Historical and idealized climate model experiments: an intercomparison of Earth system models of intermediate complexity

Both historical and idealized climate model experiments are performed with a variety of Earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) as part of a community contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report. Historical simulations start at 850 CE and continue through to 2005. The standard simulations include changes in forcing from solar luminosity, Earth's orbital configuration, CO2, additional greenhouse gases, land use, and sulphate and volcanic aerosols. In spite of very different modelled pre-industrial global surface air temperatures, overall 20th century trends in surface air temperature and carbon uptake are reasonably well simulated when compared to observed trends. Land carbon fluxes show much more variation between models than ocean carbon fluxes, and recent land fluxes appear to be slightly underestimated. It is possible that recent modelled climate trends or climate–carbon feedbacks are overestimated resulting in too much land carbon loss or that carbon uptake due to CO2 and/or nitrogen fertilization is underestimated. Several one thousand year long, idealized, 2 × and 4 × CO2 experiments are used to quantify standard model characteristics, including transient and equilibrium climate sensitivities, and climate–carbon feedbacks. The values from EMICs generally fall within the range given by general circulation models. Seven additional historical simulations, each including a single specified forcing, are used to assess the contributions of different climate forcings to the overall climate and carbon cycle response. The response of surface air temperature is the linear sum of the individual forcings, while the carbon cycle response shows a non-linear interaction between land-use change and CO2 forcings for some models. Finally, the preindustrial portions of the last millennium simulations are used to assess historical model carbon-climate feedbacks. Given the specified forcing, there is a tendency for the EMICs to underestimate the drop in surface air temperature and CO2 between the Medieval Climate Anomaly and the Little Ice Age estimated from palaeoclimate reconstructions. This in turn could be a result of unforced variability within the climate system, uncertainty in the reconstructions of temperature and CO2, errors in the reconstructions of forcing used to drive the models, or the incomplete representation of certain processes within the models. Given the forcing datasets used in this study, the models calculate significant land-use emissions over the pre-industrial period. This implies that land-use emissions might need to be taken into account, when making estimates of climate–carbon feedbacks from palaeoclimate reconstructions.

Scheduling of continuous and discontinuous material flows with intermediate storage restrictions

This paper deals with scheduling batch (i.e., discontinuous), continuous, and semicontinuous production in process industries (e.g., chemical, pharmaceutical, or metal casting industries) where intermediate storage facilities and renewable resources (processing units and manpower) of limited capacity have to be observed. First, different storage configurations typical of process industries are discussed. Second, a basic scheduling problem covering the three above production modes is presented. Third, (exact and truncated) branch-and-bound methods for the basic scheduling problem and the special case of batch scheduling are proposed and subjected to an experimental performance analysis. The solution approach presented is flexible and in principle simple, and it can (approximately) solve relatively large problem instances with sufficient accuracy.

Archaeological silence and ecorefuges: arid events in the Puna of Atacama during the Middle Holocene

This paper briefly summarizes presearch concerning the mid-Holocene in the western slope of the puna de Atacama (20–25°S). Proxy data and dates from palynological, limnological, geomorphological archives were compared with data recovered from the archaeological sites in high altitude basins, intermediate ravines and piemontane paleowetlands. Due to exceptionally favorable conditions, numerous Early Holocene archaeological sites were found. In contrast, the lack of occupations in previously populated areas suggests a decline in human activity during the arid mid-Holocene. In this context, two key concepts are introduced: ecorefuge or ecological refuge, and archaeological silence (silencio arqueológico). The first refers to the particular favorable locations occupied by human groups during the mid-Holocene. The second provides a better understanding about the impact of the arid interval during this period on human adaptations in the most barren territories of the New World.

Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction during the last millennium using multiple annual proxies

Previous studies have either exclusively used annual tree-ring data or have combined tree-ring series with other, lower temporal resolution proxy series. Both approaches can lead to significant uncertainties, as tree-rings may underestimate the amplitude of past temperature variations, and the validity of non-annual records cannot be clearly assessed. In this study, we assembled 45 published Northern Hemisphere (NH) temperature proxy records covering the past millennium, each of which satisfied 3 essential criteria: the series must be of annual resolution, span at least a thousand years, and represent an explicit temperature signal. Suitable climate archives included ice cores, varved lake sediments, tree-rings and speleothems. We reconstructed the average annual land temperature series for the NH over the last millennium by applying 3 different reconstruction techniques: (1) principal components (PC) plus second-order autoregressive model (AR2), (2) composite plus scale (CPS) and (3) regularized errors-in-variables approach (EIV). Our reconstruction is in excellent agreement with 6 climate model simulations (including the first 5 models derived from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and an earth system model of intermediate complexity (LOVECLIM), showing similar temperatures at multi-decadal timescales; however, all simulations appear to underestimate the temperature during the Medieval Warm Period (MWP). A comparison with other NH reconstructions shows that our results are consistent with earlier studies. These results indicate that well-validated annual proxy series should be used to minimize proxy-based artifacts, and that these proxy series contain sufficient information to reconstruct the low-frequency climate variability over the past millennium.

Galilee Blooming: First Palynological and Archaeological Data from an Early Byzantine Cistern at Horvat Kur

Preliminary archaeological and palynological results are presented from an early Byzantine cistern of the village Horvat Kur in eastern Lower Galilee/Israel. The rural site was settled from the Hellenistic until the Early Arab period, its synagogue was constructed shortly after 425 AD and renovated sometimes during the 2nd half of the 6th century AD. It was abandoned probably as a consequence of the earthquake of 749 AD. The intact and properly sealed cistern contained complete or fully restorable pottery. Two cooking pots from the early 5th century AD comprised sediments which was sampled for palynological purposes. Both samples, as well as a sample from the soil beneath one of the pots and a modern surface sample from the site, revealed well preserved palynomorphs in comparably high concentration showing a great potential of the cistern as a pollen archive. The pollen content points to an open, grassy semiarid landscape with an apparent scarcity of cultivars and trees in the vicinity of the site and an abundance of herbs, especially Asteraceae, which are still commonly found in modern regional vegetation.

Regorafenib as second-line therapy for intermediate or advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: Multicentre, open-label, phase II safety study

PURPOSE: We assessed the safety of the multikinase inhibitor regorafenib in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) that had progressed following first-line sorafenib. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Thirty-six patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage B or C HCC and preserved to mildly impaired liver function (Child-Pugh class A) received regorafenib 160 mg once daily in cycles of 3 weeks on/1 week off treatment until disease progression, unacceptable toxicity, death or patient/physician decision to discontinue. The primary end-point was safety; secondary end-points included efficacy (including time to progression and overall survival). RESULTS: The median treatment duration was 19.5 weeks (range 2-103). At data cutoff, three patients remained on treatment. Reasons for discontinuation were adverse events (n=20), disease progression (n=10), consent withdrawal (n=2) and death (n=1). Seventeen patients required dose reductions (mostly for adverse events [n=15]); 35 patients had treatment interruption (mostly for adverse events [n=32] or patient error [n=11]). The most frequent treatment-related adverse events were hand-foot skin reaction (any grade n=19; grade ≥3 n=5), diarrhoea (n=19; n=2), fatigue (n=19; n=6), hypothyroidism (n=15; n=0), anorexia (n=13; n=0), hypertension (n=13; n=1), nausea (n=12; n=0) and voice changes (n=10; n=0). Disease control was achieved in 26 patients (partial response n=1; stable disease n=25). Median time to progression was 4.3 months. Median overall survival was 13.8 months. CONCLUSION: Regorafenib had acceptable tolerability and evidence of antitumour activity in patients with intermediate or advanced HCC that progressed following first-line sorafenib.

Determination of carbohydrate-deficient transferrin in human serum by capillary zone electrophoresis: evaluation of assay performance and quality assurance over a 10-year period in the routine arena.

