Age modeling of young non-varved lake sediments: methods and limits. Examples from two lakes in Central Chile

High-resolution and highly precise age models for recent lake sediments (last 100–150 years) are essential for quantitative paleoclimate research. These are particularly important for sedimentological and geochemical proxies, where transfer functions cannot be established and calibration must be based upon the relation of sedimentary records to instrumental data. High-precision dating for the calibration period is most critical as it determines directly the quality of the calibration statistics. Here, as an example, we compare radionuclide age models obtained on two high-elevation glacial lakes in the Central Chilean Andes (Laguna Negra: 33°38′S/70°08′W, 2,680 m a.s.l. and Laguna El Ocho: 34°02′S/70°19′W, 3,250 m a.s.l.). We show the different numerical models that produce accurate age-depth chronologies based on 210Pb profiles, and we explain how to obtain reduced age-error bars at the bottom part of the profiles, i.e., typically around the end of the 19th century. In order to constrain the age models, we propose a method with five steps: (i) sampling at irregularly-spaced intervals for 226Ra, 210Pb and 137Cs depending on the stratigraphy and microfacies, (ii) a systematic comparison of numerical models for the calculation of 210Pb-based age models: constant flux constant sedimentation (CFCS), constant initial concentration (CIC), constant rate of supply (CRS) and sediment isotope tomography (SIT), (iii) numerical constraining of the CRS and SIT models with the 137Cs chronomarker of AD 1964 and, (iv) step-wise cross-validation with independent diagnostic environmental stratigraphic markers of known age (e.g., volcanic ash layer, historical flood and earthquakes). In both examples, we also use airborne pollutants such as spheroidal carbonaceous particles (reflecting the history of fossil fuel emissions), excess atmospheric Cu deposition (reflecting the production history of a large local Cu mine), and turbidites related to historical earthquakes. Our results show that the SIT model constrained with the 137Cs AD 1964 peak performs best over the entire chronological profile (last 100–150 years) and yields the smallest standard deviations for the sediment ages. Such precision is critical for the calibration statistics, and ultimately, for the quality of the quantitative paleoclimate reconstruction. The systematic comparison of CRS and SIT models also helps to validate the robustness of the chronologies in different sections of the profile. Although surprisingly poorly known and under-explored in paleolimnological research, the SIT model has a great potential in paleoclimatological reconstructions based on lake sediments

Intelligence is related to specific processes in visual change detection: Fixed-links modeling of hit rate and reaction time

By means of fixed-links modeling, the present study identified different processes of visual short-term memory (VSTM) functioning and investigated how these processes are related to intelligence. We conducted an experiment where the participants were presented with a color change detection task. Task complexity was manipulated through varying the number of presented stimuli (set size). We collected hit rate and reaction time (RT) as indicators for the amount of information retained in VSTM and speed of VSTM scanning, respectively. Due to the impurity of these measures, however, the variability in hit rate and RT was assumed to consist not only of genuine variance due to individual differences in VSTM retention and VSTM scanning but also of other, non-experimental portions of variance. Therefore, we identified two qualitatively different types of components for both hit rate and RT: (1) non-experimental components representing processes that remained constant irrespective of set size and (2) experimental components reflecting processes that increased as a function of set size. For RT, intelligence was negatively associated with the non-experimental components, but was unrelated to the experimental components assumed to represent variability in VSTM scanning speed. This finding indicates that individual differences in basic processing speed, rather than in speed of VSTM scanning, differentiates between high- and low-intelligent individuals. For hit rate, the experimental component constituting individual differences in VSTM retention was positively related to intelligence. The non-experimental components of hit rate, representing variability in basal processes, however, were not associated with intelligence. By decomposing VSTM functioning into non-experimental and experimental components, significant associations with intelligence were revealed that otherwise might have been obscured.

Kinetic modeling of sodium in the lunar exosphere

Our knowledge about the lunar environment is based on a large volume of ground-based, remote, and in situ observations. These observations have been conducted at different times and sampled different pieces of such a complex system as the surface-bound exosphere of the Moon. Numerical modeling is the tool that can link results of these separate observations into a single picture. Being validated against previous measurements, models can be used for predictions and interpretation of future observations results. In this paper we present a kinetic model of the sodium exosphere of the Moon as well as results of its validation against a set of ground-based and remote observations. The unique characteristic of the model is that it takes the orbital motion of the Moon and the Earth into consideration and simulates both the exosphere as well as the sodium tail self-consistently. The extended computational domain covers the part of the Earth’s orbit at new Moon, which allows us to study the effect of Earth’s gravity on the lunar sodium tail. The model is fitted to a set of ground-based and remote observations by tuning sodium source rate as well as values of sticking, and accommodation coefficients. The best agreement of the model results with the observations is reached when all sodium atoms returning from the exosphere stick to the surface and the net sodium escape rate is about 5.3 × 1022 s−1.

