Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium

The Earth’s climate system is driven by a complex interplay of internal chaotic dynamics and natural and anthropogenic external forcing. Recent instrumental data have shown a remarkable degree of asynchronicity between Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere temperature fluctuations, thereby questioning the relative importance of internal versus external drivers of past as well as future climate variability1, 2, 3. However, large-scale temperature reconstructions for the past millennium have focused on the Northern Hemisphere4, 5, limiting empirical assessments of inter-hemispheric variability on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Here, we introduce a new millennial ensemble reconstruction of annually resolved temperature variations for the Southern Hemisphere based on an unprecedented network of terrestrial and oceanic palaeoclimate proxy records. In conjunction with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction ensemble5, this record reveals an extended cold period (1594–1677) in both hemispheres but no globally coherent warm phase during the pre-industrial (1000–1850) era. The current (post-1974) warm phase is the only period of the past millennium where both hemispheres are likely to have experienced contemporaneous warm extremes. Our analysis of inter-hemispheric temperature variability in an ensemble of climate model simulations for the past millennium suggests that models tend to overemphasize Northern Hemisphere–Southern Hemisphere synchronicity by underestimating the role of internal ocean–atmosphere dynamics, particularly in the ocean-dominated Southern Hemisphere. Our results imply that climate system predictability on decadal to century timescales may be lower than expected based on assessments of external climate forcing and Northern Hemisphere temperature variations5, 6 alone.

Is vaginal hyaluronic acid as effective as vaginal estriol for vaginal dryness relief?

In a multicenter, randomized, controlled, open-label, parallel- group trial hyaluronic acid vaginal gel (Hyalofemme) was compared to estriol vaginal cream (Ovestin) in women with vaginal dryness due to various causes. A total of 144 supposedly postmenopausal women below age 70 years were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to either receive hyaluronic acid vaginal gel (5 g per application) or estriol vaginal cream (0.5 g cream per application = 0.5 mg estriol) every 3 days for a total of ten applications, respectively. Exclusion criteria included vaginal infections, conventional contraindications to estrogens, use of vaginal products other than the investigational compounds, being unmarried, pregnant, or breastfeeding. The aim of the study was to test for non-inferiority of hyaluronic acid vaginal gel compared to estriol vaginal cream. The primary efficacy end point was the percentage (%) improvement in vaginal dryness, with the secondary end points being the percentage (%) improvements in vaginal itching, burning, and dyspareunia. Efficacy was assessed by using a visual analog scale (VAS) (0-10; 0 = absent, 10 = intolerable) at baseline (V0), during telephone contact after the third administration (V1), and at the final visit after the tenth administration (V2). Safety parameters included vaginal pH, endometrial thickness, and a vaginal smear for vaginal microecosystem assessment. Adverse events were recorded according to international guidelines. 133 women completed the study. At baseline, participants' characteristics did not differ significantly. Mean age was 54 years, time since menopause was 5 years on average, and cause of menopause was mostly natural. However, mean menstrual cycle days were also reported, although according to inclusion criteria only postmenopausal women were eligible for the study. At V1, an improvement in vaginal dryness was reported by about 49 % of women using hyaluronic acid vaginal gel, and by 53 % of women using estriol vaginal cream (p = 0.31). At V2, the percentage improvement rates were 84 and 89 % (p = 0.13), respectively. Improvement rates for vaginal itching, burning, and dyspareunia at V2 were about 86, 85, and 57 % for hyaluronic acid vaginal gel, and 82, 87, and 62 % for estriol vaginal cream (p[0.05), respectively. After treatment, vaginal pH was significantly lower in estriol-treated women compared to those having received hyaluronic acid. Endometrial thickness did not differ between groups. In the majority of women, the vaginal microenvironment remained unaffected by treatment. However, the proportion of women whose abnormal vaginal microecological results became normal was higher in women using estriol vaginal cream. Adverse events (suspected to be) related to the investigational compounds were minor and included vaginal infection and genital itching. The authors concluded that hyaluronic acid vaginal gel was not inferior to estriol vaginal cream in women presenting with vaginal dryness. They suggest using hyaluronic acid vaginal gel not only as an alternative treatment to vaginal estrogens, but also to consider its general use in women presenting with vaginal dryness of any cause.