The performance of high-resolution CZE for determination of carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT) in human serum based on internal and external quality data gathered over a 10-year period is reported. The assay comprises mixing of serum with a Fe(III) ion-containing solution prior to analysis of the iron saturated mixture in a dynamically double-coated capillary using a commercial buffer at alkaline pH. CDT values obtained with a human serum of a healthy individual and commercial quality control sera are shown to vary less than 10%. Values of a control from a specific lot were found to slowly decrease as function of time (less than 10% per year). Furthermore, due to unknown reasons, gradual changes in the monitored pattern around pentasialo-transferrin were detected, which limit the use of commercial control sera of the same lot to less than 2 years. Analysis of external quality control sera revealed correct classification of the samples over the entire 10-year period. Data obtained compare well with those of HPLC and CZE assays of other laboratories. The data gathered over a 10-year period demonstrate the robustness of the high-resolution CZE assay. This is the first account of a CZE-based CDT assay with complete internal and external quality assessment over an extended time period.

Feeding mastitis milk to organic dairy calves: effect on health and performance during suckling and on udder health at first calving

BackgroundInfection pathways of S. aureus udder infections in heifers are still not well understood. One hypothesis is that calves become infected with S. aureus via feeding mastitis milk. Especially on small-scale farms, pasteurisers are not economic. The purpose of this randomised comparative study was to investigate the influence of feeding milk containing S. aureus genotype B (SAGTB) on the health and development of calves and udder health of the respective heifers. Additionally, a method reducing the bacterial load to obtain safer feeding milk was tested. Thirty-four calves were fed mastitis milk from cows with subclinical SAGTB mastitis. One group was fed untreated milk (UMG). For the other group, milk was thermised at 61°C for one minute (heat treated milk group¿=¿HMG). After weaning, calves were followed up until first calving. A milk sample of these heifers was taken at first milking to compare udder health of both groups.ResultsThermisation of milk led to an effective reduction of S. aureus in the feeding milk. 78% of the analysed pools were free of S. aureus, a reduction of at least one log was obtained in the other pools.Quarter milk samples revealed that two heifers had a S. aureus intramammary infection, but caused by a genotype different from genotype B.During the suckling period, the UMG had a significantly higher incidence rate of 1.09 diarrhoea cases per 100 calf days at risk compared to 0.26 cases per 100 calf days in the HMG (p¿<¿0.05).ConclusionsUnder the conditions of this study, no effects of feeding milk containing SAGTB on udder health after first calving were observed. But a power analysis indicated that the sample size in the current setup is insufficient to allow for assessment on mastitis risk after SAGTB exposition, as a minimal number of 4 calves infected (vs. 0 in the HMG) would have shown significant effects. High bacterial load, however, was associated with an increased incidence rate of diarrhoea. Thus, thermisation as a minimal preventive measure before feeding mastitis milk to calves might be beneficial for maintaining calf health.

A stratigraphic framework for abrupt climatic changes during the Last Glacial period based on three synchronized Greenland ice-core records: refining and extending the INTIMATE event stratigraphy

Due to their outstanding resolution and well-constrained chronologies, Greenland ice-core records provide a master record of past climatic changes throughout the Last Interglacial–Glacial cycle in the North Atlantic region. As part of the INTIMATE (INTegration of Ice-core, MArine and TErrestrial records) project, protocols have been proposed to ensure consistent and robust correlation between different records of past climate. A key element of these protocols has been the formal definition and ordinal numbering of the sequence of Greenland Stadials (GS) and Greenland Interstadials (GI) within the most recent glacial period. The GS and GI periods are the Greenland expressions of the characteristic Dansgaard–Oeschger events that represent cold and warm phases of the North Atlantic region, respectively. We present here a more detailed and extended GS/GI template for the whole of the Last Glacial period. It is based on a synchronization of the NGRIP, GRIP, and GISP2 ice-core records that allows the parallel analysis of all three records on a common time scale. The boundaries of the GS and GI periods are defined based on a combination of stable-oxygen isotope ratios of the ice (δ18O, reflecting mainly local temperature) and calcium ion concentrations (reflecting mainly atmospheric dust loading) measured in the ice. The data not only resolve the well-known sequence of Dansgaard–Oeschger events that were first defined and numbered in the ice-core records more than two decades ago, but also better resolve a number of short-lived climatic oscillations, some defined here for the first time. Using this revised scheme, we propose a consistent approach for discriminating and naming all the significant abrupt climatic events of the Last Glacial period that are represented in the Greenland ice records. The final product constitutes an extended and better resolved Greenland stratotype sequence, against which other proxy records can be compared and correlated. It also provides a more secure basis for investigating the dynamics and fundamental causes of these climatic perturbations.

