronary heart disease risk model for predicting the effect of potent antiretroviral therapy in HIV-1 infected men

BACKGROUND: Many HIV-infected patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) experience metabolic complications including dyslipidaemia and insulin resistance, which may increase their coronary heart disease (CHD) risk. We developed a prognostic model for CHD tailored to the changes in risk factors observed in patients starting HAART. METHODS: Data from five cohort studies (British Regional Heart Study, Caerphilly and Speedwell Studies, Framingham Offspring Study, Whitehall II) on 13,100 men aged 40-70 and 114,443 years of follow up were used. CHD was defined as myocardial infarction or death from CHD. Model fit was assessed using the Akaike Information Criterion; generalizability across cohorts was examined using internal-external cross-validation. RESULTS: A parametric model based on the Gompertz distribution generalized best. Variables included in the model were systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglyceride, glucose, diabetes mellitus, body mass index and smoking status. Compared with patients not on HAART, the estimated CHD hazard ratio (HR) for patients on HAART was 1.46 (95% CI 1.15-1.86) for moderate and 2.48 (95% CI 1.76-3.51) for severe metabolic complications. CONCLUSIONS: The change in the risk of CHD in HIV-infected men starting HAART can be estimated based on typical changes in risk factors, assuming that HRs estimated using data from non-infected men are applicable to HIV-infected men. Based on this model the risk of CHD is likely to increase, but increases may often be modest, and could be offset by lifestyle changes.

[Heifer breeding farms as a source for spreading the BVD virus?]

It is well known that, in Switzerland, communal grazing of livestock on alpine pastures plays an important role in the spread of BVD virus. Analogously, we might expect that the communal raising on farms specialising in raising heifers of animals born on different farms would also favour the spread of BVDV. This study investigated whether a persistently infected (PI) breeding heifer kept on this type of farm over a period of 26 months would put the other animals at risk of being infected.The PI-animal was in contact with 75 heifers (here defined as contact animals) on this farm. Thirty-two of the contact animals that were probably pregnant (animals at risk of giving birth to a PI-calf) were moved to 8 different breeding farms (here defined as farms at risk). On these 8 farms, 246 calves were found to be at risk of being infected with BVDV. We examined 78 calves and investigated whether the move of the pregnant animals from their original farm had permitted the virus to spread to these 8 other farms.The contact animals had a seroprevalence of 92% and the animals at risk a seroprevalence of 100%. Only one PI-animal was found on the farms at risk.This BVD infection, however, occurred independently of the PI-breeding animal. Seropositive calves were found only on 2 farms. This study did not provide any proof for a spread of BVDV with the PI-breeding animal as a source; likewise, no persistent infection was proven to exist on the farms at risk. This result is likely to be representative for the endemic situation of BVD in Switzerland. Thus, PI-animals present on heifer raising farms infect calves well before servicing. Hence, no new PI-animals are generated, and the infection becomes self-limiting. When we reconstructed the animal movements between the farms and determined the animals to be examined with the aid of the Swiss national animal traffic database (TVD) we found the data of 37% of the heifers to be incomplete and failed to successfully establish the whereabouts of 3 animals.

Spatiotemporal dynamics: the need for an innovative approach in mountain hazard risk management

Starting with an overview on losses due to mountain hazards in the Russian Federation and the European Alps, the question is raised why a substantial number of events still are recorded—despite considerable efforts in hazard mitigation and risk reduction. The main reason for this paradox lies in a missing dynamic risk-based approach, and it is shown that these dynamics have different roots: firstly, neglecting climate change and systems dynamics, the development of hazard scenarios is based on the static approach of design events. Secondly, due to economic development and population dynamics, the elements at risk exposed are subject to spatial and temporal changes. These issues are discussed with respect to temporal and spatial demands. As a result, it is shown how risk is dynamic on a long-term and short-term scale, which has to be acknowledged in the risk concept if this concept is targeted at a sustainable development of mountain regions. A conceptual model is presented that can be used for dynamical risk assessment, and it is shown by different management strategies how this model may be converted into practice. Furthermore, the interconnectedness and interaction between hazard and risk are addressed in order to enhance prevention, the level of protection and the degree of preparedness.