Dependence of Eemian Greenland temperature reconstructions on the ice sheet topography

The influence of a reduced Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) on Greenland's surface climate during the Eemian interglacial is studied using a set of simulations with different GrIS realizations performed with a comprehensive climate model. We find a distinct impact of changes in the GrIS topography on Greenland's surface air temperatures (SAT) even when correcting for changes in surface elevation, which influences SAT through the lapse rate effect. The resulting lapse-rate-corrected SAT anomalies are thermodynamically driven by changes in the local surface energy balance rather than dynamically caused through anomalous advection of warm/cold air masses. The large-scale circulation is indeed very stable among all sensitivity experiments and the Northern Hemisphere (NH) flow pattern does not depend on Greenland's topography in the Eemian. In contrast, Greenland's surface energy balance is clearly influenced by changes in the GrIS topography and this impact is seasonally diverse. In winter, the variable reacting strongest to changes in the topography is the sensible heat flux (SHF). The reason is its dependence on surface winds, which themselves are controlled to a large extent by the shape of the GrIS. Hence, regions where a receding GrIS causes higher surface wind velocities also experience anomalous warming through SHF. Vice-versa, regions that become flat and ice-free are characterized by low wind speeds, low SHF, and anomalous low winter temperatures. In summer, we find surface warming induced by a decrease in surface albedo in deglaciated areas and regions which experience surface melting. The Eemian temperature records derived from Greenland proxies, thus, likely include a temperature signal arising from changes in the GrIS topography. For the Eemian ice found in the NEEM core, our model suggests that up to 3.1 °C of the annual mean Eemian warming can be attributed to these topography-related processes and hence is not necessarily linked to large-scale climate variations.

Temperature and precipitation signal in two Alpine ice cores over the period 1961-2001

Water stable isotope ratios and net snow accumulation in ice cores are commonly interpreted as temperature or precipitation proxies. However, only in a few cases has a direct calibration with instrumental data been attempted. In this study we took advantage of the dense network of observations in the European Alpine region to rigorously test the relationship of the annual and seasonal resolved proxy data from two highly resolved ice cores with local temperature and precipitation. We focused on the time period 1961–2001 with the highest amount and quality of meteorological data and the minimal uncertainty in ice core dating (±1 year). The two ice cores were retrieved from the Fiescherhorn glacier (northern Alps, 3900 m a.s.l.), and Grenzgletscher (southern Alps, 4200 m a.s.l.). A parallel core from the Fiescherhorn glacier allowed assessing the reproducibility of the ice core proxy data. Due to the orographic barrier, the two flanks of the Alpine chain are affected by distinct patterns of precipitation. The different location of the two glaciers therefore offers a unique opportunity to test whether such a specific setting is reflected in the proxy data. On a seasonal scale a high fraction of δ18O variability was explained by the seasonal cycle of temperature (~60% for the ice cores, ~70% for the nearby stations of the Global Network of Isotopes in Precipitation – GNIP). When the seasonality is removed, the correlations decrease for all sites, indicating that factors other than temperature such as changing moisture sources and/or precipitation regimes affect the isotopic signal on this timescale. Post-depositional phenomena may additionally modify the ice core data. On an annual scale, the δ18O/temperature relationship was significant at the Fiescherhorn, whereas for Grenzgletscher this was the case only when weighting the temperature with precipitation. In both cases the fraction of interannual temperature variability explained was ~20%, comparable to the values obtained from the GNIP stations data. Consistently with previous studies, we found an altitude effect for the δ18O of −0.17‰/100 m for an extended elevation range combining data of the two ice core sites and four GNIP stations. Significant correlations between net accumulation and precipitation were observed for Grenzgletscher during the entire period of investigation, whereas for Fiescherhorn this was the case only for the less recent period (1961–1977). Local phenomena, probably related to wind, seem to partly disturb the Fiescherhorn accumulation record. Spatial correlation analysis shows the two glaciers to be influenced by different precipitation regimes, with the Grenzgletscher reflecting the characteristic precipitation regime south of the Alps and the Fiescherhorn accumulation showing a pattern more closely linked to northern Alpine stations.

