Evaluating the surveillance for swine dysentery and progressive atrophic Rhinitis in closed multiplier herds using Scenario tree modelling

Background: The Swiss pig population enjoys a favourable health situation. To further promote this, the Pig Health Service (PHS) conducts a surveillance program in affiliated herds: closed multiplier herds with the highest PHS-health and hygiene status have to be free from swine dysentery and progressive atrophic rhinitis and are clinically examined four times a year, including laboratory testing. Besides, four batches of pigs per year are fattened together with pigs from other herds and checked for typical symptoms (monitored fattening groups (MF)). While costly and laborious, little was known about the effectiveness of the surveillance to detect an infection in a herd. Therefore, the sensitivity of the surveillance for progressive atrophic rhinitis and swine dysentery at herd level was assessed using scenario tree modelling, a method well established at national level. Furthermore, its costs and the time until an infection would be detected were estimated, with the final aim of yielding suggestions how to optimize surveillance. Results: For swine dysentery, the median annual surveillance sensitivity was 96.7 %, mean time to detection 4.4 months, and total annual costs 1022.20 Euro/herd. The median component sensitivity of active sampling was between 62.5 and 77.0 %, that of a MF between 7.2 and 12.7 %. For progressive atrophic rhinitis, the median surveillance sensitivity was 99.4 %, mean time to detection 3.1 months and total annual costs 842.20 Euro. The median component sensitivity of active sampling was 81.7 %, that of a MF between 19.4 and 38.6 %. Conclusions: Results indicate that total sensitivity for both diseases is high, while time to detection could be a risk in herds with frequent pig trade. From all components, active sampling had the highest contribution to the surveillance sensitivity, whereas that of MF was very low. To increase efficiency, active sampling should be intensified (more animals sampled) and MF abandoned. This would significantly improve sensitivity and time to detection at comparable or lower costs. The method of scenario tree modelling proved useful to assess the efficiency of surveillance at herd level. Its versatility allows adjustment to all kinds of surveillance scenarios to optimize sensitivity, time to detection and/or costs.

History of Atmospheric Lead Deposition Since 12,370 14C yr BP from a Peat Bog, Jura Mountains, Switzerland

A continuous record of atmospheric lead since 12,370 carbon-14 years before the present (14C yr BP) is preserved in a Swiss peat bog. Enhanced fluxes caused by climate changes reached their maxima 10,590 14C yr BP (Younger Dryas) and 823014C yr BP. Soil erosion caused by forest clearing and agricultural tillage increased lead deposition after 532014C yr BP. Increasing lead/scandium and decreasing lead-206/lead-207 beginning 3000 14C yr BP indicate the beginning of lead pollution from mining and smelting, and anthropogenic sources have dominated lead emissions ever since. The greatest lead flux (15.7 milligrams per square meter per year in A.D. 1979) was 1570 times the natural, background value (0.01 milligram per square meter per year from 8030 to 5320 14C yr BP).

Spindle cell oncocytoma of the adenohypophysis: report of a case with a 16-year follow-up

Spindle cell oncocytoma (SCO) is a recently described, rare neoplasm of the anterior pituitary. Clinically and radiologically simulating a non-functioning macroadenoma, its eponymous fusiform cells display a non-epithelial phenotype with conspicuous cytoplasmic accumulation of mitochondria. We report a case of SCO retrospectively identified in a biopsy specimen 16 years after transsphenoidal operation of a 48-year-old woman. Presenting symptoms were adynamia and transient decrease of visual acuity. Neuroimaging showed an isointense, enhancing, sellar-centered mass 1.8 cm in diameter without evidence of invasive growth. No postoperative adjuvant therapy was administered. The patient was left with panhypopituitarism, yet no recurrence was seen during follow-up. Initially diagnosed as a null cell adenoma of oncocytic type, repeat immunohistochemistry showed the characteristic coexpression of S100 protein, vimentin, and epithelial membrane antigen. Oncocytic granula stained intensely with antimitochondrial antibody 113-1, and were negative with the lysosomal marker CD68. Anterior pituitary hormones tested negative, and there was no evidence of neuroendocrine differentiation using antibodies to synaptophysin and chromogranin. Few cells stained for glial fibrillary acidic protein (GFAP). SCO has been proposed to represent a neoplasm of folliculo-stellate cells (FSCs). While the dynamic properties of the latter are incompletely characterized, and indeed no specific marker allows for their identification, overlapping features of SCO with look alikes, in particular pituicytoma, point to FSCs being a potential adult stem cell. The favorable outcome of the present case further argues for SCO to be considered a low-grade neoplasm. Moderate tumor size, lack of invasiveness, and low proliferation rate are likely predictors of benign behavior.