Comparing growth trajectories of risk behaviors from late adolescence through young adulthood: An accelerated design

Risk behaviors such as substance use or deviance are often limited to the early stages of the life course. Whereas the onset of risk behavior is well studied, less is currently known about the decline and timing of cessation of risk behaviors of different domains during young adulthood. Prevalence and longitudinal developmental patterning of alcohol use, drinking to the point of drunkenness, smoking, cannabis use, deviance, and HIV-related sexual risk behavior were compared in a Swiss community sample (N = 2,843). Using a longitudinal cohort-sequential approach to link multiple assessments with 3 waves of data for each individual, the studied period spanned the ages of 16 to 29 years. Although smoking had a higher prevalence, both smoking and drinking up to the point of drunkenness followed an inverted U-shaped curve. Alcohol consumption was also best described by a quadratic model, though largely stable at a high level through the late 20s. Sexual risk behavior increased slowly from age 16 to age 22 and then remained largely stable. In contrast, cannabis use and deviance linearly declined from age 16 to age 29. Young men were at higher risk for all behaviors than were young women, but apart from deviance, patterning over time was similar for both sexes. Results about the timing of increase and decline as well as differences between risk behaviors may inform tailored prevention programs during the transition from late adolescence to adulthood.

Index-Oriented Methodologies for Landslide Consequence Analysis: An Application to a Mountain Community in the French Alps

Consequence analysis is a key aspect of anchoring assessment of landslide impacts to present and long-term development planning. Although several approaches have been developed over the last decade, some of them are difficult to apply in practice, mainly because of the lack of valuable data on historical damages or on damage functions. In this paper, two possible consequence indicators based on a combination of descriptors of the exposure of the elements at risk are proposed in order to map the potential impacts of landslides and highlight the most vulnerable areas. The first index maps the physical vulnerability due to landslide; the second index maps both direct damage (physical, structural, functional) and indirect damage (socio-economic impacts) of landslide hazards. The indexes have been computed for the 200 km2 area of the Barcelonnette Basin (South French Alps), and their potential applications are discussed.

A comparative study of different in vitro lung cell culture systems to assess the most beneficial tool for screening the potential adverse effects of carbon nanotubes

To determine the potential inhalatory risk posed by carbon nanotubes (CNTs), a tier-based approach beginning with an in vitro assessment must be adopted. The purpose of this study therefore was to compare 4 commonly used in vitro systems of the human lung (human blood monocyte-derived macrophages [MDM] and monocyte-derived dendritic cells [MDDC], 16HBE14o- epithelial cells, and a sophisticated triple cell co-culture model [TCC-C]) via assessment of the biological impact of different CNTs (single-walled CNTs [SWCNTs] and multiwalled CNTs [MWCNTs]) over 24h. No significant cytotoxicity was observed with any of the cell types tested, although a significant (p < .05), dose-dependent increase in tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α following SWCNT and MWCNT exposure at concentrations up to 0.02mg/ml to MDM, MDDC, and the TCC-C was found. The concentration of TNF-α released by the MDM and MDDC was significantly higher (p < .05) than the TCC-C. Significant increases (p < .05) in interleukin (IL)-8 were also found for both 16HBE14o- epithelial cells and the TCC-C after SWCNTs and MWCNTs exposure up to 0.02mg/ml. The TCC-C, however, elicited a significantly (p < .05) higher IL-8 release than the epithelial cells. The oxidative potential of both SWCNTs and MWCNTs (0.005-0.02mg/ml) measured by reduced glutathione (GSH) content showed a significant difference (p < .05) between each monoculture and the TCC-C. It was concluded that because only the co-culture system could assess each endpoint adequately, that, in comparison with monoculture systems, multicellular systems that take into consideration important cell type-to-cell type interactions could be used as predictive in vitro screening tools for determining the potential deleterious effects associated with CNTs.

The Galactic Cosmic Ray Intensity over the Past 106–109 Years as Recorded by Cosmogenic Nuclides in Meteorites and Terrestrial Samples

Concentrations of stable and radioactive nuclides produced by cosmic ray particles in meteorites allow us to track the long term average of the primary flux of galactic cosmic rays (GCR). During the past ∼10 Ma, the average GCR flux remained constant over timescales of hundreds of thousands to millions of years, and, if corrected for known variations in solar modulation, also during the past several years to hundreds of years. Because the cosmic ray concentrations in meteorites represent integral signals, it is difficult to assess the limits of uncertainty of this statement, but they are larger than the often quoted analytical and model uncertainties of some 30%. Time series of concentrations of the radionuclide 10Be in terrestrial samples strengthen the conclusions drawn from meteorite studies, indicating that the GCR intensity on a ∼0.5 million year scale has remained constant within some ±10% during the past ∼10 million years. The very long-lived radioactive nuclide 40K allows to assess the GCR flux over about the past one billion years. The flux over the past few million years has been the same as the longer-term average in the past 0.5–1 billion years within a factor of ∼1.5. However, newer data do not confirm a long-held belief that the flux in the past few million years has been higher by some 30–50% than the very long term average. Neither does our analysis confirm a hypothesis that the iron meteorite data indicate a ∼150 million year periodicity in the cosmic ray flux, possibly related to variations in the long-term terrestrial climate.