A framework for benchmarking of homogenisation algorithm performance on the global scale

The International Surface Temperature Initiative (ISTI) is striving towards substantively improving our ability to robustly understand historical land surface air temperature change at all scales. A key recently completed first step has been collating all available records into a comprehensive open access, traceable and version-controlled databank. The crucial next step is to maximise the value of the collated data through a robust international framework of benchmarking and assessment for product intercomparison and uncertainty estimation. We focus on uncertainties arising from the presence of inhomogeneities in monthly mean land surface temperature data and the varied methodological choices made by various groups in building homogeneous temperature products. The central facet of the benchmarking process is the creation of global-scale synthetic analogues to the real-world database where both the "true" series and inhomogeneities are known (a luxury the real-world data do not afford us). Hence, algorithmic strengths and weaknesses can be meaningfully quantified and conditional inferences made about the real-world climate system. Here we discuss the necessary framework for developing an international homogenisation benchmarking system on the global scale for monthly mean temperatures. The value of this framework is critically dependent upon the number of groups taking part and so we strongly advocate involvement in the benchmarking exercise from as many data analyst groups as possible to make the best use of this substantial effort.

Microfabric memory of vein quartz for strain localization in detachment faults: A case study on the Simplon fault zone

This manuscript deals with the adaptation of quartz-microfabrics to changing physical deformation conditions, and discusses their preservation potential during subsequent retrograde deformation. Using microstructural analysis, a sequence of recrystallization processes in quartz, ranging from Grain-Boundary Migration Recrystallization (GBM) over Subgrain-Rotation Recrystallization (SGR) to Bulging Nucleation (BLG) is detected for the Simplon fault zone (SFZ) from the low strain rim towards the internal high strain part of the large-scale shear zone. Based on: (i) the retrograde cooling path; (ii) estimates of deformation temperatures; and (iii) spatial variation of dynamic recrystallization processes and different microstructural characteristics, continuous strain localization with decreasing temperature is inferred. In contrast to the recrystallization microstructures, crystallographic preferred orientations (CPO) have a longer memory. CPO patterns indicative of prism and rhomb glide systems in mylonitic quartz veins, overprinted at low temperatures (�400 �C), suggest inheritance of a high-temperature deformation. In this way, microstructural, textural and geochemical analyses provide information for several million years of the deformation history. The reasons for such incomplete resetting of the rock texture is that strain localization is caused by change in effective viscosity contrasts related to temporal large- and small-scale temperature changes during the evolution of such a long-lived shear zone. The spatially resolved, quantitative investigation of quartz microfabrics and associated recrystallization processes therefore provide great potential for an improved understanding of the geodynamics of large-scale shear zones.

Constraints on the effective fluid theory of stationary branes

We develop further the effective fluid theory of stationary branes. This formalism applies to stationary blackfolds as well as to other equilibrium brane systems at finite temperature. The effective theory is described by a Lagrangian containing the information about the elastic dynamics of the brane embedding as well as the hydrodynamics of the effective fluid living on the brane. The Lagrangian is corrected order-by-order in a derivative expansion, where we take into account the dipole moment of the brane which encompasses finite-thickness corrections, including transverse spin. We describe how to extract the thermodynamics from the Lagrangian and we obtain constraints on the higher-derivative terms with one and two derivatives. These constraints follow by comparing the brane thermodynamics with the conserved currents associated with background Killing vector fields. In particular, we fix uniquely the one- and two-derivative terms describing the coupling of the transverse spin to the background space-time. Finally, we apply our formalism to two blackfold examples, the black tori and charged black rings and compare the latter to a numerically generated solution.

New Constraints on Dark Matter Effective Theories from Standard Model Loops

We consider an effective field theory for a gauge singlet Dirac dark matter particle interacting with the standard model fields via effective operators suppressed by the scale Λ≳1  TeV. We perform a systematic analysis of the leading loop contributions to spin-independent Dirac dark matter–nucleon scattering using renormalization group evolution between Λ and the low-energy scale probed by direct detection experiments. We find that electroweak interactions induce operator mixings such that operators that are naively velocity suppressed and spin dependent can actually contribute to spin-independent scattering. This allows us to put novel constraints on Wilson coefficients that were so far poorly bounded by direct detection. Constraints from current searches are already significantly stronger than LHC bounds, and will improve in the near future. Interestingly, the loop contribution we find is isospin violating even if the underlying theory is isospin conserving.