Correlation between the area of increased autofluorescence surrounding geographic atrophy and disease progression in patients with AMD

PURPOSE: To test the hypothesis that the extension of areas with increased fundus autofluorescence (FAF) outside atrophic patches correlates with the rate of spread of geographic atrophy (GA) over time in eyes with age-related macular degeneration (AMD). METHODS: The database of the multicenter longitudinal natural history Fundus Autofluorescence in AMD (FAM) Study was reviewed for patients with GA recruited through the end of August 2003, with follow-up examinations within at least 1 year. Only eyes with sufficient image quality and with diffuse patterns of increased FAF surrounding atrophy were chosen. In standardized digital FAF images (excitation, 488 nm; emission, >500 nm), total size and spread of GA was measured. The convex hull (CH) of increased FAF as the minimum polygon encompassing the entire area of increased FAF surrounding the central atrophic patches was quantified at baseline. Statistical analysis was performed with the Spearman's rank correlation coefficient (rho). RESULTS: Thirty-nine eyes of 32 patients were included (median age, 75.0 years; interquartile range [IQR], 67.8-78.9); median follow-up, 1.87 years; IQR, 1.43-3.37). At baseline, the median total size of atrophy was 7.04 mm2 (IQR, 4.20-9.88). The median size of the CH was 21.47 mm2 (IQR, 15.19-28.26). The median rate of GA progression was 1.72 mm2 per year (IQR, 1.10-2.83). The area of increased FAF around the atrophy (difference between the CH and the total GA size at baseline) showed a positive correlation with GA enlargement over time (rho=0.60; P=0.0002). CONCLUSIONS: FAF characteristics that are not identified by fundus photography or fluorescein angiography may serve as a prognostic determinant in advanced atrophic AMD. As the FAF signal originates from lipofuscin (LF) in postmitotic RPE cells and since increased FAF indicates excessive LF accumulation, these findings would underscore the pathophysiological role of RPE-LF in AMD pathogenesis.

CD4+ T-cell count increase in HIV-1-infected patients with suppressed viral load within 1 year after start of antiretroviral therapy

BACKGROUND: CD4+ T-cell recovery in patients with continuous suppression of plasma HIV-1 viral load (VL) is highly variable. This study aimed to identify predictive factors for long-term CD4+ T-cell increase in treatment-naive patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). METHODS: Treatment-naive patients in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study reaching two VL measurements <50 copies/ml >3 months apart during the 1st year of cART were included (n=1816 patients). We studied CD4+ T-cell dynamics until the end of suppression or up to 5 years, subdivided into three periods: 1st year, years 2-3 and years 4-5 of suppression. Multiple median regression adjusted for repeated CD4+ T-cell measurements was used to study the dependence of CD4+ T-cell slopes on clinical covariates and drug classes. RESULTS: Median CD4+ T-cell increases following VL suppression were 87, 52 and 19 cells/microl per year in the three periods. In the multiple regression model, median CD4+ T-cell increases over all three periods were significantly higher for female gender, lower age, higher VL at cART start, CD4+ T-cell <650 cells/microl at start of the period and low CD4+ T-cell increase in the previous period. Patients on tenofovir showed significantly lower CD4+ T-cell increases compared with stavudine. CONCLUSIONS: In our observational study, long-term CD4+ T-cell increase in drug-naive patients with suppressed VL was higher in regimens without tenofovir. The clinical relevance of these findings must be confirmed in, ideally, clinical trials or large, collaborative cohort projects but could influence treatment of older patients and those starting cART at low CD4+ T-cell levels.