The Genesis Solar Wind Concentrator: Flight and Post-Flight Conditions and Modeling of Instrumental Fractionation

The Genesis mission Solar Wind Concentrator was built to enhance fluences of solar wind by an average of 20x over the 2.3 years that the mission exposed substrates to the solar wind. The Concentrator targets survived the hard landing upon return to Earth and were used to determine the isotopic composition of solar-wind—and hence solar—oxygen and nitrogen. Here we report on the flight operation of the instrument and on simulations of its performance. Concentration and fractionation patterns obtained from simulations are given for He, Li, N, O, Ne, Mg, Si, S, and Ar in SiC targets, and are compared with measured concentrations and isotope ratios for the noble gases. Carbon is also modeled for a Si target. Predicted differences in instrumental fractionation between elements are discussed. Additionally, as the Concentrator was designed only for ions ≤22 AMU, implications of analyzing elements as heavy as argon are discussed. Post-flight simulations of instrumental fractionation as a function of radial position on the targets incorporate solar-wind velocity and angular distributions measured in flight, and predict fractionation patterns for various elements and isotopes of interest. A tighter angular distribution, mostly due to better spacecraft spin stability than assumed in pre-flight modeling, results in a steeper isotopic fractionation gradient between the center and the perimeter of the targets. Using the distribution of solar-wind velocities encountered during flight, which are higher than those used in pre-flight modeling, results in elemental abundance patterns slightly less peaked at the center. Mean fractionations trend with atomic mass, with differences relative to the measured isotopes of neon of +4.1±0.9 ‰/amu for Li, between -0.4 and +2.8 ‰/amu for C, +1.9±0.7‰/amu for N, +1.3±0.4 ‰/amu for O, -7.5±0.4 ‰/amu for Mg, -8.9±0.6 ‰/amu for Si, and -22.0±0.7 ‰/amu for S (uncertainties reflect Monte Carlo statistics). The slopes of the fractionation trends depend to first order only on the relative differential mass ratio, Δ m/ m. This article and a companion paper (Reisenfeld et al. 2012, this issue) provide post-flight information necessary for the analysis of the Genesis solar wind samples, and thus serve to complement the Space Science Review volume, The Genesis Mission (v. 105, 2003).

Modeling of ore-forming and geoenvironmental systems: Roles of fluid flow and chemical reaction processes

Ore-forming and geoenviromental systems commonly involve coupled fluid flowand chemical reaction processes. The advanced numerical methods and computational modeling have become indispensable tools for simulating such processes in recent years. This enables many hitherto unsolvable geoscience problems to be addressed using numerical methods and computational modeling approaches. For example, computational modeling has been successfully used to solve ore-forming and mine site contamination/remediation problems, in which fluid flow and geochemical processes play important roles in the controlling dynamic mechanisms. The main purpose of this paper is to present a generalized overview of: (1) the various classes and models associated with fluid flow/chemically reacting systems in order to highlight possible opportunities and developments for the future; (2) some more general issues that need attention in the development of computational models and codes for simulating ore-forming and geoenviromental systems; (3) the related progresses achieved on the geochemical modeling over the past 50 years or so; (4) the general methodology for modeling of oreforming and geoenvironmental systems; and (5) the future development directions associated with modeling of ore-forming and geoenviromental systems.

Time-Series Panel Analysis (TSPA): Multivariate Modeling of Temporal Associations in Psychotherapy Process.

