Rolling stones and tree rings: A state of research on dendrogeomorphic reconstructions of rockfall

This progress report focuses on the contribution of tree-ring series to rockfall research and on recent development and challenges in the field. Dendrogeomorphic techniques have been used extensively since the early 2000s and several approaches have been developed to extract rockfall signals from tree-ring records of conifer trees. The reconstruction of rockfall chronologies has been hampered in the past by sample sizes that decrease as one goes back in time, as well as by a paucity of studies that include broadleaved tree species, which are in fact quite common in rockfall-prone environments. In this report, we propose a new approach considering impact probability and quantification of uncertainty in the reconstruction of rockfall time series as well as a quantitative estimate of presumably missed events. In addition, we outline new approaches and future perspectives for the inclusion of woody vegetation in hazard assessment procedures, and end with future thematic perspectives.

Potentials and pitfalls of clinical peptidomics and metabolomics

Clinical peptidomics and metabolomics are two emerging "-omics" technologies with the potential not only to detect disease-specific markers, but also to give insight into the disease dependency of degradation processes and metabolic pathway alterations. However, despite their rapid evolution and major investments, a clinical breakthrough, such as the approval of a major cancer biomarker, is still out of sight. What are the reasons for this failure? In this review we focus on three important factors: sensitivity, specificity and the avoidance of bias. The way to clinical implementation of peptidomics and metabolomics is still hampered by many of the problems that had to be solved for genomics and proteomics in the past, as well as new ones that require the creation of new analytic, computational and interpretative techniques. The greatest challenge, however, will be the integration of information from different "-omics" subdisciplines into straightforward answers to clinical questions, for example, in the form of new, superior "meta-markers".

Paleoclimate data-model comparison and the role of climate forcings over the past 1500 years

The past 1500 years provide a valuable opportunity to study the response of the climate system to external forcings. However, the integration of paleoclimate proxies with climate modeling is critical to improving the understanding of climate dynamics. In this paper, a climate system model and proxy records are therefore used to study the role of natural and anthropogenic forcings in driving the global climate. The inverse and forward approaches to paleoclimate data–model comparison are applied, and sources of uncertainty are identified and discussed. In the first of two case studies, the climate model simulations are compared with multiproxy temperature reconstructions. Robust solar and volcanic signals are detected in Southern Hemisphere temperatures, with a possible volcanic signal detected in the Northern Hemisphere. The anthropogenic signal dominates during the industrial period. It is also found that seasonal and geographical biases may cause multiproxy reconstructions to overestimate the magnitude of the long-term preindustrial cooling trend. In the second case study, the model simulations are compared with a coral δ18O record from the central Pacific Ocean. It is found that greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, and volcanic eruptions all influence the mean state of the central Pacific, but there is no evidence that natural or anthropogenic forcings have any systematic impact on El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The proxy climate relationship is found to change over time, challenging the assumption of stationarity that underlies the interpretation of paleoclimate proxies. These case studies demonstrate the value of paleoclimate data–model comparison but also highlight the limitations of current techniques and demonstrate the need to develop alternative approaches.

Systematic review of the survival rate and incidence of biologic, technical, and esthetic complications of single implant abutments supporting fixed prostheses

Purpose: To assess the 5-year survival rate and number of technical, biologic, and esthetic complications involving implant abutments. Materials and Methods: Electronic (Medline) and hand searches were performed to assess studies on metal and ceramic implant abutments. Relevant data from a previous review were included. Two reviewers independently extracted the data. Failure and complication rates were analyzed, and estimates of 5-year survival proportions were calculated from the relationship between event rate and survival function. Multivariable robust Poisson regression was used to compare abutment characteristics. Results: The search yielded 1,558 titles and 274 abstracts. Twenty-four studies were selected for data analysis. The survival rate for ceramic abutments was 97.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]): 89.6% to 99.4%) and 97.6% (95% CI: 96.2% to 98.5%) for metal abutments. The overall 5-year rate for technical complications was 11.8% (95% CI: 8.5% to 16.3%), 8.9% (95% CI: 4.3% to 17.7%) for ceramic and 12.0% (95% CI: 8.5% to 16.8%) for metal abutments. Biologic complications occurred with an overall rate of 6.4% (95% CI: 3.3% to 12.0%), 10.4% (95% CI: 1.9% to 46.7%) for ceramic, and 6.1% (95% CI: 3.1% to 12.0%) for metal abutments. Conclusions: The present meta-analysis on single-implant prostheses presents high survival rates of single implants, abutments, and prostheses after 5 years of function. No differences were found for the survival and failure rates of ceramic and metal abutments. No significant differences were found for technical, biologic, and esthetic complications of internally and externally connected abutments.