A 5-year comparison of performance of sentinel and mandatory notification surveillance systems for measles in Switzerland

A sensitive, specific and timely surveillance is necessary to monitor progress towards measles elimination. We evaluated the performance of sentinel and mandatory-based surveillance systems for measles in Switzerland during a 5-year period by comparing 145 sentinel and 740 mandatory notified cases. The higher proportion of physicians who reported at least one case per year in the sentinel system suggests underreporting in the recently introduced mandatory surveillance for measles. Accordingly, the latter reported 2-36-fold lower estimates for incidence rates than the sentinel surveillance. However, these estimates were only 0.6-12-fold lower when we considered confirmed cases alone, which indicates a higher specificity of the mandatory surveillance system. In contrast, the sentinel network, which covers 3.5% of all outpatient consultations, detected only weakly and late a major national measles epidemic in 2003 and completely missed 2 of 10 cantonal outbreaks. Despite its better timeliness and greater sensitivity in case detection, the sentinel system, in the current situation of low incidence, is insufficient to perform measles control and to monitor progress towards elimination.

Incidence of bullous pemphigoid and pemphigus in Switzerland: a 2-year prospective study

BACKGROUND: Bullous pemphigoid (BP), pemphigus vulgaris (PV) and pemphigus foliaceus (PF) are autoimmune bullous diseases characterized by the presence of tissue-bound and circulating autoantibodies directed against disease-specific target antigens of the skin. Although rare, these diseases run a chronic course and are associated with significant morbidity and mortality. There are few prospective data on gender- and age-specific incidence of these disorders. OBJECTIVES: Our aims were: (i) to evaluate the incidence of BP and PV/PF in Swiss patients, as the primary endpoint; and (ii) to assess the profile of the patients, particularly for comorbidities and medications, as the secondary endpoint. METHODS: The protocol of the study was distributed to all dermatology clinics, immunopathology laboratories and practising dermatologists in Switzerland. All newly diagnosed cases of BP and pemphigus occurring between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2002 were collected. In total, 168 patients (73 men and 95 women) with these autoimmune bullous diseases, with a diagnosis based on clinical, histological and immunopathological criteria, were finally included. RESULTS: BP showed a mean incidence of 12.1 new cases per million people per year. Its incidence increased significantly after the age of 70 years, with a maximal value after the age of 90 years. The female/male ratio was 1.3. The age-standardized incidence of BP using the European population as reference was, however, lower, with 6.8 new cases per million people per year, reflecting the ageing of the Swiss population. In contrast, both PV and PF were less frequent. Their combined mean incidence was 0.6 new cases per million people per year. CONCLUSIONS; This is the first comprehensive prospective study analysing the incidence of autoimmune bullous diseases in an entire country. Our patient cohort is large enough to establish BP as the most frequent autoimmune bullous disease. Its incidence rate appears higher compared with other previous studies, most likely because of the demographic characteristics of the Swiss population. Nevertheless, based on its potentially misleading presentations, it is possible that the real incidence rate of BP is still underestimated. Based on its significant incidence in the elderly population, BP should deserve more public health concern.

Determination of carbohydrate-deficient transferrin in human serum by capillary zone electrophoresis: evaluation of assay performance and quality assurance over a 10-year period in the routine arena.

The performance of high-resolution CZE for determination of carbohydrate-deficient transferrin (CDT) in human serum based on internal and external quality data gathered over a 10-year period is reported. The assay comprises mixing of serum with a Fe(III) ion-containing solution prior to analysis of the iron saturated mixture in a dynamically double-coated capillary using a commercial buffer at alkaline pH. CDT values obtained with a human serum of a healthy individual and commercial quality control sera are shown to vary less than 10%. Values of a control from a specific lot were found to slowly decrease as function of time (less than 10% per year). Furthermore, due to unknown reasons, gradual changes in the monitored pattern around pentasialo-transferrin were detected, which limit the use of commercial control sera of the same lot to less than 2 years. Analysis of external quality control sera revealed correct classification of the samples over the entire 10-year period. Data obtained compare well with those of HPLC and CZE assays of other laboratories. The data gathered over a 10-year period demonstrate the robustness of the high-resolution CZE assay. This is the first account of a CZE-based CDT assay with complete internal and external quality assessment over an extended time period.