Objective: Processes occurring in the course of psychotherapy are characterized by the simple fact that they unfold in time and that the multiple factors engaged in change processes vary highly between individuals (idiographic phenomena). Previous research, however, has neglected the temporal perspective by its traditional focus on static phenomena, which were mainly assessed at the group level (nomothetic phenomena). To support a temporal approach, the authors introduce time-series panel analysis (TSPA), a statistical methodology explicitly focusing on the quantification of temporal, session-to-session aspects of change in psychotherapy. TSPA-models are initially built at the level of individuals and are subsequently aggregated at the group level, thus allowing the exploration of prototypical models. Method: TSPA is based on vector auto-regression (VAR), an extension of univariate auto-regression models to multivariate time-series data. The application of TSPA is demonstrated in a sample of 87 outpatient psychotherapy patients who were monitored by postsession questionnaires. Prototypical mechanisms of change were derived from the aggregation of individual multivariate models of psychotherapy process. In a 2nd step, the associations between mechanisms of change (TSPA) and pre- to postsymptom change were explored. Results: TSPA allowed a prototypical process pattern to be identified, where patient's alliance and self-efficacy were linked by a temporal feedback-loop. Furthermore, therapist's stability over time in both mastery and clarification interventions was positively associated with better outcomes. Conclusions: TSPA is a statistical tool that sheds new light on temporal mechanisms of change. Through this approach, clinicians may gain insight into prototypical patterns of change in psychotherapy.

Monte Carlo modeling of polarized light propagation: Stokes vs Jones - Part I

This bipartite comparative study aims at inspecting the similarities and differences between the Jones and Stokes–Mueller formalisms when modeling polarized light propagation with numerical simulations of the Monte Carlo type. In this first part, we review the theoretical concepts that concern light propagation and detection with both pure and partially/totally unpolarized states. The latter case involving fluctuations, or “depolarizing effects,” is of special interest here: Jones and Stokes–Mueller are equally apt to model such effects and are expected to yield identical results. In a second, ensuing paper, empirical evidence is provided by means of numerical experiments, using both formalisms.

Utility of 30 and 60 minute cortisol samples after high-dose synthetic ACTH-1-24 injection in the diagnosis of adrenal insufficiency

BACKGROUND: In clinical practise the high dose ACTH stimulation test (HDT) is frequently used in the assessment of adrenal insufficiency (AI). However, there is uncertainty regarding optimal time-points and number of blood samplings. The present study compared the utility of a single cortisol value taken either 30 or 60 minutes after ACTH stimulation with the traditional interpretation of the HDT. METHODS: Retrospective analysis of 73 HDT performed at a single tertiary endocrine centre. Serum cortisol was measured at baseline, 30 and 60 minutes after intravenous administration of 250 µg synthetic ACTH1-24. Adrenal insufficiency (AI) was defined as a stimulated cortisol level <550 nmol/l. RESULTS: There were twenty patients (27.4%) who showed an insufficient rise in serum cortisol using traditional HDT criteria and were diagnosed to suffer from AI. There were ten individuals who showed insufficient cortisol values after 30 minutes, rising to sufficient levels at 60 minutes. All patients revealing an insufficient cortisol response result after 60 minutes also had an insufficient result after 30 minutes. The cortisol value taken after 30 minutes did not add incremental diagnostic value in any of the cases under investigation compared with the 60 minutes' sample. CONCLUSIONS: Based on the findings of the present analysis the utility of a cortisol measurement 30 minutes after high dose ACTH injection was low and did not add incremental diagnostic value to a single measurement after 60 minutes.

Tumour border configuration in colorectal cancer: proposal for an alternative scoring system based on the percentage of infiltrating margin.

AIMS Information on tumour border configuration (TBC) in colorectal cancer (CRC) is currently not included in most pathology reports, owing to lack of reproducibility and/or established evaluation systems. The aim of this study was to investigate whether an alternative scoring system based on the percentage of the infiltrating component may represent a reliable method for assessing TBC. METHODS AND RESULTS Two hundred and fifteen CRCs with complete clinicopathological data were evaluated by two independent observers, both 'traditionally' by assigning the tumours into pushing/infiltrating/mixed categories, and alternatively by scoring the percentage of infiltrating margin. With the pushing/infiltrating/mixed pattern method, interobserver agreement (IOA) was moderate (κ = 0.58), whereas with the percentage of infiltrating margins method, IOA was excellent (intraclass correlation coefficient of 0.86). A higher percentage of infiltrating margin correlated with adverse features such as higher grade (P = 0.0025), higher pT (P = 0.0007), pN (P = 0.0001) and pM classification (P = 0.0063), high-grade tumour budding (P < 0.0001), lymphatic invasion (P < 0.0001), vascular invasion (P = 0.0032), and shorter survival (P = 0.0008), and was significantly associated with an increased probability of lymph node metastasis (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS Information on TBC gives additional prognostic value to pathology reports on CRC. The novel proposed scoring system, by using the percentage of infiltrating margin, outperforms the 'traditional' way of reporting TBC. Additionally, it is reproducible and simple to apply, and can therefore be easily integrated into daily diagnostic practice.