Stratification of high-risk prostate cancer into prognostic categories: a European multi-institutional study

BACKGROUND High-risk prostate cancer (PCa) is an extremely heterogeneous disease. A clear definition of prognostic subgroups is mandatory. OBJECTIVE To develop a pretreatment prognostic model for PCa-specific survival (PCSS) in high-risk PCa based on combinations of unfavorable risk factors. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We conducted a retrospective multicenter cohort study including 1360 consecutive patients with high-risk PCa treated at eight European high-volume centers. INTERVENTION Retropubic radical prostatectomy with pelvic lymphadenectomy. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Two Cox multivariable regression models were constructed to predict PCSS as a function of dichotomization of clinical stage (< cT3 vs cT3-4), Gleason score (GS) (2-7 vs 8-10), and prostate-specific antigen (PSA; ≤ 20 ng/ml vs > 20 ng/ml). The first "extended" model includes all seven possible combinations; the second "simplified" model includes three subgroups: a good prognosis subgroup (one single high-risk factor); an intermediate prognosis subgroup (PSA >20 ng/ml and stage cT3-4); and a poor prognosis subgroup (GS 8-10 in combination with at least one other high-risk factor). The predictive accuracy of the models was summarized and compared. Survival estimates and clinical and pathologic outcomes were compared between the three subgroups. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS The simplified model yielded an R(2) of 33% with a 5-yr area under the curve (AUC) of 0.70 with no significant loss of predictive accuracy compared with the extended model (R(2): 34%; AUC: 0.71). The 5- and 10-yr PCSS rates were 98.7% and 95.4%, 96.5% and 88.3%, 88.8% and 79.7%, for the good, intermediate, and poor prognosis subgroups, respectively (p = 0.0003). Overall survival, clinical progression-free survival, and histopathologic outcomes significantly worsened in a stepwise fashion from the good to the poor prognosis subgroups. Limitations of the study are the retrospective design and the long study period. CONCLUSIONS This study presents an intuitive and easy-to-use stratification of high-risk PCa into three prognostic subgroups. The model is useful for counseling and decision making in the pretreatment setting.

Integration through Land Improvment – Internal Colonization in Switzerland During the First Part of the 20th Century

Internal colonization in Switzerland is often seen in connection with the battle for cultivation in the Second World War, but the history of internal colonization in Switzerland is more complex. The food crisis in the First World War formed the horizon of experience for various actors from industry, consumer protection, the urban population and agriculture to start considering practical strategies for managing agricultural production. In this way, traditional spaces, such as rural and urban areas and economic roles, such as food producer, consumer and trader, overlapped and were newly conceived to some extent: people started thinking about utopias and how a modern society could be designed to be harmonious and resistant to crisis. The aim of this article is to trace some of the key points in this process for the interwar years in neutral Switzerland. In the process, the focus must be on the context of people’s mentalities in the past, although the relationships between the actors of internal colonization and the state also need to be considered. Internal colonization in Switzerland in the twentieth century can be understood as an open process. In principle, the project was driven by private actors, but in times of crisis, the project was claimed by the state as a possible tool for social and economic intervention. In addition, as a result of the planned dissolution of urban and rural spaces, it will be shown that modern societies in the interwar period were on an existential search to overcome the problems of the modern age. Internal colonization can therefore be seen as an attempt to find a third way between a world characterized by an agrarian society and a modern industrial nation.

