The Strauss and Carpenter Prognostic Scale in subjects clinically at high risk of psychosis

Objective:  To investigate the predictive value of the Strauss and Carpenter Prognostic Scale (SCPS) for transition to a first psychotic episode in subjects clinically at high risk (CHR) of psychosis. Method:  Two hundred and forty-four CHR subjects participating in the European Prediction of Psychosis Study were assessed with the SCPS, an instrument that has been shown to predict outcome in patients with schizophrenia reliably. Results:  At 18-month follow-up, 37 participants had made the transition to psychosis. The SCPS total score was predictive of a first psychotic episode (P < 0.0001). SCPS items that remained as independent predictors in the Cox proportional hazard model were as follows: most usual quality of useful work in the past year (P = 0.006), quality of social relations (P = 0.006), presence of thought disorder, delusions or hallucinations in the past year (P = 0.001) and reported severity of subjective distress in past month (P = 0.003). Conclusion:  The SCPS could make a valuable contribution to a more accurate prediction of psychosis in CHR subjects as a second-step tool. SCPS items assessing quality of useful work and social relations, positive symptoms and subjective distress have predictive value for transition. Further research should focus on investigating whether targeted early interventions directed at the predictive domains may improve outcomes.

Inflammation and atrial remodeling after a mountain marathon

Endurance athletes have an increased risk of atrial fibrillation. We performed a longitudinal study on elite runners of the 2010 Jungfrau Marathon, a Swiss mountain marathon, to determine acute effects of long-distance running on the atrial myocardium. Ten healthy male athletes were included and examined 9 to 1 week prior to the race, immediately after, and 1, 5, and 8 days after the race. Mean age was 34.9 ± 4.2 years, and maximum oxygen consumption was 66.8 ± 5.8 mL/kg*min. Mean race time was 243.9 ± 17.7 min. Electrocardiographic-determined signal-averaged P-wave duration (SAPWD) increased significantly after the race and returned to baseline levels during follow-up (128.7 ± 10.9 vs. 137.6 ± 9.8 vs. 131.5 ± 8.6 ms; P < 0.001). Left and right atrial volumes showed no significant differences over time, and there were no correlations of atrial volumes and SAPWD. Prolongation of the SAPWD was accompanied by a transient increase in levels of high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, proinflammatory cytokines, total leucocytes, neutrophil granulocytes, pro atrial natriuretic peptide and high-sensitivity troponin. In conclusion, marathon running was associated with a transient conduction delay in the atria, acute inflammation and increased atrial wall tension. This may reflect exercise-induced atrial myocardial edema and may contribute to atrial remodeling over time, generating a substrate for atrial arrhythmias.

Body-mass index and incidence of cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective observational studies

BACKGROUND: Excess bodyweight, expressed as increased body-mass index (BMI), is associated with the risk of some common adult cancers. We did a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the strength of associations between BMI and different sites of cancer and to investigate differences in these associations between sex and ethnic groups. METHODS: We did electronic searches on Medline and Embase (1966 to November 2007), and searched reports to identify prospective studies of incident cases of 20 cancer types. We did random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions of study-specific incremental estimates to determine the risk of cancer associated with a 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI. FINDINGS: We analysed 221 datasets (141 articles), including 282,137 incident cases. In men, a 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI was strongly associated with oesophageal adenocarcinoma (RR 1.52, p<0.0001) and with thyroid (1.33, p=0.02), colon (1.24, p<0.0001), and renal (1.24, p <0.0001) cancers. In women, we recorded strong associations between a 5 kg/m2 increase in BMI and endometrial (1.59, p<0.0001), gallbladder (1.59, p=0.04), oesophageal adenocarcinoma (1.51, p<0.0001), and renal (1.34, p<0.0001) cancers. We noted weaker positive associations (RR <1.20) between increased BMI and rectal cancer and malignant melanoma in men; postmenopausal breast, pancreatic, thyroid, and colon cancers in women; and leukaemia, multiple myeloma, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma in both sexes. Associations were stronger in men than in women for colon (p<0.0001) cancer. Associations were generally similar in studies from North America, Europe and Australia, and the Asia-Pacific region, but we recorded stronger associations in Asia-Pacific populations between increased BMI and premenopausal (p=0.009) and postmenopausal (p=0.06) breast cancers. INTERPRETATION: Increased BMI is associated with increased risk of common and less common malignancies. For some cancer types, associations differ between sexes and populations of different ethnic origins. These epidemiological observations should inform the exploration of biological mechanisms that link obesity with cancer.