Integrating fragmented evidence by network meta-analysis: relative effectiveness of psychological interventions for adults with post-traumatic stress disorder

BACKGROUND To summarize the available evidence on the effectiveness of psychological interventions for patients with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD). METHOD We searched bibliographic databases and reference lists of relevant systematic reviews and meta-analyses for randomized controlled trials that compared specific psychological interventions for adults with PTSD symptoms either head-to-head or against control interventions using non-specific intervention components, or against wait-list control. Two investigators independently extracted the data and assessed trial characteristics. RESULTS The analyses included 4190 patients in 66 trials. An initial network meta-analysis showed large effect sizes (ESs) for all specific psychological interventions (ESs between -1.10 and -1.37) and moderate effects of psychological interventions that were used to control for non-specific intervention effects (ESs -0.58 and -0.62). ES differences between various types of specific psychological interventions were absent to small (ES differences between 0.00 and 0.27). Considerable between-trial heterogeneity occurred (τ 2 = 0.30). Stratified analyses revealed that trials that adhered to DSM-III/IV criteria for PTSD were associated with larger ESs. However, considerable heterogeneity remained. Heterogeneity was reduced in trials with adequate concealment of allocation and in large-sized trials. We found evidence for small-study bias. CONCLUSIONS Our findings show that patients with a formal diagnosis of PTSD and those with subclinical PTSD symptoms benefit from different psychological interventions. We did not identify any intervention that was consistently superior to other specific psychological interventions. However, the robustness of evidence varies considerably between different psychological interventions for PTSD, with most robust evidence for cognitive behavioral and exposure therapies.

Prediction and prevention of psychosis: current progress and future tasks

Prevention of psychoses has been intensively investigated within the past two decades, and particularly, prediction has been much advanced. Depending on the applied risk indicators, current criteria are associated with average, yet significantly heterogeneous transition rates of ≥30 % within 3 years, further increasing with longer follow-up periods. Risk stratification offers a promising approach to advance current prediction as it can help to reduce heterogeneity of transition rates and to identify subgroups with specific needs and response patterns, enabling a targeted intervention. It may also be suitable to improve risk enrichment. Current results suggest the future implementation of multi-step risk algorithms combining sensitive risk detection by cognitive basic symptoms (COGDIS) and ultra-high-risk (UHR) criteria with additional individual risk estimation by a prognostic index that relies on further predictors such as additional clinical indicators, functional impairment, neurocognitive deficits, and EEG and structural MRI abnormalities, but also considers resilience factors. Simply combining COGDIS and UHR criteria in a second step of risk stratification produced already a 4-year hazard rate of 0.66. With regard to prevention, two recent meta-analyses demonstrated that preventive measures enable a reduction in 12-month transition rates by 54-56 % with most favorable numbers needed to treat of 9-10. Unfortunately, psychosocial functioning, another important target of preventive efforts, did not improve. However, these results are based on a relatively small number of trials; and more methodologically sound studies and a stronger consideration of individual profiles of clinical needs by modular intervention programs are required

Modeling the formation and aging of secondary organic aerosols during CalNex 2010