German Total Ankle Replacement Register of the German Foot and Ankle Society (D. A. F.) - presentation of design and reliability of the data as well as first results

INTRODUCTION Even though arthroplasty of the ankle joint is considered to be an established procedure, only about 1,300 endoprostheses are implanted in Germany annually. Arthrodeses of the ankle joint are performed almost three times more often. This may be due to the availability of the procedure - more than twice as many providers perform arthrodesis - as well as the postulated high frequency of revision procedures of arthroplasties in the literature. In those publications, however, there is often no clear differentiation between revision surgery with exchange of components, subsequent interventions due to complications and subsequent surgery not associated with complications. The German Orthopaedic Foot and Ankle Association's (D. A. F.) registry for total ankle replacement collects data pertaining to perioperative complications as well as cause, nature and extent of the subsequent interventions, and postoperative patient satisfaction. MATERIAL AND METHODS The D. A. F.'s total ankle replacement register is a nation-wide, voluntary registry. After giving written informed consent, the patients can be added to the database by participating providers. Data are collected during hospital stay for surgical treatment, during routine follow-up inspections and in the context of revision surgery. The information can be submitted in paper-based or online formats. The survey instruments are available as minimum data sets or scientific questionnaires which include patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs). The pseudonymous clinical data are collected and evaluated at the Institute for Evaluative Research in Medicine, University of Bern/Switzerland (IEFM). The patient-related data remain on the register's module server in North Rhine-Westphalia, Germany. The registry's methodology as well as the results of the revisions and patient satisfaction for 115 patients with a two year follow-up period are presented. Statistical analyses are performed with SAS™ (Version 9.4, SAS Institute, Inc., Cary, NC, USA). RESULTS About 2½ years after the register was launched there are 621 datasets on primary implantations, 1,427 on follow-ups and 121 records on re-operation available. 49 % of the patients received their implants due to post-traumatic osteoarthritis, 27 % because of a primary osteoarthritis and 15 % of patients suffered from a rheumatic disease. More than 90 % of the primary interventions proceeded without complications. Subsequent interventions were recorded for 84 patients, which corresponds to a rate of 13.5 % with respect to the primary implantations. It should be noted that these secondary procedures also include two-stage procedures not due to a complication. "True revisions" are interventions with exchange of components due to mechanical complications and/or infection and were present in 7.6 % of patients. 415 of the patients commented on their satisfaction with the operative result during the last follow-up: 89.9 % of patients evaluate their outcome as excellent or good, 9.4 % as moderate and only 0.7 % (3 patients) as poor. In these three cases a component loosening or symptomatic USG osteoarthritis was present. Two-year follow-up data using the American Orthopedic Foot and Ankle Society Ankle and Hindfoot Scale (AOFAS-AHS) are already available for 115 patients. The median AOFAS-AHS score increased from 33 points preoperatively to more than 80 points three to six months postoperatively. This increase remained nearly constant over the entire two-year follow-up period. CONCLUSION Covering less than 10 % of the approximately 240 providers in Germany and approximately 12 % of the annually implanted total ankle-replacements, the D. A. F.-register is still far from being seen as a national registry. Nevertheless, geographical coverage and inclusion of "high-" (more than 100 total ankle replacements a year) and "low-volume surgeons" (less than 5 total ankle replacements a year) make the register representative for Germany. The registry data show that the number of subsequent interventions and in particular the "true revision" procedures are markedly lower than the 20 % often postulated in the literature. In addition, a high level of patient satisfaction over the short and medium term is recorded. From the perspective of the authors, these results indicate that total ankle arthroplasty - given a correct indication and appropriate selection of patients - is not inferior to an ankle arthrodesis concerning patients' satisfaction and function. First valid survival rates can be expected about 10 years after the register's start.