Clinical and radiographic outcomes at 2 years and the effect of tocilizumab discontinuation following sustained remission in the second and third year of the ACT-RAY study

OBJECTIVE To assess the efficacy and safety of tocilizumab (TCZ) plus methotrexate/placebo (MTX/PBO) over 2 years and the course of disease activity in patients who discontinued TCZ due to sustained remission. METHODS ACT-RAY was a double-blind 3-year trial. Patients with active rheumatoid arthritis despite MTX were randomised to add TCZ to ongoing MTX (add-on strategy) or switch to TCZ plus PBO (switch strategy). Using a treat-to-target approach, open-label conventional synthetic disease-modifying antirheumatic drugs (csDMARDs), other than MTX, were added from week 24 if Disease Activity Score in 28 joints based on erythrocyte sedimentation rate (DAS28-ESR) >3.2. Between weeks 52 and 104, patients in sustained clinical remission (DAS28-ESR <2.6 at two consecutive visits 12 weeks apart) discontinued TCZ and were assessed every 4 weeks for 1 year. If sustained remission was maintained, added csDMARDs, then MTX/PBO, were discontinued. RESULTS Of the 556 randomised patients, 76% completed year 2. Of patients entering year 2, 50.4% discontinued TCZ after achieving sustained remission and 5.9% achieved drug-free remission. Most patients who discontinued TCZ (84.0%) had a subsequent flare, but responded well to TCZ reintroduction. Despite many patients temporarily stopping TCZ, radiographic progression was minimal, with differences favouring add-on treatment. Rates of serious adverse events and serious infections per 100 patient-years were 12.2 and 4.4 in add-on and 15.0 and 3.7 in switch patients. In patients with normal baseline values, alanine aminotransferase elevations >3×upper limit of normal were more frequent in add-on (14.3%) versus switch patients (5.4%). CONCLUSIONS Treat-to-target strategies could be successfully implemented with TCZ to achieve sustained remission, after which TCZ was stopped. Biologic-free remission was maintained for about 3 months, but most patients eventually flared. TCZ restart led to rapid improvement. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER NCT00810199.

Accumulation rates and predominant atmospheric sources of natural and anthropogenic Hg and Pb on the Faroe Islands

A monolith representing 5420 14C yr of peat accumulation was collected from a blanket bog at Myrarnar, Faroe Islands. The maximum Hg concentration (498 ng/g at a depth of 4.5 cm) coincides with the maximum concentration of anthropogenic Pb (111 μg/g). Age dating of recent peat accumulation using 210Pb (CRS model) shows that the maxima in Hg and Pb concentrations occur at AD 1954 ± 2. These results, combined with the isotopic composition of Pb in that sample (206Pb/207Pb = 1.1720 ± 0.0017), suggest that coal burning was the dominant source of both elements. From the onset of peat accumulation (ca. 4286 BC) until AD 1385, the ratios Hg/Br and Hg/Se were constant (2.2 ± 0.5 × 10-4 and 8.5 ± 1.8 × 10-3, respectively). Since then, Hg/Br and Hg/Se values have increased, also reaching their maxima in AD 1954. The age date of the maximum concentrations of anthropogenic Hg and Pb in the Faroe Islands is consistent with a previous study of peat cores from Greenland and Denmark (dated using the atmospheric bomb pulse curve of 14C), which showed maximum concentrations in AD 1953. The average rate of atmospheric Hg accumulation from 1520 BC to AD 1385 was 1.27 ± 0.38 μg/m2/yr. The Br and Se concentrations and the background Hg/Br and Hg/Se ratios were used to calculate the average rate of natural Hg accumulation for the same period, 1.32 ± 0.36 μg/m2/yr and 1.34 ± 0.29 μg/m2/yr, respectively. These fluxes are similar to the preanthropogenic rates obtained using peat cores from Switzerland, southern Greenland, southern Ontario, Canada, and the northeastern United States. Episodic volcanic emissions and the continual supply of marine aerosols to the Faroe Islands, therefore, have not contributed significantly to the Hg inventory or the Hg accumulation rates, relative to these other areas. The maximum rate of Hg accumulation was 34 μg/m2/yr. The greatest fluxes of anthropogenic Hg accumulation calculated using Br and Se, respectively, were 26 and 31 μg/m2/yr. The rate of atmospheric Hg accumulation in 1998 (16 μg/m2/yr) is comparable to the values recently obtained by atmospheric transport modeling for Denmark, the Faroe Islands, and Greenland.