Chiral-Scale Perturbation Theory About an Infrared Fixed Point

We review the failure of lowest order chiral SU(3)L ×SU(3)R perturbation theory χPT3 to account for amplitudes involving the f0(500) resonance and O(mK) extrapolations in momenta. We summarize our proposal to replace χPT3 with a new effective theory χPTσ based on a low-energy expansion about an infrared fixed point in 3-flavour QCD. At the fixed point, the quark condensate ⟨q̅q⟩vac ≠ 0 induces nine Nambu-Goldstone bosons: π,K,η and a QCD dilaton σ which we identify with the f0(500) resonance. We discuss the construction of the χPTσ Lagrangian and its implications for meson phenomenology at low-energies. Our main results include a simple explanation for the ΔI = 1/2 rule in K-decays and an estimate for the Drell-Yan ratio in the infrared limit.

New insights into the reconstructed temperature in Portugal over the last 400 years

The consistency of an existing reconstructed annual (December–November) temperature series for the Lisbon region (Portugal) from 1600 onwards, based on a European-wide reconstruction, with (1) five local borehole temperature–depth profiles; (2) synthetic temperature– depth profiles, generated from both reconstructed temperatures and two regional paleoclimate simulations in Portugal; (3) instrumental data sources over the twentieth century; and (4) temperature indices from documentary sources during the late Maunder Minimum (1675–1715) is assessed. The low-frequency variability in the reconstructed temperature in Portugal is not entirely consistent with local borehole temperature–depth profiles and with the simulated response of temperature in two regional paleoclimate simulations driven by reconstructions of various climate forcings. Therefore, the existing reconstructed series is calibrated by adjusting its low-frequency variability to the simulations (first-stage adjustment). The annual reconstructed series is then calibrated in its location and scale parameters, using the instrumental series and a linear regression between them (second-stage adjustment). This calibrated series shows clear footprints of the Maunder and Dalton minima, commonly related to changes in solar activity and explosive volcanic eruptions, and a strong recent-past warming, commonly related to human-driven forcing. Lastly, it is also in overall agreement with annual temperature indices over the late Maunder Minimum in Portugal. The series resulting from this post-reconstruction adjustment can be of foremost relevance to improve the current understanding of the driving mechanisms of climate variability in Portugal.

Towards a spatial understanding of trade-offs in sustainable development: A meso-scale analysis of the nexus between land use, poverty, and environment in the Lao PDR

In land systems, equitably managing trade-offs between planetary boundaries and human development needs represents a grand challenge in sustainability oriented initiatives. Informing such initiatives requires knowledge about the nexus between land use, poverty, and environment. This paper presents results from Lao PDR, where we combined nationwide spatial data on land use types and the environmental state of landscapes with village-level poverty indicators. Our analysis reveals two general but contrasting trends. First, landscapes with paddy or permanent agriculture allow a greater number of people to live in less poverty but come at the price of a decrease in natural vegetation cover. Second, people practising extensive swidden agriculture and living in intact environments are often better off than people in degraded paddy or permanent agriculture. As poverty rates within different landscape types vary more than between landscape types, we cannot stipulate a land use–poverty–environment nexus. However, the distinct spatial patterns or configurations of these rates point to other important factors at play. Drawing on ethnicity as a proximate factor for endogenous development potentials and accessibility as a proximate factor for external influences, we further explore these linkages. Ethnicity is strongly related to poverty in all land use types almost independently of accessibility, implying that social distance outweighs geographic or physical distance. In turn, accessibility, almost a precondition for poverty alleviation, is mainly beneficial to ethnic majority groups and people living in paddy or permanent agriculture. These groups are able to translate improved accessibility into poverty alleviation. Our results show that the concurrence of external influences with local—highly contextual—development potentials is key to shaping outcomes of the land use–poverty–environment nexus. By addressing such leverage points, these findings help guide more effective development interventions. At the same time, they point to the need in land change science to better integrate the understanding of place-based land indicators with process-based drivers of land use change.