High intestinal cholesterol absorption is associated with cardiovascular disease and risk alleles in ABCG8 and ABO: evidence from the LURIC and YFS cohorts and from a meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVES This study sought to determine whether high intestinal cholesterol absorption represents a cardiovascular risk factor and to link ABCG8 and ABO variants to cardiovascular disease (CVD). BACKGROUND Plant sterol-enriched functional foods are widely used for cholesterol lowering. Their regular intake yields a 2-fold increase in circulating plant sterol levels that equally represent markers of cholesterol absorption. Variants in ABCG8 and ABO have been associated with circulating plant sterol levels and CVD, thereby suggesting atherogenic effects of plant sterols or of cholesterol uptake. METHODS The cholestanol-to-cholesterol ratio (CR) was used as an estimate of cholesterol absorption because it is independent of plant sterols. First, we investigated the associations of 6 single nucleotide polymorphisms in ABCG8 and ABO with CR in the LURIC (LUdwisghafen RIsk and Cardiovascular health study) and the YFS (Young Finns Study) cohorts. Second, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to investigate whether CR might be related to CVD. RESULTS In LURIC, the minor alleles of rs4245791 and rs4299376 and the major alleles of rs41360247, rs6576629, and rs4953023 of the ABCG8 gene and the minor allele of rs657152 of the ABO gene were significantly associated with higher CR. Consistent results were obtained for rs4245791, rs4299376, rs6576629, and rs4953023 in YFS. The meta-analysis, including 6 studies and 4,362 individuals, found that CR was significantly increased in individuals with CVD. CONCLUSIONS High cholesterol absorption is associated with risk alleles in ABCG8 and ABO and with CVD. Harm caused by elevated cholesterol absorption rather than by plant sterols may therefore mediate the relationships of ABCG8 and ABO variants with CVD.

Determination of carbohydrate-deficient transferrin in human serum by capillary zone electrophoresis: evaluation of assay performance and quality assurance over a 10-year period in the routine arena.

The performance of high-resolution CZE for determination of carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT) in human serum based on internal and external quality data gathered over a 10-year period is reported. The assay comprises mixing of serum with a Fe(III) ion-containing solution prior to analysis of the iron saturated mixture in a dynamically double-coated capillary using a commercial buffer at alkaline pH. CDT values obtained with a human serum of a healthy individual and commercial quality control sera are shown to vary less than 10%. Values of a control from a specific lot were found to slowly decrease as function of time (less than 10% per year). Furthermore, due to unknown reasons, gradual changes in the monitored pattern around pentasialo-transferrin were detected, which limit the use of commercial control sera of the same lot to less than 2 years. Analysis of external quality control sera revealed correct classification of the samples over the entire 10-year period. Data obtained compare well with those of HPLC and CZE assays of other laboratories. The data gathered over a 10-year period demonstrate the robustness of the high-resolution CZE assay. This is the first account of a CZE-based CDT assay with complete internal and external quality assessment over an extended time period.

Analysis of caesarean section rates over time in a single Swiss centre using a ten-group classification system.

OBJECTIVE Caesarean section (CS) rates have risen over the past two decades. The aim of this observational study was to identify time-dependent variations in CS and vaginal delivery rates over a period of 11 years. METHOD All deliveries (13,701 deliveries during the period 1999-2009) at the University Women's Hospital Bern were analysed using an internationally standardised and approved ten-group classification system. Caesarean sections on maternal request (CSMR) were evaluated separately. RESULTS We detected an overall CS rate of 36.63% and an increase in the CS rate over time (p <0.001). Low-risk profile groups were the two largest populations and displayed low CS rates, with significantly decreasing relative size over time. The relative size of groups with induced labour increased significantly, but this did not have an impact on the overall CS rate. Pregnancies complicated by breech position, multiple pregnancies and abnormal lies did not have an impact on overall CS rate. The biggest contributor to a high CS rate was preterm delivery and the existence of a uterine scar from a previous CS. CSMR was 1.45% and did not have an impact on the overall CS rate. CONCLUSION The observational study identified wide variations in caesarean section and vaginal delivery rates across the groups over time, and a shift towards high-risk populations was noted. The biggest contributors to high CS rates were identified; namely, previous uterine scar and preterm delivery. Interventions aiming to reduce CS rates are planned.