Moving from sustainable management to sustainable governance of natural resources: The role of social learning processes in rural India, Bolivia and Mali

The present paper discusses a conceptual, methodological and practical framework within which the limitations of the conventional notion of natural resource management (NRM) can be overcome. NRM is understood as the application of scientific ecological knowledge to resource management. By including a consideration of the normative imperatives that arise from scientific ecological knowledge and submitting them to public scrutiny, ‘sustainable management of natural resources’ can be recontextualised as ‘sustainable governance of natural resources’. This in turn makes it possible to place the politically neutralising discourse of ‘management’ in a space for wider societal debate, in which the different actors involved can deliberate and negotiate the norms, rules and power relations related to natural resource use and sustainable development. The transformation of sustainable management into sustainable governance of natural resources can be conceptualised as a social learning process involving scientists, experts, politicians and local actors, and their corresponding scientific and non-scientific knowledges. The social learning process is the result of what Habermas has described as ‘communicative action’, in contrast to ‘strategic action’. Sustainable governance of natural resources thus requires a new space for communicative action aiming at shared, intersubjectively validated definitions of actual situations and the goals and means required for transforming current norms, rules and power relations in order to achieve sustainable development. Case studies from rural India, Bolivia and Mali explore the potentials and limitations for broadening communicative action through an intensification of social learning processes at the interface of local and external knowledge. Key factors that enable or hinder the transformation of sustainable management into sustainable governance of natural resources through social learning processes and communicative action are discussed.

BOLD correlates of EEG alpha phase-locking and the fMRI default mode network

Phase locking or synchronization of brain areas is a key concept of information processing in the brain. Synchronous oscillations have been observed and investigated extensively in EEG during the past decades. EEG oscillations occur over a wide frequency range. In EEG, a prominent type of oscillations is alpha-band activity, present typically when a subject is awake, but at rest with closed eyes. The spectral power of alpha rhythms has recently been investigated in simultaneous EEG/fMRI recordings, establishing a wide-range cortico-thalamic network. However, spectral power and synchronization are different measures and little is known about the correlations between BOLD effects and EEG synchronization. Interestingly, the fMRI BOLD signal also displays synchronous oscillations across different brain regions. These oscillations delineate so-called resting state networks (RSNs) that resemble the correlation patterns of simultaneous EEG/fMRI recordings. However, the nature of these BOLD oscillations and their relations to EEG activity is still poorly understood. One hypothesis is that the subunits constituting a specific RSN may be coordinated by different EEG rhythms. In this study we report on evidence for this hypothesis. The BOLD correlates of global EEG synchronization (GFS) in the alpha frequency band are located in brain areas involved in specific RSNs, e.g. the 'default mode network'. Furthermore, our results confirm the hypothesis that specific RSNs are organized by long-range synchronization at least in the alpha frequency band. Finally, we could localize specific areas where the GFS BOLD correlates and the associated RSN overlap. Thus, we claim that not only the spectral dynamics of EEG are important, but also their spatio-temporal organization.

Monopsony Power, Pay Structure and Training

Although interest in monopsonistic influences on labor market outcomes has revived in recent years, only a few empirical studies provide direct evidence on this topic. In this article, the authors analyze the effect of monopsony power on pay structure, using a direct measure of labor market thinness. The authors find evidence of monopsony power, as firms facing fewer local competitors offer lower wages to skilled labor and trainees, but not to unskilled labor. The findings have important implications for the economic theory of training, as most recent models assume monopsonistic pay-setting for skilled labor, but not for trainees.