Milk production during the colostral period is not related to the later lactational performance in dairy cows

In dairy cows, milk yield increases rapidly after parturition until a peak at around wk 6 of lactation. However, the description of the shape of the lactation curve is commonly based on weekly average milk yields. For a more detailed analysis of the milk production curve from the very beginning of lactation including the colostral period and the effect of colostrum yield on further lactational performance, the first 10 milkings after parturition, daily milk yields from d 1 to 28 of lactation, and the cumulative milk production on d 100 to 305 of lactation were investigated in 17 primiparous and 39 multiparous cows milked twice daily. Milk yield at the first milking after parturition (colostrum) ranged from 1.3 to 20.7kg (Δ=19.4kg) in multiparous and from 1.8 to 10.9kg in primiparous animals (Δ=9.1kg). At the tenth milking, milk production ranged from 9.2 to 21.5kg (Δ=12.3kg) in multiparous and from 7.0 to 15.2kg (Δ=8.2kg) in primiparous animals. Immediately after parturition, daily milk production increased rapidly, but after approximately 1wk in lactation, the slope of the daily milk production curve flattened and continued more linear. A nonlinear regression equation was used to determine this timely change, which occurred earlier in primiparous (d 6.9±0.3) than in multiparous cows (d 8.2±0.2). The correlation between the amount of first colostrum and milk production during further lactation decreased already from 0.47 on d 5 to 0.32 on d 14. In multiparous cows, the correlation between total milk production of the previous 305d standard lactation and the amount of first colostrum was not significant (correlation=0.29), whereas the correlation with the daily production increased from 0.45 on d 5 to 0.69 on d 14. However, in primiparous animals, correlations between first-colostrum yield and daily milk yields up to d 28 of lactation were not significant, possibly due to the smaller sample size compared with multiparous animals. First-colostrum yield and cumulative milk production of 100, 200, and 305 lactation days were not significantly correlated in multiparous and primiparous cows. In conclusion, the milk production during the first few milkings is widely independent from the overall production level of a cow. Potentially, genetic selection toward lower milk yield during the very first days after parturition at a simultaneously high lactational performance may be a tool to ensure sufficient colostrum quality and to reduce the metabolic load around parturition.

Safety and efficacy of imatinib in CML over a period of 10 years: data from the randomized CML-study IV.

Tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKI) have changed the natural course of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML). With the advent of second-generation TKI safety and efficacy issues have gained interest. The randomized CML - Study IV was used for a long-term evaluation of imatinib (IM). 1503 patients have received IM, 1379 IM monotherapy. After a median observation of 7.1 years, 965 patients (64%) still received IM. At 10 years, progression-free survival was 82%, overall survival 84%, 59% achieved MR(5), 72% MR(4.5), 81% MR(4), 89% major molecular remission and 92% MR(2) (molecular equivalent to complete cytogenetic remission). All response levels were reached faster with IM800 mg except MR(5). Eight-year probabilities of adverse drug reactions (ADR) were 76%, of grades 3-4 22%, of non-hematologic 73%, and of hematologic 28%. More ADR were observed with IM800 mg and IM400 mg plus interferon α (IFN). Most patients had their first ADR early with decreasing frequency later on. No new late toxicity was observed. ADR to IM are frequent, but mostly mild and manageable, also with IM 800 mg and IM 400 mg+IFN. The deep molecular response rates indicate that most patients are candidates for IM discontinuation. After 10 years, IM continues to be an excellent initial choice for most patients with CML.Leukemia advance online publication, 13 March 2015; doi:10.1038/leu.2015.36.

«The Broken Years»: War Crimes and the laws of war under the impact of the First World War

When the First World War began, the international co-operation of legal academics, which had been a characteristic of the late 19th and early 20th century came to a halt. In the context of the atrocities in Belgium as well as Serbia academics on both sides became involved in the propaganda campaigns of the belligerents on both sides. Not many of them were able to divest themselves. The presentation will claim that as a consequence the time between the First World War and the beginning of the Second can be characterized as «Broken Years» not only in regard to war veterans (Gammage 1974), but also in regard to the international academic discourse on issues of war crimes and the laws of war. This shall be substantiated by a look at academic activities in the interwar period within the International Law Association, the Institut de Droit International, the Interparliamentary Union, the Association Internationale de Droit Pénal and the Internationale Kriminalistische Vereinigung.