Risk factors associated with the longevity of multi-rooted teeth. Long-term outcomes after active and supportive periodontal therapy

AIM To investigate risk factors for the loss of multi-rooted teeth (MRT) in subjects treated for periodontitis and enrolled in supportive periodontal therapy (SPT). MATERIAL AND METHODS A total of 172 subjects were examined before (T0) and after active periodontal therapy (APT)(T1) and following a mean of 11.5 ± 5.2 (SD) years of SPT (T2). The association of risk factors with loss of MRT was analysed with multilevel logistic regression. The tooth was the unit of analysis. RESULTS Furcation involvement (FI) = 1 before APT was not a risk factor for tooth loss compared with FI = 0 (p = 0.37). Between T0 and T2, MRT with FI = 2 (OR: 2.92, 95% CI: 1.68, 5.06, p = 0.0001) and FI = 3 (OR: 6.85, 95% CI: 3.40, 13.83, p < 0.0001) were at a significantly higher risk to be lost compared with those with FI = 0. During SPT, smokers lost significantly more MRT compared with non-smokers (OR: 2.37, 95% CI: 1.05, 5.35, p = 0.04). Non-smoking and compliant subjects with FI = 0/1 at T1 lost significantly less MRT during SPT compared with non-compliant smokers with FI = 2 (OR: 10.11, 95% CI: 2.91, 35.11, p < 0.0001) and FI = 3 (OR: 17.18, 95% CI: 4.98, 59.28, p < 0.0001) respectively. CONCLUSIONS FI = 1 was not a risk factor for tooth loss compared with FI = 0. FI = 2/3, smoking and lack of compliance with regular SPT represented risk factors for the loss of MRT in subjects treated for periodontitis.

Effect of standardized training on the reliability of the Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool: a study protocol

BACKGROUND The Cochrane risk of bias (RoB) tool has been widely embraced by the systematic review community, but several studies have reported that its reliability is low. We aim to investigate whether training of raters, including objective and standardized instructions on how to assess risk of bias, can improve the reliability of this tool. We describe the methods that will be used in this investigation and present an intensive standardized training package for risk of bias assessment that could be used by contributors to the Cochrane Collaboration and other reviewers. METHODS/DESIGN This is a pilot study. We will first perform a systematic literature review to identify randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that will be used for risk of bias assessment. Using the identified RCTs, we will then do a randomized experiment, where raters will be allocated to two different training schemes: minimal training and intensive standardized training. We will calculate the chance-corrected weighted Kappa with 95% confidence intervals to quantify within- and between-group Kappa agreement for each of the domains of the risk of bias tool. To calculate between-group Kappa agreement, we will use risk of bias assessments from pairs of raters after resolution of disagreements. Between-group Kappa agreement will quantify the agreement between the risk of bias assessment of raters in the training groups and the risk of bias assessment of experienced raters. To compare agreement of raters under different training conditions, we will calculate differences between Kappa values with 95% confidence intervals. DISCUSSION This study will investigate whether the reliability of the risk of bias tool can be improved by training raters using standardized instructions for risk of bias assessment. One group of inexperienced raters will receive intensive training on risk of bias assessment and the other will receive minimal training. By including a control group with minimal training, we will attempt to mimic what many review authors commonly have to do, that is-conduct risk of bias assessment in RCTs without much formal training or standardized instructions. If our results indicate that an intense standardized training does improve the reliability of the RoB tool, our study is likely to help improve the quality of risk of bias assessments, which is a central component of evidence synthesis.

Developing Psychosis and Its Risk States Through the Lens of Schizotypy

Starting from the early descriptions of Kraepelin and Bleuler, the construct of schizotypy was developed from observations of aberrations in nonpsychotic family members of schizophrenia patients. In contemporary diagnostic manuals, the positive symptoms of schizotypal personality disorder were included in the ultra high-risk (UHR) criteria 20 years ago, and nowadays are broadly employed in clinical early detection of psychosis. The schizotypy construct, now dissociated from strict familial risk, also informed research on the liability to develop any psychotic disorder, and in particular schizophrenia-spectrum disorders, even outside clinical settings. Against the historical background of schizotypy it is surprising that evidence from longitudinal studies linking schizotypy, UHR, and conversion to psychosis has only recently emerged; and it still remains unclear how schizotypy may be positioned in high-risk research. Following a comprehensive literature search, we review 18 prospective studies on 15 samples examining the evidence for a link between trait schizotypy and conversion to psychosis in 4 different types of samples: general population, clinical risk samples according to UHR and/or basic symptom criteria, genetic (familial) risk, and clinical samples at-risk for a nonpsychotic schizophrenia-spectrum diagnosis. These prospective studies underline the value of schizotypy in high-risk research, but also point to the lack of evidence needed to better define the position of the construct of schizotypy within a developmental psychopathology perspective of emerging psychosis and schizophrenia-spectrum disorders