Frailty and risk for heart failure in older adults: the health, aging, and body composition study

OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to assess the association between frailty and risk for heart failure (HF) in older adults. BACKGROUND Frailty is common in the elderly and is associated with adverse health outcomes. Impact of frailty on HF risk is not known. METHODS We assessed the association between frailty, using the Health ABC Short Physical Performance Battery (HABC Battery) and the Gill index, and incident HF in 2825 participants aged 70 to 79 years. RESULTS Mean age of participants was 74 ± 3 years; 48% were men and 59% were white. During a median follow up of 11.4 (7.1-11.7) years, 466 participants developed HF. Compared to non-frail participants, moderate (HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.08-1.71) and severe frailty (HR 1.88, 95% CI 1.02-3.47) by Gill index was associated with a higher risk for HF. HABC Battery score was linearly associated with HF risk after adjusting for the Health ABC HF Model (HR 1.24, 95% CI 1.13-1.36 per SD decrease in score) and remained significant when controlled for death as a competing risk (HR 1.30; 95% CI 1.00-1.55). Results were comparable across age, sex, and race, and in sub-groups based on diabetes mellitus or cardiovascular disease at baseline. Addition of HABC Battery scores to the Health ABC HF Risk Model improved discrimination (change in C-index, 0.014; 95% CI 0.018-0.010) and appropriately reclassified 13.4% (net-reclassification-improvement 0.073, 95% CI 0.021-0.125; P = .006) of participants (8.3% who developed HF and 5.1% who did not). CONCLUSIONS Frailty is independently associated with risk of HF in older adults.

Electrocardiographic PR interval and adverse outcomes in older adults: the Health, Aging, and Body Composition study

BACKGROUND The electrocardiographic PR interval increases with aging, differs by race, and is associated with atrial fibrillation (AF), pacemaker implantation, and all-cause mortality. We sought to determine the associations between PR interval and heart failure, AF, and mortality in a biracial cohort of older adults. METHODS AND RESULTS The Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) Study is a prospective, biracial cohort. We used multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to examine PR interval (hazard ratios expressed per SD increase) and 10-year risks of heart failure, AF, and all-cause mortality. Multivariable models included demographic, anthropometric, and clinical variables in addition to established cardiovascular risk factors. We examined 2722 Health ABC participants (aged 74±3 years, 51.9% women, and 41% black). We did not identify significant effect modification by race for the outcomes studied. After multivariable adjustment, every SD increase (29 ms) in PR interval was associated with a 13% greater 10-year risk of heart failure (95% confidence interval, 1.02-1.25) and a 13% increased risk of incident AF (95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.23). PR interval >200 ms was associated with a 46% increased risk of incident heart failure (95% confidence interval, 1.11-1.93). PR interval was not associated with increased all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS We identified significant relationships of PR interval to heart failure and AF in older adults. Our findings extend prior investigations by examining PR interval and associations with adverse outcomes in a biracial cohort of older men and women.

The importance of partnership factors and individual factors associated with absent or inconsistent condom use in heterosexuals: a cross-sectional study.

OBJECTIVES Decisions to use condoms are made within partnerships. We examined the associations between inconsistent or no condom use and individual and partnership characteristics. We also examined the relative importance of individual versus partnership factors. METHODS Cross-sectional study of heterosexual individuals enrolled from the sexually transmitted infections (STI) outpatient clinic in Amsterdam, the Netherlands, from May to August 2010. Participants completed a questionnaire about sexual behaviour with the last four partners in the preceding year. Participant and partnership factors associated with inconsistent or no condom use in steady and casual partnerships were identified. RESULTS 2144 individuals were included, reporting 6401 partnerships; 54.7% were female, the median age was 25 (IQR 22-30) years and 79.9% were Dutch. Inconsistent or no condom use occurred in 13.9% of 2387 steady partnerships and in 33.5% of 4014 casual partnerships. There was statistical evidence of associations between inconsistent condom use in steady partnerships and ethnic concordance, longer duration, higher number of sex acts, practising anal sex, and sex-related drug use. In casual partnerships, associations were found with having an older partner, ethnic concordance, longer duration, higher number of sex acts, anal sex, sex-related drug use, ongoing partnerships and concurrency. In multivariable models, partnership factors explained 50.9% of the variance in steady partnerships and 70.1% in casual partnerships compared with 10.5% and 15.4% respectively for individual factors. CONCLUSIONS Among heterosexual STI clinic attendees in Amsterdam, partnership factors are more important factors related with inconsistent condom use than characteristics of the individual.