A Late-glacial and Holocene record of climatic change from a Swiss peat humification profile

Colorimetric measurements of alkaline extracts from two Swiss peat cores have provided a complete 14500-year-long record of peat humification, a proxy of effective precipitation. Peat from the cold Younger Dryas (11050–9550 cal. bc) was well preserved despite low levels of precipitation. A particularly dry period, peaking at c. 7100 cal. bc, is indicated by well-decomposed peat. Peat from c. 6750–4250 cal. bc shows a low degree of decomposition, indicating a wet bog surface despite relatively warm temperatures and therefore indicating high levels of precipitation. A sharp transition to higher levels of decomposition c. 4450–3750 cal. bc indicates a major transition to a drier bog surface. Subsequently, peat humification generally decreases towards the end of the deeper profile (c. cal. ad 1050), indicating a gradual return to wetter conditions. This gradual decrease is punctuated by periods of particularly low humification which appear to be due to shifts to higher levels of effective precipitation from c. 2500 to 1350 cal. bc, c. 1050 to 550 cal. bc, centered around 150 cal. bc, and from c. cal. ad 550 onwards. Anthropogenic influences appear to have affected peat humification at the site at least since the Middle Ages. This study indicates that humification in colder regions/time periods could be more affected by temperature than precipitation and vice versa.

Incidence and predictors of cutaneous manifestations during the early course of systemic sclerosis: a 10-year longitudinal study from the EUSTAR database.

OBJECTIVES To longitudinally map the onset and identify risk factors for skin sclerosis and digital ulcers (DUs) in patients with systemic sclerosis (SSc) from an early time point after the onset of Raynaud's phenomenon (RP) in the European Scleroderma Trials and Research (EUSTAR) cohort. METHODS 695 patients with SSc with a baseline visit within 1 year after RP onset were followed in the prospective multinational EUSTAR database. During the 10-year observation period, cumulative probabilities of cutaneous lesions were assessed with the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to evaluate risk factors. RESULTS The median modified Rodnan skin score (mRSS) peaked 1 year after RP onset, and was 15 points. The 1-year probability to develop an mRSS ≥2 in at least one area of the arms and legs was 69% and 25%, respectively. Twenty-five per cent of patients developed diffuse cutaneous involvement in the first year after RP onset. This probability increased to 36% during the subsequent 2 years. Only 6% of patients developed diffuse cutaneous SSc thereafter. The probability to develop DUs increased to a maximum of 70% at the end of the 10-year observation. The main factors associated with diffuse cutaneous SSc were the presence of anti-RNA polymerase III autoantibodies, followed by antitopoisomerase autoantibodies and male sex. The main factor associated with incident DUs was the presence of antitopoisomerase autoantibodies. CONCLUSION Early after RP onset, cutaneous manifestations exhibit rapid kinetics in SSc. This should be accounted for in clinical trials aiming to prevent skin worsening.

Mean arterial pressure and vasopressor load after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: Associations with one-year neurologic outcome

THE AIM OF THE STUDY There are limited data on blood pressure targets and vasopressor use following cardiac arrest. We hypothesized that hypotension and high vasopressor load are associated with poor neurological outcome following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). METHODS We included 412 patients with OHCA included in FINNRESUSCI study conducted between 2010 and 2011. Hemodynamic data and vasopressor doses were collected electronically in one, two or five minute intervals. We evaluated thresholds for time-weighted (TW) mean arterial pressure (MAP) and outcome by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis, and used multivariable analysis adjusting for co-morbidities, factors at resuscitation, an illness severity score, TW MAP and total vasopressor load (VL) to test associations with one-year neurologic outcome, dichotomized into either good (1-2) or poor (3-5) according to the cerebral performance category scale. RESULTS Of 412 patients, 169 patients had good and 243 patients had poor one-year outcomes. The lowest MAP during the first six hours was 58 (inter-quartile range [IQR] 56-61) mmHg in those with a poor outcome and 61 (59-63) mmHg in those with a good outcome (p<0.01), and lowest MAP was independently associated with poor outcome (OR 1.02 per mmHg, 95% CI 1.00-1.04, p=0.03). During the first 48h the median (IQR) of the TW mean MAP was 80 (78-82) mmHg in patients with poor, and 82 (81-83) mmHg in those with good outcomes (p=0.03) but in multivariable analysis TWA MAP was not associated with outcome. Vasopressor load did not predict one-year neurologic outcome. CONCLUSIONS Hypotension occurring during the first six hours after cardiac arrest is an independent predictor of poor one-year neurologic outcome. High vasopressor load was not associated with poor outcome and further randomized trials are needed to define optimal MAP targets in OHCA patients.