Four different literature parameterizations for the formation and evolution of urban secondary organic aerosol (SOA) frequently used in 3-D models are evaluated using a 0-D box model representing the Los Angeles metropolitan region during the California Research at the Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change (CalNex) 2010 campaign. We constrain the model predictions with measurements from several platforms and compare predictions with particle- and gas-phase observations from the CalNex Pasadena ground site. That site provides a unique opportunity to study aerosol formation close to anthropogenic emission sources with limited recirculation. The model SOA that formed only from the oxidation of VOCs (V-SOA) is insufficient to explain the observed SOA concentrations, even when using SOA parameterizations with multi-generation oxidation that produce much higher yields than have been observed in chamber experiments, or when increasing yields to their upper limit estimates accounting for recently reported losses of vapors to chamber walls. The Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF-CMAQ) model (version 5.0.1) provides excellent predictions of secondary inorganic particle species but underestimates the observed SOA mass by a factor of 25 when an older VOC-only parameterization is used, which is consistent with many previous model–measurement comparisons for pre-2007 anthropogenic SOA modules in urban areas. Including SOA from primary semi-volatile and intermediate-volatility organic compounds (P-S/IVOCs) following the parameterizations of Robinson et al. (2007), Grieshop et al. (2009), or Pye and Seinfeld (2010) improves model–measurement agreement for mass concentration. The results from the three parameterizations show large differences (e.g., a factor of 3 in SOA mass) and are not well constrained, underscoring the current uncertainties in this area. Our results strongly suggest that other precursors besides VOCs, such as P-S/IVOCs, are needed to explain the observed SOA concentrations in Pasadena. All the recent parameterizations overpredict urban SOA formation at long photochemical ages (3 days) compared to observations from multiple sites, which can lead to problems in regional and especially global modeling. However, reducing IVOC emissions by one-half in the model to better match recent IVOC measurements improves SOA predictions at these long photochemical ages. Among the explicitly modeled VOCs, the precursor compounds that contribute the greatest SOA mass are methylbenzenes. Measured polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (naphthalenes) contribute 0.7% of the modeled SOA mass. The amounts of SOA mass from diesel vehicles, gasoline vehicles, and cooking emissions are estimated to be 16–27, 35–61, and 19–35 %, respectively, depending on the parameterization used, which is consistent with the observed fossil fraction of urban SOA, 71(+-3) %. The relative contribution of each source is uncertain by almost a factor of 2 depending on the parameterization used. In-basin biogenic VOCs are predicted to contribute only a few percent to SOA. A regional SOA background of approximately 2.1 μgm-3 is also present due to the long-distance transport of highly aged OA, likely with a substantial contribution from regional biogenic SOA. The percentage of SOA from diesel vehicle emissions is the same, within the estimated uncertainty, as reported in previous work that analyzed the weekly cycles in OA concentrations (Bahreini et al., 2012; Hayes et al., 2013). However, the modeling work presented here suggests a strong anthropogenic source of modern carbon in SOA, due to cooking emissions, which was not accounted for in those previous studies and which is higher on weekends. Lastly, this work adapts a simple two-parameter model to predict SOA concentration and O/C from urban emissions. This model successfully predicts SOA concentration, and the optimal parameter combination is very similar to that found for Mexico City. This approach provides a computationally inexpensive method for predicting urban SOA in global and climate models. We estimate pollution SOA to account for 26 Tg yr-1 of SOA globally, or 17% of global SOA, one third of which is likely to be non-fossil.

Geometry and kinematics of the Roisan-Cignana Shear Zone, and the orogenic evolution of the Dent Blanche Tectonic System (Western Alps)