Changes in skill variety predict job satisfaction and psychosomatic complaints

Purpose Skill variety in terms of opportunities for utilizing different skills is an important element of job design; it is associated with well-being and health, but most pertinent research is cross-sectional. Positive associations with well-being, and with intellectual flexibility, have been shown longitudinally, but these studies focus on levels of skill variety at time 1 and do not use changes in skill variety as a predictor. We expect changes in skill variety to be associated with well-being in terms of higher job satisfaction and fewer psychosomatic complaints. Design/Methodology Skill variety, job satisfaction, and psychosomatic complaints were assessed in 2005, 2006, 2007, and 2010 (N = 317 young employees). Data were analyzed using latent growth modeling. Results Skill variety decreased over the first three years after labor market entry. Initial levels of skill variety predicted higher job satisfaction in 2010. Steeper decreases in skill variety from 2005 to 2007 predicted lower levels of job satisfaction and more psychosomatic complaints three years later. Limitations This longitudinal study used only self-report. Research/Practical Implications Our results extend the often found association between challenging work content and job satisfaction in terms of a) showing it for young employees, b) longitudinally, c) not only for initial level but also for changes, and d) for psychosomatic complaints; they underscore the importance of maintaining a high level of challenging work content beyond the initial phase by enriching work as routine increases. Originality/Value Compared to the few existing longitudinal studies, we focus on changes and their relations with well-being.

The changing values of children and preferences regarding family size in south Africa

This study extends the ongoing studies on values of children and intergenerational relations into an African context with the following key questions: To what extent can the structure of values of children (VOC) identified in previous studies be found in South Africa and what are women's preferences regarding the size of small, large, and ideal families? The sample consisted of three cohorts of Black South African women from the Limpopo Province. Factor analyses showed that the dimensions of VOC found in South Africa are a conglomeration of different values. Identified dimensions were Social/Emotional and Traditional/Utilitarian with respect to reasons for wanting children. Regarding reasons for not wanting children, Child as Source of Constraints and Constraints to Have a Child were identified. Intergenerational comparisons showed variations in the importance of value of children dimensions and in preferences regarding family size. Values of children of younger mothers were related to the number of children these women had and to their preferences regarding family size. The findings are discussed within the changing socio-political context of South Africa.

Swiss Shock: Minaret Rejection, European Values, and the Challenge of Tolerant neutrality

In 2009 Switzerland, for long an apparent beacon of European toleration and neutrality, voted to ban the erection of minarets. Internal religious matters are normally dealt with at the regional or local level – not at the level of the Swiss national parliament, although the state does seek to ensure good order and peaceful relations between different faith communities. Indeed, the freedom of these communities to believe and function publicly is enshrined in law. However, as a matter of national policy, now constitutionally embedded, one religious group, the Muslim group, is not permitted to build their distinctive religious edifice, the minaret. Switzerland may have joined the rest of Europe with respect to engaging the challenge of Islamic presence to European identity and values, but the rejection of a symbol of the presence of one faith – in this case, Islamic – by a society that is otherwise predominantly secular, pluralist, and of Christian heritage, poses significant concerns. How and why did this happen? What are the implications? This paper will discuss some of the issues involved, concluding the ban is by no means irreversible. Tolerant neutrality may yet again be a leitmotif of Swiss culture and not just of foreign policy.

The role of brand marketing in snowboarding: A comparative study of Switzerland and New Zealand