Critical point and scale setting in SU(3) plasma: An update

We explore a method developed in statistical physics which has been argued to have exponentially small finite-volume effects, in order to determine the critical temperature Tc of pure SU(3) gauge theory close to the continuum limit. The method allows us to estimate the critical coupling βc of the Wilson action for temporal extents up to Nτ∼20 with ≲0.1% uncertainties. Making use of the scale setting parameters r0 and t0−−√ in the same range of β-values, these results lead to the independent continuum extrapolations Tcr0=0.7457(45) and Tct0−−√=0.2489(14), with the latter originating from a more convincing fit. Inserting a conversion of r0 from literature (unfortunately with much larger errors) yields Tc/ΛMS¯¯¯¯¯=1.24(10).

Comparison of co-located independent ground-based middle atmospheric wind and temperature measurements with numerical weather prediction models

High-resolution, ground-based and independent observations including co-located wind radiometer, lidar stations, and infrasound instruments are used to evaluate the accuracy of general circulation models and data-constrained assimilation systems in the middle atmosphere at northern hemisphere midlatitudes. Systematic comparisons between observations, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses including the recent Integrated Forecast System cycles 38r1 and 38r2, the NASA’s Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalyses, and the free-running climate Max Planck Institute–Earth System Model–Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR) are carried out in both temporal and spectral dom ains. We find that ECMWF and MERRA are broadly consistent with lidar and wind radiometer measurements up to ~40 km. For both temperature and horizontal wind components, deviations increase with altitude as the assimilated observations become sparser. Between 40 and 60 km altitude, the standard deviation of the mean difference exceeds 5 K for the temperature and 20 m/s for the zonal wind. The largest deviations are observed in winter when the variability from large-scale planetary waves dominates. Between lidar data and MPI-ESM-LR, there is an overall agreement in spectral amplitude down to 15–20 days. At shorter time scales, the variability is lacking in the model by ~10 dB. Infrasound observations indicate a general good agreement with ECWMF wind and temperature products. As such, this study demonstrates the potential of the infrastructure of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research Infrastructure in Europe project that integrates various measurements and provides a quantitative understanding of stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling for numerical weather prediction applications.

From quantum to classical dynamics: The relativistic O ( N ) model in the framework of the real-time functional renormalization group

We investigate the transition from unitary to dissipative dynamics in the relativistic O(N) vector model with the λ(φ2)2 interaction using the nonperturbative functional renormalization group in the real-time formalism. In thermal equilibrium, the theory is characterized by two scales, the interaction range for coherent scattering of particles and the mean free path determined by the rate of incoherent collisions with excitations in the thermal medium. Their competition determines the renormalization group flow and the effective dynamics of the model. Here we quantify the dynamic properties of the model in terms of the scale-dependent dynamic critical exponent z in the limit of large temperatures and in 2≤d≤4 spatial dimensions. We contrast our results to the behavior expected at vanishing temperature and address the question of the appropriate dynamic universality class for the given microscopic theory.

Effect of temperature and diet on wound healing in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.).

Compromised skin integrity of farmed Atlantic salmon, commonly occurring under low temperature and stressful conditions, has major impacts on animal welfare and economic productivity. Even fish with minimal scale loss and minor wounds can suffer from secondary infections, causing downgrading and mortalities. Wound healing is a complex process, where water temperature and nutrition play key roles. In this study, Atlantic salmon (260 g) were held at different water temperatures (4 or 12 °C) and fed three different diets for 10 weeks, before artificial wounds were inflicted and the wound healing process monitored for 2 weeks. The fish were fed either a control diet, a diet supplemented with zinc (Zn) or a diet containing a combination of functional ingredients in addition to Zn. The effect of diet was assessed through subjective and quantitative skin histology and the transcription of skin-associated chemokines. Histology confirmed that wound healing was faster at 12 °C. The epidermis was more organised, and image analyses of digitised skin slides showed that fish fed diets with added Zn had a significantly larger area of the epidermis covered by mucous cells in the deeper layers after 2 weeks, representing more advanced healing progression. Constitutive levels of the newly described chemokines, herein named CK 11A, B and C, confirmed their preferential expression in skin compared to other tissues. Contrasting modulation profiles at 4 and 12 °C were seen for all three chemokines during the wound healing time course, while the Zn-supplemented diets significantly increased the expression of CK 11A and B during the first 24 h of the healing phase.