The Dent Blanche Tectonic System (DBTS) is a composite thrust sheet derived from the previously thinned passive Adriatic continental margin. A kilometric high-strain zone, the Roisan-Cignana Shear Zone (RCSZ) defines the major tectonic boundary within the DBTS and separates it into two subunits, the Dent Blanche s.s. nappe to the northwest and the Mont Mary nappe to the southeast. Within this shear zone, tectonic slices of Mesozoic and pre-Alpine meta-sediments became amalgamated with continental basement rocks of the Adriatic margin. The occurrence of high pressure assemblages along the contact between these tectonic slices indicates that the amalgamation occurred prior to or during the subduction process, at an early stage of the Alpine orogenic cycle. Detailed mapping, petrographic and structural analysis show that the Roisan-Cignana Shear Zone results from several superimposed Alpine structural and metamorphic stages. Subduction of the continental fragments is recorded by blueschist-facies deformation, whereas the Alpine collision is reflected by a greenschist facies overprint associated with the development of large-scale open folds. The postnappe evolution comprises the development of low-angle brittle faults, followed by large-scale folding (Vanzone phase) and finally brittle extensional faults. The RCSZ shows that fragments of continental crust had been torn off the passive continental margin prior to continental collision, thus recording the entire history of the orogenic cycle. The role of preceding Permo-Triassic lithospheric thinning, Jurassic rifting, and ablative subduction processes in controlling the removal of crustal fragments from the reactivated passive continental margin is discussed. Results of this study constrain the temporal sequence of the tectono-metamorphic processes involved in the assembly of the DBTS, but they also show limits on the interpretation. In particular it remains difficult to judge to what extent precollisional rifting at the Adriatic continental margin preconditioned the efficiency of convergent processes, i.e. accretion, subduction, and orogenic exhumation.

Estimation and calibration of the water isotope differential diffusion length in ice core records

Palaeoclimatic information can be retrieved from the diffusion of the stable water isotope signal during firnification of snow. The diffusion length, a measure for the amount of diffusion a layer has experienced, depends on the firn temperature and the accumulation rate. We show that the estimation of the diffusion length using power spectral densities (PSDs) of the record of a single isotope species can be biased by uncertainties in spectral properties of the isotope signal prior to diffusion. By using a second water isotope and calculating the difference in diffusion lengths between the two isotopes, this problem is circumvented. We study the PSD method applied to two isotopes in detail and additionally present a new forward diffusion method for retrieving the differential diffusion length based on the Pearson correlation between the two isotope signals. The two methods are discussed and extensively tested on synthetic data which are generated in a Monte Carlo manner. We show that calibration of the PSD method with this synthetic data is necessary to be able to objectively determine the differential diffusion length. The correlation-based method proves to be a good alternative for the PSD method as it yields precision equal to or somewhat higher than the PSD method. The use of synthetic data also allows us to estimate the accuracy and precision of the two methods and to choose the best sampling strategy to obtain past temperatures with the required precision. In addition to application to synthetic data the two methods are tested on stable-isotope records from the EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) ice core drilled in Dronning Maud Land, Antarctica, showing that reliable firn temperatures can be reconstructed with a typical uncertainty of 1.5 and 2 °C for the Holocene period and 2 and 2.5 °C for the last glacial period for the correlation and PSD method, respectively.

Advantages and controversies of depot antipsychotics in the treatment of patients with schizophrenia

BACKGROUND The objective of this article is to give an overview of the advantages and disadvantages of the use of depot antipsychotics in the treatment of schizophrenia. The focus is on efficacy, tolerability, relapse prevention, patient compliance and satisfaction compared to oral administration forms. MATERIAL AND METHODS A literature search was conducted in medical databases. The results of meta-analyses, randomized controlled trials and systematic reviews from the years 1999-2014 were included. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Depot antipsychotics ensure maintenance of constant blood levels and a continuous medication delivery. The efficacy and tolerability of depot antipsychotics are comparable to oral administration forms. Due to an improved medication compliance a reduction of relapse and hospitalization rates can be achieved. This is a key focus for improving outcomes and reducing costs in the treatment of schizophrenia.

Get real in individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis: a review of the methodology.

Individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis is an increasingly used approach for synthesizing and investigating treatment effect estimates. Over the past few years, numerous methods for conducting an IPD meta-analysis (IPD-MA) have been proposed, often making different assumptions and modeling choices while addressing a similar research question. We conducted a literature review to provide an overview of methods for performing an IPD-MA using evidence from clinical trials or non-randomized studies when investigating treatment efficacy. With this review, we aim to assist researchers in choosing the appropriate methods and provide recommendations on their implementation when planning and conducting an IPD-MA. © 2015 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

GetReal in network meta-analysis: a review of the methodology.

Pairwise meta-analysis is an established statistical tool for synthesizing evidence from multiple trials, but it is informative only about the relative efficacy of two specific interventions. The usefulness of pairwise meta-analysis is thus limited in real-life medical practice, where many competing interventions may be available for a certain condition and studies informing some of the pairwise comparisons may be lacking. This commonly encountered scenario has led to the development of network meta-analysis (NMA). In the last decade, several applications, methodological developments, and empirical studies in NMA have been published, and the area is thriving as its relevance to public health is increasingly recognized. This article presents a review of the relevant literature on NMA methodology aiming to pinpoint the developments that have appeared in the field. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Xenotransplantation of cryopreserved human ovarian tissue--a systematic review of MII oocyte maturation and discussion of it as a realistic option for restoring fertility after cancer treatment.

OBJECTIVE To systematically review the reporting of MII (MII) oocyte development after xenotransplantation of human ovarian tissue. DESIGN Systematic review in accordance with the guidelines of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA). SETTING Not applicable. PATIENT(S) Not applicable. INTERVENTION(S) Formation of MII oocytes after xenotransplantation of human ovarian tissue. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S) Any outcome reported in Pubmed. RESULT(S) Six publications were identified that report on formation of MII oocytes after xenotransplantation of human ovarian tissue. CONCLUSION(S) Xenografting of human ovarian tissue has proved to be a useful model for examining ovarian function and follicle development in vivo. With human follicles that have matured through xenografting, the possibility of cancer transmission and relapse can also be eliminated, because cancer cells are not able to penetrate the zona pellucida. The reported studies have demonstrated that xenografted ovarian tissue from a range of species, including humans, can produce antral follicles that contain mature (MII) oocytes, and it has been shown that mice oocytes have the potential to give rise to live young. Although some ethical questions remain unresolved, xenotransplantation may be a promising method for restoring fertility. This review furthermore describes the value of xenotransplantation as a tool in reproductive biology and discusses the ethical and potential safety issues regarding ovarian tissue xenotransplantation as a means of recovering fertility.

Variation in Current Management of Term and Late-Preterm Neonates at Risk for Early-Onset Sepsis "An International Survey and Review of Guidelines"

BACKGROUND Uncertainty about the presence of infection results in unnecessary and prolonged empiric antibiotic treatment of newborns at risk for early-onset sepsis (EOS). This study evaluates the impact of this uncertainty on the diversity in management. METHODS A web-based survey with questions addressing management of infection risk-adjusted scenarios was performed in Europe, North America, and Australia. Published national guidelines (n=5) were reviewed and compared to the results of the survey. RESULTS 439 Clinicians (68% were neonatologists) from 16 countries completed the survey. In the low-risk scenario, 29% would start antibiotic therapy and 26% would not, both groups without laboratory investigations; 45% would start if laboratory markers were abnormal. In the high-risk scenario, 99% would start antibiotic therapy. In the low-risk scenario, 89% would discontinue antibiotic therapy before 72 hours. In the high-risk scenario, 35% would discontinue therapy before 72 hours, 56% would continue therapy for five to seven days, and 9% for more than 7 days. Laboratory investigations were used in 31% of scenarios for the decision to start, and in 72% for the decision to discontinue antibiotic treatment. National guidelines differ considerably regarding the decision to start in low-risk and regarding the decision to continue therapy in higher risk situations. CONCLUSIONS There is a broad diversity of clinical practice in management of EOS and a lack of agreement between current guidelines. The results of the survey reflect the diversity of national guidelines. Prospective studies regarding management of neonates at risk of EOS with safety endpoints are needed.