Introduction: Brands play an essential role in the organizational structure of snowboarding by sponsoring athletes, arranging events, contributing to product development and developing long-term partnerships with other key actors. However, the specialities of their role in scene sports, such as creating identities, networking and brand marketing strategies, have not been extensively researched. This study aims to provide an analysis of the function of brands within the snowboarding subculture by comparing how the sport is organized in Switzerland and New Zealand. Sociological theories of subcultures (Hitzler & Niederbacher, 2010) and social networks (Stegbauer, 2008) are used to defi ne the structures of the sport, whereas marketing and branding theories (Adjouri & Stastny, 2006) help to understand the role of the brands. Snowboarding will be defi ned as an alternative sports subculture based on characteristics such as aesthetics, adventure and new resources of performance (Schwier, 2006). Such a defi nition also begs for a novel form of analyzing its organization. Unlike more conventional structures, the organization of snowboarding allows a variety of actors to get involved in leading the sport. By portraying and encouraging differentiated identities and lifestyles, athletes provide a space for other actors to fi nd their place within the sport (Wheaton, 2005). According to Stegbauers network theory, individual actors are able to obtain high positions and defi ne their identity depending on their ties to actors and networks within the subculture (Stegbauer, 2008). For example, social capital, contacts within the sport and insider knowledge on subculture-related information enable actors to get closer to the core (Hitzler & Niederbacher, 2010). Actors who do not have close networks and allies within the subculture are less likely to engage successfully in the culture, whether as an individual or as a commercial actor (Thorpe, 2011). This study focuses on the organizational structure of snowboarding by comparing the development of the sport in Switzerland and New Zealand. An analysis of snowboarding in two nations with diverse cultures and economic systems allows a further defi nition of the structural organization of the sport and explains how brands play an important role in the sport. Methods: The structural organization of the sport will be analyzed through an ethnographic approach, using participant observation at various leading events in Switzerland (Freestyle.ch, European Open) and New Zealand (World Heli Challenge, New Zealand Open, New Zealand Winter Games). The data is analyzed using grounded theory (Glaser & Strauss 1967) and gives an overview of the actors that are playing an important role in the local development of snowboarding. Participant observation was also used as a tool to get inside the sport culture and opened up the possibility to make over 40 semi-structured qualitative expert interviews with international core actors from 11 countries. Obtaining access to one actor as a partner early on helped to get inside the local sport culture. The ‘snowball effect’ allowed the researcher to acquire access, build trust and conduct interviews with experts within the core scene. All the interviewed actors have a direct infl uence on the sport in one or both countries, which permit a cross-analysis. The data of the interviews was evaluated through content analysis (Mayring 2010). The two methods together provided suffi cient data to analyze the organizational structure and discuss the role of brand marketing within snowboarding. Results: An actors mapping by means of a center-periphery framework has identifi ed fi ve main core groups: athletes, media representatives, brand-marketing managers, resort managers and event organizers. In both countries the same grouping of actors were found. Despite possessing different and frequently multiple roles and responsibilities, core actors appear to have a strong common identifi cation as ‘snowboarders’, are considered to be part of the organizational elite of the sport and tend to advocate similar goals. The author has found that brands in Switzerland tend to have a larger impact on the broader snowboarding culture due to a number of factors discussed below. Due to a larger amount of snowboarders and stronger economic power in Europe, snowboarders are making attempts to differentiate themselves from other winter sports, while competing with each other to develop niche markets. In New Zealand, on the other hand, the smaller market enables more cooperation and mutual respect within snowboarders. Further they are more closely linked to other winter sports and are satisfi ed with being lumped together. In both countries, brands have taken up the role of supporting young athletes, organizing competitions and feeding media with subculture-related content. Brands build their image and identity through the collaboration with particular athletes who can represent the values of the brand. Local and global communities with similar lifestyles and interests are being built around brands that share a common vision of the sport. The dominance of brands in snowboarding has enabled them with the power to organize and rule the sport through its fan base and supporters. Brands were defi ned by interviewees as independent institutions led by insiders who know the codes and symbols of the sport and were given trust and credibility. The brands identify themselves as the engines of the sport by providing the equipment, opportunities for athletes to get exposure, allowing media to get exclusive information on activities, events and sport-related stories. Differences between the two countries are more related to the economic system. While Switzerland is well integrated in the broader European market, New Zealand’s geographical isolation and close proximity to Australia tends to limit its market. Further, due to different cultural lifestyles, access to resorts and seasonal restrictions, to name a few, the amount of people practicing winter sports in New Zealand is much smaller than in Switzerland. However, this also presents numerous advantages. For example, the short southern hemisphere winter season in New Zealand enables them to attract international sports athletes, brands and representatives in a period when Europe and North America is in summer. Further, the unique snow conditions in New Zealand and majestic landscape is popular for attracting world renowned photo- and cinematographers. Another advantage is the less populated network as it provides the opportunity for individuals to gain easier access to the core of the sport, obtain diverse positions and form a unique identity and market. In Switzerland, on the other hand, the snowboarding network is dense with few positions available for the taking. Homegrown brands with core recognition are found in both countries. It was found that the Swiss brands tend to have a larger impact on the market, whereas in New Zealand, the sport is more dependent on import products by foreign brands. Further, athletes, events and resorts in New Zealand are often dependent on large brand sponsorships from abroad such as from brand headquarters in the Unites States. Thus, due to its location in the centre of Europe, Swiss brands can take advantage of brands which are closer in proximity and culture to sponsor athletes and events. In terms of media coverage, winter sports in New Zealand tend to have a minor coverage and tradition in local mass media, which leads to less exposure, recognition and investment into the sport. This is also related to how snowboarding is more integrated into other winter sports in New Zealand. Another difference is the accessibility of the ski resort by the population. While in Switzerland the resorts are mostly being visited by day-travelers, ‘weekend warriors’ and holiday makers, the location of the resorts in New Zealand make it diffi cult to visit for one day. This is in part due to the fact that Swiss ski resorts and villages are usually the same location and are accessible through public transportation, while the ski resorts in New Zealand have been built separately from the villages. Further, the villages have not been built to accommodate to high tourist arrivals. Thus, accommodation and food facilities are limited and there is a lack of public transportation to the resorts. Discussion: The fi ndings show that networks and social relations combined with specifi c knowledge on scene-related attributes are crucial in obtaining opportunities within the sport. Partnerships as well as competition between these different actors are necessary for core acceptance, peer credibility and successful commercial interests. Brands need to maintain effective marketing strategies and identities which incorporate subcultural forms of behavior and communication. In order to sustain credibility from its fans, athletes and other snowboarding actors, brands need to maintain their insider status through social networks and commercial branding strategies. The interaction between all actors is a reciprocated process, where social capital, networks and identities are being shared. While the overall structure of snowboard subcultures in Europe and New Zealand are similar, there are some distinct characteristics which make each one unique. References Adjouri, N. & Stastny, P. (2006). Sport-Branding: Mit Sport-Sponsoring zum Markenerfolg. Wiesbaden: Gabler. Glaser, B. & Strauss, K. (1967). The discovery of grounded theory: Strategies for qualitative research. Chicago: Aldine. Hebdige, D. (2009). Subculture; The meaning of style. New York: Routledge. Hitzler, R. & Niederbacher, A. (2010). Leben in Szenen: Formen juveniler Vergemeinschaftung heute. Wiesbaden: Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. Mayring, P. (2010). Qualitative Inhaltsanalyse: Grundlagen und Techniken. Weinheim: Beltz. Schwier, J. (2006). Repräsentationen des Trendsports. Jugendliche Bewegungskulturen, Medien und Marketing. In: Gugutzer, R. (Hrsg.). body turn. Perspektiven der Soziologie des Körpers und des Sports. Bielefeld: transcript (S. 321-340). Stegbauer, C. (2008). Netzwerkanalyse und Netzwerktheorie. Ein neues Paradigma in den Sozialwissenschaften. Wiesbaden: VS Verlag für Sozialwissenschaften. Thorpe, H. (2011). Snowboarding bodies in theory and practice. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. Wheaton, B. (2005). Understanding lifestyle sports; consumption, identity and difference. New York: Routledge.

Coalition Structures and Policy Change in a Consensus Democracy

This paper studies the relation between coalition structures in policy processes and policy change. While different factors such as policy images, learning processes, external events, or venue shopping are important to explain policy change, coalition structures within policy processes are often neglected. However, policy change happens as a result of negotiations and coordination among coalitions within policy processes. The paper analyzes how conflict, collaboration, and power relations among coalitions of actors influence policy change in an institutional context of a consensus democracy. Empirically, I rely on a Qualitative Comparative Analysis to conduct a cross-sector comparison of the 11 most important policy processes in Switzerland between 2001 and 2006. Coalition structures with low conflict and strong collaboration among coalitions as well as structures with dominant coalitions and weak collaboration both facilitate major policy change. Competing coalitions that are separated by strong conflict but still collaborate strongly produce policy outputs that are close to the status quo.